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Old 29th May 2011, 08:57   #16
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Default re: How will the market change if Petrol and Diesel prices sky-rocket

Isn't this good?

Car are getting sold in terms of lacks of units per month. Where are they going? They are all coming to roads. Parking space has been such a problem.

Even highways are full of traffic. Come near a toll plaza and you see 1-2 KMS of line.

My point is, it is high time we stop flooding of roads with cars especially when our roads and cities cannot take it. I have stopped using car mainly because of the impatience that has started resulting due to erratic traffic and now add high fuel costs. I have started using bike with whatever disadvantage that it has compared to cars.

Imagine where we would go if we keep getting 1 lac cars every month on the roads. Where.
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Old 29th May 2011, 11:01   #17
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Default re: How will the market change if Petrol and Diesel prices sky-rocket

No bull on conspiracy theories but letís face it diesel is cheaper cause itís subsidized for commercial vehicles. There must be a lobby profiting from the electric motor movement. Hence, instead of removing the subsidy diesel for private autos and balancing the petrol prices the Govt is killing the petrol car. As, a nation we donít have enough coal to power up all our homes let alone the automobile. Just to hammer the point home on a long term the electric motor industry is going to be more polluting and expensive than the internal combustion industry. The wise now donít even favor the nuclear power lobby in India (yes am taking a jab at all the people protesting the planting of nuclear power stations)

There are alternatives in real time think ethanol for now and drop the prices on petrol.
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Old 29th May 2011, 11:51   #18
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Default re: How will the market change if Petrol and Diesel prices sky-rocket

I have already accepted that it is just a matter of time before it becomes 100 bucks a litre. It was 9bucks when I started driving in '86. Today, after 25 years it stands at 67Rs odd. So, only a matter of time before it hits 100.

Infact if higher prices makes us use fuel judiciously, shift to office-cabs/public tansportation, drive better etc, that is a good thing because then I reckon we would have the fuel around for a longer time and possibly my son would be able to have the fun of driving a petrol-powered car when he gets his license in another 14 years.

For those who want to stretch every drop of fuel further, one way is to drive better - stick to city speed limits, drive proactively (if you see a signal turning light further ahead, no point in revving and braking a few seconds later - instead coast to the stop in top gear). And having tried this for 6 months, I can say that it indeed works - from the 12kmpl that I get normally on my car, I was able to get 14kmpl (100% a/c) in Chennai by driving better, which is a 16% increase in efficiency.

Still, I am not moving to diesel because 1) I don't drive enough to necessitate one and 2) I love my Baleno too much to give it away to save a few bucks on fuel.

Last edited by supremeBaleno : 29th May 2011 at 11:52.
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Old 29th May 2011, 11:53   #19
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Default re: How will the market change if Petrol and Diesel prices sky-rocket

Well, the recent hike to Rs70.7 was what did it for me. I've switched to my bike from the car (even in the summer) and also hypermiling (Fuel economy-maximizing behaviors - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia).

Thus, I've now reduced my top speed to 45 kmph, generally doing 40kmph when traffic permits, reducing braking by atleast 50-70%, coasting to red lights, switching off engine for stops > 15 secs, rolling down flyovers in top gear without throttle, etc. In turn, I feel less stressed out and reach home feeling safer. I make sure I get out of the way of all speeding vehicles lest they use their road-rage to harm me.

I'm sure people driving cars would get significant FE from their motors with hypermiling although I don't see why diesel car owners would care at a Rs30 difference in pricing.

Last edited by hellmet : 29th May 2011 at 11:57.
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Old 29th May 2011, 12:34   #20
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Default re: How will the market change if Petrol and Diesel prices sky-rocket

I cannot digest the fact that people who are enjoying a 10-20% hike in their salary every year cannot handle a 10% hike in petrol/Diesel prices.

It is only the poverty /on the poverty line people who are worst hit. Imagine a guy driving a taxi has to bear the brunt of a 10 rupee diesel hike.
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Old 29th May 2011, 12:45   #21
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Default re: How will the market change if Petrol and Diesel prices sky-rocket

Petrol & diesel are relatively price inelastic - means that demand does not go up or down in proportion to price fall/rise.
BUT, this is subject to not having substitutes, and the cost of switching being high even if there were substitutes.
Once the price of petrol rises beyond a point (as a proportion of income) people will start looking for substitutes. Some already have. And if the price continues to rise, then the cost of switching will seem insignificant. this is when alternative technologies will start gaining ground over petrol/diesel.

Personally, I think the rise in prices of petrol hurt the working classes a lot more than the better off upper middle classes. The working class sees the bike/scooter as an essential mode of transport. And their incomes are lower. And the substitute is ... public transport?? Bicycle?? For a vast majority, using public transport (and the associated time factor) is opportunity cost. And petrol price is a larger proportion of income. Car owners like us can pool, start using bikes, go in A/C bus, use office cab ... spare a thought to the office boy for whom the TVS XL-Super is his lifeline. And he earns 10K a month and supports a family.
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Old 29th May 2011, 12:50   #22
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Default re: How will the market change if Petrol and Diesel prices sky-rocket

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Originally Posted by vinaydas View Post
I cannot digest the fact that people who are enjoying a 10-20% hike in their salary every year cannot handle a 10% hike in petrol/Diesel prices.

It is only the poverty /on the poverty line people who are worst hit. Imagine a guy driving a taxi has to bear the brunt of a 10 rupee diesel hike.
It is not just that. Many commodities, consumer goods are linked to fuel in India.
So it accounts for increase in everything. Check out milk prices, for example, (normal milk flavor) I think it will soon touch 30 per litre.
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Old 29th May 2011, 13:03   #23
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Default re: How will the market change if Petrol and Diesel prices sky-rocket

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As, a nation we donít have enough coal to power up all our homes let alone the automobile. Just to hammer the point home on a long term the electric motor industry is going to be more polluting and expensive than the internal combustion industry.
All electricity is not produced from coal. Coal accounts for around 50% of India's commercial power, I think. And around 35-40% of total power. The rest comes from Hydro, Firewood, Oil, Gas etc. Even assuming all the vehicles become electric & the additional power needed for powering these vehicles come from Hydrocarbons (oil, gas), even then it would be better. Hydrocarbons can be burnt much more efficiently in a powerplant than in a car. Pollution can be better combated in a powerplant than on roads.
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The wise now donít even favor the nuclear power lobby in India (yes am taking a jab at all the people protesting the planting of nuclear power stations)
Everyone wants nuclear power, but they don't want the plant to be in their backyards. That's the problem.

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There are alternatives in real time think ethanol for now and drop the prices on petrol.
If ethanol becomes as common as petrol/diesel, then food prices would skyrocket because ethanol is made from stuff otherwise used as food.
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Old 29th May 2011, 13:14   #24
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Default re: How will the market change if Petrol and Diesel prices sky-rocket

More price hike = high inflation and I do not see +30% hike of salaries y-o-y basis. Thus impact will be felt. It is crazy to find your monthly gas expenditure bursting off its seams at 50%. The Government still has 3 comfortable years and thus atleast for next two years you can assume the prices to increase before election winning will become important and things will be temporarily be controlled.

It is funny that HP was in profit this year by losing crores of money every day while fuel is subsidized (diesel) and petrol was subdued (petrol) for some state elections.

I used to burn rubber every weekend but the long trips are not limited and as family we plan our outings so that everyone can be together (warm fuzzy feeling leading to need of a bigger vehicle maybe a diesel SUV). This coming from someone who's comfortable with life. I shudder to think about the plight of tight budgeted families who now will feel the brunt of budget this year. Government has a tight squeeze on a common man currently.

Someone pointed out that people buy Gold no matter at what price point. My dear friend, its an asset that appreciates in value and not a commodity that has inflation.

It rattles my brain as to why Indian Government is playing all along with West to project a gloomy picture. If US and Europe cut down on their emissions by 30% the complete world will have enough oil and carbon emission to play along. Read this.

India has abundant CNG and it has the financial muscle to buyout other international gas reserves. Alternatives should be strictly implemented in West first and then they should preach others. Our petroleum ministry should be transparent, if common man is subjected to direct price/barrel of oil then oil refineries that are set using tax payer's money should churn out and become Non profit organizations rather than minting money.
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Old 29th May 2011, 14:01   #25
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Default re: How will the market change if Petrol and Diesel prices sky-rocket

I think if the cost of petrol were to hit a 100 re per litre most car cos would simply sell their petrol line ups with alternate fuels like cng and lpg.Don't think car sales would come down just because of high fuel prices as long alternate fuel is available.
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Old 29th May 2011, 14:32   #26
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Default re: How will the market change if Petrol and Diesel prices sky-rocket

Petrol driven small Car market will see a slump for sure in the coming months.

Entry level petrol car buyers may convince themselves to extend to live with their two wheelers.

Two wheeler market will also see a slump. Some may be encouraged to use cycles and hence the Indian petrol price sky rocketing brings some green sense at roads aswell
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Old 29th May 2011, 14:55   #27
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Default re: How will the market change if Petrol and Diesel prices sky-rocket

Another Irony
Even today gasoline/petrol is available at all developed nations (USA UK Germany etc) at approx Rs42 (done the math). This figure is with their high cost of production, transportation, and labour + 25% taxes. Whereas in our country where petrol should be cheaper it is actually costly because of filthy 110 to 130% of taxes that are collected at the name of development (namely CWG, 2G, 3G etc etc the list is long.
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Old 29th May 2011, 15:23   #28
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Default Re: How will the market change if Petrol and Diesel prices sky-rocket

I am guessing if the case of both petrol and diesel cost rise up ilke what is mentioned. The new car sales will just come to aroun 50%.

Lot is being said about the LPG and CNG, I am just guessing that its high time even thier costs will sky rocket, dont forget LPG is a by product of the crude oil and currently its the crude oil price rise that is driving all the price increase in the petrol and diesel cars.

About deregulating diesel, its hightimes that will become a reality. I mean you have to accept it govt has already been in talks and according to last news taht I went thro they are in the final stages of deregulating the costs.

Even Diesel vehicles will meet the slump equally, not just petrol vehicls
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Old 29th May 2011, 15:37   #29
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Default Re: How will the market change if Petrol and Diesel prices sky-rocket

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Originally Posted by nishant kar View Post
Another Irony
Even today gasoline/petrol is available at all developed nations (USA UK Germany etc) at approx Rs42 (done the math).
Price of Petrol in UK is on average £1.31 per litre. At current exchange rates, works out to Rs.87 per litre. (Source: www.petrolprices.com) Are you taking PPP into account to quote your figure?

Cheapest Gasoline price in the USA right now is $3.70 per gallon - works out to Rs. 42.8 per litre.

Please remember that Petrol is way costlier in EU than in USA.
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Old 29th May 2011, 15:54   #30
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Default Re: How will the market change if Petrol and Diesel prices sky-rocket

People must travel. Bangalore roads are already chock-a-block with two wheelers. Any increase in fuel prices can only make it worse with bus fares already not very economical and service erratic. For example in my area, it costs me Rs10 on regular non-A/c bus to travel some 3-4 kms and for Volvo it's double of that. Any increase in fare is going to make people opting for bikes in hoards. Hero Honda, Bajaj, TVS etc are going to be biggest beneficiary of fuel price hikes.

Last edited by vasoo : 29th May 2011 at 15:56.
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