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Old 29th May 2011, 16:33   #31
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Default Re: How will the market change if Petrol and Diesel prices sky-rocket

When ever there is a spike in crude oil prices the whole world including india starts talking about electric cars, hybrids, alternative fuels. But then a few months later crude prices soften just a little and all of that is forgiven.

The last time world crude prices crossed $125/ barrel in 2008-2009, there were reports of mahindra testing a scorpio Hybrid. I even remember reading an article on it on either overdrive or autocar. There was talk of tata doing serious R&D on hybrids and full electric vehicles starting from the electric Ace. That was the around when the Civic hybrid was launched.

So if prices remain high then these projects will see the light of day sooner rather than later. And the sooner hybrids and alternative fuel vehicles hit the market the sooner we will be less vulnerable to crude price rises, as our consumption of oil will have decreased without having to cut back on our driving.

So if petrol gets to 100Rs / litre by next year, then yes i personally will suffer probably for the next 3-4 years. But then when the time comes for me to buy a new car and the price of petrol is still 100 rs. litre then for sure my next purchase will be a hybrid. And by then (2014-2015) i am sure there will be a few compact hybrids on offer from auto makers.
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Old 29th May 2011, 16:34   #32
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Default Re: How will the market change if Petrol and Diesel prices sky-rocket

Nice topic.

Well things will change. I suspect a large section of people will move to car pooling or 2 wheelers. Lesser of those short distance trips in cars, driving more smoothly, less junk stored in the car. Those who don't have the option of car pooling/bikes will probably do more to avoid peak traffic (say leave earlier in the morning when it's cooler and there's less traffic). Consumption will surely decrease. It should be good for our environment.

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The wise now don’t even favor the nuclear power lobby in India (yes am taking a jab at all the people protesting the planting of nuclear power stations)
Mods, sorry for going but I needed to clear this.

Well, I thought the same till my cousin tripped me. Did you know the Areva reactors being imported from France at a cost of 20crores/MW haven't been deployed anywhere in the world (Indian tech already in use costs about 7crores/MW & solar power comes to about 12crores/MW)? Do you know that those reactors haven't been given safety clearance by US,UK and other major western+safety concerned nations? So basically we will be guinea pigs for the western countries. Did you know that Jaitapur (where the world's largest nuclear plant of 9600MW is being planned) is a seismic zone 4 region? If Japan, the most prepared country in this world to deal with earthquakes & Tsunami, couldn't prevent it, believe me, we MOST definitely cannot. And the size of tragedy struck power plant was only a few hundred MWs. Do you know that if a Japan like tragedy were to strike this Jaitapur power plant (when complete) entire Maharashtra state + some others might not be safe to live? The government is pushing for it to please some western countries and of course there will be kickbacks and some ministers will get the chance to make themselves wealthier by thousands of crores (plant deal valued at about 2L crores). I am sorry but I (and thousands others) are not willing to put at risk the health and wealth of our entire country here.

If you are interested in discussing more, send me an offline message or something. I will be happy to discuss.

End of my discussion.
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Old 29th May 2011, 17:51   #33
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Default Re: How will the market change if Petrol and Diesel prices sky-rocket

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Originally Posted by asr245 View Post
Nice topic.

Well things will change. I suspect a large section of people will move to car pooling or 2 wheelers. Lesser of those short distance trips in cars, driving more smoothly, less junk stored in the car. Those who don't have the option of car pooling/bikes will probably do more to avoid peak traffic (say leave earlier in the morning when it's cooler and there's less traffic). Consumption will surely decrease. It should be good for our environment.



Mods, sorry for going but I needed to clear this.

Well, I thought the same till my cousin tripped me. Did you know the Areva reactors being imported from France at a cost of 20crores/MW haven't been deployed anywhere in the world (Indian tech already in use costs about 7crores/MW & solar power comes to about 12crores/MW)? Do you know that those reactors haven't been given safety clearance by US,UK and other major western+safety concerned nations? So basically we will be guinea pigs for the western countries. Did you know that Jaitapur (where the world's largest nuclear plant of 9600MW is being planned) is a seismic zone 4 region? If Japan, the most prepared country in this world to deal with earthquakes & Tsunami, couldn't prevent it, believe me, we MOST definitely cannot. And the size of tragedy struck power plant was only a few hundred MWs. Do you know that if a Japan like tragedy were to strike this Jaitapur power plant (when complete) entire Maharashtra state + some others might not be safe to live? The government is pushing for it to please some western countries and of course there will be kickbacks and some ministers will get the chance to make themselves wealthier by thousands of crores (plant deal valued at about 2L crores). I am sorry but I (and thousands others) are not willing to put at risk the health and wealth of our entire country here.

If you are interested in discussing more, send me an offline message or something. I will be happy to discuss.

End of my discussion.
Thank you for the heads up. I am not for low end goods being dumped into India. I was taking a jab at all who say an absolute no to nuke power in India.
Even in a country like Japan the protesters were made to see the light as the country can not survive without nuclear power plants. Simple, it is a necessity but then and did not want to offend anyone.

p.s - Electric cars just don't make sense in the long run. Whoever agrees please give me a
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Old 29th May 2011, 18:05   #34
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Default Re: How will the market change if Petrol and Diesel prices sky-rocket

Petrol hitting Rs.100 would be a boon, because that will mean much fewer cars on the roads, as many would take to public transport / bikes. However the likely best case scenarios would be, people installing CNG kits for their guzzlers, and since CNG is locally available, we might end up saving a lot on oil-pool deficit nationally.

Last edited by Fornax : 29th May 2011 at 18:06.
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Old 29th May 2011, 18:05   #35
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Default Re: How will the market change if Petrol and Diesel prices sky-rocket

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All electricity is not produced from coal. Coal accounts for around 50% of India's commercial power, I think. And around 35-40% of total power. The rest comes from Hydro, Firewood, Oil, Gas etc. Even assuming all the vehicles become electric & the additional power needed for powering these vehicles come from Hydrocarbons (oil, gas), even then it would be better. Hydrocarbons can be burnt much more efficiently in a powerplant than in a car. Pollution can be better combated in a powerplant than on roads.

Everyone wants nuclear power, but they don't want the plant to be in their backyards. That's the problem.



If ethanol becomes as common as petrol/diesel, then food prices would skyrocket because ethanol is made from stuff otherwise used as food.
1)sir I opine that the new internal combustion engines a efficient enough to keep the carbon dioxides at minimal and lets charge for the emissions as tax.
The oil and gas can be put to better use as they are really expensive.
2)

3)Not necessarily Brasil is an example. I know it is tough but not impossible to work things out.
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Old 29th May 2011, 21:49   #36
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Default Re: How will the market change if Petrol and Diesel prices sky-rocket

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Originally Posted by KiloAlpha View Post
Price of Petrol in UK is on average £1.31 per litre. At current exchange rates, works out to Rs.87 per litre. (Source: www.petrolprices.com) Are you taking PPP into account to quote your figure?

Cheapest Gasoline price in the USA right now is $3.70 per gallon - works out to Rs. 42.8 per litre.

Please remember that Petrol is way costlier in EU than in USA.

In UK, petrol costs about the same (within about 10%) as in India. UK has very high taxes on petrol and diesel both.

I think the price of petrol/diesel is about same (diesel is slightly more expensive) over there.

From what I remember from my long forgotten chemistry courses, most of the lighter liquid petroleum products (that includes diesel) are sold based on their energy content - cracking and other processes ensure that heavier products (like diesel) can be converted into lighter (petrol) relatively easily, so even if there is more heavy content in the crude, the lighter petrol can be easily obtained.

Without cracking supply and demand will probably dictate higher petrol than diesel prices even in UK/EU
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Old 29th May 2011, 22:44   #37
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Default Re: How will the market change if Petrol and Diesel prices sky-rocket

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Originally Posted by Dr.D View Post
1)sir I opine that the new internal combustion engines a efficient enough to keep the carbon dioxides at minimal and lets charge for the emissions as tax.
It's not a question of opinion.

Electro Automotive: FAQ on Electric Car Efficiency & Pollution

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Originally Posted by Dr.D View Post
3)Not necessarily Brasil is an example. I know it is tough but not impossible to work things out.
When only Brazil was using ethanol, around 3% of the world's fuel came from ethanol. When the US started using it, it went up to around 5%. The increase from 3% of 5% caused a significant impact on food prices.
If the usage of ethanol even doubles, food prices will good up significantly.
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Old 30th May 2011, 01:11   #38
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Default Re: How will the market change if Petrol and Diesel prices sky-rocket

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Originally Posted by ajmat View Post
I drive a relative gas guzzler. I have managed to reduce my fuel consumption by 10% by:

1: Early morning - walk to the gym 1.5 km - eliminates cold starts, to the gym and back
It costs me in terms of time, I cannot read the paper like I used to

2: Commute - I now drive halfway, leave my car in one office and take a shuttle to the office.

3: Weekends - I use the swift unless absolutely necessary. RS used for long smooth runs

4: Idling - I switch off regularly at junctions
I walked today morning to my friends place nearby and we car pooled further down.
Nice suggestions , i will make a habit of doing so from now on.
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Old 30th May 2011, 09:26   #39
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Default Re: How will the market change if Petrol and Diesel prices sky-rocket

Unfortunately, due to bad roads, a lot of the petrol we burn is wasted. If the government, removed subsidies, deployed moeny saved from subsidies into good roads, generating employment, it would lead to smoother driving and an overall cut in fuel consumed which would balance out.

In others words, pay more but use less!
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Old 30th May 2011, 09:45   #40
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Default Re: How will the market change if Petrol and Diesel prices sky-rocket

I think we will crib, cut sown to driving for a couple of weeks, and then it will be back to life as usual.
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Old 30th May 2011, 12:05   #41
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Default Re: How will the market change if Petrol and Diesel prices sky-rocket

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I think we will crib, cut sown to driving for a couple of weeks, and then it will be back to life as usual.
Well said. That's how life is. We forget, and move on.

As for me, i have now started using the bike for short trips, after a hiatus of months together. When with family, i have no choice but to take the car out owing to a 2 year old involved. A/C usage too is limited these days, and i also coast when coming off a flyover and the road ahead is free.
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Old 30th May 2011, 12:15   #42
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Default Re: How will the market change if Petrol and Diesel prices sky-rocket

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......, and i also coast when coming off a flyover and the road ahead is free.
This is a risky practice. The car must be under 'power' at all times. In any case with your foot off the throttle you consume the same amount of fuel as at idle.
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Old 30th May 2011, 12:22   #43
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Default Re: How will the market change if Petrol and Diesel prices sky-rocket

I think he meant coasting in neutral ?
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Old 30th May 2011, 12:40   #44
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Default Re: How will the market change if Petrol and Diesel prices sky-rocket

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Originally Posted by sgiitk View Post
I think we will crib, cut sown to driving for a couple of weeks, and then it will be back to life as usual.
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Originally Posted by benbsb29 View Post
Well said. That's how life is. We forget, and move on.
@SGIIT and @BENBSB29:
I agree probably INR 100, might not be that high for some and life will move on. But again note that Rs 100 is not the end point, I wont be shocked if that goes above to Rs 120-140 region even. I mean not next year but probably by 2013.
I am sure, for many of us, our salary will not be doubling during that time.

For e.g. My Chennai-Banglr trip which I keep doing atleast once in a month was at a time costing be INR 1800. Now its going to touch INR 3500. Same my collegue was mentioning he was spending INR 4000 everymonth.
Now he is expecting INR 5000 pm, and if the price goes to INR 100/ltr then his budget shoots to INR 10000 pm. For a person earning INR 6000. 5000 cost pm is OK. But 10000 mean he will stop using his car.
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Old 30th May 2011, 15:12   #45
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Default Re: How will the market change if Petrol and Diesel prices sky-rocket

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But 10000 mean he will stop using his car.
Yes, he will probably stop.

So will India's growth engine and we will be staring at the second leg of the recession.
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