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Old 2nd December 2011, 01:16   #1
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Default November 2011 : Indian Car Sales & Analysis

All you number-crunching fans are in for a treat. Check out our latest style of reporting

Note:
  • Credit to Jalsa777 for preparing the charts below. Thanks a ton man!
  • The low volume super-premium brands have been excluded from the charts. They will be added as the stats come in.

TOP 20 Indian Car Rankings





Segment-Wise Sales






Last edited by GTO : 2nd December 2011 at 01:21.
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Old 2nd December 2011, 01:18   #2
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Default Re: November 2011 : Indian Car Sales & Analysis

Net Sales by Manufacturer


Indian Car Sales




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Old 2nd December 2011, 01:20   #3
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Default Re: November 2011 : Indian Car Sales & Analysis

My Analysis

• There is indeed light at the end of the tunnel, at least for some car manufacturers in India. November 2011 has been the best month since March 2011 for the market overall. Those partying hard this weekend are Hyundai (November was the 2nd best month of the year), Mahindra, Tata & Toyota. Maruti is also pushing aggressively in recovery mode, with month-on-month sales up by nearly 30,000 cars. In fact, of the 33,000 units that the market gained month-on-month, 90% of that went Maruti’s way. Overall, the market has grown year-on-year, albeit in the single digits. Reasons are the same: expensive petrol, high interest rates and now, costlier cars (the weak rupee has shot up input costs). If the size of the pie doesn't grow much, and everyone's real hungry, I can assure you that it's going to be the survival of the fittest. Who wins? YOU, the customer. Better prices & better products are for real, while overpriced cars can take a hike. God bless competition

• Interestingly, November was a rare month where sales of C segment sedans overtook that of MUVs & SUVs. No doubt, the plethora of launches & options has made the C sedan segment an exciting category to watch. In fact, if the Honda City had another 4000 unit month, C segment volumes would’ve been within an arm’s length of the entry-level A segment. Skoda was the most recent entrant with the Rapid, a car that’s identical to the Vento, yet priced noticeably lower. Clearly, buyers are looking at value-for-money purchases in the C segment, rather than spending 50% more money in the C+ segment. Just look at how the C+ segment (Corolla, Cruze, Civic etc.) has shrunk down to a mere 1,887 cars….it’s worst performance this year. A sedan like the Hyundai Verna (class-topper in its segment by a significant margin) offer all the tech, equipment, power & style that buyers were looking for in the C+ segment. Why spend more?

• There’s a fair share of hits & misses for Maruti in November. If this were a Formula 1 race, you would see only Maruti drivers on the entire podium. The No.1, No.2 and No.3 positions are all occupied by the popular Suzukis. The Swift, in particular, has had its best month in history with over 17,000 shipments. The Alto & WagonR also climb back to their usual 25K & 12K levels. The Dzire clocks a stellar month with over 10,000 cars reaching customers. Conversely, it’s a desert dry spell for the Ritz (production diverted to the Swift), Eeco, A-Star & Estilo. The Omni & SX4 are recovering, while Kizashi imports shoot up like nobody’s business. Get this, the Kizashi tops the 20 lakh sedan segment. Is it sustainable? Nope. Lastly, the less said about the Grand Vitara, the better.

• Hyundai had an exceptionally good month with exactly 35,000 factory -> dealer shipments. This, in a generally damp period for the industry. The bump up was majorly driven by the Eon that closed November at the ~7.5K mark. That said, the Eon hardly matches on expectations (Hyundai's own projection was 12K a month). The i10, i20 and Verna all delivered strong performances, the latter two topping their respective categories. The Santro, on the other hand, is slowly getting overshadowed by its more modern sibling.

• The Indicas (old & the new Vista) have their 3rd straight month with over 10,000 units shipped, while the Indigo + Manza also do respectively well at the 6,000 level. You will remember that November 2010 was a devastating month for the Nano, with a mere 500 copies leaving factory premises. The 2012 Nano (6,400 shipments) has a lot riding on it, what with a host of improvements being incorporated (Team-BHP review coming up soon). The Aria has completely tanked to an embarrassing mid-100 level…cheaper 4x2 variant notwithstanding. Meanwhile, the Safari trundles along at its monthly average.

• The Bolero & Scorpio remain Mahindra’s star performers, together bringing in nearly 13,000 high-profit sales. Remember, the margins on UVs are t-h-i-c-k. The XUV500 is sold out for a couple of months (what a well-priced product can do, even if it costs over a million bucks!!!) and is slowly chewing through the waiting list. It matches Xylo shipments, down to the last digit. The Verito sinks in November, recording its worst month in 7. Perhaps, Mahindra’s attention was only on the XUV500’s launch. But with a slew of modern cars around it, will the Verito be able to bounce back? Only with the cheaper sub-4 meter version, I reckon.

• Toyota has its best month of the year; perhaps the party’s going to run late into the night at a Bidadi club! After a long, long time, another Toyota overtakes the Innova as the brand’s best seller. Yup, it’s the Liva with over 4,300 cars sold. The Etios has a good month too, with 4,000 units moved. Thanks in no small part to the fresh diesels under the hood. Status quo for the Innova & Fortuner, though the Corolla appears to be hit by supply issues from Thailand, recording a forgettable month.

• Save for the Beat’s excellent performance (riding high on the 3-cylinder diesel), there’s not much happening over at Chevrolet. Things are looking gloomy for the Spark (5th month in a row) and the Cruze hasn’t lit up the tarmac either. Sure, there’s the Tavera which did ~1,800 units as usual. But there are too many duds in the portfolio, including the Aveo, UVA and Optra. The Captiva is also fast losing favor with the market. Chevrolet needs to get its act together and quick.

• Ford has its best month since March, the spike driven completely by the Figo. The well-priced old Fiesta continues to outperform the over-priced new Fiesta. I can’t think of too many other cars where the older generation consistently outsells the newer gen. Bite the bullet, Ford! Reposition the 2011 Fiesta before it’s too late.

• Volkswagen has a reasonably good month; the Polo & Vento put in their usual 3,000 tally. But what VW must feel good about is that, November was the first month that the Passat outsold the Superb. Even the Jetta outsold the Laura BTW. Watch this space for the Rapid versus Vento fight. Will VW *allow* the Rapid to outsell its identical sibling?

• Nissan isn’t able to capitalize on the Sunny’s super pricing. Anyone seen the stupid C-A-A-A-R ad? The spacious sedan deserved a better marketing strategy, as well as a DIESEL engine. Hopefully, the diesel Sunny is launched soon (@ the Auto Expo). Business as usual for the Micra @ 1,500.

• Skoda’s well-priced Rapid makes its debut. My prediction : The Rapid will go on to become the best selling Skoda, and give the brand previously unseen volumes. Volumes that the over-priced Fabia could never deliver upon. I’m extremely surprised by the Superb’s fall at 119 units; this has to be an issue with the logistics without doubt. The Laura has a rather mediocre month, while the Yeti continues with its flop-show.

• Tough times just don’t seem to end for Honda. First, it was the Japanese tragedy in the first half of the year that hit supplies. Then, the petrol-only manufacturer saw petrol prices rise stratospherically to over the Rs. 70 mark. Now, the Thailand floods have severely impacted part supplies. Honda has a tragic month with less than 2,000 cars sold. This, despite just launching a superbly priced, amazing hatchback (the Brio). Things will get better; it’s only a matter of time before the factory is working at full capacity again.

• Fiat’s strategy needs a major overhaul if its cars are to sell. Only problem is, no one knows what the real problem is. No, it’s not the after-sales, else Tata wouldn’t manage to do well with the exact same network. The Punto & Linea have yet another sub-par month. Together, and with all of 3 engine options each, the two only just cross the 1,000 level.

• Got a HM-Mitsubishi showroom close by? Go, take a picture. It’s soon going to be history. Except for the Pajero, the Mitsubishis put in tear-inducing performances. The Ambassador, which used to bring in some cash to pay the bills, is also tanking. Babus apparently prefer modern steeds to take them to work (whenever that is ).

• The over-priced Fluence and the over-priced Koleos fill up the rear of the grid. Things will only look up for Renault once the (IMHO) great looking Renault Pulse is launched. Hopefully, that car is priced well & marks a positive change in the brand’s strategy.

Last edited by GTO : 2nd December 2011 at 15:14. Reason: Adding a line on the Eon
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Old 2nd December 2011, 01:21   #4
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Default Re: November 2011 : Indian Car Sales & Analysis


A-Segment Trends


B-Segment Trends


C-Segment Trends


C+ Segment Trends


SUV & MUV Trends


D-Segment Trends

Last edited by GTO : 2nd December 2011 at 18:23.
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Old 2nd December 2011, 01:32   #5
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Note from the Team-BHP Support Team: Post deleted. Use the "Thanks" button instead of posting an unnecessary one-liner.

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Old 2nd December 2011, 01:44   #6
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Default Re: November 2011 : Indian Car Sales & Analysis

This has got to be the most comprehensive car-sales analysis I've ever seen, EVER! I'm blown away, Rush! And special thanks to Jalsa777 for his contribution to this thread as well!

There were many interesting things about the Nov sales-figures that I was waiting for. I wanted to see how well Mahinda had done with the XUV500. I wanted to see the jump in sales figures of the Toyota Etios/Liva, now that it's available with a diesel engine. And I also wanted to see how badly Honda had fared last month.

The XUV has done well. Predictably.

The Liva has rocketed to sales figures of 4k a month, from a consistent 2k. Thanks to that lovely diesel motor under the hood.

It's sad to see Honda slump to an all new low, despite the entry of the Brio. Sales have more than just halved. The Jazz has seen a steady decline over the last few months, and so has the Civic. But what shocked me the most is the huge drop in the sales of the City! From a consistent 3k-5k units, the Honda has fallen to a miserable 600 units!

This could be attributed to the massive natural calamity that hit Thailand. Not to mention soaring fuel prices, and competition that keeps getting stronger and better with diesel engines.

Now is a good time for that 1.6 diesel lump, Honda. Is anybody listening?

Last edited by suhaas307 : 2nd December 2011 at 01:50.
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Old 2nd December 2011, 01:57   #7
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Default Re: November 2011 : Indian Car Sales & Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by GTO View Post

• Fiat’s strategy needs a major overhaul if its cars are to sell. Only problem is, no one knows what the real problem is. No, it’s not the after-sales, else Tata wouldn’t manage to do well with the exact same network. The Punto & Linea have yet another sub-par month. Together, and with all of 3 engine options each, the two only just cross the 1,000 level.
I disagree on this. It is the after sales service. TASS prefers servicing TATA cars and hence Fiat owners tend to get step-motherly treatment. They sometime behave as if they were doing us a favor by servicing a Fiat car. Not sure if they have been told about the JV stuff yet.

There are no dedicated service bays for Fiat cars as claimed. Forget about the bays, there are no dedicated Fiat experts in the workforce. Result: Tata Technician doing a jugaad on a Fiat car

Last edited by Rock 'n' rollz : 2nd December 2011 at 02:00.
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Old 2nd December 2011, 02:17   #8
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Default Re: November 2011 : Indian Car Sales & Analysis

GTO,
Thanks for this excellent analysis
Please re-evaluate your comments again thinking from the following perspective -
1) Maruti had many months of back log due to strike
2) Most of Maruti top cars sold this month are the ones which get maximum bookings and were held due to back logs
3) Hence much of the backlogs were cleared this month

This means, The realistic sales increase or realistic increase in market size is really small.

I wonder what would happen if, the back log is normalised to previous months, do you still see Nov month sales going higher ? or still showing signs of slowdown ?

I still think that, if maruti sales are normalised to previous months, then effect of season would give a real picture.

With this real picture, we can say, are we seeing light at the end of the tunnel or this is just a mirage!!!

Last edited by groom : 2nd December 2011 at 02:17. Reason: correction
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Old 2nd December 2011, 02:17   #9
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Default Re: November 2011 : Indian Car Sales & Analysis

So the thread for which we all wait impatiently has come...
Thanks GTO and Jalsa777 for new style and quick reporting (by 1 AM on 2nd day of the month)
My observations:
1. Maruti effect on total sales can be seen. Accounting for more than 90% of the total growth on month-to-month basis. Also feels nice to see overall sales increasing (or returning back to normal) for the automobile sector despite petrol price hike, Interest rate hike, etc. Seems to be driven by Maruti strike ending and aggressive discounts and marketing by all manufacturers.
2. Honda is reduced to like also ran. Due to natural factors though. Yet to see the optimum sales performance of Jazz since the price cut.
3. The biggest gainer looks like Fiat. Sales almost getting doubled. Seems like discounts and offers are working for them. Feels good for the company struggling very hard for its existence as Car Manufacturer rather than Engine manufacturer.
4. Eon is selling less than i10 forget Alto.
5. Good to see Nano picking up. Should definitely touch five-digit figure next month.
6. Biggest surprise of the month is Kizashi. I thought both MUL (no Ads) and people have forgotten this car. I think massive discount or some bulk order is behind these numbers.
7. One Fiat Palio sold after a gap of four months. Must have been awarded as a prize in some competition.
8. Honda City share is evenly distributed among all cars in that segment except Vento which seems to be affected by Rapid.

Suggestions :
1. The Bar Graph showing Total monthly sales - Segment wise is little hard to read as some segment numbers are too small to be noticed by the graph in comparison with other segments.
2. Similarly Bar Graph showing Top 20 Cars by sales volume should show each car sales volume on top of each bar (in very small font) to make it more informative.
3. Segment wise trends should also be shown in table form below the graph with sales figure of each car.
Thanks Again
P.S. - Please start similar thread on sales numbers of Two-wheelers. Only four-five major manufacturers present.

Last edited by carwatcher : 2nd December 2011 at 02:30.
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Old 2nd December 2011, 02:24   #10
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Default Re: November 2011 : Indian Car Sales & Analysis

Maruti are back, with 4 of the top 5 sold cars this month being theirs. One interesting thing to note is the significant jump in Kizashi sales. Anyone know why? Price cut?

Hyundai! 3 months in and the Eon seems to have settled in nicely. 2nd place in the A-segment but still not quite the Alto killer they'd have hoped for. One interesting thing is that the Accent and the Santro still do respectable figures! Heck some manufacturers would love to do the numbers these two 'old' and 'outdated' models bring in to the Hyundai stable. The Sonata despite being the real VFM choice of the D-segment continues to do bad. Proves that price isn't everything, brand matters.

The VW twins (Polo and Vento) continue their 3k-ish assault and the Skoda Rapid's introduction doesn't seem to have hurt VW much. Atleast this first month.

Horrendous month for Honda. Possibly the lowest City sales in years?! Combination of floods in Thailand and rising petrol prices - Honda, we need to see a diesel mill, and fast!

Toyota meanwhile do very well. Etios and Liva have a great month (I still wish Toyota had brought the Yaris here instead though - not a fan at all of the Etios twins).

Mitsubishi have... nah, never mind

Thanks for the data and graphs, GTO & Jalsa777
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Old 2nd December 2011, 02:51   #11
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Default Re: November 2011 : Indian Car Sales & Analysis

WoW! GTO - Usually the Most detailed Sales Report & Analysis,
Now coupled with the Graphical representation - Probably the most comprehensive Sales Analysis & Status Report of the Indian Automotive Scene that is out there right now.

Thank You & Jalsa777 for putting this together.

- Amazed to see 4 out of the 5 Top performers coming from Maruti after the recent issues.

- Also, not surprised at the "Not so great" performance of the EON. Did it really shake the Alto or Was it supposed to? Good product, but probably even Hyundai doesn't know the TG yet?

- Skoda Definitely needs to do something about the A** and once sorted, needs to focus on removing the perception (more often not) about the horror stories. They have a winner at hands in the Rapid, if only the horror stories don't haunt themselves.

- Ford, Offering a 75000 discount on the New Fiesta isn't exactly going to help. Price Correction around the corner?

- 140 Aria's, Already facing the heat from the XUV?

- Honda's dismal show is definitely owing to the issues rather than the lack of demand. The Brio, Jazz & City all are great products and inspite of not having a Diesel Mill have a good market. Never thought the waiting period for the Jazz would run into 6-9 months, but definitely a great product getting it's due now owing to the price corrections.
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Old 2nd December 2011, 06:40   #12
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Default Re: November 2011 : Indian Car Sales & Analysis

Thanks GTO and Jalsa.

Not surprised to see Maruti on the top of the charts. But was puzzled to see a sudden jump of more than 4000 units for Wagon R. What has changed??

Disappointed to see 140 units of Aria. I was hoping that this would do well.
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Old 2nd December 2011, 06:48   #13
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Default Re: November 2011 : Indian Car Sales & Analysis

Thanks GTO and yes this format looks amazing.

Kiazshi selling 160 units? I am sure there are some discounts thrown in at the end of the year. I was offered 2L discount on the OTR bangalore price. That makes it come closer to the Jetta/upper segment Civic/Altis price range. No wonder they want to clear the year end stocks soon.

XUV 5OhOh doing 1600 units a month, needs to be seen if they can carry on like this for sometime. Some of the niggles needs to be sorted out sooner then later. Does not look like it has had any impact in the Fortuner/Innova numbers as some of us stated earlier (although its too early to say). If at all Fortuner/Innova numbers are only looking better.

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Old 2nd December 2011, 06:59   #14
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Default Re: November 2011 : Indian Car Sales & Analysis

Thank You GTO and Jalsa777 for the BIG effort put in. Appreciate much!

Maruti is in recovery mode. I think the Swift will breach the 20K barrier soon to cut down the huge waiting period. Good to see Eon with a very good 7K units. But the Alto' sales have dipped from the jaw dropping 30K+ units. And what about the Omni? Think about the huge huge margin it delivers to MSIL.

I hope the 2012 Nano does well. I love the little car and wants it to do well. The i20 at 7K is stellar being the oldest among the B+ biggies. I have heard Ford biggest problem with the new Fiesta is localization. Hope they crack it. I badly want to see the Fiesta hatch in our market with an aggressive pricing from the word go.

Hope Honda sorts its supply issues soon. And an amazing month for the Safari. The Rapid effect is showing. Nowadays, I hear too many ads on the radio announcing zero waiting period for the Vento TDi. Have a hunch the Skoda will outsell the VW there. Surprised to see very low numbers of the Yeti being shipped from the factory. Isn't the 4x2 launched?

Fiat definitely needs to do something. I hope the latest deal with MSIL to deliver the MJD doesn't divert their attention from the core 'car business'; if it has not happened already. Waiting to see the 2012 Punto.

The Big Germans are conspicuous by their absence from the list. Are they slow in reporting the numbers?

Last edited by deetjohn : 2nd December 2011 at 07:02. Reason: Adding text.
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Old 2nd December 2011, 07:55   #15
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Default Re: November 2011 : Indian Car Sales & Analysis

Thanks GTO and Jalsa. Nice way of reporting the number game.

Not surprised to see Maruti on the top of the charts. Maruti rules the A,B and C segments. Swift will be in the lead for many more months for sure!

The VW twins (Polo and Vento) continue their 3k-ish assault and the Skoda Rapid's is the car to watch - potential to lead the C segment!

Hyundai doing well with the Eon,i10, Verna & i20's. Santro could fizzle out!

Honda's plight was known due to the Thailand floods!

Renault needs to re-look at its strategy! Seems a dud as of now.
Nissan sales seem to be flat!

Toyota has lots to cheer on the Etios sales.



Cheers!

Last edited by volkman10 : 2nd December 2011 at 08:07.
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