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Old 3rd January 2012, 17:28   #16
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Default Re: December 2011 : Indian Car Sales & Analysis

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Originally Posted by Durango Dude View Post
The one thing to note would be that except for Maruti, no one is able to pull off the petrol hatch sales. They also have been reduced to depend on the Alto and Wagon R. That's a warning to all the other car makers thinking of bringing in a petrol hatch: whatever the efficiency. Unless there's a price correction of petrol there's no reversing this trend; even the smallest most efficient of hatchbacks will take a beating if it doesn't have a diesel engine.
Yea actually good point, that could be all together new analysis how has 2011 been to manufacturers who shifted production schedules from petrol to diesel products to tame the markets thirst for the oil burner and those who hesitated.
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Old 3rd January 2012, 17:29   #17
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Default Re: December 2011 : Indian Car Sales & Analysis

Thanks GTO and Jalsa for the excellent charts. Poor Hondas are nowhere to be seen on the charts. And equally surprising is the fall of Corolla in the month of Dec.

Also, it would be great if you could elaborate the segment categorization of the vehicles. I believe Brio should have been in B1 segment.
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Old 3rd January 2012, 17:35   #18
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Default Re: December 2011 : Indian Car Sales & Analysis

Alto & Wagon R sell as they dont have a diesel competitor in their price range. With talks of massive petrol price increases after the state polls, i dont see how petrol cars will sell in India.

Fiat is going from one low to another - dont think the F/L versions are going to give a long term boost - issues are still laggard engines, poor plastics & rock bottom A.S.S. (atleast the image).

Maruti has had a hit but it should bounce back with the Ritz based UV (if it comes with the MJD heart) & refreshed Dzire CS. Swift is back to being the king of hatchback segment.

Hyundai has had a bumper year - Verna has been the runaway success. With launches in premium segment - i45/Sonata etc - expect it to strengthen more. It badly needs a ~1L diesel heart for its i10 - it will kill off Figo/Beat if it manages to get a good small diesel motor here.

Ford - wake up and smell the coffee already. Strip useless features from Fiesta like voice activated gizmo-giri, do something about interior quality and cut the price by atleast ~1L. And please price EcoSport rationally.
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Old 3rd January 2012, 17:37   #19
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Default Re: December 2011 : Indian Car Sales & Analysis

Excellent compilation by GTO and Jalsa777. Maruti is still way ahead from its closest competitor. It seems like Hyundai continue to grow its market share with Eon and i10. I'm very happy to see VW's performance this year. Better dealer network will be their key to success for next year.
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Old 3rd January 2012, 17:47   #20
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Default Re: December 2011 : Indian Car Sales & Analysis

SX4 is a clear loser. Eeco sales are down due to steep Petrol prices, while Ritz production may be curtailed for Swift. Kizashi at 51 is OK, considering its price! Time for Maruti to halt Estilo and do a complete revamp for A-Star. Or a Diesel Estilo / A-Star with a 1-liter engine will do the job for them, IMO. Beat proves it for Chevrolet.

Hyundai, even with Eon launch, not gained in hatchback segment. Eon eats into Santro and i10 sales, IMO. But Verna gathers volume for Hyundai. The extra 3k sales are clearly due to Verna.
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Old 3rd January 2012, 17:48   #21
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Default Re: December 2011 : Indian Car Sales & Analysis

Surprised to see the ~50% decline in sales of Sunny. Would guess this is largely due to the announcement of diesel variant in early Dec, which has made folks shun the petrol and book the diesel, shipments of which are yet to commence.
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Old 3rd January 2012, 17:56   #22
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Default Re: December 2011 : Indian Car Sales & Analysis

Little OT:
Petrol market price vs Diesel managed price is making a skew of demand towards the latter. I wonder how long this artificial price of energy can be maintained.

The fact is that only about 20~25% of diesel goes in to agriculture and transportation for which all the crocodile tears are being shed. Another 15~20% goes in for armed forces. Balance??? Goes in to private industry either for generation of electricity or even more so for transportation needs. Imagine how much diesel is consumed by likes of mining companies? All profit making activities but subsidized by taxpayers money.

So what would be the skew factor due to diesel pricing in the car sales figures??

Excellent report and analysis as usual.
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Old 3rd January 2012, 17:58   #23
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Default Re: December 2011 : Indian Car Sales & Analysis

Superb analysis.

Why is the Nissan Sunny not ticking the right boxes is surprising for me. Specially when the Petrol variant was managing around 1000 units before. With the launch of diesel I expected this to climb up to 2 - 2.5k. The car as GTO rightly summarized is an excellent package. It feels way more premium then the other entry level sedans namely the Dzire and the Manza.

Another car thats coming out as a surprise package is the Hyundai Accent. The decade old car is still managing to sell 500 units consistently. Whats Hyundai's secret behind this?
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Old 3rd January 2012, 18:08   #24
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Default Re: December 2011 : Indian Car Sales & Analysis

Eon - Alto competitor

Alto is selling 4 times as much as the Eon. Where is the competition ? Hyundai was too arrogant to price a 3 pot car with Bad NVH 40-50k more than the well established Alto. Alto under the skin is still a hard package to beat. Alto especially the k10 version has the performance to surprise 1.6 l hatches at traffic signal drags . Alto has much better everyday mileage and much superior NVH. I had mentioned , looks alone cannot get you sales figure in the cut throat A segement and Hyundai have learnt it the hard way . Unless Hyundai do a revision of the prices , its Alto which will the people's car in India.

Last edited by needforspeed88 : 3rd January 2012 at 18:09.
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Old 3rd January 2012, 18:09   #25
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Default Re: December 2011 : Indian Car Sales & Analysis

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Originally Posted by ethanhunt123 View Post
Hyundai has had a bumper year - Verna has been the runaway success. With launches in premium segment - i45/Sonata etc - expect it to strengthen more. It badly needs a ~1L diesel heart for its i10 - it will kill off Figo/Beat if it manages to get a good small diesel motor here.
How true. Hyundai's stubborn reluctance to have a 1L diesel engine for the i10 here in India has, in my opinion, been a huge blunder, which has been reflected in its sales these past few months. At one time, it was the second highest selling car after the Alto. Now, it has slipped to No.7 in the Top-20 list, even behind the Bolero, and its sales could dip further when petrol prices are raised, possibly, after the assembly polls in five states.

The only saving grace for Hyundai is that 5 of its 8 cars still feature in the Top-20 list, by far the best ratio in proportion to Maruti (5/14), Tata (3/7), Toyota (3/9), Mahindra (2/5), Ford (1/4), Chevrolet (1/8).

But having said that, Tata is about to edge past Hyundai as the second largest Indian car manufacturer, with 5 of its 7 cars doing great sales in December.

What surprises me is that the decade-old Santro still sells in great numbers, in comparison with newer rivals in the busy and highly competitive hatch segment. To put things in perspective: The Santro has had no major facelift and features the same lone petrol engine (with an average ARAI certified FE), but it still sold nearly 5,000 cars in December. Clearly, simple yet practical features about the car appeals to a large chunk of buyers.

Last edited by misquitas : 3rd January 2012 at 18:17.
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Old 3rd January 2012, 18:15   #26
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Default Re: December 2011 : Indian Car Sales & Analysis

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Originally Posted by ethanhunt123 View Post
Alto & Wagon R sell as they dont have a diesel competitor in their price range. With talks of massive petrol price increases after the state polls, i dont see how petrol cars will sell in India.
There are lots of people who hardly do even 10K km per year. Goto a parking in any housing society in Mumbai and you will find so many cars are just parked the whole day. I have seen people buy new cars and then drive them to the nearby mall on weekends or sometimes for errands in the evening. For them, a diesel car cannot be justified.
Hence, I think the impact due to a diesel option, if available, won't be as hard as in the higher segments like C/C+ and petrol cars will continue to sell in huge numbers.
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Old 3rd January 2012, 18:16   #27
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Default Re: December 2011 : Indian Car Sales & Analysis

Good to see the pure desi car companies doing well this month.

Tatas have really come back with all their categories selling well. A diesel nano will definitely get them near Maruti.

Mahindra can ride on the XUV for multiple months going forward.

As for Nissan, the main reason for their bad show is their single dealer single city funda. I know of at least three of my acquaintances who went to their showroom with a cheque book and came out angry thanks to the dealer shenanigans. Most buyers are skeptical at putting in money when the sales guys have so much airs on themselves, how will the service guys treat them.

Hyundai need to cut prices on the Eon to sell it. They have to match the Alto.

As for Maruti, I still do not understand how they manage to sell so many Altos. For what it costs and what it offers, Alto is really not cheap. I need to talk to somebody who has bought an Alto and analyze why he bought it

Fiat, really dont know how will they turn themselves. The people in Bombay are totally turned off and will never buy a Fiat. Maybe the south where they sell the best will save them.

Toyota - Didn't expect them to do so well. Good for them but bad for the consumer. With such awful interiors they have found buyers.

GM and Ford - Are currently running one horse / car race. Beat and Figo doing all the work. They need to get some new blood and soon.

Overall a good month for the industry.

Cheers
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Old 3rd January 2012, 18:21   #28
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Default Re: December 2011 : Indian Car Sales & Analysis

Excellent report, guys.
Maruti clearly needs a new hatchback to take the position of Estilo and A Star simultaneously. A small diesel wont hurt, either.
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Old 3rd January 2012, 18:30   #29
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Default Re: December 2011 : Indian Car Sales & Analysis

GTO, as always very good analysis. I keep wondering about Alto always, and more in last two months. Despite of the launch of EON, Alto continues to lead the segment.
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Old 3rd January 2012, 18:53   #30
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Default Re: December 2011 : Indian Car Sales & Analysis

The eagerly awaited analytical report report is here. As predicted by me, Etios/Liva brands are on their way to becoming best-sellers for value conscious Indian car buyer. Fortuner sales take a dip, maybe due to the new model on the anvil. Sad to see poor Corolla sales, helped no less by a poor diesel engine for a car in this class. Also people are awaiting the new year model in most premium segment cars as their resale drops the most due to year change. The new Made in India Camry with a lower sticker price might shake up market in its segment, though without a diesel, I doubt that it will be able to touch the Superb, which was helped this month by all time high year-end discounts.

Record monthly sales for the XUV too. Hope they sort out the niggles to make it a best-seller in its segment. Diesel vehicles and increased rural wealth (gained from realty) have contributed heavily to Mahindra and Tata sales.

i10 share eaten mostly by the Eon. Same way Vento sales eaten by the Rapid. Swift selling blindly contributed mainly by the diesel model, though I don't think it deserves the accolades it is getting.

Cars to look out for in the new year (which I think will make an impact) will be the Sunny (diesel), Rapid (diesel), XUV, Etios/Liva (diesels), MPV from Maruti (diesel), New Safari, Superb & the New Camry. I will be looking closely on City sales to see whether my predictions for it come true also. I love the new City's pricing/specs and will hate to see it go down the drain due to lack of diesel.

Last edited by dkaile : 3rd January 2012 at 18:57.
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