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Old 22nd June 2012, 15:19   #76
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Default Re: Why this Kolaveri for the Indian Car Industry?!!

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Originally Posted by samarjitdhar View Post
What Singapore of course did was create a fantastic public transport infrastructure to attain and sustain growth. Our politicos only are visionaries in a fantasy world citing all sorts of excuses for their inaction in the real world.
Yes we know about it. After all so many of our politicos have taken trips to Singapore, Dubai, wherever to see their systems on tax payer money

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I read some of 46TheDoctor's posts and think this NEEDS to be said. Am I OK with 600 million cars on India's roads? Well, why not?
India needs to have a serious rethink before becoming further dependent on fuel as an economy. It may suit US but look at their fuel prices. European cities have excellent mass transit systems, well most of them anyway. China has built faster trains.
What are we doing here in India?
There is no reliable and safe mass transit system in cities, no high speed trains between cities. How many cars can be put on our city roads and how many people can board flights? There needs to be some serious investment in terms of rail infrastructure before booting the car manufacturers. And anyone who talks about job creation should know that this needs to be built over a generation or two.

Gas guzzling cars are not the long term future, after all one can only take out so much oil from a sphere. It better we move there sooner than be left high and dry when the wells finally dry up. In short its high time that we started looking beyond our nose. And our cars.

Of course, I am open to being accused of double standards as I have two cars. But then I am not qualified or paid to decide this strategy for the country.
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Old 22nd June 2012, 15:32   #77
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Default Re: Why this Kolaveri for the Indian Car Industry?!!

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Then, please answer all of the questions i have raised in one of my previous posts about it's effects and justify them. I will be in agreement with you if you can do that.
Thnx.
Doctor, your post ASSUMES that infrastructure such as roads, parking, etc. etc. will remain stagnant as number of cars on the road increase. Furthermore there is an implication that the car owners are somehow "guilty" of hogging said infrastructure (my words not yours). I was just going the other extreme- 600 million cars was just a thought experiment of sorts. What's so wrong if every adult in India is able to afford a car? As a human being, I have aspirations and owning a vehicle is about the most "typical" aspiration you will find.
It is true that every individual is responsible for contributing to the community and society but that does not absolve the government of its own responsibilities. You cannot solicit investment on one hand and choke the market through unfair taxation on the other. That is my only point.
In my opinion, comparisons with Singapore etc. are completely meaningless.
I lived in that country for 2 years, never even felt the NEED to own a car, the mass rapid transit and local taxi system is so good. Hell, even road connectivity to Malaysian cities is superb. There is no Indian city with a transit system HALF as good.


Ninja- trust that answers most of your doubts as well.
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Old 22nd June 2012, 15:48   #78
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Originally Posted by noopster View Post
Doctor, your post ASSUMES that infrastructure such as roads, parking, etc. etc. will remain stagnant as number of cars on the road increase. Furthermore there is an implication that the car owners are somehow "guilty" of hogging said infrastructure (my words not yours). I was just going the other extreme- 600 million cars was just a thought experiment of sorts. What's so wrong if every adult in India is able to afford a car? As a human being, I have aspirations and owning a vehicle is about the most "typical" aspiration you will find.
It is true that every individual is responsible for contributing to the community and society but that does not absolve the government of its own responsibilities. You cannot solicit investment on one hand and choke the market through unfair taxation on the other. That is my only point.
In my opinion, comparisons with Singapore etc. are completely meaningless.
I lived in that country for 2 years, never even felt the NEED to own a car, the mass rapid transit and local taxi system is so good. Hell, even road connectivity to Malaysian cities is superb. There is no Indian city with a transit system HALF as good.


Ninja- trust that answers most of your doubts as well.
Everything i have said is only because of the single factor called population density. Everything you have said is perfectly alright if we were say 100 million or so. Definitely not when we are1.2 billion. You work out some nos and you Will know for youself. And if we try to do that with our current population it will be not only unsustainable but clearly Fatal as someone has said before. Honestly, india has been careless about it's population growth and now paying the price.

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Old 22nd June 2012, 17:08   #79
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Everything i have said is only because of the single factor called population density.
As you've assumed the population density of India is not that bad. We assume its very dense as the number of cities in India is very less. If you 'view' India as a sub-continent everything will seem almost normal. In fact many developed nations have a higher density than us including South korea, Holland and the resource scarce japan. India's current population growth is at 1.3%, which is a moderate rate and not an alarming rate.(US rate of growth is 1%)
I know of many urban couples who are postponing their child plans by even 5 years for the sake of career. With more and more urbanization this population growth will reduce within a few decades.

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Old 22nd June 2012, 17:21   #80
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As you've assumed the population density of India is not that bad. We assume its very dense as the number of cities in India is very less. If you view India as a sub-continent everything will seem normal. In fact many developed nations have a higher density than us including South korea, Holland and the resource scarce japan. India's current population growth is at 1.3%.
I know of many urban couples who are postponing their child plans by even 5 years for the sake of career. With more and more urbanization this population growth will reduce within a few decades.
Even if our population growth is under control, population and density is extremely high.
I havent assumed anything. All the data is from wikipedia. For example mumbai has population density of 20800/sq. Km. Which means we will have 11000-15000 cars/sq. Km if we copy western model which is definitely not sustainable no matter how much rennovations we do. As a country our PD is 369/sq. Km., but we have to take aside land for agriculture(1.2 billion need a lot of food), green cover, mountain ranges and geographical structures, etc. before calculating the usable land for human occupancy.

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Old 22nd June 2012, 17:55   #81
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I havent assumed anything. All the data is from wikipedia. For example mumbai has population density of 20800/sq. Km. Which means we will have 11000-15000 cars/sq. Km if we copy western model which is definitely not sustainable no matter how much rennovations we do.
None of the mega cities in any part of the world are fully equipped to handle personal cars and that's why they charge congestion fee and also have excellent mass transportation. I'm talking about the car industry as a whole which caters to not just one Mumbai, but to other innumerable towns and cities where public transportation is not a viable alternative.
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As a country our PD is 369/sq. Km., but we have to take aside land for agriculture(1.2 billion need a lot of food), green cover, mountain ranges and geographical structures, etc. before calculating the usable land for human occupancy.
Please don't take that 1.2 billion number as a whole and that's creating that gigantic mental block. Break it down into into states and the numbers will seem manageable. Every country with similar densitiy or more, has that need. Then where did they build roads.

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Old 22nd June 2012, 18:24   #82
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None of the mega cities in any part of the world are fully equipped to handle personal cars and that's why they charge congestion fee and also have excellent mass transportation. I'm talking about the car industry as a whole which caters to not just one Mumbai, but to other innumerable towns and cities where public transportation is not a viable alternative. Please don't take that 1.2 billion number as a whole and that's creating that gigantic mental block. Break it down into into states and the numbers will seem manageable. Every country with similar densitiy or more, has that need. Then where did they build roads.
If we can put in a system like conggestion charges, etc. like those megacities, then car prices can be reduced for sure. But, it's not there in our case and i dont think our society is mature enough to accept it immediately.

Population density of any region is calculared by the formula, population of the region devided by geographical area of that region, so, when i consider total population of 1.2 billion, total geographical area of india is also taken into consideration. So, it doesnt make any difference to the calculation. Of course cities have high density and clearly remain unsuitable to accomodate cars in such nos, villages can accomodate cars but they havent become strong buyers yet.

Not many countries have density like india (pls check online sources for stats) and when they have they clearly promote public transport through their policies. A lot of developed nations with high population density import their food, are we in a position to do that when we have so much cultivable land in our country.
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Old 22nd June 2012, 21:15   #83
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After reading all posts in this thread, it seems there is little or no disagreement amongst people that enhancing the public transportation is indeed the long term solution.

I see that middle class are little angry and justifiably so because Govt is taxing them (chiefly) as if there no tomorrow -- be it high road tax, duties, fuel prices and what not -- VAT, cess on VAT, VAT on VAT ... with little or no tangible benefits returned in the other direction.

Though it is not the primary moot point in this thread, the viability of a big automobile industry rooted on fossil fuel consumption technologies is indeed a conscious decision we have to make as a country. GTO have mentioned many advantages of having a sizable automobile industry in India, but the post is silent of it's disadvantages and ill-experiences faced by many major economies who went ahead with that model

Last edited by B103 : 22nd June 2012 at 21:22.
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Old 22nd June 2012, 21:37   #84
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Though it is not the primary moot point in this thread, the viability of a big automobile industry rooted on fossil fuel consumption technologies is indeed a conscious decision we have to make as a country.
Public Transportation is also most based on fossil fuel consumption. And almost every other industry.
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Old 22nd June 2012, 21:52   #85
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Public Transportation is also most based on fossil fuel consumption. And almost every other industry.
Most of it are but may be not all of them say like electric engines used in trains.

Granted that a fair share of blame is attributable to the bad infrastructure. On the other side, if one is to stand and observe the cars plying in major city roads, a good majority of them will have only a driver when it can seat 5.

How much can we make our roads wider? There is a limit to it isn't? That is when a good public transport will take the lead because it is invariably some form of a mass transport. Do you agree, Carboy?
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Old 22nd June 2012, 22:01   #86
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Most of it are but may be not all of them say like electric engines used in trains.
Where do you think electricity comes from. 55% is from coal - which is a fossil fuel. And I would think at least another 15% minimum from other fossil fuels. So that's a minimum of 70% of the country's electricity from fossil consumption.

So I am not just talking about Transportation related industries. Almost every industry in the country is based on fossil fuel consumption.

Last edited by carboy : 22nd June 2012 at 22:02.
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Old 23rd June 2012, 03:20   #87
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Sorry for the rant and long post. I know its off topic, but this is where all the trouble begins.

Well this is my take on this whole issue, atleast when it comes to fossil fuels. If any of you have time please read freakonomics2. Its an amazing book where a team of scientists debunk several myths including fossil fuel shortage etc.

Actually Iranian president says, the crude oil produced is more than we could consume, so prices are all artificial, and you know how greedy investment banks are.

Now in India atleast 75% of the population is not productive, what I mean is not productive enough to lift the country to another height. If you look at the advanced countries, you will find that the population is less, and have contributed immensely to their country's growth.

We have a huge population that does not even know right hand from the left, and interestingly the govt does not want people to be educated, but be poor and live on subsidies. Imagine all of India's 100 cr. population thinking like we guys and debating like us. Till the time the productive 15% is feeding the unproductive 85% things will not change. I mean productive in a holistic sense.

Till the day the population does not become productive enough, this country will go to doom, and the politicians will be the happiest. Always remember the following:

a) You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity.

b) What one person receives without working for, another person must work for without receiving.

c) The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else.

d) You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it.

e) When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them, and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for, that my dear friend, is about the end of any nation.

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Old 23rd June 2012, 04:19   #88
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Originally Posted by 46TheDoctor View Post
A lot of developed nations with high population density import their food, are we in a position to do that when we have so much cultivable land in our country.
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How much can we make our roads wider? There is a limit to it isn't? That is when a good public transport will take the lead because it is invariably some form of a mass transport. Do you agree, Carboy?
Another important point to note is the availability of cultivable land. The cultivable land is already shrinking due to massive urbanisation and if we are going to adopt the US model Cars/Parking Lots/Expressways, we will lose the good quality agri land which is important for our food security.
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Old 23rd June 2012, 11:04   #89
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Doctor, your post ASSUMES that infrastructure such as roads, parking, etc. etc. will remain stagnant as number of cars on the road increase.
Actually its quite stagnated. The rate at which roads and highways were created say eight years ago, that rate has almost halved while the rate at which new cars are hitting the roads have probably doubled. Apart from the corruption and siphoning of funds, more and more farmers are refusing to give up their land for building of roads and highways. This is specially a problem when the farmers have small sized land holdings. By NHAI's own admission building and relaying of highways have stalled a lot.

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I know of many urban couples who are postponing their child plans by even 5 years for the sake of career. With more and more urbanization this population growth will reduce within a few decades.
Do we really have decades to act? In my opinion if we don't act in the next few years this situation is going to get totally broke.

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Please don't take that 1.2 billion number as a whole and that's creating that gigantic mental block. Break it down into into states and the numbers will seem manageable. Every country with similar densitiy or more, has that need. Then where did they build roads.
But isn't that relevant? Having lived in many countries around the world, it is actually the population density which makes a lot of difference. Where countries have small surface area, their leaders had been visionaries enough to build planned public infrastructure and transport in advance with proper planning to balance agriculture, industry, home ownership, etc.

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a) You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity.

b) What one person receives without working for, another person must work for without receiving.

c) The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else.

d) You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it.

e) When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them, and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for, that my dear friend, is about the end of any nation.
Very aptly put. Our government instead of using some of that wealth to empower the underprivileged through education uses it to collect votes. The rural educational infrastructure is in shambles, rural healthcare is a death warrant and all the MNREGA clone schemes are run through political party affiliations.

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Another important point to note is the availability of cultivable land. The cultivable land is already shrinking due to massive urbanisation and if we are going to adopt the US model Cars/Parking Lots/Expressways, we will lose the good quality agri land which is important for our food security.
Another excellent point. US I think has already become a net importer of foodgrains. Same goes for a lot of the European nations. India cannot afford to become a net food importer simply because of the amount of existing poverty. However there is no extreme solution like eliminating manufacturing or eliminating agriculture. There has to be a balanced approach while right now there is none.

Last edited by samarjitdhar : 23rd June 2012 at 11:07.
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Old 23rd June 2012, 11:40   #90
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Another excellent point. US I think has already become a net importer of foodgrains. Same goes for a lot of the European nations. India cannot afford to become a net food importer simply because of the amount of existing poverty. However there is no extreme solution like eliminating manufacturing or eliminating agriculture. There has to be a balanced approach while right now there is none.
Good point. And additionally, if more nations start planning to become net importers of food grain, where will they import it from? Cutlivable land is also a limited resource.
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