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Old 18th September 2012, 19:59   #91
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Default Re: Diesel Price Hike - end of the market skew in favour of diesels?

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Originally Posted by vb-san View Post
Especially with the fact that manufacturers are now promoting diesel cars as less polluting / green based on CO2 emissions (especially in Europe).
This is the crux of the problem. They only talk about CO2 emissions but not about NOx emissions. I wish for once people would start talking about them. I decided a long time back that a diesel will never be my daily drive. I would rather buy used cheap petrol cars than expensive new diesels. This is the logic by which I bought my Mondeo. Got it for 3.5 lakhs and will keep it for 4 years. Cost at the end of the day will be the same as buying a diesel car and then saving on diesel.

Oh and my office commute both ways is 60 kms and I work 6 days a week. So people are free to do the math.
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Old 18th September 2012, 21:00   #92
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Default Re: Diesel Price Hike - end of the market skew in favour of diesels?

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Originally Posted by iSpoke View Post
This time got the luck to find out Petrol/Diesel prices across the country from HP website. Looks neat one (hope they are keeping it uptodate).

This link shows the price build up for all HP fuels (Petrol/Diesel/Kerosene/LPG).
Thanks iSpoke. Reposting it (after thorough simplification - for details please refer to above link.)

Petrol:

Cost to Company : Rs. 46 (approx)
Central Tax and Duties : Rs. 10 (approx)
State Tax and Duties : Rs. 10 (approx)
Total : Rs. 66

Diesel:

Cost to Company : Rs 50 (Cost is higher than petrol)
Under recoveries : (-)Rs 13
Central Tax and Duties : Rs 4 (approx)
State Tax and Duties : Rs 6 (approx)
Total : Rs 47

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Originally Posted by fz_rider View Post
Well the days for Speed / Hi-Speed , Power , etc , etc are certainly over . Look at the spike . I doubt any body apart from Ultra rich will buy ful with additives .
Not quite. One of my uncle (a district level politico) owns 3 pumps in MP, he told me that due to profit margins, companies set them monthly targets for premium fuel sales. Many times they self consume the premium fuel but other times the pump owners form nexus and suspend sales of normal fuels. Some of customers who are really out of fuel have to get these. Earlier, difference used to be minimal but now......

This happens in MP. Not sure of other states. Even I have suffered earlier when I had to run from pump to pump with everyone offering premium fuel only.


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Originally Posted by vikram_d View Post
This is the crux of the problem. They only talk about CO2 emissions but not about NOx emissions. I wish for once people would start talking about them.
NOx and unburnt HC are controlled by advanced exhaust after-treatment devices like DPF, user injected SCR catalyst, EGR systems etc. US in general and California in particular requires that diesel exhaust be as clean as petrol exhaust. Euro6 compatible diesels from VW et al have been able to qualify these emission norms. However, maintenance costs of these devices is an entirely different matter altogether.

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Originally Posted by vikram_d View Post
I decided a long time back that a diesel will never be my daily drive. I would rather buy used cheap petrol cars than expensive new diesels. This is the logic by which I bought my Mondeo. Got it for 3.5 lakhs and will keep it for 4 years. Cost at the end of the day will be the same as buying a diesel car and then saving on diesel.

Oh and my office commute both ways is 60 kms and I work 6 days a week. So people are free to do the math.
Love your spirit man!

Last edited by sarthakgupta : 18th September 2012 at 21:02.
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Old 18th September 2012, 21:14   #93
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Default Re: Diesel Price Hike - end of the market skew in favour of diesels?

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Originally Posted by Harbir View Post
Its just food for thought. Since in India, fuel prices won't equalize in the foreseeable future, and since India will not penalize diesel vehicles for their soot and NOx emissions, its all hypothetical analysis
I may have bored and irritated most people here with my endless prattling, but if I've made even 2 people rethink their views that Diesel is a wonderful choice compared to petrol, I am satisfied.
This is WRT to the points you make on air quality and fuel used.

I have been saying that while we claim diesel is a less polluting fuel citing the European example, we do not refine Diesel to the level of purity that is being done in Europe i.e. ULSD.

Now I will take your statement about air quality at face value in various cities across the globe , hoping you have done your research. So if in spite of ULSD, scientific studies of air quality in European cities show an inferior quality relative to regions where petrol is the predominantly used as fuel, we are condemned twice over as we are increasingly becoming a diesel centric region and we are not refining Diesel to the level it is being refined in Europe.

The implication of this is:

[] If the refineries in India upgrade to move to ULSD the required capex will compel them to raise prices for Diesel which will be passed on to the consumers via the OMCs', which, coming to the subject matter of this thread will for sure make this skew in favour of Diesel history,

and secondly

[]If in addition to the above, QE3 and peak oil start making their impact felt on the energy complex and pricing based on purely economic considerations becomes a necessity , GoI will be compelled to either free diesel pricing or impose a punitive levy/cess on personal diesel vehicles (either one time or annual at the time of renewal of insurance or whatever), this skew will once again become history.
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Old 18th September 2012, 22:55   #94
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Default Re: Diesel Price Hike - end of the market skew in favour of diesels?

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Originally Posted by Harbir View Post
My simple point is this. THe fuel efficiency differences between petrol and diesel are not that big. in the example of the swift, its only about 2km/L. THATS IT. But Diesel cars also cost about 10% more at a minimum than their petrol equivalents (in India, its more like 20%) because diesel engines cost more to make due to their heavier construction, turbochargers, etc. Whether that small fuel economy advantage can offset the added cost of the diesel engine if fuel prices are equal is not a clear cut answer. If fuel is expensive (both diesel and petrol), the 2km/L advantage of the diesel may save more money than the exra purchase cost of the vehicle. But then the manufacturer may seek to share in that benefit by pricing the Diesel variant higher (as they do in India), reducing the advantage of the diesel.

[/i][/b]
Dude... my point was not to hurt anyones opinions. I was just mentioning a fact, which would logically deduce the following "another 60000 increase in tax of a diesel car is possible. which is currently being considered by the government."

You are correct in all the cases. but the equations would go haywire if the government considers another petrol hike of 5/- or 7/-. and what would happen if the government reduces the prices of diesel by say 2/- (Considering side effects from didi mamata )

THe other reason i believe is that, Diesel cars give beter FE in bumper to bumper trafic, where as the efficiency of petrols would drop by say 30+%. This would make significant difference for a prospective buyer.
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Old 19th September 2012, 01:10   #95
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Default Re: Diesel Price Hike - end of the market skew in favour of diesels?

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Originally Posted by Harbir;2907299...

My simple point is this. THe fuel efficiency differences between petrol and diesel are not that big. in the example of the swift, its only about 2km/L. THATS IT. But Diesel cars also cost about 10% more at a minimum than their petrol equivalents (in India, its more like 20%) because diesel engines cost more to make due to their heavier construction, turbochargers, etc. Whether that small fuel economy advantage can offset the added cost of the diesel engine if fuel prices are equal is not a clear cut answer.

....[B
.[/b]

The following is OT to some extent, but still -

Well actually diesel does have an advantage in FE at a very fundamental level - fuel air ratio is easily controllable with respect to the power requirements (fundamental to the way they work). This translates into a much larger than 2kmpl difference you are pointing out here, for example try to get the figures for Figo, the petrol versions give no better than 16kmpl on highways, while diesel version seldom give less than 22kmpl. In cities it becomes even more pronounced (imagine stop and go traffic).


Anyway, coming back on topic

for whatever reasons, at present in India the cost of running a reasonably small diesel car is between Rs. 2 to Rs. 4 per km. The cost of running a petrol car is about between Rs. 7 to Rs 10 per km. This is based on fuel costs and one service (oil change etc.) at every 10000 km, insurance is not linked to mileage so excluded from the above. For a rather large number of people I personally know Diesel never made sense, and it was so obvious they didn't buy one. For others (e.g. some people I know drive 200km per day in their commutes) petrol will not make sense even if govt. adds extra road taxes.

However while both segments are reasonably large, none is (I believe without evidence) large enough that it can skew the market significantly on its own. The question is people like me, driving between 6000km to 15000km a year which form the major chunk of car buyers - shall the preferences change now or will they remain the same as last year's?




Going off-topic once again - if you do care about environment, stop pretending petrols are going to help. For better city air, it is heavy diesel all the way - also known as public transport (or company bus).
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Old 19th September 2012, 01:37   #96
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Default Re: Diesel Price Hike - end of the market skew in favour of diesels?

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Originally Posted by vina View Post


Going off-topic once again - if you do care about environment, stop pretending petrols are going to help. For better city air, it is heavy diesel all the way - also known as public transport (or company bus).

I am not going to comment on the substantial portion of your post because I did say that I would start a new topic on the subject of diesel fuel in couple of days, but I will respond to this bit because I feel it is a bit of a personal attack that requires a response.

Firstly, I am not pretending to care about the environment. I care about my health and I care about the health of my fellow citizens. Whether you believe me what I say that or not, I don't particularly care.

That said, this is not about whether I or you or the 10 other people reading this thread do as individuals, but about what policies work for the overall good of everybody.

I drive a diesel Pajero. The incremental damage I do individually is as trivial and insignificant as the incremental good I would do by taking public transport while everybody else continues to increasingly buy diesel vehicles. Unless you intend to force everybody with a personal vehicle into public transportation, the suggestion of creating better quality air conditions by using public transport instead of petrol cars is gratuitous self gratification on your part more than anything.

The question is whether the burgeoning use of diesel fuel in personal vehicles is good for the health of Indians and the economy of India. Attacking me by saying I pretend to care about the environment and should take the bus if I care so much, amounts to an attempt to denigrate and dismiss a serious question about a situation that you find financially beneficial.

Cheers.
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Old 19th September 2012, 19:37   #97
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Default Re: Diesel Price Hike - end of the market skew in favour of diesels?

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Originally Posted by debuda View Post
IMHO, the govt. should encourage 'dieselisation' because going by the above scientific logic, the total consumption of crude oil in the country will actually come down if all petrol engines were replaced with diesel ones. Further, diesel being a lower distillate, it costs less to make a litre of diesel than petrol.
Sir,

At refinery level cost of production for all Light & Middle distillates is nearly the same. Cost of refining is actually calculated only on per MT of crude processed and never actually on individual product basis.

Incidentally on the economics of Diesel, Government initially had allowed Oil companies to keep all of Rs. 5.00 increase on 14.09.2012. But on 17.09.2012 they have increased Excise duty by Rs 1.5 per Litre and reduced the gain of Oil companies to Rs. 3.5/ Ltr. Thereby negating the effect of the price increase.

Regards
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Old 19th September 2012, 19:39   #98
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Default Re: Diesel Price Hike - end of the market skew in favour of diesels?

I am with Harbir on this one. Prior to the Common Rail Diesel revolution of the market (with the first mass market car being the Accent CRDi), it was Petrol which ruled the roost even though Diesels, which were substantially cheaper to run even then, were relegated to use on CVs and Taxis.

Diesels now with their improved power and NVH addressed their old weaknesses using CRDI and in effect converting the market into becoming primarily diesel centric, wherever an option is available. As long as Petrol engines do not hit back at their Diesel counterparts with improved technology, they will continue to remain the 'Also Ran'. The modern EU Direct Injection Turbo Petrol engines are offering exactly that!

If we look at it subjectively, the 1.8 TSI under the hood of a Laura TSI makes more horsepower than a 3.0 D4D in a Toyota Fortuner! AND both cars return similar FE (Laura on highways being much more fuel efficient especially when using 95 Octane.) Taking this forward, the 1.0 Ecoboost engine inside a Ford Ecosport makes equal horsepower to a 1.6 liter CRDi inside a Hyundai Verna. Of course you could argue that the petrols make less torque, but that can always be fixed by using shorter gearing which is much easier to live with on a Petrol than a Diesel due to its wide power-band.

So, when we leveled the playing field, the Diesel engines required 60% more displacement to dish out the same horsepower. This bigger size and weight will make the car itself more expensive to produce.

The low capacity Turbo petrol engines are only starting to show their face in the country now with the only sub 1.5 liter Turbo Petrol engined cars currently sold in India being the Linea and the Jetta, both of which were never high volume sellers to begin with (even with the Diesel variants).

Just imagine what would happen to the sales of a Petrol Swift powered by a 84bhp 875cc Fiat Twin-air engine which returns FE numbers at par with the Diesel Swift but still is cheaper, substantially lighter (due to much smaller block, much less beefy suspension) and more powerful. (Assumptions based on the fact that the 84 bhp Punto TwinAir and the 75bhp Punto MultiJet are rated to return the exact same 68MPG)

Diesel might have the advantage of being the more fuel efficient engine when comparing engines of similar displacement. But when you factor in the fact that it makes horsepower equal to a much lower capacity petrol, how can it still keep its FE advantage?
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Old 19th September 2012, 20:22   #99
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Originally Posted by antz.bin
I am with Harbir on this one. Prior to the Common Rail Diesel revolution of the market (with the first mass market car being the Accent CRDi), it was Petrol which ruled the roost even though Diesels, which were substantially cheaper to run even then, were relegated to use on CVs and Taxis.

Diesel might have the advantage of being the more fuel efficient engine when comparing engines of similar displacement. But when you factor in the fact that it makes horsepower equal to a much lower capacity petrol, how can it still keep its FE advantage?

Deep South Tamil Nadu and Kerala have always been traditionally Diesel markets, even for private use. This dates right back in my memory from the 1970's itself.
Largely because the cars down south, even private ones, invariably tended to do a heck of a lot of running and Diesel was always cheaper than Petrol.
There have always been a significant number of Mercedes Benz and even Toyota cars of the imported variety down South, especially in places like Kerala, Coimbatore and Tirupur etc. Most of these cars were the Diesel ones and not the Petrol cousins!
In the Hills down South, in the 1980's there was a significant movement by private users to 'diesel-ize' their petrol Ambassadors and such. Popular at the time were engines like Jaya Diesel engines which a lot of people used. Other engines like Isuzu,Nissan etc were also quite common, because they were easily available in cannibalized form from the light trucks or LCV's of the time!
Otherwise most of the chaps who owned private petrol cars and the additional company provided jeeps, simply tended to leave their petrol cars at home and buzzed around in their diesel Mahindra Jeeps!
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Old 19th September 2012, 22:46   #100
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Default Re: Diesel Price Hike - end of the market skew in favour of diesels?

Whatever be the argument, the fact that you get get a tank full of diesel at less than 3/4th the price of petrol leaves you with a bright smile. And the grin multiplies when you realize that the car runs a lot more on a full tank of diesel than on a full tank of petrol.

We had a petrol Getz at home, which was being used by heavily by us. It was only after my bro got a fiesta diesel that we realized how much savings were made on a diesel car. The Getz now runs only on emergencies .
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Old 20th September 2012, 09:26   #101
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Default Re: Diesel Price Hike - end of the market skew in favour of diesels?

If the govt is so serious on reducing diesel usage, they must change all their vehicles from diesel to petrol or rather cng. Wonder why state transport corporations railways, ministry vehicles, police vehicles, ambulances, fire brigade engines etc still running on diesel? All these vehicles combined must be a substantial percentage of diesel usage in India. Wonder why no 'expert' in the media thought about it? Easier to milk the common man i suppose!!!
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Old 20th September 2012, 09:50   #102
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Originally Posted by Harbir
Do we want to have a conversation about this and try to raise our consciousness from our individual selves to our collective self?

Because if we're not, then lets admit that all this patriotism and pride in India is all just faltu ki entertainment for us, that in fact we are not interested in what is good for all us as a society, only in what benefits us personally. That is not citizenship and we are poor citizens of the republic.

Mera bharat will be mahan only when Indians care as much about the well being of their fellow citizens as they do about themselves.

We are not there yet.
Thanks!
This is completely OT but please bear with me.

I completely agree with this point of view and post.

Yes indeed, we are as of now far too busy trying to look after ourselves personally and take the maximum out from the system for our own personal gain rather than do something properly for the collective good of all of us. We are also quite happy for any changes to be made, as long as it doesn't affect us personally! Of course it doesn't help that there is a marked lack of rules enforcement and a generally corrupt bunch of people in government. In that sense, owing to circumstance, we have taken it upon ourselves to take the maximum out of the system for our own personal gain. We generally don't like to share and share alike and always want the lion's share for ourselves even if we cannot consume it all. This, quote possibly comes of a 'famine psychology' and speaks a lot about our lack of development as a people in some sense. We have a deep set 'fear psychosis' within us.

Now, take a simple thing like garbage disposal and waste management. If my house is clear of rubbish it is fine. Even to the extent that I can chuck that rubbish into my neighbour's front or back yard, then that is his problem and not mine. If I chuck it on the street then it is the government's or municipality's problem, despite my being able to see clearly that the general surroundings are now a complete mess on account of my having chucked the rubbish there in the first place! This is the classic pass the buck attitude that characterizes most of us Indians.

This attitude amongst other things, holds us back really terribly as a nation. The sad thing is that this was never more evident as it is now over the last 10 years! We still had a semblance of decency and such in the 1970's and 1980's when life was rather less complicated and competitive! Our true nature with all its inherent barbarism seems to have come out now, when life has become a lot more complicated and there is constant pressure on us in terms of availability, costs etc etc.

This is only a personal view and I may or may not be correct in saying the above. However, this is what I believe to be true.

Last edited by shankar.balan : 20th September 2012 at 09:52.
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Old 20th September 2012, 12:25   #103
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Default Re: Diesel Price Hike - end of the market skew in favour of diesels?

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Originally Posted by antz.bin View Post
The modern EU Direct Injection Turbo Petrol engines are offering exactly that!

If we look at it subjectively, the 1.8 TSI under the hood of a Laura TSI makes more horsepower than a 3.0 D4D in a Toyota Fortuner! AND both cars return similar FE (Laura on highways being much more fuel efficient especially when using 95 Octane.) Taking this forward, the 1.0 Ecoboost engine inside a Ford Ecosport makes equal horsepower to a 1.6 liter CRDi inside a Hyundai Verna. Of course you could argue that the petrols make less torque, but that can always be fixed by using shorter gearing which is much easier to live with on a Petrol than a Diesel due to its wide power-band.

So, when we leveled the playing field, the Diesel engines required 60% more displacement to dish out the same horsepower. This bigger size and weight will make the car itself more expensive to produce.
Absolutely spot on. Petrol - Diesel comparisons atleast in our country has been more often than not been a case of comparing apples with oranges. While all Diesel engines are Turbocharged (well almost all), almost all petrols are NA ones. A more apple to apple comparisons would be the NA diesels with NA petrols and there we see how the balance tilts in favour of Petrols. Replace the Petrol engines we have here with turbocharged ones and then see the performance being taken beyond the reach of diesels. Turbocharged petrols dish out similar performance as Turbocharged Diesels that are almost 60-70% larger. Case in point as mentioned by you the the Eco boost, linea Tjet and Laura TSI.

Is there any diesel car in the same price band and diesel engine in the same displacement category that equals the TSI in performance?
That is why I feel the 1 Litre Ecoboost would be a sort of game changer for petrols in India. We need more mordern Turbo petrols.

Last edited by vibbs : 20th September 2012 at 12:26.
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Old 20th September 2012, 12:50   #104
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Default Re: Diesel Price Hike - end of the market skew in favour of diesels?

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Originally Posted by Turbokick View Post
If the subsidy is completely removed and diesel crosses Rs 70/-, then it will actually slow down the automobile industry. People are already avoiding petrol cars because of high running cost, and things won't get better sence Petrol prices won't come down. Drop in diesel car demand will be like final nail in the coffin
Assuming the government acts rationally, removing the subsidy in diesel prices should actually bring down petrol prices as they are cross subisdising diesel with petrol money (though they deny it).

Of course diesel is used in generator sets which means a lot of other costs rise, and thus vested interests will not permit it to happen.
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Old 20th September 2012, 14:14   #105
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Originally Posted by pganapathy View Post
Assuming the government acts rationally, removing the subsidy in diesel prices should actually bring down petrol prices as they are cross subisdising diesel with petrol money (though they deny it).

Of course diesel is used in generator sets which means a lot of other costs rise, and thus vested interests will not permit it to happen.
Do you really believe that price of Petrol can be cut down by say Rs 5-10/- per litre ? Even at Rs 60/- per litre, its not all that affordable to run a petrol car if your monthly running is on the higher side.
Though one thing we can assume is that petrol prices won't go up as rapidly in the coming time.

If diesel prices go up then I am sure demand for cars will be come down.Maruti,Hyundai,Ford,Tata etc largely depend on their diesel cars for the volume they generate.

While the low mileage running/enthusiasts will stick to petrol cars, rest people who largely depend on their cars will have a tricky situation to face. Maybe they will move a segment down or go the 'cheaper to own' petrol variant.

Just for example a Altis diesel aspirant may end up buying a Verna or Vento diesel.

It won't be a encouraging situation IMO
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