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Old 26th June 2014, 22:10   #76
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Default Re: Reality check for VW: Lowers marketshare target for India

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Originally Posted by Jeroen View Post
Luckily, history has proven you wrong.

Jeroen
You make your point eloquently, but commit a logical fallacy. Comparing the T-Ford and the E-class is very different from comparing a NA and turbo. The E-Class is more reliable because it has the advantage of a hundred years of technological advancement. A NA engine is more reliable than a turbo because it has fewer failure modes. In the next fifty years maybe a turbo will be just as reliable (if not more so) as a NA, if we haven't exhausted our fossil fuel reserves by then. But an AMT in its current design will always be more reliable than a DSG in its current design.
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Old 26th June 2014, 22:54   #77
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Default Re: Reality check for VW: Lowers marketshare target for India

Well, still most people would prefer being treated respectfully by manufacturers and ASCs, get better service, expect a reliable car; all the same time. Strange isn't it?

Last edited by GTO : 27th June 2014 at 17:24. Reason: First line is unwarranted. Please avoid, thanks!
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Old 26th June 2014, 23:15   #78
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Default Re: Reality check for VW: Lowers marketshare target for India

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Originally Posted by blacksport View Post
You may consider us the guinea pigs who use these products so that you can adopt them when they become mature. And if companies like VW become companies like Maruti, the world would never get a DSG. They would be forever running on tried-and-tested technologies.

And for people who don't like being guinea pigs, there is always Maruti.
Oh, so even Germans started using us as guinea pigs? It is often said about Tata cars. But why use us as guinea pigs? Why not perfect the technology and release it then? What are pre-release testings for? I will never call a technology cutting edge if it is not reliable. May be DSG needed few more years of research and getting it right but seems like VAG was in a hurry to release this new technology to gain an upper hand. They probably gambled that things won't go wrong this much.
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Old 27th June 2014, 08:15   #79
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Originally Posted by TheLizardKing View Post
You make your point eloquently, but commit a logical fallacy. Comparing the T-Ford and the E-class is very different from comparing a NA and turbo. The E-Class is more reliable because it has the advantage of a hundred years of technological advancement. A NA engine is more reliable than a turbo because it has fewer failure modes. In the next fifty years maybe a turbo will be just as reliable (if not more so) as a NA, if we haven't exhausted our fossil fuel reserves by then. But an AMT in its current design will always be more reliable than a DSG in its current design.

So what your are saying is that reliability is a function of the number of components primarily? And it will take fifty years for technology to close the "reliability gap" introduced by an extra component. Well, My advise to you would be to keep buying dated technology. Seems you cant go wrong with that. Good luck, I can only wish my small collection of classic cars are as reliable as my current modern ones. And they're not even fifty years old, their technology is only 25-30 years dated.

Jeroen
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Old 27th June 2014, 08:50   #80
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Default Re: Reality check for VW: Lowers marketshare target for India

As all the discussion is on A.S.S and reliability, let me bring products into perspective. Can the Taigun not get VW to ship around 5k units per month?

I feel updated Polo (with 1.2 TSI and 1.5 TDI across the range), Vento (1.2 TSI and 1.5 TDI again, but with DSG option too) and the Taigun can get a very decent market share for VW in the near future. The Jetta is doing pretty well even now.

And alongside that, VW should spend effort on taking care of existing customers, be it regular service or reliability issues. Because that is very important as we don't have strong consumer protection laws here in India. So, people sitting on the fence will never touch a product which can burn a hole in their pocket and bring unnecessary hassle and inconvenience.
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Old 27th June 2014, 09:44   #81
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Default Re: Reality check for VW: Lowers marketshare target for India

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So what your are saying is that reliability is a function of the number of components primarily? And it will take fifty years for technology to close the "reliability gap" introduced by an extra component.

Jeroen
No sir, I am saying that reliability is a function of the number of failure modes in a system. Fifty years was a casual number that I threw out to make my point. I didn't think you would take it so literally. I am the IT application manager for a suite of reliability related software at a company that has more than $10 billion worth of maintainable assets, and I happen to have read up quite a bit on the evolution of maintenance and reliability. Do you know, for example, that the improved safety record of the aviation industry is in large part due to the adoption of what is called Reliability Centered Maintenance? I have attached an interesting paper, do go through it.
Attached Files
File Type: pdf Introduction to RCM - Aladon.pdf (448.2 KB, 261 views)

Last edited by GTO : 27th June 2014 at 17:25. Reason: Line from quoted post deleted
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Old 27th June 2014, 09:48   #82
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Default Re: Reality check for VW: Lowers marketshare target for India

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And alongside that, VW should spend effort on taking care of existing customers, be it regular service or reliability issues. Because that is very important as we don't have strong consumer protection laws here in India. So, people sitting on the fence will never touch a product which can burn a hole in their pocket and bring unnecessary hassle and inconvenience.
You are speaking for me surely. When you know you are unlikely to resolve your troubles fairly, you want to avoid getting into it the first place.

Having said that and having had a wrecked Skoda experience I still booked a Polo TSI 6 years later. My mind just gave up after fighting with my heart for that time

Cheers,
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Old 27th June 2014, 10:30   #83
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Default Re: Reality check for VW: Lowers marketshare target for India

Dear LK,

Everyone buys a cars of his choice and enjoys it. Hardly there is a buyer who is forced to buy a particular car which he does not enjoy driving. It is not that all other cars are duds or feel dull in driving.
If the existing customers are happy with the shortcomings of VW, then I don't see any reason why they should improve or have any problems with achieving the projected market share. But turning a blind eye to all its shortcomings will be disastrous not only for the company but also for the customers on the longer run. For eg, we are talking about the DSG failures, then brushing the matter under the carpet is not the solution to the problem. Be humble, accept it and provide a remedy to all cars equipped with that technology. I am not repeating the points which I have stated probably in most of my posts in this thread which can help VW in achieving a better market share here, so in case you feel like, you may scroll to previous pages for that. Never will I deny the fact that VW is among the premier manufacturers, but if one tries to conceal the errors, then he cannot prosper and that is what is happening at least in India. Plus, you may feel whatever, but a technology which is not reliable is of least use. Hence, you will find it very difficult to defend that point of yours. Also, the real test of ASC is when you face a problem with your car; not during regular service like the troubleshooting skills, patience, spares availability off the shelf, etc.

In one of your posts, you asked that is it ethical for other manufacturers to produce cars which are 'death traps'? Agree to some extent but let me provide another insight to it. One of a known person to me could not afford a car and he used to travel on his bike with his wife and a very young daughter. Finally, he bought an Alto 800 a few months ago and now the family is infinite times safer than travelling on a bike. I am sure that he would not be able to afford even the cheapest car with all safety features. Also, a Polo would have cost him almost twice the money of what he bought, obviously something that he cannot afford at the moment. Would you still call those cars death traps?

Lastly, I find it really funny that why Maruti is being dragged into the discussion of VW market share? There is a thread exclusively for Maruti where even the owners bash the brand on some aspects. So, they have had their share of criticism too, but they must be doing something right if them command about 45% of market share and laughing all the way to the bank and VW must be getting something terribly wrong to hover just around the 1.5% mark, despite their nice cars in the lineup? Follow the pre-made road maps by Maruti of good customer service while following their own principles of engineering & build quality and you have a lethal combination with hardly any reason to fail.

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Oh and guess which is the ONLY car manufacturer in India that now offers airbags as standard across all trims of its entry level car?
Not nit picking, but a lot of cars have airbags even in the base variants. Though I wholeheartedly appreciate VW for the passenger airbag.

That is a long post but you can consider it just 2 cents of mine.

Regards.

Last edited by GTO : 27th June 2014 at 17:25. Reason: Quoted post deleted
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Old 27th June 2014, 11:27   #84
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Default Re: Reality check for VW: Lowers marketshare target for India

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Never will I deny the fact that VW is among the premier manufacturers, but if one tries to conceal the errors, then he cannot prosper and that is what is happening at least in India.
I completely agree. But the point I am trying to make is that that is not the only reason. And the reason I have to drag Maruti into this discussion is because they have defined the expectations of the average Indian customer, and they have not done a very good job at that. The craze for VFM and the "Kitna deti hai?" attitude, to be precise. The only reason they got away with it over the years is because the Indian government has more pressing concerns than automobile safety.

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One of a known person to me could not afford a car and he used to travel on his bike with his wife and a very young daughter.
...
Would you still call those cars death traps?
Yes. No offence to your friend, but traveling on a bike with your wife and a very young daughter is a sign of extreme carelessness and disregard for life. I know everybody cannot afford the top trim of a B2 segment hatch with all safety features, but to call the Alto 800 a safe car is redefining the very concept of safety. It is just a tin box with an engine. And if the only thing it is safer than is a bike, that is not saying a lot. Your friend is experiencing a dangerously misguided sense of safety in his new car. And the only reason he is able to is that the laws today allow Maruti to sell the Alto 800. Its predecessor may have redefined the Indian automobile industry 30 years ago, but it definitely does not deserve to be on the road in 2014.

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That is a long post but you can consider it just 2 cents of mine.
Thank you. I am really happy you took the time out, and I am glad we are seeing some convergence of opinion. On the rest we can agree to disagree.
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Old 27th June 2014, 11:35   #85
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Default Re: Reality check for VW: Lowers marketshare target for India

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Oh, so even Germans started using us as guinea pigs? It is often said about Tata cars. But why use us as guinea pigs? Why not perfect the technology and release it then? What are pre-release testings for? I will never call a technology cutting edge if it is not reliable. May be DSG needed few more years of research and getting it right but seems like VAG was in a hurry to release this new technology to gain an upper hand. They probably gambled that things won't go wrong this much.
You are just picking up phrases from my post to gain an upper hand. This is not a fight where one has to win. I am offering my perspective - of a person who like using these products. Which you are failing to see since you are busy trying to win a fight. Please read and understand what is being said before hitting that reply button.

For the record, I said "you may consider us", not "we are". As long as I am getting value from my car (in this case, the driving pleasure) I am okay with whatever quirks that come along with it. For those who are not like me, there are other tried-and-tested cars. If VW start making boring, old, tried-and-tested cars like most others, people like me would be left with nothing worthwhile.

Now, I have the right to view motoring the way I like, and it is my prerogative to view driving pleasure as a bigger virtue than reliability. I am a person who considers the journey as important as the destination. So while going from point A to point B, I would like to drive something that gives me some pleasure.

A bit off-topic:
Just happened to visit the "Initial Ownership" section, and noticed something peculiar. Of the 20 reports on the first page, 11 of them are from the VW group. So despite all the tirade against VW that I see in the forums, I am glad, that BHPians are still putting their money where it is worth for them.

Last edited by blacksport : 27th June 2014 at 11:59.
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Old 27th June 2014, 12:16   #86
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Default Re: Reality check for VW: Lowers marketshare target for India

Looking at the product line-up,VW should consider getting the Taigun to India as quickly as it can now that the 1.5tdi is also ready. If they price it right, it should do decent numbers outselling the Polo and Vento combined and sustaining such numbers for a longer period too.

I feel they're missing out on the SUV craze in the market since neither Skoda nor VW have a SUV in sub 30 lakh range except for Yeti which doesn't sell much. Skoda is planning to launch a SUV in the T-Fort range and that might just be what the group needs as of now.

Its surprising that they've ignored SUV's in this price bracket, when Audi is doing so well with the far more expensive Q series SUV's

I personally think Up! won't do as well as other hatches in that segment since VW can't compete with Maruti/Hyundai on overall ownership cost which swings decisions easily in that segment. Heck even the Brio became a dud!

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Old 27th June 2014, 12:22   #87
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Default Re: Reality check for VW: Lowers marketshare target for India

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No sir, I am saying that reliability is a function of the number of failure modes in a system. Fifty years was a casual number that I threw out to make my point. I didn't think you would take it so literally. I am the IT application manager for a suite of reliability related software at a company that has more than $10 billion worth of maintainable assets, and I happen to have read up quite a bit on the evolution of maintenance and reliability. Do you know, for example, that the improved safety record of the aviation industry is in large part due to the adoption of what is called Reliability Centered Maintenance? I have attached an interesting paper, do go through it.
Thank you for that introduction. I work for the 5th largest Software company in the world and I have run some pretty interesting software development projects in my early days, up to 2.000.000 manhours in 9 months. I'm also a qualified pilot and I'm associated with various European univerisities for some research and course development work in the areas we are discussing here.

I do hope you and your company are also so studying some more up to date insights then this 1999 paper?

Jeroen

Last edited by Jeroen : 27th June 2014 at 12:24.
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Old 27th June 2014, 12:37   #88
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Default Re: Reality check for VW: Lowers marketshare target for India

An observation on compact X-over pricing

The only sector which is waiting to explode is the premium compact X-over segment. This segment is somewhere in between the C-Segment and D-Segment. I would have loved to call it D-segment. But current D-segments are extending way beyond 20L. And in that bracket, you get big SUVs. They need to get the 15-20L (OTR) range correctly covered. A small amount of overlap is fine. But a big overlap, the segment will suffer, as people prefer the bigger ones.

Another issue is that the bigger SUVs themselves have outpriced the D-Segment. They have gone way-way past 25L range (OTR). So anything 21-22L for the top end premium compact X-over will make it a suspect for sales. Just like the Yeti for example, it would assume to be exorbitantly priced.

Last but not least, the engine capacity selection for this segment, just cannot be overlapped with the bigger SUVs. Because that directly adds to the price. It has to be 1.5/1.6L and the all the pricing HAS to be for the build quality and finish (and not the extra horses).

Now why am I saying this here? Thats simply because, if VW works towards these compact SUV segements, and starts pricing products like Taigun (which is actually a sub 4m and not even proper 5-seater) into 20+ ranges, it will again become a market dud thanks to pricing. They need to study these segments in terms of pricing and also what the product offers for the price.

Last edited by ampere : 27th June 2014 at 12:43.
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Old 27th June 2014, 13:53   #89
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I work for the 5th largest Software company in the world and I have run some pretty interesting software development projects in my early days, up to 2.000.000 manhours in 9 months. I'm also a qualified pilot and I'm associated with various European univerisities for some research and course development work in the areas we are discussing here.

I do hope you and your company are also so studying some more up to date insights then this 1999 paper?
You make unsound arguments, and when called out you throw numbers around and make sarcastic comments. Qualifications don't win you points in a debate. Only valid points do.

I still stand by my point that comparing the E-Class to the Model T is not the same as comparing a naturally aspirated engine to a turbocharged one, at least with respect to reliability, for reasons I have already stated.

PS: That "1999 paper" btw is a classic, and it is as relevant today as it was 15 years ago.

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Old 27th June 2014, 15:44   #90
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Qualifications don't win you points in a debate. Only valid points do.
I fully agree and that's why I was surprised to see your comments:

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I am the IT application manager for a suite of reliability related software at a company that has more than $10 billion worth of maintainable assets, and I happen to have read up quite a bit on the evolution of maintenance and reliability. Do you know, for example, that the improved safety record of the aviation industry is in large part due to the adoption of what is called Reliability Centered Maintenance? I have attached an interesting paper, do go through it.
That gave me the imprssion that title/function and big numbers are very relevant to you, so I thought I'll float a few of my own. Action=Reaction as they say.

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PS: That "1999 paper" btw is a classic, and it is as relevant today as it was 15 years ago.
It's as relevant as Einstein's relativity theory is for a working GPS system. Without it it would not work, but in the context of today it is just a given and doesn't add anything new. It's just basic fundemental stuff.

Now back to the orginal issues around NA and TC engines. In a theoretical model if you simply add a TC to a NA engine, of course the reliability is affected. Not much, but yes it is, see below for some further thoughts on how much.

In practice you can't add a TC to a NA engine. You need to redesign the engine. With a redesign you obviously get a new "reliability". The reliability of an engine depending on number of components and failure modes of the total sytem.

Comparing NA to TC engines is difficult at the best of times if you want to have a apple to apple comparison. How do you compare? Which is the relevant parameter, HP output, torgue, RPM, FE, weight, just to mention a few.

I don't know about India, but in the Western world cars (and engines) have only become more reliable over the years. You don't need to measure it over a very long period either. Talk to organisations such as lease companies and they will confirm. By and the large the next generation of any car tends to be a little better, rarely worse. Of course, there are always some duds as well. A particular car or component that drags the average the other way for a while, (E.g. DSG gear box?) but the general trend is without a doubt a positive one. And at the same time, again without a doubt our car engines have becom more complex with more bits and pieces bolted on to make it work. Never the less, they do get more reliable.

NA Car engines by themselves are hugely reliable. Turbochargers by themselves are probably even more reliable. So when you have a very reliable system (engine) to which you add another component or sub system (ie. the TC) which in itself is also extremely reliable the total reliability of the new total system is hardly affected at all. That's just how the math works.

Also, bear in mind that in reality a TC engine is specifically designed to be that way. So the whole system (design and manufacturing) is optimized to deliver an TC engine with a certain reliability. So you design a NA and a TC engine for a certain reliability. I'm not aware if engine designers conscientiously design a TC engine with a different reliability then a NA. I doubt it somehow. In both cases they will try to get an appropiate reliability for that particular car, market/segment, and a certain cost.

So in theory you're correct, but in practice I don't think it matters at all.

Jeroen
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