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Old 12th December 2014, 12:17   #31
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Default Re: November 2014 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

@Jessie007, have a request , I work in data modelling and predictive analytics space and I am sure there are others on the forum as well. Would it be possible to upload the source MS Excel so that it can be used to predict sales using algorithms?

Thanks in advance.
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Old 12th December 2014, 12:43   #32
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Default Re: November 2014 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Thanks for the much awaited numbers and analysis!

Verna, Xcent, Elantra, Figo, Amaze, Bolero, XUV, Celerio, Ritz, Duster - the cars once sold well - are in an almost-steady decline.

Originally Posted by GTO View Post
The Dzire sees its lowest dispatches of 2014, but I think it's because the updated Swift's production was prioritised over it.
My guess is that Ciaz is eating into DZire volumes.

Originally Posted by extreme_torque View Post
Figo to me rides and handles better than Swift, it cheaper than Swift and is safer than Swift as well and yet it does less than 6th of Swift's sale in a good month. I do not think it can be attributed to service factor alone.

The only thing going for Maruti is the service network
You are contradicting yourself. When it comes to Figo, you think that it is not attributed to service alone, while it comes to Maruti sales, you attribute it to service network!

Even an expert service technician cannot service an all-ill product. And Figo? It was a luck for Ford that such an out-dated looking car sold around 4K units earlier in the B-segment. And it is not an entry level car like Alto, where looks may be the second or third priority for many.

Last edited by romeomidhun : 12th December 2014 at 13:03.
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Old 12th December 2014, 13:07   #33
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As usual wonderful review GTO

Maruti and Hyundai has cemented their positions and it will remain the same for quite long time. Honda seems to be slowly loosing momentum and on the other side Tata is gaining the lost momentum. Toyota is having a fortune(r) with Innova. I wish to know Innova's private and taxi percentage sales. I guess its the loyal taxi market which keep its cash register ringing.

As GTO mentioned, Mahindra has more flop cars and hope they soon rest in peace. XUV has lot its market share more than 30%. As a prospective buyer, I am bit worried. Wondering whether people are bothered about the niggles or is facelift around the corner? Even after three years of it launch, you can see XUV niggles thread is as active as ever. I wish their QA team is more proactive or at least active.
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Old 12th December 2014, 13:16   #34
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There it comes! Thanks to GTO for the wonderful sum up. Nice and Crisp. Most of the Manufacturers keep the trend the same. Loosers keep loosing and the Winners keep winning .
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Old 12th December 2014, 13:27   #35
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Originally Posted by extreme_torque View Post
I for the life of me cannot fathom the numbers Swift keeps doing every month. Its build appalling tinny, the quality is not the best, the ride is harsh, it rattles, the rear is claustrophobic and the boot space is abysmal. Looking at its number I feel cars like Polo and i20 should do even more numbers.
If I was in the market for a hatchback today, I would not touch the Swift even with a bargepole. Outside India the story is different though, the build is visibly better and the car is cheap and fun to drive. Same story with Dzire as well. I feel the competition is as good if not better and yet they do less than half the sales in their best selling month.

No offence to the owners of respective cars. This is just my opinion.
There are some segments that really favours a few brands - Maruti for the entry level segment till B hatchbacks, Honda for C segment, Toyota for luxury UVs etc. These segments give the manufacturers some bandwidth to produce average products, but still have a good lead over the competition in terms of margin and sales. Swift, City and Fortuner are the best examples of this market trend. "You just can't go wrong with a Swift / City / Fortuner now, can you?"

Not only has Swift sales increased, the prices have gone up significantly compared to earlier days. The car feels outdated in the market now, IMO, not the worst out there but not close to being the best either. To it's credit- the styling still remains a big draw close to a decade after the launch of the original- with people still even calling it snazzy, even here on team-BHP. I find it bland now, although it still is a good platform for modifications.

On a related note- I think Hyundai missed a trick with their diesel range. If the Grand / Xcent could have really flown off the shelves with a downsized 1.3L engine derived from the i20 motor. The only negative I see is the cannibasation of the i20, but atleast the Xcent deserved a bigger diesel heart to compete against the DZire.

Last edited by CrAzY dRiVeR : 12th December 2014 at 13:33.
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Old 12th December 2014, 14:31   #36
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Eagerly awaited thread. Thanks for sharing the details. As observed by GTO a mixed month for auto manufacturers. Complete growth recovery yet to be seen.

Maruti is the leader with no threat in foreseen future. It occupies first 4 slots in top 5 and 8 slots in top 20. And they are executing good strategy to keep them ahead of competition

Hyundai at second position, but need to introduce more products in different segments to reach 50k mark. Verna badly needs a replacement reaching the lowest number in this year.

Honda and Mahindra are in seesaw battle for third and fourth place.

Honda now having full production capacity - should report 15k+ numbers consistently in coming months. City has taken the top position in C2 segment. Ciaz production would have been low due to issues in the product which had resulted in recall. So it will be interesting to watch the battle between City and Ciaz in next few months which will decide the leader.

Surprising to see drastic drop in Mahindra numbers. It seems Scorpio is not helping them out.

Toyota hanging on to the fifth position by Innova, Fortuner and Corolla.

Tata is seeing growth and with impending Bolt release, hopefully they will dislodge Toyota from fifth position in near future.

Originally Posted by prakhar1998 View Post
The erratic, and mismanaged supply that Honda is displaying, is disappointing to say the least. This Japanese giant never before had problems that it's facing now. Quality and reliability issues. Manufacturing and distribution mismanagement etc. Honda really needs to pull up its socks. The release of the Jazz isn't going to make matters any better either.
I don't think it is mismanagement resulting in erratic supplies. It is the strategy followed by Honda to overcome their production constraint by mixing their production line. From the numbers it seems they are operating at nearly 100% of their capacity.
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Old 12th December 2014, 15:25   #37
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Excellent post! Thank you.

I was interested in the break-up of Amaze sales in terms of diesel and petrol. Also Amaze offers an automatic too. what would be the sales number there?

Could anyone help or guide me to the numbers?

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Old 12th December 2014, 16:34   #38
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Originally Posted by StarrySky View Post
Octavia is enjoying strong sales in Europe, it will probably be in the Top-10 for 2014 in Europe. If imported kits are required to produce the Octavia in India, then Indian allocations may well be limited. There may also be a problem with RHD markets. I can see people from UK and Aus cribbing about long Octavia waiting periods. Even in the LHD market I'm in, waiting periods of 3-4 months are quoted for the sedan version and 5-6 months for estate version.
If that's the case, it just shows how unimportant the Indian market is to Skoda. That would also explain their lousy management of dealers, and generally everything in India.

This link tells me 30,000+ Octavias were delivered in a month (globally). If India doesn't even get 1% of the global allocation, clearly, Skoda isn't bothered with India. They couldn't care less.

I echo the sentiments of others. Why launch a car here if you can't even push out merely 200 - 300 units / month?

What kind of lame attitude is that from a company that is either last or second last on the charts? Oh wait, it's this attitude that threw them down in the first place.

Originally Posted by kiku007 View Post
What would be the amount of money burned by the bottom 9 Manufacturers in the past 10 Years?!
Here's a related thread : link (Chevrolet's losses at Rs. 1598 crores in India)

Last edited by GTO : 12th December 2014 at 16:36.
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Old 12th December 2014, 16:49   #39
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Who knows the Indian market better? MSIL all the way

Its really fascinating to see how MSIL adopts to the change in market and preferences!
I see many people give credit to the MSIL ASS alone, for this success. If that was the case, why did Baleno, SX4, A-Star etc failed?
Over these years they have developed good reliable cars (leave build quality aside for the moment) which are easy on pocket.

I wonder how they keep developing new cars and facelifts at will, while other global players like Fiat/VW/Scoda fail to launch new products in many years.

And boy! look at the new cars in line for next 1-2 years from MSIL..SX4 Cross, XA-Alpha, Next gen Grand Vitara, WagonR based MPV (?) etc and many of them with 1.5/1.6 ltr engines to cope up with competition. They might well squeeze AMT into all other remaining cars including Ertiga.
Well, that was a bit , but i guess relevant to know why they sell more cars!!!

Now coming to the analysis, GTO and other experts have already analyzed the report very well, now just 2 cents from my side.

1. Mobilio though gained some numbers, but still a cry from Ertiga numbers. Despite 2.5 year old model, Ertiga holds the fort. Same for Amaze, it dented DZire numbers when it was launched but now it has past its glory, while DZire remains Numero-Uno. I'm happy to see this happening to Amaze & Mobilio, as except engine (but noisy), they look half-baked products due to poor build quality and less features.
2. God save those who still buys OMNI.
3. Despite delivery glitches and recalls, Ciaz continued with good numbers. Remember, the Top end model is yet to be rolled out and the same for Automatic version. I won't be surprised to see Ciaz overtaking mighty City in 2 or 3 months time.

Note: I'm not a MSIL fanboy as it may sound, but i just explained rational behind the numbers IMHO.
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Old 12th December 2014, 16:55   #40
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I think manufacturers should give us more Feature-Hatches rather than plonking the market with bare bone compact sedans. Hyundai did a good thing in bringing in the Elite i20. Companies should bring in the VW Golf, Honda Civic TypeR, Toyota Yaris and similar "power hatches" and people will lap them up instantly.

Ofcourse mileage sensitive population will stick to Altos and WagonRs, but the urban crowd will need some pizzazz in their cars and the traffic woes of the city will encourage smaller hatches rather than dull and minimalistic C1 sedans.

How many of you will bet a change in the C1 v/s B3( if such a segment ever existed??) trends if such a thing happens? Thankfully, we will get rid of the "glue a boot onto that hatch" designs of C1 segments and will be able to see some stylish wheels on our streets.
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Old 12th December 2014, 17:28   #41
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Default Re: November 2014 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Xcent, Amaze and now Zest have eaten into the Manza, Sunny, Scala territory. Etios sells mostly for taxis now.

In the coming days, Zest should see better numbers mostly in the 5k range. With Bolt coming in and Liva/Micra/Swift/i10 Grande upgrades nowhere near, it too shall catch up on some decent volumes.

I remember, when the Vista Refresh was launched, it did sell in the range of 10-11 k for a good 4-5 months. Let's see if the bolt can reach 5-6k mark.

Having said that, probably Tata will overtake Toyota in the December rankings.
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Old 12th December 2014, 17:33   #42
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Originally Posted by extreme_torque View Post
There is not ONE person I know, not one, who bought the Swift because it handles well. Also none from my circle of friend's is a repeat Maruti customer except one who has an old Dzire and went for Ertiga. Figo to me rides and handles better than Swift, it cheaper than Swift and is safer than Swift as well and yet it does less than 6th of Swift's sale in a good month. I do not think it can be attributed to service factor alone.

The only thing going for Maruti is the service network which more often than not are pretty good and if not, the company makes sure that they are taken to task and the resulting peace of mind which is a huge factor for sales in Tier II cities and it is something which others cannot match except may be Tata and Hyundai and yet it does not explain their sales in Metro's or Tier I cities. To me Maruti is an appliance company which makes them for as cheap as possible (nothing wrong with it until you start compromising on the build for lightness in interests of economy and economy only) and they are for most part reliable. I guess I am not that category of customer. Again my personal opinion with no offence to anyone.
Brother, what are you even saying!

Using such hyperboles as //build appalling tinny, quality is not the best and the ride is harsh//, wouldn't help us be more certain of your opinions. Like what has been said above, car buying is different from buying other costly products in that the service is increasingly crucial.

But leave After-Sales factor, where it ever does better admittedly, doesn't Swift beat most hatchbacks in terms of Interiors, Overall ride and Handling as well? Especially, for me, the frontal interior design with the knurled dashboard, is several notches up compared to anything else in the range, and probably higher. The rattles have been covered better in the 2012 ed.

If you rank the cars in this segment on such factors, Swift would consistently rank 1 or 2, and then rank numero uno on After Sales. Overall then, it would beat competition with a score that would be reflective of the sales it garners.

Think of it as a "sweet spot" performance. The Sales are telling!
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Old 12th December 2014, 18:20   #43
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Awesome compilation as always.

Chevrolet brand frightens me, more so as I own a Beat.

How can this level of incompetence and bad performance go unnoticed ?

I am frightened for the re-sale value of my Car now. Hope Chevrolet does not go down the Opel or Daewoo way (Cielo, Astra & Corsa etc.).

Should I start thinking of selling my Chevrolet Beat ?

Last edited by charanreddy : 12th December 2014 at 18:22. Reason: Typo.
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Old 12th December 2014, 19:06   #44
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Default Re: November 2014 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

9 of 20 cars in the list from the Maruti stable. Awesome !!!

Spotted the Ciaz on the streets and while the engines are not much to write home about, as an overall package it looks good. Will sell.

BTW all the hype in the media/web about the Indian Swift being built of tin-foil does not seem to have had any impact on its sales.
Infact sales has increased over last month.

Originally Posted by GTO
I can't figure out the Octavia story: On the one hand, numbers are so poor, on the other, dealers claim long waiting periods for some variants. Is there actually a shortage of supplies, or is the company simply building small numbers?
I guess no one can figure this out. A colleague has booked an Octavia-D and inspite of this being end-of-year (discounts galore for even cars that sell well), not only are there no discounts, they cite long waiting periods. He is getting a Jun-2014 model (I asked him to get the VIN and decode). Knowing Skoda-dealer antics, I personally would not pay 20L for a 6-month old car, which for all one knows would have been a demo-car or worse.

And all this with the snooty take-it-or-leave-it attitdue. And this by a company selling just a few hundred cars monthly across all the 4 models. Can't imagine what they would do if their cars actually sold well.

Last edited by supremeBaleno : 12th December 2014 at 19:10.
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Old 12th December 2014, 19:48   #45
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The Dzire too needs to pursue the new swift with all the added bells & whistle, although 14009 units is not bad at all, but I think the numbers can still drop some more as the competitors are increasing in the sub 4 meter class.

News is that VW group is also planning on a budget sub 4 meter car for 2015-16, and it's now focusing more on budget cars to augment its struggling market share. VW looks like it's under immense pressure; Skoda nor VW are showing up good numbers, so they are now trying to target the budget segment.

The elite i20 came out to be a stunner , it simply looks amazing and arguably the best hatch on road. Hyundai has done a great job in its development, I feel Hyundai is the only company who is constantly thriving in all segments and always doing something new to enlarge its market share.

Last edited by GTO : 13th December 2014 at 16:48. Reason: Typos
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