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Old 7th February 2015, 11:35   #46
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Default Re: January 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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Originally Posted by theexperthand View Post
Thank you for the thread but however, as Ghodlur rightly mentions:



The thread lacks what made it unique - the detailed analysis from GTO and others. Of late, this is just a statistics thread and I think this have watered down the value of this thread tremendously.

Even if this will take few more days to publish, please bring back the old format.

--Anoop
since the trend is more or less same, i think GTO is right in reserving his comments and publish the same when he feels the need for the same.

I am of the opinion statistics is very useful for people intend to have buy/ sell transactions

I do agree with you and felt when the volatility was very high and many new models were introduced three four years back GTO's analysis was eye opener for many.

finally it is a trade off. thread is good and eagerly awaited by many of us.
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Old 7th February 2015, 12:05   #47
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Default Re: January 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Other than a couple of models from Maruti and Hyundai and Honda's City, there are not many consistent performers in the passenger cars. They go up and down based on production constraints!

Tata will be wondering on what to do with their cars. Hope they stop using the familiar packaging of Indica in their cars. You still see the same influence.
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Old 7th February 2015, 12:08   #48
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Default Re: January 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

There have been a few comments about Zest being a failure, which is perhaps not something we should be saying at this point. The Zest has gone into one of the most competitive segments where it is not going to be easy to sell. Apart from that a number of Zest buyers are looking for diesel AMT and that Tata is not able to deliver due to supply constraints. I think it deserves a chance; so perhaps we should wait and watch.

The Bolt seems to have got off to a reasonable start and looks like Tata has decided not to stuff huge numbers of it down the dealers throats, which is a sensible thing to do. The Bolt's job is even more difficult than that of the Zest and it is not going to succeed (if at all it does) without a lot of trial and tribulations. I think yet again holding the horses should be the case here before pronouncing it as a success or a failure.

I have always said that Tata should push the Nano better, not with stupid advertisement campaigns but with salesman on the show room. I remember in the year 2000 when the Wagon R and the Alto were launched they sold in paltry numbers. They had no diesel engines and the difference in price between petrol and diesel in those days was as much as the difference between the earth and the moon. Yet Maruti trained its personnel to sell the cars by talking to customers about driving cycles and how much of driving per month justified investment in a diesel. Well the Alto has gone to the top of the heap and Wagon R sells consistently around 12,000 units per month. Tata's salesman know zilch about their cars in general and even less about the car industry.

The Nano is the third largest selling car this month after the Zest and Bolt and though the combined numbers of Indigo-Manza and Indica-Vista are slightly more if we were dis-aggregate those figures it is the Nano that is third. I am a bit concerned that Tata is not moving fast enough on the Nano. It needs to put the Nano with the rear opening hatch, the AMT, and more consistent build quality into showrooms and that will draw the customers. And their salesman should be taught how to sell that car. If they do this before competition arrives from Datsun, Maruti etc the car will survive. Otherwise it will be absolutely curtains for it and that will be a great pity considering that it is a truly good car. Service intervals of 10,000 kms, cheap spares make the Nano ownership a joy. Tata could of course play kill joy. But I hope not.
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Old 7th February 2015, 13:15   #49
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Default Re: January 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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The Nano is the third largest selling car this month after the Zest and Bolt and though the combined numbers of Indigo-Manza and Indica-Vista are slightly more if we were dis-aggregate those figures it is the Nano that is third. I am a bit concerned that Tata is not moving fast enough on the Nano. It needs to put the Nano with the rear opening hatch, the AMT, and more consistent build quality into showrooms and that will draw the customers. And their salesman should be taught how to sell that car. If they do this before competition arrives from Datsun, Maruti etc the car will survive. Otherwise it will be absolutely curtains for it and that will be a great pity considering that it is a truly good car. Service intervals of 10,000 kms, cheap spares make the Nano ownership a joy. Tata could of course play kill joy. But I hope not.
+1 to what you said about Nano, it is a great product unfortunately not selling as much as it should.

I remember seeing huge number of Tata Nano's in manali, more than what i was used to see on Mumbai/Pune roads, i was infact surprised to see a Nano near Rohtang pass. On speaking to some of the owners the feedback i got was that all seem to be pretty satisfied with the vehicle, it seemed tailor made for the narrow roads of Manali or as a matter of fact for any small city in India with small roads and confined parking spots.

As far as updates for Nano i am not sure about the rear opening hatch and AMT but i know for sure that a durability simulation study for Nano with front disc brakes was done along with a couple of other improvements.

Hope Tata does something about this gem.
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Old 7th February 2015, 13:35   #50
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Default Re: January 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Thanks Aditya for the excellent stats. Below are my views on the sales figure for last month.

Maruti: Highest sales figure in the whole last year and crossing 100k for the first time in 6 months. Growing from strength to strength. Nothing much to tell about them as they hardly keeping a wrong foot.

Indians are happy with generations old Alto than the latest Celerio which IMO has not done much after the initial hype. Ciaz figures will be encouraging for Maruti but I expect it to settle around 4.5k in the coming months. Eeco and dangerous Omni are still doing decent numbers in UV segment.

Hyundai: A distant second, compared to both the first and the third place holders. Seeing the current standings, the first and second positions will remain unchanged at least for an year.

Elite i20 and Grand i10 continue their magical run. Combined, they challenge the Swift numbers which I think is quite awesome. Xcent however is not being fancied by many. Eon is decent but I guess Hyundai should stop the older i10 as it does not seem to do much justice. They might however try to position it in the space left vacant by Santro. Verna numbers have stooped to an unbelievable low and might improve a bit once the facelift comes, however does not seem capable enough to challenge the mighty City and fresh Ciaz. Elantra has totally surrendered to Corolla and Santa Fe is doing good for its price with Fortuner light-years ahead.

Honda: Fighting neck to neck with Mahindra for the bronze medal, Honda has just won it this month by just a few 100s. This fight could getting more interesting if Tata can post slightly better figures. However, Honda is almost touching its peak capacity which I think is not the case with Mahinda and Tata. This should actually worry Honda as the launch of Jazz is also approaching close.

Amaze is amazing with its see-saw numbers. This month is posted over 6k beating Xcent and Zest very convincingly. The quirky but capable Brio is never going to recover and will ponder around the 1-1.5k mark. City is ruling the C2 segment but is facing some heat with Ciaz coming closer this month. Mobilio numbers are not very good but I guess Honda will be happy with the fat margins it would give considering the hefty pricing. Its the profit that matters and its either High numbers + Low margin or Low numbers + High margin. Honda might be happy with the latter as it would result in lesser strain on its production line which is running almost full capacity.

Mahindra: Who would have imagined that someone selling only UVs and most of them priced over 10L will fight with Honda so closely and be positioned fourth. These guys either have super hits or utter duds.

Bolero, Scorpio and XUV are selling very good numbers while Quanto, Verito twins and Xylo are posting utter poor numbers. Rexton numbers are OK-ish.

Tata: Tata had a wonderful opportunity to come back with a big bang but I guess they have miserably failed to use it. Zest and Bolt had a lot of buzz in the market but did Tata do well to capitalize that? No.

Bolt numbers at 2.5k is pathetic for a capable car. When they had an excellent USP in Diesel + AMT, they chose to promote Revotron big time and boasted happily that petrol oversold diesel. There is a constraint in procuring AMT module, but Tata could have done better to make the market aware of their USP. Maruti did such a wonderful campaign for Celerio AMT that many thought it was the first car in India without a clutch. Now with Bolt, they have slightly messed up the pricing which might push more people towards Zest itself. But then, Tata will be happy if the customer stays within Tata showroom itself. Nano crossing 2k is good for Tata. None of the other models have much to talk about.

Toyota: Totoya proves how important the tag "Reliability" is to the Indian customer. If Maruti has VFM as its USP its Reliability for Toyota. Service is another plus for both these brands.

Innnova, Fortuner and Corolla are reaping gold for Toyota. Etios + Liva + Cross are not doing much than giving Toyota a presence in the respective segments. Camry IMO is doing OK numbers.

Ford: They are selling only Ecosports and they want any Ford customer to buy only Ecosport. Not sure why such a step-motherly treatment to their own products like Fiesta. Figo is back in business but is nothing compared to its initial days. It has become outdated long back and the numerous facelifts didn't do much good. Endeavor is not doing good either. Hope the soon to be launched Figo and Figo sedan can change the fate for Ford.

Chevrolet: None of their cars sell well. None managed to touch even 1.5k. None of their cars are in top 20 sellers. However they managed to capture the 8th spot. Simply because they sell so many cars. So many bits and pieces cars each selling a bit and contribute to the overall sales. Not a single flagship product not a single exciting product (probably barring Cruze). High time they reinvent themselves or simply remain in the market with not any role to play. Chevrolet is just like an extra-actor in the crowd on the screen, not doing any value-add. Neither to the market nor to themselves.

Volkswagen: Take out Polo and Vento, they sold 6 cars. Polo and Vento themselves are not selling much. They are capable products, but unbelievably old (at least on the outside). Time-less design is fine and good. But how long will you sell the very same product. High time they bring in the next generations and also new products to the product.

Renault: Duster, Duster and only Duster. Duster is to Renault what Ecosport is to Fort. Luckily for them, they had the first-mover advantage in their respective segments and hardly have any competition. Come the day they get proper competition, they are doomed. Unfortunately, the day is not very far with Hyundai bringing in iX25 and Maruti bringing in S-Cross. Renault better launch Lodgy with sensible pricing else their overall sales numbers will go down to 100s.

Nissan: A highly under-rated brand in India. They however have themselves to be blamed for the low numbers. Unexciting products, poor marketing, very poor strategies all have resulted in this. The only product that sold over 1000 was the re-branded Duster. How sad.

Datsun: IMO, Datsun is doing pretty decent to sell 800 copies of Go and Go+. Unknown brand + only petrol + very less outlets and still selling over the likes of Fiat and Skoda is remarkable. This however shows the sorry state of Fiat and Skoda too - Even Datsun sold more cars than them.

Skoda: Came into the Indian market well before parents VW, selling equally capable and more VFM cars but posting numbers only one-third the numbers. Reason? Attitude. A.S.S should not treat customers like @$$, it is as simple as that. Not sure when they will learn the lesson. Hope they are not thrown out of the Indian market scene before they learn their lessons.

Fiat: Fanboys say they make the best cars. They actually make real good cars. Almost 40% of the diesel cars sold in India run on their engines. This description should give an impression that I am talking about one of the top 2 car manufacturers in India. However, this is all about the brand languishing in the bottom two. How many cars do they manage to sell? Mostly less than 1000 cars a month. Only once in last 12 months have they manages to touch 1.5k. What an irony.

HM - Mitsubishi: Are they still in market Ohh they are selling a few Pajeros. Yes, thats all about a brand that once defined Indian auto scene - The manufacturers of legendary Ambassador.
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Old 7th February 2015, 18:26   #51
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Default Re: January 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Believe Honda deserves credit for regaining third spot. All their products compete with Maruti & Hyundai head-on. They are formidable marketeers and one must give them their dues. Relaunch of Jazz is expected to be interesting.

Toyota is quite consistent in numbers. With little luck on Zest/Bolt, Tata should develop a lead over them in numbers. IMO, end of this quarter would establish their ranking firmly.

Though rest look also-ran if one evaluate the numbers alone, some of them offer really mean machines. Likes of VW, Ford, Skoda,.. do make the horizon colorful. If such competition is not around, the leaders will not be on their toes making overall market dull.

A small point. Can appreciate the reason to aggregate numbers of Indigo/Manza or Liva/Cross but wonder why Fiesta & Classic are slotted together. Despite their minuscule sale, would request if their individual numbers can be intimated.
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Old 7th February 2015, 23:08   #52
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Default Re: January 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Data never lies. The state of VW in India is something the group has to take into consideration. The D1 and D2 segment are no longer looking like an investment option for VW unless they change not only their product but also the price and the way they can market this segment. Clearly Skoda is eating into their own product which means they need a completely different strategy if they want VW as a brand in india. Even polo is taking a hit while toytoa and honda are starting to show movement up . Not just for the month of Jan but over a period where the sales figures it also appears that people are either happy with C2 segment or they are moving upto D2. Where the D2 sales figures are approximately similar to D1.

Anyway to pull a chart of this trend of people skipping levels by comparing the price point of each segment and plotting a trend of cars sold in those segments.
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Old 7th February 2015, 23:23   #53
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Default Re: January 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Wondering how much had the duty hike boosted january month sales(2014 models) and how much is it going to affect february sales?
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Old 7th February 2015, 23:35   #54
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Wondering how much had the duty hike boosted january month sales(2014 models) and how much is it going to affect february sales?
May the budget hatchback and part of C1 segment sales would come down due to price hike.

The price offset would mean certain customers delaying further due to lack of extra funds/loans to orchard the car.
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Old 8th February 2015, 17:26   #55
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Default Re: January 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

If the figures denote dispatches, then even with shared capacity I am not sure why the Vento/Rapid figures are in the current bracket. On every possible thread in the C1/C2 segment a Diesel + Auto was termed as the god send. It now has happened but why these figures? Is it the brand or is it the style? Worldwide VW is much bigger than many of the manufacturers that is lags behind in India. They have launched something that no one really one else has that is a sub 10 L, refined, capable Auto trany with a D heart. Go the showroom and the waiting period for the DSG Vento is at least 2 months for more of less any color. So what do these figures tell? Is there a production line capacity issue with VW? Or is it that the Auto is a pure urban, rather driving weary urban phenomenon, and that India still does not see the benefit in it? Or is it just styling? If the Vento DSG were say a Honda DSG what do you think might have happened? I guess the ambitions from VW don't match their campaigning strategy. There is not a featureless car (unlike the Duster, where you still really need to get down to push the seat up!), not is it really bad ergonomics or less efficient. I guess VW is not putting their heart into sales. Seems like they showcase they have the best and wait for people to flock them. Or am I too early to make these statements, and are things in motion?
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Old 8th February 2015, 17:36   #56
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Default Re: January 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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If the figures denote dispatches, then even with shared capacity I am not sure why the Vento/Rapid figures are in the current bracket. On every possible thread in the C1/C2 segment a Diesel + Auto was termed as the god send. It now has happened but why these figures? Is it the brand or is it the style?
Apart from the Auto + Diesel heart combo, there are other factors like Brand value, reliability, word-of-mouth value, general perception the market for he car and the manufacturer and the most important After Sales Service.

VW needs to improve in all these areas, hope it does to flourish. It has only the Polo and Vento that is keeping them at the market share. Get these two cars out and then what you see is VW is out of the charts.

They need better portfolio with a different/new design language along with Diesel + DSG combo.
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Old 8th February 2015, 20:43   #57
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Default Re: January 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

My two cents - I think the most important lesson all the laggards can learn from the market leaders (Maruti-Suzuki, Hyundai) is that after-sales service (combination of reach, quality, cost and other soft factors that result in good and consistent customer experience) matters a lot. Probably why Tata Zest numbers are not showing good progress despite an excellent product. I was one of those who voted for Zest as the Team-BHP COTY.


I hope Tata will recognize the value of having after-sales service on par with market leaders and take appropriate steps in that direction.

Also, with regard to the American MNCs (Ford, GM), have they invested sufficiently in product engineering for the Indian market? I don't mean "engineering" in the technical sense only, but the entire gamut of what goes into a product that makes the Indian customer want their cars.
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Old 9th February 2015, 12:55   #58
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Default Re: January 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Just thinking aloud - this report should also include manufacturers like Benz, BMW, Audi and JLR. While not all may be doing more than 500 units a month, they surely contribute to a large part of the revenues. Also with most of them going into the sub 30L range, their MOM numbers will add lots of spice to this article.
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Old 9th February 2015, 14:48   #59
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Default Re: January 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

A quick look reveals that the Swift and the Grand i10 just posted their best figures in last 6 months, including the October-November festive season. Not to mention the very recent excise duty hike.

Wondering if the Bolt is really eating-in or giving-away more numbers ? Looks like people waited for the Bolt, went to the Tata showroom, got the quote, and then went ahead and bought a Swift or Grand i10.
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Old 9th February 2015, 14:58   #60
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Default Re: January 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

I share the same surprise as few others here to the Zest numbers. However, I think it's early to call it a dud. One has to look at the context in which Tata has brought this product in to the market. The confidence in the brand was at an all time low and they just couldn't sell anything! I think Zest should pick up and stabilize around 3.5-4k units once people start hearing good things about it.
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