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Old 5th March 2015, 02:42   #31
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Default Re: February 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Thanks Aditya for these excellent stats. Nice work!!! Now that you guys are not giving out your views, we will all give our views. Below are my views on the sales figure for last month.

Maruti: Last month they registered the highest sales figure in an year. This time, they have outsold it by a decent margin. Can hardly put a foot wrong and upcoming vehicles like S-Cross, new premium hatchback and the mini-SUV are all going to take the figures up only.

25k Altos, 20k Swifts, 17k Dzires are all unbelievable figures. Each one of them has outsold every other manufacturer other than Hyundai (Dzire is just less than Mahindra's overall sales). Generations old Omni and tinny little Celerio have individually outsold brands like Ford, VW, etc (all except top 6). Ciaz, Ertiga, Eeco have all posted decent figures. Ritz and age old Gypsy are the only cars selling below 2k.

Hyundai: Even though a distant second, Hyundai is not going to see a fall in sales for a long time in the future. The way they introduce new products and refresh them periodically is simply awesome. if the trend continues, the current first and second positions will remain unchanged at least for an year.

Elite i20 has crossed 10k once again and it is really amazing to see such an expensive hatchback posting such figures. Grand i10 also continue its success run with over 8k sold last month. Combined, they are closing down on the Swift numbers which is no mean achievement. Xcent numbers are not very encouraging though. Looks like Hyundai is selling i20 to a lot of potential Xcent customers. Eon and i10 have also posted decent numbers and have sold a bit more than last month. Verna deliveries seems to have shown a spike but I guess most of it could be showroom display and test-drive models. Somehow it does not seem capable enough to challenge the City and Ciaz. Elantra is not really posting great numbers compared to Corolla or Octavia or even the Jetta. Santa Fe is doing well for its price.

Mahindra: Reaching the third spot selling just UVs is simply amazing. Either they sell awesome numbers in 1000s or just low 100s. Only model of theirs selling over 200 and less than 2000 is the Xylo.

Bolero, Scorpio and XUV are unbeatable in their respective segments and have a very good hold on the semi-urban and rural markets. Nothing much to talk about Quanto, Verito twins and Xylo and they are posting dismal numbers. Rexton numbers are OK-ish.

Honda: Honda has lost the third spot to Mahindra this month by just 500 units. This is a wonderful see-saw fight happening every month. Interesting. Would be really good if Tata and Toyota can post slightly better figures and that could make the fight very interesting. Honda is almost touching its peak especially with them exporting Jazz to South Africa. Is that why Honda is not giving a clear picture of the launch of Jazz in India?

Amaze has grown a bit retaining the second spot in the sub 4m sedans. This month again it posted over 7k comfortably beating the Xcent and Zest. Brio is never going to recover and will do around the 1-1.5k mark only. City has dropped a bit but is still ruling the C2 segment with a good margin. Mobilio numbers have dwindled further dropping to its lowest in 6 months. 1600 is definitely a flop from Honda perspective. Not sure why they still maintain that they are having a very good demand for Mobilio. They have not raised the price for Mobilio alone post the excise duty cut. That itself proves that Mobilio was over-priced and does not really deserve a premium.

Tata: Tata is not able to convert the interest and buzz on the new launches into sales numbers. Such a shame that a wonderful opportunity is lost.

Indica+Vista selling more than Bolt and Indigo+Vista selling more thannn Zest is simply unbelievable. Are there some discounts or deals running for the older models?? How else can we explain this. Who is at mistake here - Tata motors or its customers?? Numbers of 2k and 2.5k is pathetic for such capable cars. Nano is back again to familiar territory of ~1.5k. Sumo numbers are decent but cannot hold a candle to Bolero numbers. Aria needs to be replaced by good looking Hexa ASAP and I am sure it will make an impact. Safari is also selling much below Scorpio.

Toyota: Totoya has taken the "Reliability" tag so far and charging a lot of premium. However, Indian customer looks to be mighty impressed by this USP.

High profit models like Innnova, Fortuner and Corolla are getting excellent numbers for Toyota and are kings of their respective segment. Cheap Etios + Liva + Cross are also doing familiar numbers of ~2-2.5k. 0 Camry is unbelievable. Looks like dealers were not able to sell much of the 97 Camrys dispatched last month. 48 Prados dispatched this month might be good enough for the next 6 months

Ford: Overall sales dropped below 6k which is less than even what just Celerio managed. Take away 4.2k Ecosports and they sold just about as much as Mobilio. Figo's drop from last month is almost same as the drop in Ford's overall figures. Which means all other models have sold almost identical numbers as last month.

Volkswagen: Chevy and VW have been swapping their positions each month and this time the Germans beat the Americans!!! By just less than 50 units. This in-spite of Polo numbers dropping a bit. All thanks to the new Jetta. But hold on - they might not be exact sales figures. They have to send the new Jetta to showrooms as display pieces. Dont they? God knows when they are going to enter big number segments like sub 4m sedan, CUV, mini-SUV, etc. High time they bring in the next generations of the Polo / Vento and also new products to the market.

Chevrolet: None of their cars managed to touch even 1.5k. Most of them sell below 500. However they compete with VW and beat the likes of Fiat and Skoda comprehensively. They have so many bits and pieces cars each selling a bit and contribute to the overall sales. High time they reinvent themselves or simply remain in the market with not any role to play.

Renault: Take away 3k odd Duster and they hardly sell 500 cars. Luckily for them, they hardly have any competition. Come the Hyundai iX25 and Maruti S-Cross, Renault is doomed. Lodgy however should bring in some decent numbers. Not sure how successful their rumored small car will be especially since it will compete with Maruti's bread and butter cars.

Nissan: Unfortunately a highly under-rated brand in India. Very unfortunate that they have fallen behind their French partners. Who is to be blamed - Nissan itself. Unexciting and dated products, non-existent marketing, 0 confidence inspiring A.S.S. None of their products sold over 1000 and shows the confidence Indians have on this brand.

Datsun: A never heard before, unknown Datsun is selling more cars than Skoda - a brand that has been in India long enough to be a blockbuster seller. With a petrol only range and miniscule sales outlets and still selling over the Fiat and Skoda is remarkable. However, that is hardly an achievement considering they sell only bare-bone low cost models. IMO, they ought to sell at least 1.5k each of Go and Go+s.

Skoda: Came into the Indian market well before parents VW and have been in market long enough to gain all the goodwill in the world. What they managed to achieve instead was to go below the goodwill they had even on Day 1. Pathetic attitude. worst A.S.S have become their brand image. Nothing much to say.

Fiat: In-spite of not being a Fiat fan, my heart bleeds when I see Fiat right at the bottom of the charts selling 500 odd cars in a market where they have been longer than all other competitors. Posting their worst figures in a long long time, there is not much to speak about the numbers.

HM - Mitsubishi: They sell a few Pajeros and this month they sold lesser than last month. God knows when they plan to sell other cars here.
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Old 5th March 2015, 08:01   #32
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Default Re: February 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

A different perspective - I was just curious to know how well Toyota is doing in India. Instead of looking at volumes (total cars sold in a month), I tried looking at total value of the sales.

Please refer to attached image. I have used a crude methodology wherein I have taken base variant (petrol price where both petrol and diesel models are available) Pune showroom price as reference.

February 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis-car-sales-figures.png

Analysis - Toyota has 10% of Volume of Maruti but 25% in terms of Sales value. Whereas Hyundai has 35% of volume of Maruti but only 40% in terms of Sales value.

Toyota would be really happy with how they are performing. We don't have insight into profit margin but I am sure they would be enjoying hefty margins too with Innova and Fortuner.
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Old 5th March 2015, 08:23   #33
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Default Re: February 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by Simhi View Post
Analysis - Toyota has 10% of Volume of Maruti but 25% in terms of Sales value.
Eeco at 4702 units and Omni at 6599 units. I am sure those two are bringing a lot of fat profit for MSIL. And add to it the very simple supply chain + sales and service support for these products as they both are bare bones UVs. The dealers too might be loving them.

But high time Govt. does something about vehicles like the Omni. Its way past its sell by date on account of safety.

Nice to see good numbers for the Octavia since the turn of the year. Hope this not them exhausting the allocation for the whole year for our market. VW seems to be making a lot of new Jettas. Lets see how it goes over the next 3 months.

Zest seems to be losing steam fast.

Quote:
Originally Posted by rsidd View Post
The new i20 is a seriously eye-catching car (and I am speaking as a Punto owner). Not sure if that's the reason but it can't hurt. Plus it has generous internal space, both passenger and boot. I won't be surprised if the i20 is the main thing hurting Punto sales this time around. Possibly Polo sales too, which have dropped 11% this month and nearly 20% in two months. Those are the only comparable cars on the market -- the Swift is much smaller.
The Polo being much smaller than the Swift is a misconception. The Swift is relatively bigger on the outside and also got a bigger cabin (similar space at the front and got much better room at the rear when compared to Polo). Polo has better boot space though. Polo got a bigger diesel engine and the overall quality level is a step up.

The i20 is a size bigger than both inside out and the overall quality match that of the Polo. No wonder its a hit with the masses.

Last edited by deetjohn : 5th March 2015 at 08:41. Reason: adding text.
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Old 5th March 2015, 08:26   #34
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Default Re: February 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by Simhi View Post
Toyota would be really happy with how they are performing. We don't have insight into profit margin but I am sure they would be enjoying hefty margins too with Innova and Fortuner.
Your spreadsheet seems to miss data for Etios and Camry. That might boost numbers by 300 -400 crore per month.

Toyota is in-fact loosing money since last three years. It will post this year's performance in early april, as of last April it made a loss of 62 crore.

Maruti made a profit of 2,700 crore in same period.

http://archive.financialexpress.com/...e-fy12/1301233

http://www.moneycontrol.com/financia...ofit-loss/MS24
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Old 5th March 2015, 09:32   #35
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Default Re: February 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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Originally Posted by romeomidhun View Post
Toureg
This has been phased out long time back. Unsure as to why it is still present in the Excel sheet. I will bring it to the TEAM's attention anyway.

Touareg and Phaeton were non starters from day 1.

EDIT: Surprised to see 1 shipment of Touareg in Jan '15. But the website of Volkswagen doesn't feature it any more.

__________________________________________________ __________

While I somehow do understand as to why Mobilio doesn't sell, I am surprised to see Terrano not selling as much as Duster.

Last edited by Sheel : 5th March 2015 at 09:40.
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Old 5th March 2015, 10:13   #36
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Default Re: February 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

The most anticipated thread of the month is here.

Lets tabulate it in filmi terms!!

1) All Time Blockbusters

Sholay, DDLJ, 3 Idiots, PK = Alto, Dzire, Swift, Wagon R

The top quadruple never changes.
This is so boring!!

Dont MSIL feel they need some spice up there on top?
Sure they do. That's why the chrome facelifts happen!!

But, on a serious note, the company is doing a commendable job.
Close to 1 lac sales just from 4 models of which 2 of them are over a decade old (WR and Alto) though on newer platforms.

2) Blockbuster of the Year
Dabangg, Ek Tha Tiger, Chennai Express = Elite i20, Grand i10, Amaze, City, Ciaz

Amaze has a yo yo but over the last three months, has been consistently featuring as the second fiddle in the sub 4 metre sedan wars to the Dzire.

Elite i20 was/is a marked improvement over earlier i20 and deserved to be among the nos. Grand i10 seems to have picked up too.

City and Ciaz war continues and the former C is ahead in terms of Sales.
Both distributors (read manufacturers) will be happy with their product outcome.

3) Superhits of the Year
Ek Villain, Baby, Dhoom= Boleros, Eon, Celerio

All did decent 6k+ business and though Celerio has been struggling for a while, it has come of age now.

4) Absolute Flops
Equivalent to the biggest Bollywood Disaster movies

Besharam, Once upon a Time in Mumbai 2, Boss, Blue

Fiat Linea/Punto, Evalia, Aria, Pulse, Teti, Sail Twins,Spark

Distributors(read manufacturers) are bleeding big time and the stars(read the Car Models) have completely lost their credibility.

Some of these stars have seen better days in their life time(Eg. Spark) and have fallen on tough times now.

Most of they have given their distributors a very tough time and do not command any premium against better accomplished stars now.
They will eventually fade away!!

5) Anticipated Releases that Failed
Roy, Heroine, Jai Ho

Verna has seen better graphs. The facelift was not too exciting and has no effect on the reigning two Cs.

Ford Fiesta Facelift was anticipated with the Aston Martin Grille et all. Ford lost interest and so did the customers.

Bolt is easily one of Tata's best hatches but simultaneously one of the worst priced ones. Zest sales gets a spike, Bolt gets a THUNDERBOLT

Etios was another anticipated launch but Toyota botched up the interiors so royally that it is sad to see it languish where it is today. Another blockbuster that could have been, hits the dust!!

6) Surprise Hits
Pls. dont laugh at this- MSG ;-)

Xcent- Anemic engine yet it sells. Surprises me but then Hyundai has packaged the product very well.

Bolero- Rural and Tier2/3 city loves this basic MUV/SUV mis match. It is utilitarian yet it is a workhorse. None of M&M products have dne this well over such a long time

Amaze: Nothing goes for this car except the Honda badge. The interiors are plain boring, the car is not a hoot to drive, it is strictly ok to look yet it is doing good for itself.

Last edited by arnabchak : 5th March 2015 at 10:17.
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Old 5th March 2015, 11:55   #37
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Default Re: February 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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Originally Posted by Aditya View Post




Well,well,well. It seems the hike in excise duty hasn't hurt the industry that much. Looking at the numbers, the top sellers are going strong like before. I have one question here. i10,Ritz,Figo,Brio are included in the B2 segment chart. Don't they belong to B1 segment? Also doesn't the Datsun Go belong to A segment with the likes of Alto?

Some observations:

> The top seller for Chevy is Tavera which is basically a taxi segment vehicle. All their other models are struggling. Even the Beat is beaten fair and square by the likes of Alto,i10,WagonR etc.

> Datsun is a failed project. It proves that the Indian market has matured to some extent and it no longer accepts something of poor quality just because it's cheap.

> Good to see that Fiat has stayed in business for another month, albeit marginally. Linea numbers are even lower than that of Octavia/Jetta/Pajero etc.

> EcoSport is going strong but that should not bring any complacency in Ford's mentality. All their other models are under performing so badly, even though these cars are so much capable. Only 349 units of Fiesta, that too including the classic. Ford killed the car. Figo is showing its age.

> Honda going strong with Amaze and City as usual. The brand value still pulls them at times and both these cars are very much Indianized and so selling well. Honda deserve credit for that. Where they can't take pride though is the Mobilio and CR-V. Mobilio is too cheap quality wise for the segment and a little overpriced IMO. They failed to introduce diesel CR-V in time and the market is still waiting for that along with the Jazz. Hope the pricing debacle won't happen this time. Jazz could be another volume player for them.

> Hyundai is happy to sale i20, Grand i10 in good numbers. They are keeping up with Maruti very well. The new Verna hasn't created a sensation in the market. But that wasn't expected either. Was it? I think Eon has failed to fill the void left by the good old Santro.

> Scorpio numbers are going down but it's still selling strong no doubt. I feel that the Xuv has lost its sheen a little bit and the numbers show that. The niggles associated with the car can be a reason.

> Maruti. Well what can I say. Whatever they throw at us just sells, infact outsells others. They must be happy with their numbers but being the no.1 manufacturer in the market, they have some responsibilities to perform which they are not doing. Offering ABS and Airbags in all their models for example.

> Nissan numbers are disappointing. Micra and sunny are not doing well. I wonder why the Terrano is not at par with Duster. Terrano units are one third of that of Duster.

> People use to say that Ford is happy to sell just one model at a time. Renault is actually the same with Duster. All their other cars are market duds.

> Another company who should be happy to stay in the business is Skoda. Whatever numbers they have got is a bonus. So not much to say here.

> Tata must be disappointed with the Zest numbers. It hasn't set the saleschart on fire. Bolt+Zest stand around 4000 units. If this is the initial numbers just after launch, I wonder what will happen after two years from now. Indigo+Vista doing relatively better. Indigo taxis are included in that number. Anyone?

> Toyota is not very serious about India but when you manage to sell that many cars even casually then "Why So Serious?". 48 LC Prado is surprising. Are they despatching stocks for the rest of the year?

> VW should be worried about the Polo and specially Vento numbers. I think with increased competition Vento is feeling the heat. A refresh is around the corner but I doubt it will create much impact in the market considering it will be mostly a mild cosmetic makeover.
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Old 5th March 2015, 12:05   #38
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Default Re: February 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

The Alto figure shows 25k+. Is this the Alto 800 or the Alto K10, or is it combined?

If these figures are combined, then it draws confusion as Alto 800 is from Segment A and Alto K10 is of Segment B1.
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Old 5th March 2015, 12:14   #39
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Default Re: February 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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Originally Posted by deetjohn View Post
The Polo being much smaller than the Swift is a misconception.
I was saying the opposite -- the Swift is smaller than Polo/Punto/i20. The latter three are comparable and the i20 is eating the others' lunch right now. Come to think of it, Figo and Liva sales (which are more comparable to Swift) have fallen sharply too. It will take a while for Hyundai to start hurting Maruti, though.

Eventually though, what they all care about is profits. As others pointed out, Toyota is making major losses despite good sales. Fiat may be in slightly better shape because of the engine business. Not sure about VW, Ford etc.
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Old 5th March 2015, 12:29   #40
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Default Re: February 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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Originally Posted by rsidd View Post
I was saying the opposite -- the Swift is smaller than Polo/Punto/i20.
Oops! Epic typo in my post there.

What I meant to write was this -
Quote:
The Swift being much smaller than the Polo is a misconception.
The rest of the post gives the reasoning behind my thought. Sorry about that!
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Old 5th March 2015, 13:40   #41
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Default Re: February 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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Originally Posted by stanjohn123 View Post
I don't get it , how is i20 managing to sell more than i10 and i10 grand in the B2 segment ?

Even I fail to understand.. but then the car looks good, has so many features from segment above and not to forget an excellent dealership experience. Make a car that makes you go wow, load it with features and ensure you build a brand (great service / good resale) that your neighbors will approve (or envy) and even though you charge a premium people will still make a beaten path to your doors wherever it is.

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Old 5th March 2015, 14:01   #42
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Default Re: February 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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Originally Posted by Nimz View Post
Even I fail to understand.. but then the car looks good, has so many features from segment above and not to forget an excellent dealership experience. Make a car that makes you go wow, load it with features and ensure you build a brand (great service / good resale) that your neighbors will approve (or envy) and even though you charge a premium people will still make a beaten path to your doors wherever it is.

Nimz
Hey Nimz. I dont think it is so difficult to understand. The market for premium hatchbacks has really opened up. The buying power of people has also gone up significantly over the years. Even first car buyers are not hesitating to put in 8-9 lakhs for a new car. I have seen a lot of petrol i20 Astas on road and that goes on to prove that people want more features and more space and engine power is secondary (especially when considering Grand i10 has the exact same engine). Even if it is simply for city driving and low mileage people want features, premiumness and quality inside out. No wonder i20 is selling so well.
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Old 5th March 2015, 14:30   #43
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Default Re: February 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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Originally Posted by Vigkey View Post
Even first car buyers are not hesitating to put in 8-9 lakhs for a new car. I have seen a lot of petrol i20 Astas on road and that goes on to prove that people want more features and more space and engine power is secondary (especially when considering Grand i10 has the exact same engine). Even if it is simply for city driving and low mileage people want features, premiumness and quality inside out. No wonder i20 is selling so well.
Agree Vigkey, that first time buyers put in 8-9 Lakhs for a new car but what beats me is, one can get a sedan like the Amaze for a lesser price and for a lakh or so more one can get the City mid variant. The i20 Elite is in sedan territory in terms of pricing and yet sells in such huge numbers. Maybe am missing something!
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Old 5th March 2015, 14:56   #44
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Default Re: February 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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Originally Posted by Nimz View Post
...first time buyers put in 8-9 Lakhs for a new car but what beats me is, one can get a sedan like the Amaze for a lesser price and for a lakh or so more one can get the City mid variant. The i20 Elite is in sedan territory in terms of pricing and yet sells in such huge numbers. Maybe am missing something!
Other than some first time buyers, it is used by many people as a second car for city use, I guess. Those people will have bigger sedans for their bigger highway drives, but using i20 as a city car for easy city driving and parking. That is where the sub-4m cars like Ecosport and DZire win the hearts, IMO.
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Old 5th March 2015, 14:57   #45
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Default Re: February 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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Originally Posted by Nimz View Post
Agree Vigkey, that first time buyers put in 8-9 Lakhs for a new car but what beats me is, one can get a sedan like the Amaze for a lesser price and for a lakh or so more one can get the City mid variant. The i20 Elite is in sedan territory in terms of pricing and yet sells in such huge numbers. Maybe am missing something!

One look at the exteriors and Interiors of Amaze vs Elite i20 and no one would plonk their money in the Amaze. There is not anything to research here.

i20 is more car per money and more features per money backed by reliable A.S.S. Simple success story of the car.
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