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Old 12th October 2015, 22:42   #31
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Default Re: September 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

VM: I think we will have wait for October number get a clear picture.
Hyundai: Creta's consistent high number is a surprise. I know its still early. But wasn't expecting it to hold on to 7k even after first 2 months. Because this is priced between c2 segment sedan and d1 segment sedan. Certainly expensive for the price conscious Indian market.
D1 and D2 segment cars: As always, no volume at all. Looks like a very tough segment for car makers. We have already had Civic,Accord,Sonata and Passat discontinued.
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Old 12th October 2015, 22:44   #32
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The new Ford effect on the Fortuner? I simply can't understand the relationship between the Jetta and Octi. Seems like they have decided to play hide and seek with each other. What an Auto Tranny could have done to the S-Cross! So many City being sold, don't match as much as on the road, where is it selling? TUV deliveries have begun, I have not seen one (only TD vehicles) on the road so far.
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Old 12th October 2015, 23:01   #33
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Default Re: September 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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Originally Posted by man_and_machine View Post
The new Ford effect on the Fortuner? I simply can't understand the relationship between the Jetta and Octi. Seems like they have decided to play hide and seek with each other. What an Auto Tranny could have done to the S-Cross! So many City being sold, don't match as much as on the road, where is it selling? TUV deliveries have begun, I have not seen one (only TD vehicles) on the road so far.
And I have not seen a single S-Cross on road. Wonder where MUL sold 3K S-Crosses. While Creta is doing 7K plus, S-Cross is not even dong half of that. So much for all the hype and a new showroom for this over-priced crossover or whatever. I'm sure when novelty wears off, Creta sales will come down too. And Ecosport may see some spurt in numbers, owing to huge price difference between this and Creta.
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Old 12th October 2015, 23:01   #34
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Default Re: September 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Duster is just floating above 1000 is really surprising and so is Verna who is going down and down.
Baleno, Abarth and Kwid's figures will be eagerly awaited next month by all.
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Old 12th October 2015, 23:05   #35
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Default Re: September 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Looks like the sales nos. will get very interesting this last quarter. Maruti might see the dip due to Kwid entry, but at the same time they might see a gain in other segments with the intro of Baleno and Ertiga facelift. I'm pretty sure, the downturn in sales of Ertiga are partly due to people holding off in anticipation of the facelift Ertiga to be launched soon and also due to intro of TUV which is in the similar price bracket and add to that the ever growing enthusiasm in India for SUVs.
Renault is imminent to have a better last quarter and hope they live upto to it with a much needed improvement in their after sale support.
Hyundai, Ford and Mahindra will probably have steady sales in this last quarter.

In essence this is the time for new launches and those manufacturers with new products on the block are doing great while the ones still stuck to their old machines are scrapping the bottom. Hope the catch up game from other OEMs is round the corner!
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Old 12th October 2015, 23:17   #36
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A snapshot of segment wise sales trend since Sep'12

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Facts

1. A and B1 segments have seen a steady decline over the last 3 years, A from 16% to 12 % and B1 from 16% to 11%, declining steadily.

2. B2 segment has been witnessing a steady increase, though minimal.

3. Its the C1 and C2 segments where things have really changed, rapid growth compared to B2 segment, from 11% and 7% respectively to 17%, a volume rise from 23.9k units to 40.6 k units for C1 ad 15.1k units to 38.5k units for C2. The increase in volumes has been progressive. C2 segment has shown much consistent growth.

4. D1 and D2 have steadily declined and the SUVs are the ones holding this segment, for the D segment sedans are heading to be an extinct breed.
http://www.team-bhp.com/forum/indian...a-et-al-4.html (The Diminishing Value of D1 Segment Sedans (Altis, Cruze, Civic, Laura et al))

5. Utility segment has declined from 23% in 2012 to 13% in 2015, volume de-growth from 49.3k to 29.8k. People prefer 6/7/8 seater SUVs to MPVs nowadays. Also the cab aggregators and self drive rental concept would have had its share, however minimal, in the downfall of MPVs. I would rent a 7/8 seater for the few occasions in a year rather than buying and owning an MPV, SUVs though give a different appeal and status symbol

The growth prospect of the Indian automobile industry lies in the B2, C1 and C2 segments, i.e the 7 lacs to sub 20 lacs category. (This is the reason Toyota has not been able to get beyond 5th/6th position in market share since Toyota does not have a competent B2, C1, C2 product in its Indian portfolio)
If we scan the launches/facelifts from major auto companies, it is predominantly in this segment since 2012.

Maruti - Swift Dzire, Ciaz, S Cross, upcoming Baleno, YBA (Vitara Brezza)
Hyundai - Grandi10, Elitei20, refreshed Verna, Creta, upcoming compact SUV
Mahindra - Verito Vibe, facelifetd Scorpio, TUV300, upcoming S101 (Canto)
Honda - Amaze, next gen City, Jazz, upcoming BRV
Tata - Safari Storme, Zest, Bolt, upcoming Kite
Toyota - Etios/Liva facelift, Etios cross
Ford - Ecosport, Aspire, new Figo

All in all, the 7 to 20 lac segment is poised for growth.

NOTE:
Data source: TeamBHP
% share in the table is on the overall sales figure for the particular month/year

Last edited by Karthik Chandra : 12th October 2015 at 23:45.
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Old 13th October 2015, 01:10   #37
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Default Re: September 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Maruti-Hyundai combination is unaffected by competition. Unlikely that anything can faze them in near future (Kwid included).

Few observations -

1. Fiat has 148 dealers overall (Source - Carwale) who together have been selling close to 600 cars among them since last couple of months. That makes less than 4 cars each dealer per month on average. Unclear how they survive. In fact, number of Linea sold has been fewer than number of dealers, so a few dealership have not sold a single Linea during the month (or have not bought a single one from Fiat).
2. Dispatches of Evalia jumped up suddenly. Wondering who is buying, probably some transport operator.
3. Why to exclude Reva and Thar from Mahindra's portfolio. Must be a good reason, but not getting it.

Last edited by rsm97 : 13th October 2015 at 01:11.
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Old 13th October 2015, 05:35   #38
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Default Re: September 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

I really wish to see the new Ford twins i.e. Aspire and Figo to do well in the coming months in our market. If production is not a constraint for Ford, surely these two put together can do a 10,000 plus sale number on a monthly basis. But for that, Ford's marketing team has to wake up and make both these cars more noticeable in the market. Even today many of my known really don't know about these offerings from Ford. Where is all the buzz that they created in 2010 when they launched the first gen Figo which made it all so very successful.

Duster and Terrano have taken the hit from Creta and S-cross quite badly. The numbers have dwindled down really quickly and significantly. Although a refreshed Duster is on the cards and this could be the reason for the low numbers but it looks like an absolute dead end for Terrano from here on for the next coming months. Massive discounts can be in the pipeline for the festive season and year end.

City, Jazz and Amaze numbers are surely great for Honda, although Mobilio will surely will be a cause of a little concern. Will it be removed from the market when the BR-V arrives next year?

Eagerly waiting to see how the Renault Kwid stacks up against the champion Alto. Have the deliveries for Kwid started? I'm yet to see a single car on road as of now.
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Old 13th October 2015, 09:26   #39
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Default Re: September 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

I am eagerly waiting for the KWID sales numbers in next month sales analysis. Honestly, tired of seeing Alto at the top all these months and would love to see a worthy contender from some other manufacturer giving tough time to Alto.

KWID has got all the bling factor to do so and in case if it fails..Sigh.. bow to the might Alto.
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Old 13th October 2015, 11:12   #40
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Default Re: September 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Dear Aditya
Thanks for the much awaited thread.

Some observations:

1) Ciaz and City difference is lower as compared to earlier.
If we see the trend, the Ciaz vs City had about a 2.5k Difference.

That is almost double compared to the 1.2 K difference now.
The primary reason may be that the Ciaz is a well stiched up product and the Indian junta have warmed up to the fact that Maruti is capable of launching a million rupee car.

2) Creta is a rockstar

On the highway from Vapi yesterday, I saw a convoy of SUVs in front of me.
XUV, Fortuner, EcoSport and the Creta.

There was no denial that the Creta did not look a bit out of sync with even its mightier compatriots the T-Fort or the XUV.

It has a brilliant road presence, is full of goodies and has certainly better interiors than even the Fortuner.
The 7.5K sales is testimony of that.
There is no doubt that the buyers are looking beyond the high price and appreciating the car for its inherent benefits.

3) S Cross-A disaster in the making?

Now compare the S Cross with the Creta. This is a disaster in the making. Within a month of its launch, Rs. 1 lac discounts have already started.
The 3.6K sales belies what is ahead.

With the Baleno launch, my strong feeling is that it will cannibalize the S Cross sales the most. A 1.5K would be an optimistic no. of the S Cross in 6 months hence.

4) Aspire and Figo

Though the Aspire and new Figo are off to a reasonable start, I am sure the Ford bosses are not too happy with the Aspire sales in particular.

When other sub 4 mts sedans are gaining 5K + nos. month on month, 3.5K sales for a newly launched product is not too encouraging.
Going forward, Aspire may settle at about 3K per month.

5) What lies ahead for the Baleno

The Baleno, if priced well can cause a flutter in the lineup.

It will directly impact the sub 4 metre sedans in the below order:

Amaze> Xcent> Aspire>Zest(nos. may not be significant)> Dzire

It will also affect the premium hatches
S Cross>Swift> Polo> i20

(Pls. note that the above is just my thoughts and need not be sacrosanct with other thought processes)

6) TUV and Bolero

The old + New= Old of yore

TUV and Bolero Sales now is almost equal to what Bolero used to do earlier.

The TUV start is decent. It is time to rest the duds from the M&M lineup- Verito, Vibe and the Quanto.

Play with the XUV, Bolero, TUV and the Scorpio.

7) Renault and the "new Kwid on the Block"

The new Kwid will help give Renault the elusive hit and mass market access that even the Duster has not been able to achieve.

The first month bookings of 25,000 for this car is a sure shot sign that buyers are willing to experiment with the French brand.

Renault has to capitalise this and strengthen the dealership and After sales network.
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Old 13th October 2015, 11:26   #41
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Default Re: September 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Innova sales remain flat over the period. It re-confirms the fact that 7-Seater MUV segment is invariant to SUVs and is also more or less invariant to the ~4m pseudo 7-seater MUV segement (Ertiga/Lodgy etc). Both these segments hold on to their market footprint and can easily co-exist.
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Old 13th October 2015, 12:11   #42
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Originally Posted by adithya.kp View Post
Hyundai: Creta's consistent high number is a surprise. I know its still early. But wasn't expecting it to hold on to 7k even after first 2 months. Because this is priced between c2 segment sedan and d1 segment sedan. Certainly expensive for the price conscious Indian market.
That is the beauty here. Hyundai delivered a car, that is premium and still looked VFM.
Take Santa Fe as example - Diesel AT car costs more than 28L ex-showroom. But Creta Diesel AT car costs "just" 13.6L, less than half of Santa Fe.
Differences? Creta is 400mm shorter, 100mm narrower, but has same height, similar GC. While Santa Fe puts extra row of seats, Creta skips that, and provide a very spacious two row cabin. Santa Fe gets a quick 2.2L Turbocharged engine, while Creta gets 1.6L. Feature wise, Creta gets a lot of features, many of them segment firsts. In other words, to pamper the urban customers, Hyundai has given Creta, as a reduced version of Santa Fe, at half price.
This is the reason Creta sells like hot cakes.
If alone Toyota tried to do the same with their Fortuner! (Fortuner Diesel AT sells for 25L, and if they can sell a Fortuner alike 5 seater Diesel AT at 12L ex-showroom, and lower petrol variants at about 10L OTR, definitely they don't need to sit on the fences and watch the Indian Market)
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Old 13th October 2015, 12:25   #43
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This is the reason Creta sells like hot cakes.
If alone Toyota tried to do the same with their Fortuner! (Fortuner Diesel AT sells for 25L, and if they can sell a Fortuner alike 5 seater Diesel AT at 12L ex-showroom, and lower petrol variants at about 10L OTR, definitely they don't need to sit on the fences and watch the Indian Market)
Precisely the reason Toyota is not able to climb above 5th position in the market share chart. They do not have competent products in B2, C1 & C2 segments. This fortuner alike 5 seater you have mentioned will serve up as the right product and fill up the vaccum in C2 segment for Toyota.
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Old 13th October 2015, 12:31   #44
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And I have not seen a single S-Cross on road. Wonder where MUL sold 3K S-Crosses.
It is quite easy to miss S-Cross in the crowd. Creta stands-out and more visible. It takes a keen eye to spot the S-Cross for sure.

I hope the S-Cross numbers will increase in October, with all the discounts on the offer.
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Old 13th October 2015, 12:36   #45
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Originally Posted by Karthik Chandra View Post
Precisely the reason Toyota is not able to climb above 5th position in the market share chart. They do not have competent products in B2, C1 & C2 segments. This fortuner alike 5 seater you have mentioned will serve up as the right product and fill up the vaccum in C2 segment for Toyota.
Right! Looks like they considered all segments up to C2 not their cup of tea.
Link to the related thread (Shocking! Toyota India admits defeat in the small car segment)
Toyota just behaves like an American return Indian, finding small cars difficult to drive. Japan is the home for small cars, and it is hard to find they are unable to launch any small cars!
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