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Old 9th December 2015, 15:46   #31
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Default Re: November 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Since there are discussions on segment wise cannibalization, I've prepared the following. Below is the 6 months sales figures segment wise prior to Nov'15

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* % CONT = % CONTRIBUTION, May'15 total volume is 213698, hidden under water mark

If we take avg of these 6 Months, i'e May'15 to Oct'15 and compare the avg with Nov15 sales figures, we get to know which segment has grown/de grown/remained flat over the last 6 months avg

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*Nov'15 total volume is 233544, hidden under water mark

'A' segment has shown significant growth, thanks to the Kwid and Eon (owing to festive discounts and aggressive marketing by HMIL)

'B1' and 'C2' segments have shown growth, interestingly C2 has shown more growth compared to B2, all the more reason for Honda to worry, since Jazz has done 3367 units in Nov'15 against 5 month (Jun'15 to Oct'15) avg of 4734, a de growth of about 32%, Hyundai losing out big time, where is the all new Verna? 2017? guess it'll be too late when it launches, on the contrary, when the all new Verna gets launched, the Ciaz and City would be 3 years old.

'C1' and 'B1' segments have registered de-growth indicating that customers have moved on to premium hatchbacks and proper sedans from smaller hatches and pseudo sedans.

This makes it all the more challenging for TATA Motors since they are launching the Zica and Sway, on the contrary it might also give them a positive response since Zica is the new kid in the B1 segment which has not seen any new launches recently, the only launch was the diesel celerio (pls correct me if I'm wrong) VW can wrap up the CS plans

'D' segments were anyway dwindling down with the SUVs being the saving grace

Interesting to note that the utilities segment has remained flat since this category provides VFM offerings, perfect bang for the buck products (read as Ertiga, Eeco, Omni, Bolero, Innova). Also note high priced products like Mobilio, products from companies offering less than satisfactory A.S.S like Enjoy, Lodgy, Evalia, and dated products like Sumo, Tavera and Xylo do not attract customers. Even though some might be VFM, there is no aspirational values to own them

Overall I see the industry growing since the buyers are becoming more aware, knowledgeable and mature leading to sensible, need and affordability based purchases

Last edited by Karthik Chandra : 9th December 2015 at 15:56.
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Old 9th December 2015, 16:22   #32
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Default Re: November 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Have the Abath Punto numbers been clubbed with Evo?
Or they have not yet started shipping the Abarth Punto?
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Old 9th December 2015, 16:25   #33
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Default Re: November 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by Karthik Chandra View Post

This makes it all the more challenging for TATA Motors since they are launching the Zica and Sway, on the contrary it might also give them a positive response since Zica is the new kid in the B1 segment which has not seen any new launches recently, the only launch was the diesel celerio (pls correct me if I'm wrong) VW can wrap up the CS plans
For sure, it is an uphill task for TATA Motors to re-establish their brand in the pass car segment. Adding to their woes, prospective customers are becoming increasingly knowledgeable and have lots of options to weigh in before zeroing on one. It is not just about marketing, they need to improve their customer experience, service experience and overall, they must need to bring in a visible change in their front-line customer interface which should enthuse a feel good factor in prospective buyers. Without a strong commitment, this won't be possible. IMHO, it's wait and watch on TATA Motors.

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Overall I see the industry growing since the buyers are becoming more aware, knowledgeable and mature leading to sensible, need and affordability based purchases
Rightly said! Only few, who are able to afford with money & time, chose brands such as Fiat even with the knowledge of service issues, resale etc. Since majority of the new car purchases are financed, majority of the customers will go for trusted brands only unless there's really a drastic offering such as "Kwid" which still needs time to be truly successful but definitely positioned Renault in a right track for growth.
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Old 9th December 2015, 16:27   #34
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Default Re: November 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Amazing compilation as always!

One observation from my side. The overall market has grown from 2,08,124 to 2,33,544 units - a growth of 25,420 units (from Nov '14 to Nov '15).

Interestingly, the bulk of the growth has been shared by top 3 OEMs (Maruti + Hyundai + Mahindra = 10580 + 8942 + 5107) with 24,629 units.

Which means all other OEMs put together have contributed just 791 units. This is despite prominent launches by Ford, Renault.

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Old 9th December 2015, 16:52   #35
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Default Re: November 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

I think when Indian consumer is out for Compact Sedan or say any car.. they first head to MS or Hyundai showroom.

When we compare compact sedans from these two brands Figo Aspire doesn't have anything more to offer (other than most important but equally most neglected factor - safety). Also inside out dimensions of Figo and Aspire are small.
I don't see 5 people sitting comfortably in Figo twins and that could be a bummer for many.

Zest has everything in plenty but it will take a lot of time for Tata badge to earn more respect and value in gen customer's mind. Till then I don't expect any more sales coming to their bin.

Week diesel engine in Xcent and overpriced Amaze sums leaves Dzire (frog) as the only winner here.
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Old 9th December 2015, 18:11   #36
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Default Re: November 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Think there's a problem with the Baleno numbers. A lot of media reports say Baleno overtook i20 in sales last month.
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Old 9th December 2015, 18:26   #37
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Default Re: November 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

A ha .. that thread again

My observations

1) Ford is being hurt badly for the weak petrol engines - competition has moved on and they cannot rest of the diesel alone.

2) Innova - looks like the market is just waiting for this one to arrive and we should see 4k+ numbers easily!

3) Honda sales are mostly on the negative side barring the city - no idea what is causing this trend
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Old 9th December 2015, 18:31   #38
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Default Re: November 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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Originally Posted by nazimk24 View Post
Think there's a problem with the Baleno numbers. A lot of media reports say Baleno overtook i20 in sales last month.
That's when not taking i20 Active numbers into consideration which sold around 1200 units (cant remember the number clearly). This report combines both Elite i20 & i20 Active numbers and hence the combined number is more than Baleno numbers for November.
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Old 9th December 2015, 18:38   #39
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Default Re: November 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

I think Baleno has hit Honda and VW with a drop in sales of Jazz and Polo, even the Zest. The TUV300 also has an impact on other cars falling in the same price bracket, but it seems more like an initial euphoria.

Looks like very recent new car launches (Kwid, TUV300, Baleno) have worked for some manufacturers, Creta and S Cross have reduced even when they are relatively new.

I wonder why the Lodgy is not selling, the car offers a lot for money paid per square feet.

Next month we might see less shipments of Hyundai, Renault and Ford cars due to Chennai floods.
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Old 9th December 2015, 18:49   #40
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Default Re: November 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by nazimk24 View Post
Think there's a problem with the Baleno numbers. A lot of media reports say Baleno overtook i20 in sales last month.
Here is the exact break-up,

The Elite + Active = 10074, are the volumes seen. Elite alone is 8264 ( Source-ET)
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Old 9th December 2015, 18:57   #41
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Default Re: November 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

The drop in sales for the Ford Figo twins may be due to the Chennai rains which have forced some manufacturers to suspend production and also impacted dispatches, though I am not sure to what extent this can be attributed. I think we'll get a clearer picture in the coming months.

Hyundai was also impacted by the rains and yet the sales of i20 have not dropped much. So I get the feeling that it can withstand the Baleno assault.
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Old 9th December 2015, 19:03   #42
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Default Re: November 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Some trend I don't understand:

i. I20 is said to have a very long backlog. Why drop in sales? Chennai flood?
ii. Is Maruti really preferring Baleno over Swift and SCross to clear the backlog, so that all 3 will have a balanced waiting list?
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Old 9th December 2015, 19:12   #43
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Default Re: November 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

A few things:
a) The loss of Swift and Dzire seems to be the gain of Baleno. So, Baleno ate into the sales of these two cars. i20 seems pretty much unaffected by Baleno, while Grand i10 pushing forward to become the new face of "regular" B2 hatchbacks! Baleno numbers will improve further, with increase in Nexa showrooms, actually.
b) We thought Indians would not worry about emission scandal, and believed that VW sales would remain unaffected. But, this month figures show we were wrong. VW falls to new lows.
c) What happened all the Fiat lovers, who claimed they would be ready to sell their houses to buy Abarth Punto when it launches? Now it is launched, and it is super fast comparing to all hatchbacks in our country, but sales show absolutely no improvement. Yes, Fiat does not worry about sales, but buyers also not interested?

An interesting month, all in all, with key changes in the top ten!
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Old 9th December 2015, 20:18   #44
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Default Re: November 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by JonSnow View Post
The drop in sales for the Ford Figo twins may be due to the Chennai rains which have forced some manufacturers to suspend production and also impacted dispatches, though I am not sure to what extent this can be attributed. I think we'll get a clearer picture in the coming months.

Hyundai was also impacted by the rains and yet the sales of i20 have not dropped much. So I get the feeling that it can withstand the Baleno assault.
Nope the new Figo and Aspire are manufactured in Sanand plant, Gujarat, hence Chennai floods have nothing to do with low volumes
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Old 9th December 2015, 22:26   #45
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Baleno rises to its expectations! Read some news that the car gets 1K bookings everyday. Really!?? That's amazing if the news happens to be true!

TUV300 is surely picking up and I can see many of them on road in Bangalore!
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