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Old 10th January 2016, 15:02   #61
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Default Re: December 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Great to see the Rapid numbers go up this month.

Could it be a VAG strategy to offer more promotions and discounts on Škoda products while it's marred in a PR debacle for the time being?
I guess customers know better, but few are more mindful when the sister company names are not included in the scandal, like Audi or Škoda. Just my thought process.

I've myself booked a Rapid and waiting for delivery this month.

Sad to see the Ford twins come up with average numbers. If they're a flop, Harvard or Stanford should conduct a case study to better understand the mind of an average Indian car buyer.
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Old 10th January 2016, 16:14   #62
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Default Re: December 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Originally Posted by RSR View Post

I'm terribly, utterly disappointed with the market's response to the new Ford Figo & Aspire.

Here we have a manufacturer offering 6 airbags + ABS (or 2 airbags + ABS + ESP + TC, depending on the variant) in two cars when even those from sub-segments above don't have them. Not to mention the stonking & blisteringly quick 100 PS 1.5 diesel motor. Or a 6-speed dual clutch transmission coupled with a 112 PS 1.5 petrol engine, when no other car has anything more than a 1.2 litre petrol engine in these sub-segments. All in cars that tip the scale at a substantial 1000 kg plus for most variants.

And the market response? It has been rather ordinary. It's this kind of stupid market response to such cars with brilliant safety features that makes manufacturers conclude the Indian market doesn't value safety. Just pathetic!

By the way, the new Figo twins were not affected by the Chennai floods, as they're being rolled out of the new Sanand plant. It's the EcoSport whose dispatches would have been affected by the floods.

The Figo twins certainly deserve to succeed in a big way! Only then will the Indian market get better safety features in the sub-1 million rupee price range.
I personally think that (in Team Bhp terminology) there are several 'Small but significant factors' that are resulting in the poor sales.
  • The build and handling are not 'Typical Ford'. They should not have stepped away from the USP's that they are known for here. This has caused Ford regulars also to be disappointed and look elsewhere. I had a look at the Baleno recently and it definitely 'feels' more solid that the Figo. My father in law had a prev gen Figo as a company car, this was recently replaced with the new Figo and he is not at all happy. Not like the Ford he knows is his opinion. I see this as a trend.
  • As already discussed, marketing and dealer experience. Personal Experiences: I went with my friend to book a Figo DCT and the dealer refused to book when we said we may want to take insurance outside. My friend is a Ford guy so booked with another dealer. But again the followups have been poor and he his thinking to switch to the GT TSI. Also, was looking for an AT for my sister in law. They refused to consider the Figo DCT purely because of the very bad experience they had at the dealer when they visited a couple of times earlier.
  • The ordinary petrol engine. Apart from the 6 airbag variant, there is no real reason to buy the manual Figo petrol. We are not mature enough to prioritize 6 airbags over other requirements or overlook some deficiencies just for the airbags.
  • The fast diesel is a major USP, but again for a regular buyer, the differenciation with the Jazz/i20/Baleno will not be huge.
  • The Baleno effect: I think this is the single biggest reason. The Baleno is one of Maruti's better products. And Maruti went one up on Ford by making both Airbags and ABS standard on all variants. The Baleno feels better built than the Figo, is priced well and the light weight makes the petrol a peppy one. I personally was not able to justify the Figo over the Baleno to 2 friends who asked my opinion.

In summary, Ford has a good product with a few USP's. But the competition is fierce and they really need to be on the button to ensure that the few USP's are constantly in a buyers mind. Any small slip and the customer will go to a competitor. I guess that is what is happening now. My personal experiences also indicate this trend.

The good part on safety is that most manufacturers have picked up the trend started by Ford. The biggest culprit with respect to safety-Maruti, now offers ABS and Airbags pretty much across all main products in the sub 10 L range. If not by default, at least as an option. Hyundai has started to follow suit with the i20 and Verna. Mahindra is doing it with the TUV300 and KUV100. VW and Toyota have always been offering it. Overall I think we made good progress with respect to the safety aspects. Hoping in 2016, 6 airbags will start to become common.

Coming to the sales numbers:
  • Kwid goes past EON. I guess this is the first time Eon has been displaced from that 2nd position. Hope Renault can sustain this. But no real impact to the Alto.
  • Celerio continuing to pick up. Since the majority of the Celerio sales are AMT, would be interesting to see the impact of the Wagon R AMT on Celerio over the next few months.
  • Wagon R, Swift and Grand i10 motoring along. Would be interesting to see if the Zica and the KUV100 can pull some numbers from any of these. Tough segment to enter into.
  • Baleno rocking the premium hatch segment. Elite i20 not really impacted. Looks like Baleno is pulling numbers from the Figo and Jazz. Would be interesting to see the trend here.
  • Compact Sedans continues its flip flop run. Numbers look low this month from the Amaze/Xcent and even Dzire. Aspire struggling, so is the Zest. Looking forward to see what VW can do with the Ameo. Looking at the segment, looks like a suicidal move. But need to wait and see.
  • Surprising drop for the Ciaz. Wonder what caused that?. Verna drops further to 5th place even behind the Rapid and Vento (May be due to Chennai floods or the upcoming refresh?). Rapid is above the Vento and at ~1400 units, pretty healthy numbers for a very good product backed by poor manufacturer/dealer network. Guess if someone else was selling the Rapid, it would have been a threat to the biggies.
  • Good number for the Creta inspite of the flood impact. TUV300 continues its solid run, S Cross numbers continue to be poor by Maruti Standards. Duster hanging on, the 2016 refresh with AMT should definitely help.
  • Good to see the Lodgy picking up a bit. Offers are helping. Seeing several on the roads now. I think it deserves better.
  • Generally quiet D Segment. Seems to be a stagnant segment.
  • Zero Trailblazer dispatches? Pretty bad for a new product.

Overall in 2015,among the large number of launches, we saw the Baleno, Kwid, Creta and TUV300 getting into the Top 20 and sustaining/improving the launch numbers. Special kudos to Renault for managing that with the Kwid.

2016 promises to be another interesting battle with the large number of launches lined up. Will need to wait and see by the end of 2016 which ones are able to capture the buyer attention and which ones will become 'me too or niche products.

Last edited by Rajeevraj : 10th January 2016 at 16:19.
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Old 10th January 2016, 16:28   #63
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Default Re: December 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

With the limited dealership presence, Baleno sales have been very good. I am sure Maruti sales people are pushing people to Baleno from Swift as it helps the company move people to newer models.
Many people postpone car buying in the last month because of the "model year" effect and thus the deliveries would be subdued.
For Toyota and luxury car makers, the real impact of stay on sales in Delhi NCR will be known when the January numbers are out.
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Old 10th January 2016, 16:37   #64
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Amazed to find that the Renault Kwid sells 6000+ units a month. I have seen only one Remault Kwid so far in Bombay. The Baleno, au contraire, is very visible, and looks much better on the road (where you more often see its side or rear profile, and miss the ugly jawline) than in pictures. Is there some way of checking if it has been value-engineered to kill by Maruti (a la the Swift) or whether since its exported to Europe, they are selling the same car here? My brother has been considering one, and I have been reluctant to support that since I feel Marutis are designed to be unsafe.

The luxury car sales data is instructive. Am not surprised that the 3 is doing so badly - when I tested it, I found the 320 D horrendously under equipped, and extremely noisy - the A4 and the new C clearly outclass it. (The 328i was a different story, but they didn't choose to sell it). Was very surprised that Mercedes's sales success is driven a lot more by the C Class and E Class rather than the A or CLA.
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Old 11th January 2016, 07:08   #65
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Default Re: December 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Originally Posted by amit View Post
The Audi A4 is older then the BMW 3 yet it sells more so our belief that a newer car sells more needs a re-think.
Not really. A4 is offering mouth-watering discounts
On road savings are more if you club in the insurance.
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Old 11th January 2016, 07:47   #66
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Lodgy seems to be getting the benefit of the excellent financing schemes (6%,7year loan, 85% of on road price).

Renault seems to have stolen the frugal engineering idea from Maruti for the Kwid and the financing idea from Toyota.

European companies are in a position to offer excellent finance schemes as they have access to cheap capital at home. The interest rates are negative in a few countries.

I think this will become a differentiating factor soon as its an effective weapon against Maruti at least for customers who are 'creditworthy'.

Win - win for car manufacturers and tax paying citizens.
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Old 11th January 2016, 11:58   #67
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Default Re: December 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Another In-depth Analysis! So glad to read the most reliable news.
Very surprised to see Creta Numbers plummet. Is Chennai floods a major factor?
Everyone seems to be saying that Baleno is eating into Swift Family numbers. If that's the case indeed, then its a Win-Win Situation for Maruti that nationwide top-seller is slowly being replaced by their latest Model. Also We can see that Swift Brand Name is still selling close to 30K vehicles every month and no one is close to them. Also the ever ending surprisingly astonishing consistency seems to be coming from Bolero month after month selling numbers without even a single penny spent to promote them!!
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Old 11th January 2016, 13:15   #68
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Default Re: December 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

It's better not read too much into the car sales\dispatch figures for december as buyers would most probably postpone their purchases inspite of new year price hikes. However, Creta's numbers seem interesting. As someone pointed out, they still have a big backlog to meet and the decrease in the numbers are hard to understand. Is Hyundai going the Ford way by trying to owe the export customers more?

Coming to the new year, I so wish and pray that TATA shines. They truly deserve better numbers for their sincere and outstanding attempts with respect to the Zest and the future launch, The Zica.

As for FIAT, after going through a harrowing buying experience - All I can say is having wonderful cars is just 20% of the job done. Sales experience constitutes a major chunk and FIAT fails miserably in this regard.
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Old 11th January 2016, 15:47   #69
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Default Re: December 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Excellent round up of Dec'15 sales, Aditya.

Big surprises(sales dips), without clear answers :
1) Ciaz - big drop in Sales
No reason I can think of.
2) Creta - drop in Sales
Probably, due to Plant shutdown in Chennai due to rains.
3) Ecosport - drop in Sales
Probably, due to Plant shutdown in Chennai due to rains. Also, Creta/Duster eating away into Ecosport.

Jan'16 will probably give more accurate picture without too many dynamic paramters to account for as in Dec'15 (year-end sales & Plant Shutdown)
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Old 11th January 2016, 22:02   #70
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Great sales analysis as always. I won't put too much attention on the year end Dec sales nos as they wont depict the actual picture due to the year end sale offered by few manufacturers on few models and also people waiting for new year models. At the best the last month in a year sales will be interesting to see.
Duster picking up might be because of the sale extended by Renault during Dec and no discounts combined with flooding impact in Chennai means reduced sales for Creta. Good to see Ertiga back to its normal 5k+ nos. Baleno seems to be a tremendous success but eating into its siblings (swift and dzire). I would expect it to settle down around 5-6k in the longer run. Because of the Baleno intro and huge discounts on SCross, I believe Maruti's own product Ciaz had to take the heat.

Will be eagerly awaiting Jan's nos. Should show a more balanced picture.
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Old 12th January 2016, 14:02   #71
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Default Re: December 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Good to see TUV 300 selling 2nd highest in Mahindra stable after the Bolero.

This also can be the effect of the ban in Delhi on Scorpio and XUV.
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Old 12th January 2016, 16:15   #72
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Default Re: December 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Maruti- Hyundai gain on Market share (Y-O-Y) due to its new launches, Honda and Tata Motors defend their share defend though the increase is only marginal.

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Mahindra & Mahindra, Toyota, Ford, Volkswagen, Nissan and GM- saw their pie shrink in 2015. Mahindra had launched a new utility vehicle TUV300 in October last year but the company had seen many monthly declines in 2015. One of the factors behind the decline was the weakness in rural and semi-urban demand that impacted sales of utility vehicles for Mahindra.

Japanese car maker Toyota did not launch any new product last year and saw share go down marginally. Ford launched two new products-Aspire and Figo. Volkswagen’s volume started declining after news of a global diesel vehicle emission scandal became public in September. French car maker Renault, which launched the entry level car Kwid at an aggressive price of Rs 2.56 lakh in September, was able to expand market share to 1.94% from 1.74% in 2014
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Old 12th January 2016, 20:53   #73
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Default Re: December 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Of the 16790 units of the Dzire sold by Maruti Suzuki in December, 3614 units were those of the previous generation Dzire Tour which happens to be the company's dedicated "taxi special" for the C1 sedan segment (source).

Not just in December, but for the past few months, the Dzire Tour's dispatches have been consistently above the 3000 units a month mark.

Correspondingly, the taxi / cab scene in many places is rapidly changing, with Dzire Tours becoming more and more prominent by the day, thereby gobbling up yellow-board market share. The Dzire Tour itself sells more than the total units of its main current fleet market rival, which also happens to be sold to private buyers. As for the previous C1 segment fleet market favourites, they have been left floundering quite badly and this is getting reflected in the everyday taxi scene (where they are steadily fading away).

Selling the Tour exclusively to the fleet market (after introducing the new sub-4m Dzire for private buyers) has not only proven to be a marketing masterstroke by Maruti Suzuki, it has also shaken up the C1 fleet market thoroughly.
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Old 15th January 2016, 19:21   #74
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Default Re: December 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Tata cars have always been good, if there was any problem it was with the electrical fittings in the car which was more due to bad quality from their chosen vendors and the other and most major reason is the the reputation of the authorized service centres over the years who first ignored the private car buyers for taxis due to the volumes they were getting and then lack of training.
I have a Manza and honestly never faced any problems in the last 4 years have always got prompt service.
But now Tata Motors is paying a heavy price for the bad reputation of the dealers/ service centres and lack of vision in terms of providing futuristic products or design. Now they have started heading in the right direction but with the customer spoilt for choice they are facing an uphill task inspite of good products like Bolt, Zest or the latest Nano.
We always wish that as an Indian manufacturer they come out of this successfully and once again be amongst the top.
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Old 15th January 2016, 20:20   #75
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Default Re: December 2015 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

European companies are in a position to offer excellent finance schemes as they have access to cheap capital at home.

This is more of a myth , if you factor hedging costs their cost of borrowing even if allowed will be same as any domestic institution ( I doubt they are presently allowed to borrow from overseas at first place as per my limited interactions with BMW Finance )

Last edited by Turbanator : 15th January 2016 at 20:24.
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