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Old 16th May 2016, 22:53   #16
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Default Re: Sales of sub-4 meter cars in India

Originally Posted by veyron_head View Post
a.) Was the manufacturer able to increase sales because of making a product sub 4m. For example, Did the sales of the Dzire CS or the Indigo CS(the pioneer of <4m segment) go up in the following months after they reduced the length of the car. Historical data of a few months preceding/after the launch of Dzire CS can reveal this.
Dzire was selling an average of 7-8K units per month in its pre-sub-4m avatar and jumped to 14-15K units post sub-4m, so yes actually it has helped to garner more sales.

And when Ford substitutes the Fiesta / Classic with the new Aspire, it is actually losing the sales. The Fiesta / Classic combination used to sell close to 2K units per month whereas Aspire has already fallen to the last position in the segment despite being a competent product.

One thing is clear - perception matters a lot in our market - case in point, Dzire and Aspire.
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Old 17th May 2016, 13:52   #17
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Default Re: Sales of sub-4 meter cars in India

Thanks for the insightful thread!!!

However, I tend to disagree with some findings - in fact, the whole basis of the analysis. Since Majority of our market is dominated by hatchbacks and majority of hatchbacks are < 4m, this analysis is skewed. I am putting below a slightly different comparison. i.e 4 m vs non-4 m.

Most of the cars in India which are exactly (or slightly below) 4 m are international hatchbacks chopped to meet the 4 m rule or India specific sedans / UV / Crosses built just to take benefit of this rule. Most hatchbacks well below 4 m were not built to satisfy the India specific rules - they were meant to be that way.

Please Note: All the figures below are based on the numbers from April 2016 Indian Car sales thread (April 2016 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis)

1. Sales Distribution based on length

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This is an interesting picture IMO. Almost Half the vehicles sold are less than 4 m in length and among the other half, half is 4 m and other half is 4+ m. Or in other words, 3 quarter of the vehicles sold are non 4 m.

2. Body Style Distribution in the 4 m Segment

This includes premium hatchbacks like i20, Jazz, Baleno, Polo, Liva, Punto, all 4m Sedans and UV / Crosses.

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Sedans and Hatchbacks have an almost equal share, while the UVs are falling slightly behind in the count.

3. Body Style Distribution in the non-4 m Segment

This includes all vehicles not in the above list.

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Hatchbacks of < 4 m dominate this segment totally. UVs like Eeco and Omni are < 4 m and have a decent presence. In the 4+ m segment, UVs dominate the sedans - a trend we have acknowledged in the C and D segments.

4. Hatchbacks - Length based comparison

This includes all the hatchbacks on sale. This compares the Premium hatchbacks (4 m) vs the normal ones.

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The chopped hatchbacks form just one fifth of the total sales - so, I believe the 4 m rule probably played very little impact here. If these hatchbacks were lengthier, probably their sales would have been lower. But that does not necessarily mean the sales of premium hatchbacks boosted because of the 4 m rule. Another fact is that the number of <4 m hatchbacks easily outnumber the number of 4 m hatchbacks.

5. UVs - Length based comparison

This includes all the SUVs, MUVs and Crossovers on sale. This compares the <4 m UVs (Eeco + Omni) vs Compact UVs (Ecosport, Brezza, TUV, Nuvosport, Go+ and Avventura) vs the normal ones.

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It is very clear that 4 m SUVs do not necessarily form a huge chunk of the market. Market loves proper sized crossovers like the Creta, Duster, S-Cross and full sized SUVs like Scorpio, Fortuner, Endeavour, XUV and full sized MUVs like Ertiga and Innova. Another fact is that the number of 4+ m UVs easily outnumber the number of 4 m UVs.

6. Sedan - Length based comparison

This includes all the sedans on sale. This compares the Normal Sedans (4+ m) vs the chopped ones.

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This is the only segment where the 4 m rule clearly plays a huge role. Well over half the sedans sold in the country today are 4 m ones. This in spite of having only limited number of models. 2 reasons contribute to this:
  • For 4 m sedan: Sedan at the cost of a premium hatchback
  • Against 4+ m sedan: Premium crossovers or 7 seaters at a slight premium
7. Number of Models

This chart compares the number of models selling more than 0 units in each segment distributed across lengths <4 m, 4 m and 4+ m

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There are quite a number of models in the 4+ m UV mainly because it includes Crossovers, MUVs and SUVs.

Short Summary
  • Very less number of 4 m models and the 4 m sedan sells quite well compared to bigger ones - which is actually a game changer in India!!!
  • Even though 4 m hatchbacks sell almost same number as 4 m sedans, the smaller hatchbacks sell 4 times the numbers.
  • In UV sector, 4+ m segment is clearly the winner with both number of models and number of units sold
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