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Old 10th May 2016, 10:06   #1
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Default Sales of sub-4 meter cars in India

I tried to see the effect of the 4 meter length rule of Govt of India on the sales figures.

Total number of vehicle sales under 4 meters for April 2016 = 176712
Total number of vehicle sales above 4 meters for April 2016 = 61878

Therefore, 74% of vehicles are below 4 meters. Astounding.

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Further, checked the total count of the vehicles.

Count of vehicles under 4 meters for April 2016 = 41
Count of vehicles above 4 meters for April 2016 = 49

(Count does not include vehicles which recorded ZERO sales in Apr)

Name:  Sales 2.JPG
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Size:  22.2 KB

Last edited by GTO : 11th May 2016 at 15:27. Reason: Moving your post to a new thread :). Thanks for sharing!
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Old 10th May 2016, 10:14   #2
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Default Re: April 2016 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by drive2eternity View Post
Thanks for the Report Aditya.

Apart from the wonderful analysis done by fellow TBhpians, I tried to see the effect of the 4 meter length rule of Govt of India on the sales figures.

Total number of vehicle sales under 4 meters for April 2016 = 176712
Total number of vehicle sales above 4 meters for April 2016 = 61878

Therefore, 74% of vehicles are below 4 meters. Astounding.

Attachment 1505616

Further, checked the total count of the vehicles.

Count of vehicles under 4 meters for April 2016 = 41
Count of vehicles above 4 meters for April 2016 = 49

(Count does not include vehicles which recorded ZERO sales in Apr)

Attachment 1505617
Isn't that obvious? Can't say this skew in numbers is due to the 4m length rule. Sub four metres would include all the mass market cars like Alto, Kwid, Eon etc. Hence, their numbers will be more than the segment of cars above 4m. Above 4m means, they are far more expensive cars as well.
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Old 10th May 2016, 10:24   #3
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Default Re: April 2016 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by drive2eternity View Post
Thanks for the Report Aditya.

Apart from the wonderful analysis done by fellow TBhpians, I tried to see the effect of the 4 meter length rule of Govt of India on the sales figures.

Total number of vehicle sales under 4 meters for April 2016 = 176712
Total number of vehicle sales above 4 meters for April 2016 = 61878

Therefore, 74% of vehicles are below 4 meters. Astounding.
Not surprising at all, considering the fact that our market is predominantly a small hatch one.
This recent report in Economic Times illustrates it well.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...w/52158687.cms
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Old 10th May 2016, 15:13   #4
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Default Re: April 2016 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by drive2eternity View Post
Thanks for the Report Aditya.

Apart from the wonderful analysis done by fellow TBhpians, I tried to see the effect of the 4 meter length rule of Govt of India on the sales figures.

Total number of vehicle sales under 4 meters for April 2016 = 176712
Total number of vehicle sales above 4 meters for April 2016 = 61878

...

Further, checked the total count of the vehicles.

Count of vehicles under 4 meters for April 2016 = 41
Count of vehicles above 4 meters for April 2016 = 49
Good perspective.
  • How many of them under 4 meters are sedans?
  • What is the split of the total sedan sold - split by under 4 meters and above?
These graphs will make this analysis more interesting:
  1. It could possibly show that because sub-4-meter sedans are compact and affordable, buyers are favouring them!
  2. It could possibly also show that because sub-4-meter sedans are made affordable and mass market, sellers are able to sell sedans in bigger numbers!
See if you would like to put yearly projections for the last 5 years OR compare this year's numbers with 5 years ago!

Thanks,
C_
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Old 10th May 2016, 15:47   #5
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Default Re: April 2016 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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Originally Posted by Coolman View Post
Good perspective. [list][*]How many of them under 4 meters are sedans?

C_
Though I was unable to gather historical data, did deep-dive within the 4 meter segment to see what was the contribution of Compact Sedans and SUVs (Ecosport, TUV, Nuvosport and Brezza).

According to me, a 15% share held by these vehicles is a testament for their success. Success of 'India Specific' engineering.

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Old 11th May 2016, 15:28   #6
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Default Re: Sales of sub-4 meter cars in India

Thanks for sharing, drive2eternity! Moving your very interesting post into a new thread.
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Old 11th May 2016, 15:52   #7
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Default Re: Sales of sub-4 meter cars in India

Good thread

1) Yes the market is getting skewed below 4Ms so some of the vehicles like the EcoSport, TUV 300, NuvoSport would normally have been longer than 4Ms and instead are below 4 mts to avail of the tax savings.

2) But in natural course most Indians would presently buy vehicles below 4mts from the perspective of their budget as well.

3) The savings on account of the price being below 4 mths is in my view overrated and almost 75% of those buyers would have bought the same vehicles even if they were a bit over 4 mts at an extra 10% extra cost as well. I know that I would have done that with the EcoSport even if it cost a bit more and would infact have preferred to pay and get a longer version if possible.

4) Compact Sedans and Compacted SUV's are the two creations of the 4mts rule and they just make for relatively more ugly versions of the globally available vehicles or made for India compact vehicles.

5) How does the Govt. or India gain by limiting length and ground clearance? It is poor policy formation.
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Old 12th May 2016, 11:57   #8
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Default Re: Sales of sub-4 meter cars in India

Yes the sub 4m tax policy has led to development of compact sedans and SUVs which are now being exported globally.

So an instance of "made for India" product getting global acceptance also shows that these are are good cars to own in spite of the physical constraints.

2 new regulations coming up which can change the future:
- GST regime might end the sub 4m regulation all together in India.
- Hybrids now attract only 12% excise duty like small cars. Ciaz and Ertiga SVHS has benefited the most from this, other cars in the category attract 24%+ excise duty and recently announced infra cess. Only a matter of time manufacturers start innovating with mild hybrids to take tax benefits.

I am surprised M&M has not got a similar version of its SUVs.
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Old 12th May 2016, 13:26   #9
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Default Re: Sales of sub-4 meter cars in India

I think Sedans are about 24251, in sub 4m segment and 17692 in midsize and above (> 4m)

Last edited by Prafful_Rathod : 12th May 2016 at 13:30.
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Old 12th May 2016, 13:55   #10
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Default Re: Sales of sub-4 meter cars in India

Quote:
Originally Posted by ACM View Post
Good thread

The savings on account of the price being below 4 mths is in my view overrated and almost 75% of those buyers would have bought the same vehicles even if they were a bit over 4 mts at an extra 10% extra cost as well. I know that I would have done that with the EcoSport even if it cost a bit more and would infact have preferred to pay and get a longer version if possible.

Compact Sedans and Compacted SUV's are the two creations of the 4mts rule and they just make for relatively more ugly versions of the globally available vehicles or made for India compact vehicles.
2 very valid points.

I too think some vehicles should be just more than 4 meters for:
a- them to get the proper look with the right proportions (ex Dzire)
b- them to have enough space for front and rear passengers and luggage (ex. Ecosport)

Coming to ugliness, though it is very subjective, but again, all of the Sub 4m vehicles look like the designer started with a lot of panache in the beginning and then suddenly had to rush to an emergency before he could complete the rear of the car.

If anyone could provide with some numbers, as to what would an Ecosport cost if it was 4.1 meters in length compared to now, that would be interesting.
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Old 12th May 2016, 15:35   #11
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Default Re: Sales of sub-4 meter cars in India

Came across this article

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Has the excise duty for sub meter cars changed from 12% to 8%???

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http://www.charteredclub.com/excise-...cars-in-india/

The following article explains the taxes and the beneficiary

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http://www.mycarhelpline.com/index.p...=572&Itemid=10

Last edited by Karthik Chandra : 12th May 2016 at 15:42.
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Old 12th May 2016, 16:09   #12
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Default Re: Sales of sub-4 meter cars in India

Quote:
Originally Posted by drive2eternity View Post
2 very valid points.

I too think some vehicles should be just more than 4 meters for:
a- them to get the proper look with the right proportions (ex Dzire)
b- them to have enough space for front and rear passengers and luggage (ex. Ecosport)

Coming to ugliness, though it is very subjective, but again, all of the Sub 4m vehicles look like the designer started with a lot of panache in the beginning and then suddenly had to rush to an emergency before he could complete the rear of the car.
Completely agree. Some sub 4m cars would have definitely looked much more better. maybe even would have been selling much more than what they are now in sub 4m size.

The older Dzire was a much more practical car than the current one. The short clipped boot doesn't feel justified considering the fact that there hasn't been much price difference in the current version and the previous one.
Another car that i would like to add to the list would be the Ford Aspire. Had it been a regular full sized sedan it would have looked much better aesthetically. I think it's a totally VFM car considering the better overall quality of Ford's nowadays and had it been a full sized sedan it could have given the segment leader City a run for it's money!
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Old 12th May 2016, 16:42   #13
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Default Re: Sales of sub-4 meter cars in India

Hatchbacks have always between sub 4m in our country even before the rule was put in place.
So, it is only the compact sedans & SUVs that try to make the most out of this trend, as they were all more than 4m before.
To get the trend, I believe we should see the sales of sub 4m sedans (Dzire, Xcent, Amaze, Aspire, Zest, Indigo CS) against the rest of the sedans available in the market (C2, D1 and D2 segment sedans).
Similarly, if you consider the SUVs, there are not many compact SUVs around, taking advantage of this fact - Ecosport, TUV300, Nuvosport, Vitara Brezza are the ones around. Comparing this with the rest of all the SUVs may not be the proper comparison, because the seating capacity, body style etc varies considerably.

These are becoming popular because now the manufacturers are now producing innovative designs with lot of interior space at less price.
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Old 13th May 2016, 16:33   #14
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Default Re: Sales of sub-4 meter cars in India

I am not sure including the Alto, Wagon-r and the likes in this analysis would be indicative of the actual effect on the sales because of the manufacturer leveraging the <4m rule. The Altos and WagonRs have always been well less than 4m since time immemorial. They were not made with the aim of keeping the length under 4m. I cant imagine a 4.3 MM long Alto! Hence including the Alto which sells the highest number in India, would naturally show that Sub4m cars outnumber others by a huge margin. The Alto sold because its an Alto not because its less than <4m. The sub 4m duty saving has no relevance here.

Hence, What we need to find out is if the under 4m duty saving indeed help the manufacturer sell more cars. Below points is what I think would lend credibility to such an analysis:

a.) Was the manufacturer able to increase sales because of making a product sub 4m. For example, Did the sales of the Dzire CS or the Indigo CS(the pioneer of <4m segment) go up in the following months after they reduced the length of the car. Historical data of a few months preceding/after the launch of Dzire CS can reveal this.

b.) A hypothetical analysis of how the sales of an Ecosport or Brezza would have been affected had they been more than 4m. Would the sales have been affected at all? Case in point is the Duster, which I believe is more than 4m. It was called a compact SUV but it didn't get the duty savings yet it set the sales charts on fire for a long time. So in this case, did the sub 4m length really matter at all?

Last edited by veyron_head : 13th May 2016 at 16:42. Reason: grammar & added more points
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Old 16th May 2016, 21:55   #15
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Default Re: Sales of sub-4 meter cars in India

Quote:
Originally Posted by drive2eternity View Post
I tried to see the effect of the 4 meter length rule of Govt of India on the sales figures.

Total number of vehicle sales under 4 meters for April 2016 = 176712
Total number of vehicle sales above 4 meters for April 2016 = 61878

Therefore, 74% of vehicles are below 4 meters. Astounding.

Attachment 1505616

Further, checked the total count of the vehicles.

Count of vehicles under 4 meters for April 2016 = 41
Count of vehicles above 4 meters for April 2016 = 49

(Count does not include vehicles which recorded ZERO sales in Apr)

Attachment 1505617



Very interesting observations. Initially the sub 4 meter rule was utilized to the fullest by Tata Indigo ecs. Dzire followed the suit in such a fashion that it became a trendsetter. Amaze, Zest, Ecosport, KUV100, Brezza - there is a large list of the cars which fell just short of 4 meter to enjoy the tax benefits.


We can see most of the bulky cars with either chauffeur in the seat or just one passenger in the back seat. without sub 4 meter rule we can easily imagine the chaos with the increased density of the cars.

still big cars have their own advantage where the family or a group is moving together but with the judicial verdicts coming against cars with big engines, the future belongs to the sub 4 meter cars.
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