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Old 25th May 2016, 17:04   #121
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Default re: NGT bans 10+ year old diesel vehicles in Kerala. EDIT: High Court stays ban

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Originally Posted by greatgyan View Post
I don't understand why this sudden hatred against Diesel cars





The 2,000 cc ban is more of a symbolic decision to showcase that we're making the auto industry and the rich pay for their polluting diesel vehicles. The authorities know that this decision will have negligible repercussions and can be showcased as "action" against pollution. On the ground, we all know that this will have absolutely no impact on pollution.

Some of your observations share the sentiments of the people at large.

limiting pollution has to be top priority for the Government/Policy Makers, as city after city are being engulfed by ever menacing pollution, but the following points need immediate attentions of the PLANNERS.

1. Picking up only diesel cars, that too without sufficient notice by the Government, will hurt the buyers as well as the car makers.
2. Who will pay for those cars, which despite being in good shape and being within pollution norms would sink crores of rupees. Poor car owners.
3. apart from cars, large number of other sources pollute the atmosphere. There has to be a systematic study of the all the causes and a phased plan for limiting the pollution, so that only diesel cars are not picked up as 'favorite punching bag'.
4. Take the case of Maggi ban, lakhs of Dhabas are still selling highly contaminated food but as the law enforcement authorities picked up Maggi for a ban, nobody bothered to cleans the system permanently by taking action against big defaulters.
5. Government should have introduced efficient public transport system, to curb the tendency/requirement of keeping personal cars.
6. It was the job of the policy makers to allow sale of only those cars, which do not harm the atmosphere. Why the poor car buyer is being punished for the fault of the Government/Policy makers.
7. Such sudden shift in policy will hurt the car industry, Toyota has expressed deep concern for the car makers as to how any car maker would invest in car business in an atmosphere of uncertainty.

We should hope that NGT and Hon'ble Supreme Court will be presented with the facts by the Government, car makers and NGOs and a favourable decision comes in the favour of the car owners.
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Old 25th May 2016, 18:08   #122
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Default re: NGT bans 10+ year old diesel vehicles in Kerala. EDIT: High Court stays ban

Very interesting article from ET - "Ban on diesel vehicles to help consolidate Marutiís market position":

Quote:
ET INTELLIGENCE GROUP: The clamp down on sale of diesel vehicles may consolidate the market dominance of Maruti Suzuki, India's largest car maker. After Delhi, Kerala imposed the ban following an order by the National Green Tribunal. The two states figure in the list of top five passenger car markets in India and together account for nearly 14% of the sales.

Diesel passenger cars, which are priced about a lakh more, are also losing out to petrol cars - the other factor that may help Maruti gain market share and grow at higher than industry average. At present, for every 10 cars sold in a year, 5 or 6 are petrol; three years ago it was 4. Analysts believe that the combined impact of ban and price advantage may push this to 7. The increasing share of petrol vehicles will support Maruti's earnings growth. Why?

First, Maruti enjoys 60% market share in the petrol vehicles as against 28% in diesel sales volumes. The petrol passenger car has been the company's forte. Higher sales growth in petrol vehicles would translate into higher incremental volumes.

Since 2013 the company's market share (in the entire passenger car market) has grown to 46.1% in 2015 from 42.8% in 2013; during the same period, the share in the petrol vehicles rose 200 basis points to 60.2%.

Second, a higher share in the market for petrol cars (which are less expensive) may not necessarily shrink Maruti's margins (as most investors perceive). A higher demand, coupled with higher capacity utilisation and lower discounts (offered to buyers), would is likely to support the company's margins. In the last quarter of FY16, the average discount offered by Maruti dropped to Rs 17,600 per vehicle from Rs 22,000 in the previous quarter. The company has installed capacity to manufacture 11-11.50 lakh petrol cars in a year.

The street is factoring in 12-14% and 10-12% volume growth for Maruti in FY17 and FY18 respectively. This should translate into an earnings growth of 30% and 16% in the respective years. The stock is trading at 16 times of FY18 projected earnings, which appears reasonable amid double digit volume growth and growing presence in the passenger car segment.
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Old 25th May 2016, 20:11   #123
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Default re: NGT bans 10+ year old diesel vehicles in Kerala. EDIT: High Court stays ban

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Originally Posted by Viju View Post
I wish the government brought a nationwide policy of restricting the life of vehicles, instead of courts and NGT issuing such rulings as and when they please.

When the NGT passes such an order, do they consider the plight of commercial vehicle owners (buses, lorries and taxies) whose vehicles are rendered useless overnight? Forget fleet owners, what about small time businessmen who have may be 2 or 3 buses or lorries, and that too bought second-hand and are over 10 years old? How does NGT make up for the loss of their livelihoods?

The same goes for private car owners as well who might have bought a used diesel car with their life-savings only because that is what they could afford to buy and run.

Why is it not possible to have annual or bi-annual fitness tests to determine whether a vehicle is allowed to ply on the roads or not?

I am from Cochin and do agree that the increase in pollution and temperature in the past few years have been alarming. But targeting only diesel vehicles for this change is a very narrow and myopic way of looking at the situation. Pollution is also because of the rapid increase in construction (including metro, malls and apartments) and the drastic loss of vegetation.

Wonder if anyone has the interest in analyzing things in detail before coming to such conclusions which affect the lives of lakhs of people.

And I fail to understand the logic behind targeting diesel engines over 2L. How did anyone come to this figure of 2L and what studies were done?! God only knows.

Montesquieu, propounded the theory of 'Separation of Power', which requires that the Executive ,Legislature and Judiciary should work independently and should not encroach upon each others jurisdiction.

As it happened, the Executive failed to take the lead and now the Judiciary is firmly in the business of lying down rules, which hitherto was the job of the Executive.
As the legislatures come from the public, they normally frame laws that do not hurt the public sentiments. The Courts have for most of the time, created Laws, which benefit public at large but sometimes, due to lack of sufficient material before them, they pass orders which adversely affect the people at large and become subject matter of debate.

in present situation only 3 remedies are possible :-

(A) NGT on additional material before them, revises their previous orders. ( Chances very dim)
(B) Supreme Court reverses/modifies the NGT orders.
(C) The Parliament by 2/3 majority, amends the NGT order, but it will require the Government and the opposition to vote in favour of the new Law.
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Old 25th May 2016, 21:33   #124
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Default re: NGT bans 10+ year old diesel vehicles in Kerala. EDIT: High Court stays ban

The MVD, the arm of the government which is duty bound to implement this ruling, has decided to appeal against it.

The Transport commissioner has stated that MVD was not consulted by the tribunal before the final ruling.

The MVD will face challenges while implementing the order in the present form, hence most likely they may appeal for a change in the time frame or some particular aspects of the order rather than going all out for quashing the ruling.

Two key points may have prompted the tribunal to come to this conclusion.

Diesel exhaust is more deadly than petrol exhaust. It's a scientific fact.

Due to skewed prices, SUVs are having a big incentive. 2000cc engines are not used in many passenger cars. The limit is fixed mostly to target SUVs.


The term Subsidy may not be apt to describe the fuel prices. I regret my usage of the term.

Despite same refining costs, diesel is sold at a lower price, which is a governmental intervention and should the benefit be extended to SUVs, that too to the ones which are not in their prime ?

Since 'subsidy' amounts to financial aid or change of free market dynamics by governmental intervension, in principle it may not be far from the truth.

The NGT's order clearly has a moral high ground but it has implementation issues,which will be resolved by further judicial consultation.

My posts are not targeted at SUV owners in the forum and I don't blindly hate SUVs. Many would have bought them strictly out of need.

But there is a need to discourage people from buying them unless they have a strict need like off roading which can be full filled only by SUVs.

SUVs are popular only in new world countries like U.S and Australia where infrastructure was developed after 1700s. In Europe and India they are mostly inappropriate because our infrastructure is old and narrow.
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Old 25th May 2016, 23:09   #125
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Default re: NGT bans 10+ year old diesel vehicles in Kerala. EDIT: High Court stays ban

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Originally Posted by greatgyan View Post
The plan sounds good on paper, but in real world conditions, I have my reservations. You very well know that this would open up a massive corruption avenue where anyone can get the required certificate by bribing his way through the process. And conversely perhaps, even if someone has a totally legal car, he or she may not be given clearance unless he or she greases the palms of certain officials.
The idea is definitely the most logical way to deal with the current situation. But with regards to India, it might just cause further corruption.
We need some faith corruption will go down. It needs educated youth ready to step up and prevent this greasing. End of the day pollution will always be a concern...
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Old 25th May 2016, 23:18   #126
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I guess the next step would be declaring 1.4 DDiS as the national engine of India.

We will have soon buses running on this , with parallel connection.
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Old 25th May 2016, 23:34   #127
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Quote:
Originally Posted by greatgyan View Post
You very well know that this would open up a massive corruption avenue where anyone can get the required certificate by bribing his way through the process. And conversely perhaps, even if someone has a totally legal car, he or she may not be given clearance unless he or she greases the palms of certain officials.
The idea is definitely the most logical way to deal with the current situation. But with regards to India, it might just cause further corruption.
This is where digitisation can help I think. The central government is anyway digitizing most of the things and this shouldn't be a major issue if implemented well. Once you make this automated at many steps, there wouldn't be much scope for corruption too. Things get much easier for everyone this way, and it's a win-win for the government,for the mvd and ofcourse all thospe who own the aforementioned cars. If there is a well there always is a way.

Just my two cents

Just my
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Old 25th May 2016, 23:56   #128
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Default re: NGT bans 10+ year old diesel vehicles in Kerala. EDIT: High Court stays ban

The above data might have some inconsistency since big and small size SUV'/MUV are tagged under SUV/MUV category together. Even then the 73% (hatch and sedans) are angels while the 27% remaining are sinners.

I don't think anyone is against measures that will help protect the environment. And i thought the increasing prices of diesel and strict implementation of Emission norms (like Bharat IV/VI) were part of the plan. I hope the NGT takes a more practical approach than trying to demonise SUV's. Looks like the message given is that the rich pollute while the poor and middle class do not. This seems so similar to the bar closure fiasco in Kerala. I do not know how overnight bans help in solving an important problem like pollution without targeting the root cause

Last edited by sunishsamuel : 26th May 2016 at 00:01.
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Old 26th May 2016, 02:01   #129
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Default re: NGT bans 10+ year old diesel vehicles in Kerala. EDIT: High Court stays ban

when the NGT initiates the hearing, generally, either NGT or the Government invite the suggestions from the people. That is the time to give concrete suggestions so that the Law makers have useful relevant information, before putting abrupt ban on any vehicle.
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Old 26th May 2016, 09:53   #130
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Default re: NGT bans 10+ year old diesel vehicles in Kerala. EDIT: High Court stays ban

Diesel vehicle ban in Kerala: PIL challenges NGT order
Quote:
KOCHI: A public interest litigation (PIL) has been filed before the Kerala High Court questioning National Green Tribunal (NGT) Kochi circuit bench's order banning diesel vehicles older than 10 years from plying in the state.

The PIL was filed by advocate ML George alleges that the NGT's order has far-reaching consequences but was passed without hearing the views of the central or state governments or any other agencies concerned.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/c.../52437937.cms?
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Old 26th May 2016, 10:07   #131
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Default re: NGT bans 10+ year old diesel vehicles in Kerala. EDIT: High Court stays ban

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Originally Posted by Captain Haddock View Post
Diesel exhaust is more deadly than petrol exhaust. It's a scientific fact.
It is today, but mainly due to sulfur in fuel. It is for the govt to push refiners to go in directly for Euro IV compatible diesel. Even today most of the diesel sold all over except 28 major cities is BS III compatible and not BS IV.
Just removal of sulfur from diesel will clean the exhaust of all diesel engines BS II and above standards considerably.
It is a fact that 80% of vehicles on road are BSIII and above, most older vehicles are already off the road for different reasons.
Another fact is many car makers have been selling only BSIV compatible vehicles.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain Haddock View Post

Due to skewed prices, SUVs are having a big incentive. 2000cc engines are not used in many passenger cars. The limit is fixed mostly to target SUVs.
What skewed pricing. A SUV attracts 30% exise duty during manufacture, against 12% for sub 4 M cars. one time Tax while registeration is 14% to 20% where it is 9% for sub 4 M Petrol and 11 % for sub 4 M diesel. Even Municipal LBT (where ever applicable) is 5% of ex showroom price rather than 3%.
SUV buyers have already payed a few lakh rupees more at source, even interest from this will not be recovered from the Rs 9.00 or so difference in price of petrol and Diesel. Only reason to prefer diesel is the fuel effeciency which remains 40% higher than petrol in smaller engines and nearly twice as high in bigger ones.

During AIMTC strike against Toll, they had offered either a one time Tax or a Rs 10 increase in Diesel price to offset toll, govt should have taken it and eased every ones life.

Industry was ready with BS IV engines in 2008 and are capable of going BS VI within two years of notification, but it is the government that is shying away from this, and finally resorting to such silly rules and dikkats which penalise vehicle owners.
Diesel cars made to Euro VI norms are far cleaner than most other fuels, they need addition of Add blue along with diesel, 2 Lit engines draw about 20 lit / 15000 km, and a 10 Lit can costs about 22 euro for a 10 Lit can which is about Rs 170/Lit.
Action like making BS VI diesel available country wide within an year, and rule like shifting 1500 cc + diesels to be Euro IV after 1 Year with others to follow within next two will be more viable.
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Old 26th May 2016, 11:31   #132
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Default re: NGT bans 10+ year old diesel vehicles in Kerala. EDIT: High Court stays ban

Adulteration 101:

Vehicular Pollution is not due to the engine capacity of vehicles. It's due to diesel adulteration.

In cold countries, kerosene is blended by the refinery in the ratio's 80:20,70:30 or even 50:50.

I'm not sure if it's done in South India by the refinery. However, many people are well read. So, unscrupulous bunks procure subsidized kerosene (without blue dye), mix and sell.
No way to identify this outside of a laboratory.
The cheaper way is to mix used industrial solvents. These are available cheap. People will pay you to take it away. This mixes well with diesel.
This is easy to spot. The fuel will be darker.

While the above are bad, worse is when your top quality ultra low sulphur is adulterated with high sulphur kerosene. Nobody can estimate that pollution.

The first thing that happens is your catalytic converter stops working. Maybe it will work again with clean fuel. Maybe not. I don't know. 99% it's to be changed.

Black fumes are produced in some non-intelligent vehicles. That's a sign of enthusiastic kerosene addition. Unless you live in Ladak. Then it's normal.

Mfrs. too need to get into this debate in courts. They must engage in public education regarding all this. They seem very reticent.

Last edited by hangover : 26th May 2016 at 11:32.
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Old 26th May 2016, 11:42   #133
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Default re: NGT bans 10+ year old diesel vehicles in Kerala. EDIT: High Court stays ban

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Originally Posted by avdhesh15 View Post
Very interesting article from ET - "Ban on diesel vehicles to help consolidate Marutiís market position":
So the open truth is finally published. Precisely the point from which everything has started. Only some reasoning needed to be framed to implement the same and that's what is going on now, slowly and steadily!
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Old 26th May 2016, 12:01   #134
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Default re: NGT bans 10+ year old diesel vehicles in Kerala. EDIT: High Court stays ban

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Originally Posted by avdhesh15 View Post
Very interesting article from ET - "Ban on diesel vehicles to help consolidate Maruti’s market position":
The ban might become as an advantage not only for Maruti but also for Hyundai. But one thing is clear from the writings on the wall - it would be Mahindra who pushed for the 2000cc limit. The single act of Mahindra introducing a 1.99L Diesel engine just after the ban in Delhi clearly points out it. How can a manufacturer introduce a new engine in such a short period of time?

Had it been Maruti, the limit would have been 1300CC . Their 1.6L engine is not doing much business.

Last edited by romeomidhun : 26th May 2016 at 12:03.
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Old 26th May 2016, 12:14   #135
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Default re: NGT bans 10+ year old diesel vehicles in Kerala. EDIT: High Court stays ban

Now Kerala CBSE School Managements have also protested against the ruling as most of their school buses are more than 10 years old and they run an average of only 15000 kms in 10 years !

Source - New Indian Express
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