Go Back   Team-BHP > BHP India > The Indian Car Scene


Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old 9th September 2016, 06:41   #61
BHPian
 
Ketan T's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Location: Pune
Posts: 145
Thanked: 62 Times
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pacifica View Post
Leaving the rest of the impressive analysis aside, how on earth is Maruti managing to sell 7,000+ units of the Omni? That contraption was obsolete at least a decade ago and Maruti is still selling it?

And just who is buying this thing in such huge numbers?
Omni is used mostly for commercial purposes now. I see a lot of Omnis used as taxis too. Also, it has a good demand in rural market.
Ketan T is offline   (1) Thanks
Old 9th September 2016, 10:25   #62
BHPian
 
GKMahajan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: Pune/Mumbai
Posts: 536
Thanked: 692 Times
Default Re: August 2016 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ketan T View Post
Omni is used mostly for commercial purposes now. I see a lot of Omnis used as taxis too. Also, it has a good demand in rural market.
I agree.

Adding to that - I see a lot of these used for school children!

Girish Mahajan
GKMahajan is offline  
Old 9th September 2016, 20:48   #63
BHPian
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Location: Chennai
Posts: 154
Thanked: 298 Times
Default Re: August 2016 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Had some time to kill - so thought of calculating the Revenues for all the cars and the OEM's corresponding Revenue Market Share vis-a-vis Volume Market Share.

Earlier I have used the Median Ex-Showroom price to calculate the Revenue - link here (http://www.team-bhp.com/forum/indian...ml#post3929040 (Top selling cars & their sales % contribution to the company)).

But, this time around, thought of using the 75th Percentile of all the variants Ex-Showroom price, since recently there were news about that most of the cars sold are higher variants (from Maruti, Hyundai, Toyota, et al).

Good that MS Excel have a formula to calculate the 75th Percentile value, given the range of values as input (PERCENTILE.EXC(<range>, <Percentile value>).

I have used the Avg. Ex-Showroom Price from Carwale.com (instead of Delhi) for all the cars and for all the variants. In the below image, I have also given the Price of Base Variant, Top Variant and their Median and 75th Percentile Price for easy understanding. The revenues are then calculated by multiplying the number of units with the 75th Percentile price to get the total revenue for the car.

Please note that these are just some approximate values and the actual revenues for each car may vary which only the Manufacturers would know. This exercise is solely to find out how the Cars and OEMs will be ranked and whether the actual volumes will convert in to revenues.

I must admit that I started this purely on the back of Innova Crysta's astonishing sales numbers and how much revenue Toyota must be earning from Innova alone.

And as I suspected, Innova is the leader in terms of Revenue followed by another over-priced car - the Creta. Dzire rounded up the Top-3 (but it can be either way w.r.t Creta & Dzire since the difference in revenues are smaller - it can change based on the Variant which is selling more for both cars. But no doubts about the Innova - it has a healthy lead at the top).

Top 25 Cars based on Revenue (calculated based on 75th Percentile of the Avg. Ex-Showroom Price)
August 2016 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis-top-25-cars-revenue.png

1. Hyundai has 3 cars in Top 5, while Maruti has 6 in Top 10.
2. Note that Grand i10, Swift and Brezza are close in the numbers, so these 3 can be in either of these places based on the variants sold.
3. XUV, BR-V and S-Cross moved in to Top 25 while Omni, Eon and Redi-Go moved out of Top 25.

Top 25 Cars based on Sales Volume (and their corresponding Revenue rank)
August 2016 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis-top-25-cars-volume.png

OEM's Volume Market Share Vs Revenue Market Share
Name:  OEM Market Share.png
Views: 3825
Size:  19.6 KB

1. As expected, Toyoto's Revenue market share has more than double when compared to the Volume market share and thus making them the 3rd in the Revenue ranking list.
2. Maruti's market share falls down from 47% to approx. 37-38% which is expected due to the volumes in the entry level segment.
3. Tata, Renault and Datsum are the other OEM's to experience fall in Revenue market share when compared to Volume market share.

P.S.: Please note the revenues for the 3 Germans, JLR, Volvo, Porsche and other Luxury car makers are not included, who may have more revenue market share when compared to their minimal volume market share.
jpcoolguy is online now   (18) Thanks
Old 9th September 2016, 21:44   #64
BHPian
 
Hayek's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Bombay
Posts: 698
Thanked: 1,587 Times
Default August 2016 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by jpcoolguy View Post
Had some time to kill - so thought of calculating the Revenues for all the cars and the OEM's corresponding Revenue Market Share vis-a-vis Volume Market Share.



1. Toyoto's Revenue market share has more than double vs Volume market share and thus making them the 3rd in the Revenue ranking list.

2. Maruti's market share falls down from 47% to approx. 37-38% .

P.S.: Please note the revenues for the 3 Germans, JLR, Volvo, Porsche and other Luxury car makers are not included, who may have more revenue market share when compared to their minimal volume market share.

Great analysis - something I have been keen on doing. Would be worthwhile if you publish the entire table beyond just the Top 25 models.

Among the Germans, Mercedes and Audi sell 950 and 850 cars a month. Assuming an average price of Rs. 40 lakhs (probably an underestimate), Mercedes sells Rs. 380 cr and Audi Rs. 340 cr

In short Mercedes may be the largest selling German brand (above VW), and Audi sells almost as much as its parent. And VW group with ~ 4.7% revenue market share ranks ahead of Ford and Tata.

Last edited by Hayek : 9th September 2016 at 21:45.
Hayek is offline   (2) Thanks
Old 10th September 2016, 06:16   #65
BHPian
 
Sree73's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Location: Bangalore
Posts: 584
Thanked: 659 Times
Default Re: August 2016 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ketan T View Post
Omni is used mostly for commercial purposes now. I see a lot of Omnis used as taxis too. Also, it has a good demand in rural market.
Quote:
Originally Posted by GKMahajan View Post
I agree.

Adding to that - I see a lot of these used for school children!

Girish Mahajan
Adding on to that. The parcel / courier / small cargo delivery industry uses Omni extensively. This vehicle can be easily modified to create a large cargo volume and that is it's advantage. Also the doors open parallel to body, resulting unhindered movement in/out of vehicle.
Sree73 is offline   (1) Thanks
Old 10th September 2016, 06:48   #66
BHPian
 
Sree73's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Location: Bangalore
Posts: 584
Thanked: 659 Times
Default Re: August 2016 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by jpcoolguy View Post

I must admit that I started this purely on the back of Innova Crysta's astonishing sales numbers and how much revenue Toyota must be earning from Innova alone.
Wonderful analysis. This really gives much insight into the scenario.

But, there is another angle to it. The excise duty. If we reduce the excise duty from the 75 percentile, that will give a little more accurate figure of how much the company earning from a brand.

For example, Innova which attracts 30% of excise, (A whopping 5,55,000 based on the 75 percentile value), the net price/vehicle is 12.95 Lakhs.

For the case of DZire, the excise is only 12.5% and net price/vehicle comes to 6.3 Lakhs.

So, the revenue from the brand for these two (minus excise) looks as follows.

Innova - 10656.6 Crores
D-Zire - 9932.6 Crores.

Which are not much apart. Maruti, which sells most of the cars in 12.5% excise duty range has a higher advantage of the net margin on vehicles.

Any thoughts on this aspect?

Last edited by Sree73 : 10th September 2016 at 06:50.
Sree73 is offline   (4) Thanks
Old 10th September 2016, 07:40   #67
BHPian
 
Arjun Reddy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: Bangalore
Posts: 688
Thanked: 732 Times
Default

Good analysis. The ex showroom price is normally inclusive of VAT. In Karnataka that is around 14.5%. I about the Crysta a couple of months ago the vat that was paid was close to around 2.3 lakhs. The ex showroom was 19.80 lakhs. The road tax is then added on to the ex showroom price.
Ideally you should use some kind of average to reduce the VAT and excise duties.
Nevertheless it is time spent well on the spreadsheet. Though the revenues for the companies will decrease by reducing the VAT and excise duties the pecking order is unlikely to change. Well done and thanks.
Arjun Reddy is offline  
Old 10th September 2016, 07:50   #68
Senior - BHPian
 
romeomidhun's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Chennai
Posts: 2,536
Thanked: 1,702 Times
Default Re: August 2016 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sree73 View Post

But, there is another angle to it. The excise duty. If we reduce the excise duty from the 75 percentile, that will give a little more accurate figure of how much the company earning from a brand.

For example, Innova which attracts 30% of excise, (A whopping 5,55,000 based on the 75 percentile value), the net price/vehicle is 12.95 Lakhs.

For the case of DZire, the excise is only 12.5% and net price/vehicle comes to 6.3 Lakhs.

So, the revenue from the brand for these two (minus excise) looks as follows.

Innova - 10656.6 Crores
D-Zire - 9932.6 Crores.
Your point is valid, but calculation is wrong.

Excise duty is to be calculated on the base price and not on the ex-showroom price.

For example, in innova's case:

Base price + excise value = 18.2lakh
Roughly, 14lakh + 4.2lakh (30% of base price) = 18.2lakh

But of all the ways, it is better to rank them based on the profit they are making.

Last edited by romeomidhun : 10th September 2016 at 08:05.
romeomidhun is offline   (3) Thanks
Old 10th September 2016, 08:45   #69
Senior - BHPian
 
romeomidhun's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Chennai
Posts: 2,536
Thanked: 1,702 Times
Default Re: August 2016 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by romeomidhun View Post
But of all the ways, it is better to rank them based on the profit they are making.
On a second thought, I find I am wrong here. The success should not be measured on how much greedy you are. The current method of number of units should be the measure of success - an indication of how many hearts you have won.
romeomidhun is offline   (2) Thanks
Old 10th September 2016, 22:37   #70
BHPian
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Location: Chennai
Posts: 154
Thanked: 298 Times
Default Re: August 2016 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hayek View Post
Would be worthwhile if you publish the entire table beyond just the Top 25 models.
Here you go -

August 2016 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis-all-cars-revenue.png

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hayek View Post
Among the Germans, Mercedes and Audi sell 950 and 850 cars a month. Assuming an average price of Rs. 40 lakhs (probably an underestimate), Mercedes sells Rs. 380 cr and Audi Rs. 340 cr

In short Mercedes may be the largest selling German brand (above VW), and Audi sells almost as much as its parent. And VW group with ~ 4.7% revenue market share ranks ahead of Ford and Tata.
Exactly - Mercedes & Audi, Probably BMW too would be selling more then what VW would be selling - in terms of revenue. Unfortunately, the model level sales details for the luxury brands are not available in public domain, which could have incorporated in the total calculations.
jpcoolguy is online now   (3) Thanks
Old 11th September 2016, 20:48   #71
BHPian
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Location: Chennai
Posts: 154
Thanked: 298 Times
Default Re: August 2016 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sree73 View Post
But, there is another angle to it. The excise duty. If we reduce the excise duty from the 75 percentile, that will give a little more accurate figure of how much the company earning from a brand.
Thanks for the info - I missed that point.

Quote:
For example, Innova which attracts 30% of excise, (A whopping 5,55,000 based on the 75 percentile value), the net price/vehicle is 12.95 Lakhs.

For the case of DZire, the excise is only 12.5% and net price/vehicle comes to 6.3 Lakhs.

So, the revenue from the brand for these two (minus excise) looks as follows.

Innova - 10656.6 Crores
D-Zire - 9932.6 Crores.
You meant 1065.66 Cr & 993.26 Cr right?

Also, like @romeomidhun said above, the excise duty is already part of Ex-showroom price, so the calculation should be Factory price + Excise duty = Ex-Showroom price.

To calculate that, we can divide the current 75 Percentile amount with the (Excise % / 100) value.

For example, in case of Innova the new price will then be

1,850,000 / 1.3 = 1,423,076

And the revenue would be 1,171 Cr.

In case of Dzire, the new price will be

720,000 / 1.125 = 640,000

And the revenue would be 1,009 Cr - Innova still lead by more than 150 Cr which is a pretty good amount.

But, Creta loses out more now - new price is 1,380,000 / 1.3 = 1,061,538 and the revenue is just 897 Cr.

Quote:
Any thoughts on this aspect?
This is interesting, let me try to incorporate this calculation and post the results.
jpcoolguy is online now   (2) Thanks
Old 12th September 2016, 06:25   #72
BHPian
 
Sree73's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Location: Bangalore
Posts: 584
Thanked: 659 Times
Default Re: August 2016 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by romeomidhun View Post
Your point is valid, but calculation is wrong.

Excise duty is to be calculated on the base price and not on the ex-showroom price.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jpcoolguy View Post
You meant 1065.66 Cr & 993.26 Cr right?

Also, like @romeomidhun said above, the excise duty is already part of Ex-showroom price, so the calculation should be Factory price + Excise duty = Ex-Showroom price.
My bad. Yes, both of you are right. Also, the sales figures are because of the misplaced decimal point. Thanks for correcting.
Sree73 is offline  
Old 12th September 2016, 10:16   #73
BHPian
 
saion666's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: WB-06/TS-07
Posts: 284
Thanked: 244 Times
Default Re: August 2016 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by GKMahajan View Post
I agree.

Adding to that - I see a lot of these used for school children!
I know a certain family which has been buying Omnis from the time it was introduced in 1984. They just buy a new Omni every 5 years!!!

The reasons:
1> Primary- It can squeeze into narrow lanes(we have many such alleys in north Calcutta) where even a Ritz or a Swift cannot squeeze in!!
2> The oldies with arthritis need to spread their legs while seated. Its only possible in an omni.
3> It's damn cheap to buy and maintain and abuse friendly at the hands of the driver.
4> The max speed in the part of the city where this Omni spends its life is 40KMPH(that too on rare occasions)

They also have a second car but they hate it. Since they have to take the Omni to reach the garage where it's kept.

Last edited by saion666 : 12th September 2016 at 10:26.
saion666 is offline   (4) Thanks
Old 12th September 2016, 10:24   #74
BHPian
 
GKMahajan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: Pune/Mumbai
Posts: 536
Thanked: 692 Times
Default Re: August 2016 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by saion666 View Post
I know a certain family which has been buying Omnis from the time it was introduced in 1984. They just buy a new Omni every 5 years!!!

The reasons:
1> Primary- It can squeeze into narrow lanes(we have many such alleys in north Calcutta) where even a Ritz or a Swift cannot squeeze in!!
2> The oldies with arthritis need to spread their legs while seated. Its only possible in an omni.
3> It's damn cheap to buy and maintain and abuse friendly at the hands of the driver.
4> The max speed in the part of the city where this Omni spends its life is 40KMPH(that too on rare occasions)

They also have a second car but they hate it. Since they have to take the Omni to reach the garage where it's kept.
Dear saion666,

That is very interesting.

Given a choice my wife still prefers an Omni! After our OmniE we have been through Honda City, Honda Jazz, WagonR and now just bought Scorpio - and still her favorite is the OmniE!!

One of the main reasons is the road visibility and the second is the incredible turning radius!

Regards,

Girish Mahajan
GKMahajan is offline   (2) Thanks
Old 12th September 2016, 16:53   #75
Senior - BHPian
 
AutoIndian's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: PCMC, Pune-MH14
Posts: 3,073
Thanked: 3,729 Times
Default Re: August 2016 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by ObsessedByFIAT View Post
Dream run for Bolero has almost come to an end. A utility vehicle which did healthy, consistent numbers in the past are now on a free fall. Is this the beginning of a era for the Bolero? The Under 4m one?
Quote:
Originally Posted by DriveOnceMore View Post
Mahindra, what happened to Bolero?
I am 200% sure that customers of Bolero are 'the customers' of Bolero they won't look for other alternatives.
Vitara Brezza / Duster / Ecosport can never be an alternative to utilitarian Bolero.
Something must have been wrong in the rural / commercial market with Bolero.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SPARKled View Post
Mahindra is definitely staring at the wrong end of the barrel with the continued Bolero slide and KUV-TUV duo struggling.
For all of you wondering the reason behind the slide in Bolero numbers, here is the news.

Courtesy MotorOctane:

Quote:
The Bolero Power+ (Plus) has been launched for INR 7.2 lakhs (on-road, Navi Mumbai). The seats have been improved with better cushioning and this makes it a strong case for itself. Also, voice command feature has trickled down from the existing Mahindra products even into its best-selling SUV. There is no difference in the space offered on this SUV.

This is where a major change has happened. The 1.5-litre engine is used on the Bolero, which produces 70bhp and 195Nm of torque. This engine is called as the mHawk D70. The same engine that is used on the TUV300 and the Nuvosport. It has been detuned for better efficiency. This new engine is more powerful (on paper) and the company claims it to have better performance too. It comes with a five-speed manual transmission only. This is a three-cylinder engine as well. There won’t be any other major changes in it. Mahindra has downsized its massive Bolero engine and it is still at par in performance with the older engine.
Detailed news over here ---> https://motoroctane.com/mahindra-bol...-price-mileage
AutoIndian is offline   (1) Thanks
Closed Thread


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
August 2010 - Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis GTO The Indian Car Scene 138 1st October 2010 13:45
August 2009 Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis GTO The Indian Car Scene 100 5th October 2009 14:52


All times are GMT +5.5. The time now is 02:32.

Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Team-BHP.com
Proudly powered by E2E Networks