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Old 8th October 2016, 02:58   #1
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Default Revenue calculation of cars sold in India - How many $$$ each model brings to its maker

I have done the Ranking calculation based on the Revenue, like last month (see the link to the posts).

http://www.team-bhp.com/forum/indian...ml#post4053690 (August 2016 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis)

http://www.team-bhp.com/forum/indian...ml#post4055332 (August 2016 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis)

Methodology:
Calculation of Revenue for each of the cars, based on the 75th Percentile of all the variants of the Ex-Showroom price minus the Excise duty.

Since, the excise duty is already part of Ex-showroom price, so the calculation should be Factory price + Excise duty = Ex-Showroom price. To calculate that, we can divide the current 75 Percentile amount of Ex-Showroom price with the (Excise % / 100) value.

I have used the Avg. Ex-Showroom Price from Carwale.com (instead of Delhi) for all the cars and for all the variants, in order to calculate the 75th Percentile value.

In the below images, I have also given the Price of Base Variant, Top Variant and their Median and 75th Percentile Price and the Final Price along with the Excise Duty %, for easy understanding. The revenues are then calculated by multiplying the number of units with the Final Price to get the total revenue generated by the car.

Please note that these are just some approximate values and the actual revenues for each car may vary which only the Manufacturers would know. This exercise is solely to find out how the Cars and OEMs will be ranked and whether the actual volumes will convert in to revenues.

Also for some of the cars, there was a confusion in Excise % since one of the Petrol/Diesel versions might fall into some other duty bracket, for which I have taken a median value of them. This may not distort the figures much, but there might be some discrepancy.


Top 25 Cars based on Revenue (calculated based on 75th Percentile of the Avg. Ex-Showroom Price, with Excise Duty % calculation included):
Revenue calculation of cars sold in India - How many $$$ each model brings to its maker-top-25-cars-revenue-sep-16.png

1. This time Innova loses the top spot to Dzire and Creta falls to 5th place.
2. Maruti Suzuki dominates the Revenue rank too (like the Volume rank) with 6 places in the Top-10.
3. Hyundai has 3 cars in Top-10 and Toyota has Innova in 2nd spot.
4. Only Kwid moved out of Top-10 of the Volume ranking, replaced by the Innova.
5. Based on Top-25 Volume ranking, Omni, Eon, Indica and Amaze are moved out of Top-25 while XUV500, TUV300, BR-V and S-Cross have moved in to Top-25 Revenue ranking.
6. Based on the revenue, Ciaz and City are almost close to each other.


Top 25 Cars based on Sales Volume (and their corresponding Revenue rank):
Revenue calculation of cars sold in India - How many $$$ each model brings to its maker-top-25-cars-volume-sep-16.png

OEM's Volume Market Share Vs Revenue Market Share:
Name:  OEM Market Share  Sep 16.png
Views: 10263
Size:  17.8 KB

1. Maruti Suzuki's market share in terms of Revenue is in the range of 42%, while it is almost 50% in terms of Volume. This is due to their volumes in entry level segment.
2. While considering the Revenue Market Share, Toyota has the major % increase when compared to the Volume Market Share - their % increase is in the range of 3.5-3.75%. This is due to their volumes in the higher segment cars like Innova, Corolla, Camry. Once the new Fortuner gets launched, this might even shoot up more.
3. Renault, Tata & Datsun are the manufacturers other than Maruti to see a fall in terms of Revenue Market Share compared to the Volume Market Share - as expected.

P.S.: Please note the revenues for the 3 Germans, JLR, Volvo, Porsche and other Luxury car makers are not included, who may have more revenue market share when compared to their minimal volume market share. For example, Mercedes Benz's revenue might be close to VW's revenue or may be more than that and this might have some impact in the actual revenue calculations. But, we do not have the individual numbers of the Luxury cars to do the calculation.


Full Chart for your perusal:
Revenue calculation of cars sold in India - How many $$$ each model brings to its maker-all-cars-revenue-sep-16.png

Last edited by SDP : 10th October 2016 at 14:21. Reason: Minor sentence correction
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Old 9th October 2016, 16:50   #2
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Default Re: Revenue calculation of cars sold in India - How many $$$ each model brings to its maker

Thanks for sharing this awesome post, Jpcoolguy! Moving your post to an independent thread. Will be added to the homepage tomorrow .
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Old 10th October 2016, 11:27   #3
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Default Re: Revenue calculation of cars sold in India - How many $$$ each model brings to its maker

Good and interesting post. I believe these are approximations of gross revenue by model. I don't know if it is possible to know the net revenue per unit that a company earns, i.e., cost of production - the price to the dealer.
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Old 10th October 2016, 12:59   #4
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Default Re: Revenue calculation of cars sold in India - How many $$$ each model brings to its maker

@jpcoolguy: Amazing analysis. Well deserved 5-star thread.

The premiumization attempted by Maruti can be clearly seen from the figures.
In August, they had 38.86% revenue market share by garnering 46.91% sales market share. (Crudely calculating, 38.86/46.91 to determine the ratio of value derived per unit of sale).
In September, riding on 42% revenue market share by capturing 49.5% sales market share, they boosted their top-line tremendously by launching and keeping the focus on premium products.

With this analysis, potential car dealers can determine which company's dealership to take.
Had I had the money, I would've gone for Toyota/Hyundai for sheer benefits earned on direct sales (with minimum manpower to attend to the low volumes) and Maruti/Hyundai for their servicing revenue.
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Old 10th October 2016, 13:42   #5
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Default Re: Revenue calculation of cars sold in India - How many $$$ each model brings to its maker

Quote:
Originally Posted by turbospooler View Post
@jpcoolguy: Amazing analysis. Well deserved 5-star thread.

Had I had the money, I would've gone for Toyota/Hyundai for sheer benefits earned on direct sales (with minimum manpower to attend to the low volumes) and Maruti/Hyundai for their servicing revenue.
You put it better what I intended to in my earlier post. The slight disadvantage of this is that a drop in volumes would have more impact on the overall revenues.
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Old 12th October 2016, 09:18   #6
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Default Re: Revenue calculation of cars sold in India - How many $$$ each model brings to its maker

That is a very interesting data, Innova at No.2 spot and how the Sales x Revenue can change for similar models.

Similarly the profitability model could also shuffle the ranks hugely, where premium mass models could easily be listed on Top 10.

The data for full year will be hugely appreciated.
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Old 12th October 2016, 11:20   #7
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Default Re: Revenue calculation of cars sold in India - How many $$$ each model brings to its maker

Quote:
Originally Posted by vamsi.kona View Post
Good and interesting post. I believe these are approximations of gross revenue by model. I don't know if it is possible to know the net revenue per unit that a company earns, i.e., cost of production - the price to the dealer.
Yes, these are approx. values as you rightly said. There is no way to get the exact revenue per model/unit unless the Manufacturers disclose these data in public domain. This exercise is to find out which models are more profitable to the manufacturers (with some approximations) and was mainly prompted by the Innova Crysta's sales success, even after pricing it sky high.

Quote:
Originally Posted by turbospooler View Post
@jpcoolguy: Amazing analysis. Well deserved 5-star thread.

The premiumization attempted by Maruti can be clearly seen from the figures.
In August, they had 38.86% revenue market share by garnering 46.91% sales market share. (Crudely calculating, 38.86/46.91 to determine the ratio of value derived per unit of sale).
In September, riding on 42% revenue market share by capturing 49.5% sales market share, they boosted their top-line tremendously by launching and keeping the focus on premium products.

With this analysis, potential car dealers can determine which company's dealership to take.
Had I had the money, I would've gone for Toyota/Hyundai for sheer benefits earned on direct sales (with minimum manpower to attend to the low volumes) and Maruti/Hyundai for their servicing revenue.
Rightly said. Toyota is the only company whose difference between Revenue Share and Volume Share is more than 3% and this is without the new Fortuner's numbers. For Aug '16, it was more than 4% and I am pretty sure that with the launch of new Fortuner, this difference might go above 5%. None of the other manufacturers have even more than 2%, the closest being M&M and Hyundai with 1.98% and 1.88%.

This also explains why Toyota is least bothered about the entry level segments when they can fetch more money per car with Innova/Fortuner/Corolla/Camry.
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Old 10th November 2016, 00:50   #8
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Default Re: Revenue calculation of cars sold in India - How many $$$ each model brings to its maker

Revenue Calculation data for last month sales - Oct '16.

Top 25 Cars based on Revenue (calculated based on 75th Percentile of the Avg. Ex-Showroom Price, with Excise Duty % calculation included):
Revenue calculation of cars sold in India - How many $$$ each model brings to its maker-top-25-cars-revenue-oct-16.png

1. Dzire retains its top spot but loses about 100 Cr.

2. This time around Creta and Innova swapped places - Creta in 2nd and Innova in 5th position.

3. Surprisingly, there are 3 entries in Top 5 from Hyundai, with i20 and i10 in 3rd and 4th spot respectively.

4. Swift comes in at 6th position, but do note that the cars from 3rd - 6th position are stacked very closely in terms of revenue and the positions may be interchanged based on the variants and fuel type being sold for a particular model. This exercise is just to approximate a position and should be taken at face value.

5. Brezza, Baleno, Wagon-R and Alto - all from Maruti Suzuki rounded off the Top 10 positions.

6. This time City clearly leads over Ciaz in terms of revenue, btw, Scorpio was managed to squeeze in between these two.

7. Omni (13 / 32), Eon (18 / 27), Eeco (19 / 28), and Redi-Go (25 / 41) from the Top-25 based on sales volume have moved out of the Top-25 chart based on sales revenue. They are replaced by XUV500 (31 / 17), TUV300 (28 / 23), Ameo (26 / 24) and Zest (27 / 25) - note that the first value within brackets denotes the Volume rank and the second value denotes the corresponding Revenue rank.

8. Compared to the last month's (Sep '16) Top-25 revenue ranking, Eeco (28 / 22), BR-V (39 / 23) and S-Cross (30 / 24) and they are replaced by Amaze (22 / 26), Ameo (24 / 43) and Zest (25 / 35) - note that the first value within brackets denotes Oct '16 Revenue rank and the second value denotes the Sep '16 rank.


Top 25 Cars based on Sales Volume (and their corresponding Revenue rank):
Revenue calculation of cars sold in India - How many $$$ each model brings to its maker-top-25-cars-volume-oct-16.png


OEM's Volume Market Share Vs Revenue Market Share:
Name:  OEM Market Share  Oct 16.png
Views: 607
Size:  23.9 KB

1. Maruti Suzuki's revenue market share is almost 7% lesser than their volume market share which is in line with the expected trend, because of their huge volumes in small car segment. But their revenue shrunk by more than 500 Cr. this month which is more than the total revenue of Volkswagen.

2. As expected, Toyota's revenue market share jumped by more than 3.3% compared to their volume market share due to their volumes in Innova, Fortuner, Corolla, Camry.

3. M&M is the other OEM whose revenue market share increased by over 2% followed by Honda's 1.5%. But this time around Hyundai's difference shrunk due to the increase in volume of Eon which leads to lower revenue.

4. Renault, Tata & Datsun are the manufacturers other than Maruti to see a fall in terms of Revenue Market Share compared to the Volume Market Share - as expected.


P.S.: Please note the revenues for the 3 Germans, JLR, Volvo, Porsche and other Luxury car makers are not included, who may have more revenue market share when compared to their minimal volume market share. For example, Mercedes Benz's revenue might be close to VW's revenue or may be more than that and this might have some impact in the actual revenue calculations. But, we do not have the individual numbers of the Luxury cars to do the calculation.

Full Chart for your perusal:
Revenue calculation of cars sold in India - How many $$$ each model brings to its maker-all-cars-revenue-oct-16.png
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Old 8th December 2016, 14:55   #9
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Default Re: Revenue calculation of cars sold in India - How many $$$ each model brings to its maker

Revenue Calculation data for last month sales - Nov '16.

Top 25 Cars based on Revenue (calculated based on 75th Percentile of the Avg. Ex-Showroom Price, with Excise Duty % calculation included):
Revenue calculation of cars sold in India - How many $$$ each model brings to its maker-top-25-cars-revenue-nov-16.png

1. Dzire continues to hold the top spot, but major change is in the Top-5 spots which have all been occupied by Maruti Suzuki. Swift, Alto, Brezza and Baleno are in the ranks 2-5 respectively. Maruti have one more car - Wagon-R in the 8th position thus occupying 6 positions in the Top-10.

2. Hyundai again has 3 cars in Top-10 but slipped in the rankings and at the bottom of the table. Creta at 6th, i20 at 7th and i10 rounds of the tenth position.

3. The only other manufacturer in the Top-10 is the Toyota Innova sitting at 9th position, what a fall it has been, considering that Innova was at 2nd position during Sep '16.

4. Unsurprisingly Fortuner is just outside of Top-10 at 12th position (Ciaz is at 11th), but it is the one which have major jump in the Revenue rank compared to its Sales rank, which is 31.

5. Maruti is on a roll this month, all the cars from Maruti Suzuki stable, except S-Cross (at 26), Omni (at 28) and Gypsy (at 77), present in the Top-25 positions of the Revenue rankings.

6. Ecosport is the highest ranking (at 15) car for Ford, Scorpio (at 16) for M&M, Kwid (at 18) for Renault, Tiago (at 19) for Tata, City (at 20) for Honda, Polo (at 30) for VW, Redi-Go (at 41) for Datsun, Rapid (at 42) for Skoda, Enjoy (at 44) for Chevrolet, Micra (at 54) for Nissan, Punto (at 64) for Fiat.

7. Interesting, this time only Omni (from 12 to 28) from the Top-25 based on sales volume have moved out of the Top-25 chart based on sales revenue, which is being replaced by Fortuner whose Sales rank was 31, but moved to 12th in Revenue rank.

8. There have been lot of changes in Top-25 positions when compared to last month (Oct '16). XUV 500 (29 / 17), Amaze (31 / 22), TUV 300 (36 / 23), Ameo (32 / 24) and Zest (27 / 25) have been moved out of Top-25 and they are replaced by Fortuner (12 / 34), Etios (22 / 29), Eon (23 / 27), Eeco (24 / 28) and Jazz (25 / 26) - note that the first value within brackets denotes Nov '16 Revenue rank and the second value denotes the Oct '16 rank.


Top 25 Cars based on Sales Volume (and their corresponding Revenue rank):
Revenue calculation of cars sold in India - How many $$$ each model brings to its maker-top-25-cars-volume-nov-16.png


OEM's Volume Market Share Vs Revenue Market Share:
Name:  OEM Market Share  Nov 16.png
Views: 213
Size:  23.9 KB

1. Maruti Suzuki's revenue market share is 8% lesser than their volume market share, but they have increased their revenue share to a whopping 44.75% share compared to 37.63% last month.

2. As expected, Toyota's revenue market share jumped by 4.8% compared to their volume market share, due to their HUGE volumes in Fortuner and Innova.

3. M&M lost their 3rd place to Toyota in terms of Revenue (while they have lost the 3rd place to Tata in terms of Volume).

4. Renault, Tata & Datsun are the manufacturers other than Maruti to see a fall in terms of Revenue Market Share compared to the Volume Market Share - as expected, due to their volume in small cars.

5. Except Maruti, Toyota, Ford and Chevrolet, all the other manufacturers has seen a decrease in their Revenue Market Share, but in terms of absolute revenue Chevrolet lost approx. 16 Cr. compared to last month.

P.S.: Please note the revenues for the 3 Germans, JLR, Volvo, Porsche and other Luxury car makers are not included, who may have more revenue market share when compared to their minimal volume market share. For example, Mercedes Benz's revenue might be close to VW's revenue or may be more than that and this might have some impact in the actual revenue calculations. But, we do not have the individual numbers of the Luxury cars to do the calculation.

Full Chart for your perusal:
Revenue calculation of cars sold in India - How many $$$ each model brings to its maker-all-cars-revenue-nov-16.png

Last edited by GTO : 8th December 2016 at 17:48. Reason: Guess you meant Nov, not Oct :)
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