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Old 29th November 2016, 20:51   #151
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Default Re: Effect of Rs. 500 / 1000 note ban on the Indian car industry

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Originally Posted by volkman10 View Post
Renault and Nissan factories in Oragadam is stopping production of cars on the third shift.
Which means the waiting period on Kwid will come down now or they have enough inventory to be delivered for this year end? Because I remember that Renault have ramped up the production of Kwid by adding the third shift, to meet the high demand of the car, earlier this year.
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Old 29th November 2016, 21:46   #152
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Default Re: Effect of Rs. 500 / 1000 note ban on the Indian car industry

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Originally Posted by jpcoolguy View Post
Which means the waiting period on Kwid will come down now or they have enough inventory to be delivered for this year end? Because I remember that Renault have ramped up the production of Kwid by adding the third shift, to meet the high demand of the car, earlier this year.
My father in law is about to get delivery of the Kwid AMT within a week of booking. Yes there are cancellations, so waiting period for many cars have come down. Similar stories have been shared by Bhpians for other models too.

Last edited by 400notout : 29th November 2016 at 21:47. Reason: formatting
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Old 30th November 2016, 09:06   #153
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Default Re: Effect of Rs. 500 / 1000 note ban on the Indian car industry

Used car market sees 40% drop in demand.

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According to auto financiers and organized used car sellers, demand has dropped by anywhere between 30% and 40% after the announcement. The used car business is largely unorganised and only 15-20% vehicles are financed
Positives:
Quote:
with the cash component disappearing overnight, demonetisation has opened up a huge opportunity for the organised channels in the market. This is a very positive thing for online players as used car transactions become organised and transparent
Link

Last edited by volkman10 : 30th November 2016 at 09:07.
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Old 30th November 2016, 10:03   #154
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Default Re: Effect of Rs. 500 / 1000 note ban on the Indian car industry

Reactions still seem very mixed. I thought used car market would take a huge beating due to this but it surely didn't seem like it as I saw 2 Innova's get sold last week. It could have been with the old notes for sure as I heard lot of them were still accepting it.

The new luxury car market is surely struggling. I'm now getting calls from Mercedes and BMW even without any inquiry while previously it was the opposite.
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Old 30th November 2016, 10:41   #155
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Default Re: Effect of Rs. 500 / 1000 note ban on the Indian car industry

This is the same article, I guess, which has appeared in today's Times of India, Pune edition.

ToI Pune - Used Car - 30112016.pdf

70% of the deals are estimated to be on cash basis! So, there should be a huge dent in the sales numbers!!

BTW, any guesses as to the used car market size (in money terms)? Will it be larger than the new car sales figures (numbers and value terms)?
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Old 30th November 2016, 12:11   #156
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Default Re: Effect of Rs. 500 / 1000 note ban on the Indian car industry

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Originally Posted by 400notout View Post
Believe it or not the economy is heading for a slowdown. It makes more sense to avoid superficial expenses . Buying makes sense now if the car is urgently required, upgrades and second cars would definitely undergo reconsideration for some.
Yes, and no. The resale prices are also impacted, so if you are selling a car to buy the next one the problem remains. I as a habit do no rely on the sale of the old car, in order to buy a new one, but do require some reasonable hope about the resale in decent time.
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Old 30th November 2016, 16:52   #157
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Default Re: Effect of Rs. 500 / 1000 note ban on the Indian car industry

Analyst's' perspective on demonetization effect on Auto industry,

The demonetisation of 500/1,000-rupee notes would impact sales of luxury cars and not sales of other automobiles -- two wheelers, small cars and commercial vehicles.

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According to Fitch, the demonetisation of 500/1,000-rupee notes would impact sales of luxury cars and not sales of other automobiles -- two wheelers, small cars and commercial vehicles.
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Undeclared income is less often used to buy small cars, and two-wheeled and commercial vehicles, so sales of these are likely to stabilise quickly once the liquidity situation in the economy is restored in the near future.
The rollout of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) in its current form would be largely price neutral because the proposed rates are in line with the existing level of taxes.
Many companies, including Maruti Suzuki, Toyota and Royal Enfield, have announced plans to expand capacity, which will increase capex

Link

Last edited by volkman10 : 30th November 2016 at 16:54.
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Old 1st December 2016, 09:36   #158
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Default Re: Effect of Rs. 500 / 1000 note ban on the Indian car industry

Demonetization effect - what to expect in November 2016 sales ?

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Retail growth in auto sales for the month of November is likely to be sharply lower for all companies due to currency demonetisation and post festive demand moderation
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Old 1st December 2016, 09:55   #159
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Default Re: Effect of Rs. 500 / 1000 note ban on the Indian car industry

Maruti just reported 1.35 lacs sales in Nov 2016 (as reported by CNBC TV18). That's a 12.2% increase (1.2 Lacs in Nov 2015). Quite strange huh?

Last edited by smartcat : 1st December 2016 at 09:57.
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Old 1st December 2016, 10:39   #160
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Default Re: Effect of Rs. 500 / 1000 note ban on the Indian car industry

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Maruti just reported 1.35 lacs sales in Nov 2016 (as reported by CNBC TV18). That's a 12.2% increase (1.2 Lacs in Nov 2015). Quite strange huh?
Yes Maruti Suzuki beats forecasts of analysts and as stated by its Chairman, will not have any immediate effect in slowdown due to its strong demand and its segment that they cater to.

Maruti Suzuki will be envied by most other Auto companies as it posts a domestic growth of 14% in November

Luxury segment will show a skewed figure and will be the most effected,
Quote:
Brakes on Kolkata luxury car sales, not a single booking this Nov
Link

Last edited by volkman10 : 1st December 2016 at 10:51.
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Old 1st December 2016, 15:47   #161
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Default Re: Effect of Rs. 500 / 1000 note ban on the Indian car industry

Quote:
Originally Posted by smartcat View Post
Maruti just reported 1.35 lacs sales in Nov 2016 (as reported by CNBC TV18). That's a 12.2% increase (1.2 Lacs in Nov 2015). Quite strange huh?
Quote:
Originally Posted by volkman10 View Post
Yes Maruti Suzuki beats forecasts of analysts and as stated by its Chairman, will not have any immediate effect in slowdown due to its strong demand and its segment that they cater to.
But, in the article given in the below link - it is mentioned that the total sales of Maruti Suzuki is 1,26,220 units as against the 1,10,599 units in the same month last year - which translates to 14.2% increase Y-o-Y.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...w/55719515.cms

I think the 1.35 L figure includes the number of units that are exported as well.
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Old 1st December 2016, 15:56   #162
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Default Re: Effect of Rs. 500 / 1000 note ban on the Indian car industry

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Originally Posted by jpcoolguy View Post
I think the 1.35 L figure includes the number of units that are exported as well.
Yes it includes exports.
These are numbers dispatched to the dealer, so this month may not really show the effect of demonetization. Since most dealers across country have reported reduced footfalls by approx 30 percent, the next month dispatch to dealers is likely to come down and that IMO will be the real indicator of the consequence of this national exercise.
So we should wait and see Dec Auto numbers to gauge the effect of demonetization on auto sales.

Last edited by nkghai : 1st December 2016 at 15:59. Reason: typo
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Old 1st December 2016, 16:03   #163
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Default Re: Effect of Rs. 500 / 1000 note ban on the Indian car industry

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Originally Posted by nkghai View Post
So we should wait and see Dec Auto numbers to gauge the effect of demonetization on auto sales.
Not necessarily an increase for most auto manufacturers ( Maruti ,Toyota, VW have strong bookings for their new launches and will not see the demonetization effect).

See Mahindra Nov. sales figures, which is an indication of the effect.Expect Honda too to follow the same path.

Last edited by volkman10 : 1st December 2016 at 16:04.
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Old 1st December 2016, 16:57   #164
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Default Re: Effect of Rs. 500 / 1000 note ban on the Indian car industry

Wholesale figures for demonetisation-hit November 2016 (sourced from WhatsApp):

Maruti-Suzuki = 1,26,220 units
Hyundai = ~38,000 units
Mahindra = 13,217 units
Tata = 12,736 units
Renault = ~9604 units
Toyota = 11,309 units
Honda = 8,016 units
Ford = 6,876 units
Volkswagen = 4,014 units
Nissan = 3,975 units
GM = 2,808 units

Last edited by Rudra Sen : 1st December 2016 at 19:49. Reason: Added Ford numbers, corrected Toyota numbers.
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Old 1st December 2016, 17:29   #165
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Default Re: Effect of Rs. 500 / 1000 note ban on the Indian car industry

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Nissan = 3,975 units
Does this list include export figures and / or Datsun's? Monthly sales figures show that Nissan has been selling in 3 digits in the recent past.
I think the November 2016 sales report will be most awaited!
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