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Old 1st December 2016, 17:33   #166
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Default Re: Effect of Rs. 500 / 1000 note ban on the Indian car industry

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Originally Posted by hybridpetrol View Post
Does this list include export figures and / or Datsun's? Monthly sales figures show that Nissan has been selling in 3 digits in the recent past.
Including Datsun numbers.

I'd say in the ratio of 1:2, in favour of Datsun.
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Old 1st December 2016, 17:54   #167
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Default Re: Effect of Rs. 500 / 1000 note ban on the Indian car industry

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Originally Posted by RavenAvi View Post

Tata = 12,736 units
Thanks for the list, RavenAvi!

I'm not sure, but I guess Tata may have managed to step on the podium after a really, really long time!

Or they may have missed a top three slot by just a whisker.

This is because Mahindra's declared numbers include small CV-based vans (such as the Maxximo Passenger & Supro), while the equivalent Tatas (Ace Magic etc.) are classified as CVs.

The final numbers based on the sum of individual models will make this situation clearer.

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Originally Posted by RSR View Post

The demonetisation process is going to shake up the monthly sales chart beginning with the month of November 2016. There is going to be a lot of up & down movement in the mid field pack.

I, for one, would not be surprised in the least if Tata grab this opportunity with both hands and proudly step on to the podium in the month of November or December (2016) itself!

If they can pull it off, what a fabulous comeback it would be!

Last edited by RSR : 1st December 2016 at 17:59.
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Old 1st December 2016, 22:49   #168
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Default Re: Effect of Rs. 500 / 1000 note ban on the Indian car industry

Guys,

The wholesale numbers don't say anything. A factory running at full speed doesn't come to a stop overnight. These cars will basically pile up on dealer lots. Expect the next 2 - 3 months to get ugly. Some brands have seen as much as a 60% drop in footfalls at their showrooms.

Last edited by GTO : 1st December 2016 at 22:50.
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Old 1st December 2016, 23:21   #169
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Default Re: Effect of Rs. 500 / 1000 note ban on the Indian car industry

It took a while for me to figure out the numbers.


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Originally Posted by GTO View Post

The wholesale numbers don't say anything. A factory running at full speed doesn't come to a stop overnight. These cars will basically pile up on dealer lots. Expect the next 2 - 3 months to get ugly. Some brands have seen as much as a 60% drop in footfalls at their showrooms.
Two issues:

1) Manufacturers will not burden already troubled dealerships with more despatches if there is no demand.
2) Dealerships don't have enough space for all that inventory.

Now let's look at RavenAvi's numbers again -

Quote:
Originally Posted by RavenAvi View Post
Wholesale figures for demonetisation-hit November 2016 (sourced from WhatsApp):

Maruti-Suzuki = 1,26,220 units
Hyundai = ~38,000 units
Mahindra = 13,217 units
Tata = 12,736 units
Renault = ~9604 units
Toyota = 11,309 units
Honda = 8,016 units
Ford = 6,876 units
Volkswagen = 4,014 units
Nissan = 3,975 units
GM = 2,808 units
and compare it with Oct 2016 numbers -

Quote:
Maruti-Suzuki = 123,684 units
Hyundai = 49,816 units
Mahindra = 23,181 units
Tata = 16,412 units
Renault = 12,409 units
Toyota = 11,651 units
Honda = 15,567 units
Ford = 7,508 units
Volkswagen = 5,534 units
GM = 3,001 units
Nissan = 1406 units
Note that manufacturers like Honda (down 45%) and Mahindra (down 40%) have taken a MASSIVE hit. But Maruti and Toyota numbers look normal because these two companies enjoy 6 month waiting list (Brezza, Innova Crysta, Baleno, Fortuner etc) for certain models. Renault and Tata have done relatively better, because they have Kwid and Tiago deliveries to make.

And that's why it looks like they have emerged unscathed - but it is basically clearance of "waiting list". Smaller volume players like Nissan, GM might have passed on the inventory burden to dealerships though.

Last edited by smartcat : 1st December 2016 at 23:33.
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Old 1st December 2016, 23:59   #170
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Default Re: Effect of Rs. 500 / 1000 note ban on the Indian car industry

Quote:
Originally Posted by GTO View Post
Guys,
The wholesale numbers don't say anything. A factory running at full speed doesn't come to a stop overnight. These cars will basically pile up on dealer lots. Expect the next 2 - 3 months to get ugly. Some brands have seen as much as a 60% drop in footfalls at their showrooms.
GTO, Curious to know why you think it would get ugly after 2-3 months. For the cars bought by the common man, I would imagine he/she would go through a bank loan to finance their purchase. Are the banks refusing to give out loans, because they are busy exchanging cash?
Or, are you suggesting that a lot of cars are still bought as cash purchases? Even if that is true, isn't the worst of the demonetization behind us?
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Old 2nd December 2016, 03:20   #171
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Default Re: Effect of Rs. 500 / 1000 note ban on the Indian car industry

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Originally Posted by prasadee View Post
For the cars bought by the common man, I would imagine he/she would go through a bank loan to finance their purchase. Are the banks refusing to give out loans, because they are busy exchanging cash?
Or, are you suggesting that a lot of cars are still bought as cash purchases? Even if that is true, isn't the worst of the demonetization behind us?
Here's why I also feel car sales will slump in the coming few months:

1) Yes, banks are busy handling deposits and other important tasks. This probably would mean longer loan processing times.

2) Considering banks are getting huge deposits, interest rates on loans are supposed to fall. People will wait for them to fall before going ahead with the purchase.

3) It is the year end. Many avoid buying cars at year end for the fear of lower resale later. Waiting for a few months would get one a 2017 car. But, increasing inventories would mean 2017 cars would take longer to come to the market.

4) Many businesses do have come amount of dealings with black money. Now such businesses have been hit overnight by demonetisation and would have lost a good amount of money. Also, many in our country store savings in cash form. They have lost a good amount of money too. Buying a car can't be on the anvil when one has lost money and a good amount at that.

5) Yes, our country still has a lot of car sales in cash. And no, it is not restricted to cheaper cars. It is more rampant in luxury car segment wherein the car is often used with temporary registration or a fake number in smaller cities of the country and then later sold as unregistered car. The original buyer gets to use the car and pay for it with black money. The final buyer also pays a good chunk in black and enjoys the depreciated price.

6) In used car sales, more often than not, there is a certain cash component which is a part of the deal. Many times the deal is completely done with black money. Now such deals are in deep trouble and so are the dealers indulging in them.

All these factors combined will have a huge impact on sale of new and used vehicles.
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Old 2nd December 2016, 08:41   #172
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Default Re: Effect of Rs. 500 / 1000 note ban on the Indian car industry

From today's Times Of India. A kind of re-post.

Excerpts:
Quote:
Maruti, which has a substantial wait-list on models such as Baleno hatchback and Brezza mini SUV, reported a 14% growth in November wholesale deliveries that are despatched to dealerships. However, many retailers are reporting a severe contraction in demand as most enquiries are not leading to sales.
Quote:
Abdul Majeed, a partner at Price Waterhouse, said the negative impact may last for at least a quarter. "Demonetisation will have a significant negative impact at least in the next two-to-three months across the board in the automotive sector, especially two wheelers, SUVs, luxury vehicles, commercial vehicles."
Link
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Old 2nd December 2016, 09:03   #173
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Default Re: Effect of Rs. 500 / 1000 note ban on the Indian car industry

The bottom-line is simple, we spend based not on what's there to be spent but what's there that needn't be spent but can be saved/invested.

The demonetisation took away the saved/reserve part completely. Let me be the first one to say that "cash" is/was never the villain. In an era where India was struggling to come to grips with its under-developed economy with not enough jobs and not enough income for those jobs, cash was the driving factor that carried the blue-collar or builders of the nation through. Even today if one might pass a thela(cart)-lunch joint, or even something bigger like a standing-only tiffin centre, there is no option to pay by card. That is how 75% of the country eats, when outside. Yes somewhere down the line, the practices of storing away small notes for a rainy day stuck with people and they took it to another level altogether with figures that contained over 6/7/8 zeros and that's where hoarding started (I still believe 5 zeros is perfectly fine).

Now that the "rainy-day" funds are drained, the confidence of buying will not be there, anymore. I know for a fact that luxury boutiques have been hit hard and given their high-rentals they're losing by the day. Cars will suffer a similar fate with them having established a large infrastructure, people, capital etc for a growth-oriented future and not the opposite. Suffice to say that even 6 months of poor sales will level out the profits earned in the past 2 years.

I for one welcome the move, not because I don't love cars but its been played, buying cars have become like buying candy and large sedans taxis have choked the roads beyond recognition. About time a correction takes place so that these NOx & CO2 harbingers are kept in control. Its not about price correction or deep discounts, for any positive change the sales shouldn't happen in the first place. For those who have the funds, buying should really not be a problem whether today or 10 years later.
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Old 2nd December 2016, 10:21   #174
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Default Re: Effect of Rs. 500 / 1000 note ban on the Indian car industry

Demonetization effect - Mahindra's answer to it! Others are likely to follow this trait soon.

M&M offering discount of up to Rs 2.71 lakh to push retail sales.

The biggest discount is coming on KUV100 as the sales of the compact SUV has been dwindling for quite a few months ( this might not be the subject effect!). The costliest SUV from Mahindra – Ssangyong Rexton has discount up to Rs 2.71 lakh.

Quote:
Mahindra dealers currently have an inventory of over 40 days and retail of the company has gone down heavily as its most of the vehicles are sold in the rural and semi urban areas.
Quote:
Mahindra’s largest selling model Scorpio has up to Rs 50,000 discount depending on the geography and variants. While Bolero which has more customers in the rural areas has up to Rs 67,000 discount on offer. Mahindra’s premium SUV XUV500 and KUV100 have up to Rs 89,000 and up to Rs 73,000 discounts
Quote:
The other passenger vehicle manufacturers such as Maruti Suzuki and Hyundai Motor has even higher inventories. They may also adopt discount in the coming months
Link

Last edited by volkman10 : 2nd December 2016 at 10:23.
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Old 2nd December 2016, 15:04   #175
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Default Re: Effect of Rs. 500 / 1000 note ban on the Indian car industry

Maruti offering Rs. 10,000 to Rs. 50,000 discount on various models (offer valid for December 2016 only):

Up to Rs. 18,000 discount on Swift
Up to Rs. 20,000 discount on Ciaz
Up to Rs. 25,000 discount on dZire

Source: CNBC TV18

Last edited by smartcat : 2nd December 2016 at 15:06.
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Old 2nd December 2016, 17:37   #176
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Default Re: Effect of Rs. 500 / 1000 note ban on the Indian car industry

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Originally Posted by smartcat View Post
But Maruti and Toyota numbers look normal because these two companies enjoy 6 month waiting list (Brezza, Innova Crysta, Baleno, Fortuner etc) for certain models. Renault and Tata have done relatively better, because they have Kwid and Tiago deliveries to make.

And that's why it looks like they have emerged unscathed - but it is basically clearance of "waiting list".
May be true in others' case, but not in the case of Maruti - especially Baleno and Brezza. The production of these cars are in full capacity (approximately 15K and 10K respectively for local and export markets combined), and they can't increase it further suddenly. So, Maruti has produced other models as usual in the expectation that retail sales will pick up soon, and dumped those cars to the dealers, IMO.
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Old 2nd December 2016, 17:45   #177
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Default Re: Effect of Rs. 500 / 1000 note ban on the Indian car industry

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Originally Posted by romeomidhun View Post
May be true in others' case, but not in the case of Maruti - especially Baleno and Brezza. The production of these cars are in full capacity (approximately 15K and 10K respectively for local and export markets combined), and they can't increase it further suddenly. So, Maruti has produced other models as usual in the expectation that retail sales will pick up soon, and dumped those cars to the dealers, IMO.
Not saying Maruti magically produced 20,000 Balenos instead of 15,000. What I'm implying is that since all Marutis had a 1 to 6 month waiting list (depending on the model), its despatches were not affected like others. If some customers cancelled, there were others willing to take delivery.

And now that there is no waiting list anymore, Maruti is offering huge discounts. If there was no demand drop for Maruti, they would not have offered this discount. And if it was manufacturers forcing dealers to hold inventory, then you wouldn't have seen steep drops in despatches of Hyundai, Honda, Tata, Mahindra and Renault. Manufacturers who have models with a waiting list (Renault, Hyundai, Tata) has seen better despatches than manufacturers without a significant waiting list (Honda, Mahindra)

Last edited by smartcat : 2nd December 2016 at 17:58.
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Old 4th December 2016, 10:53   #178
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Default Re: Effect of Rs. 500 / 1000 note ban on the Indian car industry

MSIL is affected for sure. Guess whom I got a call from a few minutes back? Maruti' Delhi office. No, I hadn't enquired for a Maruti in the recent past. And they rang the landline at home.

The person started with the question whether I still have my old Maruti which was bought new in 2007. And they wanted me to know that Brezza is one amazing new vehicle from them to buy.

Looks like they have dusted their old customer database to clear through the inventory piled up with their dealers. Interestingly, he didn't ask about our 2011 Swift at all. So, they are digging deep now. I didn't want to waste time so didn't engage further, but for sure this is a good time to buy a new car.

Maruti being super aggressive have started this exercise early. Let's see how the market is in the coming months.
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Old 4th December 2016, 14:53   #179
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Default Re: Effect of Rs. 500 / 1000 note ban on the Indian car industry

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Originally Posted by deetjohn View Post
...And they wanted me to know that Brezza is one amazing new vehicle from them to buy.
Reason may be their to-be-commissioned Gujarat plant. Once the production starts there in January, they will have an additional capacity of 20K units per month, which will eat the Baleno and Brezza backlog very soon. Due to the piled up inventory, other models also may get a push like this.

Last edited by romeomidhun : 4th December 2016 at 14:54.
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Old 6th December 2016, 08:52   #180
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Default Re: Effect of Rs. 500 / 1000 note ban on the Indian car industry

Car companies continue to offer discounts as 2016 stock pile up.

Quote:
Car companies, in the meantime, have announced steep discounts of 10-20% in December as they try to clear inventory of 15-30 days owing to weak demand caused by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s currency swap move.
Auto companies announce an increase in prices for 2017 - Toyota Kirloskar has already announced and Honda city is likely to follow from January 2017. Other companies are evaluating the same.

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