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Old 13th May 2017, 10:20   #1
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Default Car rationing? Govt may introduce lottery system for buying petrol-diesel vehicles

A tiny piece of news published in a Kannada Daily and ET caught my attention. The papers say that NITI Aayog, headed by the Prime Minister, has recommended the implementation of lottery system for purchase of petrol and diesel cars.

This is to discourage the use of fossil fuels for motor transport - in line with the Government's desire to have a complete fleet of electric vehicles by 2030. Purported to save a whopping $60 Billion in fuel charges and reduce carbon emission by 10,000,000 tonnes, the policy, if implemented, can have two major ramifications:

1. Death of traditional automobile companies in India, unless of course they do a Tesla.

2. Revival of licence raj and the creation of a scenario akin to the 80s when getting hold of a Fiat or a Maruti or even a scooter was a herculean task.

China has, in its efforts to ease congestion and reduce pollution, already implemented the lottery system for allotment of cars.

Related Thread (Power minister wants India to become 100% e-vehicle nation by 2030).
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Old 13th May 2017, 10:27   #2
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Default re: Car rationing? Govt may introduce lottery system for buying petrol-diesel vehicles

Unless and until proper infrastructure for clean electric generation, strong back up of charging centers is made and combined efforts of government with auto manufacturers to ensure the increase in efficiency of batteries/range and make the car more practical, I find these statements and steps useless. It's like designing a high rise without pillars for support.
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Old 13th May 2017, 10:37   #3
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Default re: Car rationing? Govt may introduce lottery system for buying petrol-diesel vehicles

They are not putting more effort into electrification, providing good infrastructure (how much fuel is wasted in bad traffic, bad roads).
But time and again they jump to bad conclusions (both govt and judiciary) and decisions. We might as well become a dictatorial state where stupid people in decision making can have a field day.
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Old 13th May 2017, 10:55   #4
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Default re: Car rationing? Govt may introduce lottery system for buying petrol-diesel vehicles

Quote:
Originally Posted by dailydriver View Post
A tiny piece of news published in a Kannada Daily and ET caught my attention. The papers say that NITI Aayog, headed by the Prime Minister, has recommended the implementation of lottery system for purchase of petrol and diesel cars.

This is to discourage the use of fossil fuels for motor transport - in line with the Government's desire to have a complete fleet of electric vehicles by 2030. Purported to save a whopping $60 Billion in fuel charges and reduce carbon emission by 10,000,000 tonnes, the policy, if implemented, can have two major ramifications:

1. Death of traditional automobile companies in India, unless of course they do a Tesla.

2. Revival of licence raj and the creation of a scenario akin to the 80s when getting hold of a Fiat or a Maruti or even a scooter was a herculean task.

China has, in its efforts to ease congestion and reduce pollution, already implemented the lottery system for allotment of cars.

Related Thread (Power minister wants India to become 100% e-vehicle nation by 2030).
More than 80% of the country's population is toiling with poor connectivity, even as most of the urban and semi urban population is facing hell issues in daily commutes due to inadequate, inefficient, unreliable and ridiculously chaotic public transport system. The only respite being for people who can afford self owned vehicles for their commuting needs. There are several areas in our country where public transport is non-existent.

But then the solution should be to regulate the growth of population, channelize and decentralize the power centres, so that the population is not accumulated to specific areas but evenly distributed across the nation. Encourage people to take up public transport by improving on efficiency, reliability and punctuality. More so the need is also to provide an array of options for the people to choose from, based on their affordability, and not just forcing everyone to squeeze into the Gandhi class alone. The government should think beyond tax collection and vote bank politics, but start encouraging participation from private entities as well to provide public transport.

This new law / legislation or as they claim as a “Solution”, if implemented, will only add up to the chaos and disturb the everyday trade and normal life of the citizens; but only to realize later that there until was an utter miscalculation (something similar to demonetization).

This is a classic example of applying ointment to the forehead whilst the pain is in the limbs.
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Old 13th May 2017, 12:04   #5
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Default re: Car rationing? Govt may introduce lottery system for buying petrol-diesel vehicles

Quote:
Originally Posted by dailydriver View Post
The papers say that NITI Aayog, headed by the Prime Minister, has recommended the implementation of lottery system for purchase of petrol and diesel cars.

This is to discourage the use of fossil fuels for motor transport - in line with the Government's desire to have a complete fleet of electric vehicles by 2030. Purported to save a whopping $60 Billion in fuel charges and reduce carbon emission by 10,000,000 tonnes, the policy, if implemented, can have two major ramifications
Anything I say now will affect either right wingers or the left wingers, and each will jump down the throat with what bothers them about my theories. Nevertheless I need to say it.

Pollution studies are never completely with basis, at their best they are guesses thrown about on what is the exact percentage of carbon emissions from cars - coke and ash plants, production of any product, thermal energy, construction industry etc all involve burning, heating, diesel inputs, and production of tremendous amounts of NOx and carbon monoxide/dioxide.

Here're a few shocking facts from respected press houses (for whatever they are worth):

Quote:
The carbon footprint of making a car is immensely complex. Ores have to be dug out of the ground and the metals extracted. These have to be turned into parts. Other components have to be brought together: rubber tyres, plastic dashboards, paint, and so on. All of this involves transporting things around the world. The whole lot then has to be assembled, and every stage in the process requires energy. The companies that make cars have offices and other infrastructure with their own carbon footprints, which we need to somehow allocate proportionately to the cars that are made.

The best we can do is use so-called input-output analysis to break up the known total emissions of the world or a country into different industries and sectors, in the process taking account of how each industry consumes the goods and services of all the others. If we do this, and then divide by the total emissions of the auto industry by the total amount of money spent on new cars, we reach a footprint of 720kg CO2e per £1000 spent.
Buying a new car (D segment size) itself creates 17 tonnes of CO2 as per the above article, the fuel or hybrid part comes later. It thus goes without saying that when one buys a car its important that its driven as much and as long as possible to dilute its manufacturing ecological damage by the number of years.

Quote:
The Toyota Prius, the flagship car for the environmentally conscious, is the source of some of the worst pollution in North America, and takes more combined energy to produce than a Hummer, says the Recorder.

Consider:

*The nickel contained in the Prius' battery is mined and smelted at a plant in Ontario that has caused so much environmental damage to the surrounding environment that NASA has used the 'dead zone' around the plant to test moon rovers.
*Dubbed the Superstack, the factory has spread sulfur dioxide across northern Ontario, becoming every environmentalist's nightmare.
*Acid rain around the area was so bad it destroyed all the plants and the soil slid down off the hillside, according to Canadian Greenpeace energy-coordinator David Martin.
*After leaving the plant, the nickel travels to Europe, China, Japan and United States, a hardly environmentally sound round the world trip for a single battery.
The above source also tells of the toll it takes to make a battery for a battery operated car, granted that certain changes have been made to the technologies and that sodium based batteries are as well on the way (though they will be much, much heavier than lithium ion thus adversely affecting the economy and increasing the weight of the car).

For now, lets not believe in everything that the press in India says.. we all know that bureaucrats do not have the best of intentions towards us in the end. Yes the rage worldwide is that of electric/hybrid and self-driven vehicles, self driving programs bombed heavily since they ran into accidents but nevertheless there seems to be some motive for pushing us that way. Scientifically this feels more like alternative pollution than putting an end to pollution on a whole.

Bottomline : Creation of ANYTHING leads to pollution be it a Nataraj lead pencil or an eco-friendly car, use what you own for as long as possible and encourage the used market so that demand for newer vehicles fall down, this is about the only proven method as for now, to fight the grip of smoke and poisonous gases that are around us and affecting us silently, everyday as we speak. For the sake of the future I hope people put away their differences and just unite for the goal of restoring the ecosystem.

EDIT: Reference links :https://www.theguardian.com/environm...tprint-new-car

http://www.ncpa.org/sub/dpd/index.php?Article_ID=14304

Last edited by dark.knight : 13th May 2017 at 12:05.
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Old 13th May 2017, 12:16   #6
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Default re: Car rationing? Govt may introduce lottery system for buying petrol-diesel vehicles

There they go blabbing again. Sometimes I wonder what the people in government are smoking to come up with these Tughlaqi ideas. Collect road tax and toll and wish for roads to repair themselves. The frequent traffic jams to clear themselves out. Or the pollution to go down by itself. They don't want to do anything just issue edicts from their imperial thrones.
Now we know the meaning of phrase "God's own country" , as everything here is 'Rambharose'
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Old 13th May 2017, 13:05   #7
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Default re: Car rationing? Govt may introduce lottery system for buying petrol-diesel vehicles

This is NO joke. I would not be surprised if this becomes a reality. And, certain people would still support this move. But, at the same time, they would be able to bribe the right people to "win" the lottery.

I would appreciate it if people don't label this as right-wing or left-wing. Following is merely a summary of recent events.

Step 1 (Theater): Endlessly talk about development, make grandiose promises, rant about national security, pose with international celebrities on Twitter

Step 2 (Strategy): Adopt divide & rule. Secretly pass laws to control every aspect of your everyday life. Keep the public imagination and attention occupied with insignificant "news"

Step 3 (Implementation): Control your food (cow vigilantes), your money(destruction of paper cash), your body (mandatory Aaadhar), and now your mobility (car lottery)

Step 4 (Establish Status Quo): Label all forms of dissent as anti-national
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Old 13th May 2017, 14:02   #8
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Default re: Car rationing? Govt may introduce lottery system for buying petrol-diesel vehicles

This is obviously not the answer. Especially not in every city. The correct way to do this would be to first fix the public transport system and then carry out this exercise.

But the issue right now is that the public transport system is not enough, even in the best of the cities. I live in right in the heart of delhi, which easily has one of the best public transport systems of any metropolitan area in the country. I have 2 metro lines at a driving distance of barely 5 mins, but only now after almost 15 years of metro is a line coming close enough that i can get there on foot in this scorching heat. Prior to that,i needed a car, an auto or a bus(if it wasn't full enough already) .
But that's not all, even with the extensive network, the place that i want to go to, isn't always close enough to a metro station, i need to take a cab/auto from the nearest one. Which defeats the purpose entirely, and more commonly i just end up taking an Uber for the entire trip, especially with the heat these days. But Uber is not public transport, its a private car at the end of the day. Me going there in a car just for me is creating the same pollution as my car.
And Restricting the sale and registration of vehicles just in delhi, is probably going to be useless since most of us can anyway register in another state. I welcome any measure to curb pollution, but it needs to make sense.

This is simply another Demonetisation like exercise which will cause more agony than good.
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Old 13th May 2017, 14:26   #9
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Default re: Car rationing? Govt may introduce lottery system for buying petrol-diesel vehicles

2030 isn't long enough to implement something like this. We still live in an age where there are massive power cuts and load shedding for hours outside the big metropolis'. The infrastructure required to pull off something like this is immense. Not to mention it would require subsidising electric vehicle imports from the likes of Tesla, perhaps having them manufacture/assemble here.

Lottery system too sounds okay in theory, in the real world you'd be hardpressed to find someone willing to plonk 50+ lacs in a Mercedes showroom failing to "win the lottery". It will only increase bribery in these sections.
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Old 13th May 2017, 18:42   #10
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Default re: Car rationing? Govt may introduce lottery system for buying petrol-diesel vehicles

Quote:
Originally Posted by ashwin489 View Post
This is NO joke. I would not be surprised if this becomes a reality. And, certain people would still support this move. But, at the same time, they would be able to bribe the right people to "win" the lottery.
That is very astute observation. It seems far-fetched but may certainly become a reality going by the current scenario. Whenever there is big policy failure, we are bombarded with stupid propaganda. What Sunny Leone or Aamir Khan says has got bigger newsworthiness than matters of national importance.

Last edited by GTO : 15th May 2017 at 13:18. Reason: Please quote ONLY the relevant bits of a post. Quoting a full, long post inconveniences our mobile readers.
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Old 13th May 2017, 23:11   #11
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Default re: Car rationing? Govt may introduce lottery system for buying petrol-diesel vehicles

Get ready to walk or bicycle to work in India, ladies and gentlemen! No more long cross-country drives either. We are preparing to move back to the 19th century so far as transportation is concerned.

Your 10-/15-year-old diesel / petrol vehicle will be scrapped, and you will need to stand in queue and subject yourself to a lottery to buy a new car. You could buy yourself an electric car to commute shorter distances, but there will not be enough electricity or charging stations to recharge those batteries...

...until one day, the government or its pollution-controlling agencies will wake up to the fact that the carbon footprint left by an electric vehicle is much larger than one that runs on fossil fuels (http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/08/tesla...surcharge.html).
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Old 13th May 2017, 23:45   #12
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Default re: Car rationing? Govt may introduce lottery system for buying petrol-diesel vehicles

Quote:
Originally Posted by dailydriver View Post
A tiny piece of news published in a Kannada Daily and ET caught my attention. The papers say that NITI Aayog, headed by the Prime Minister, has recommended the implementation of lottery system for purchase of petrol and diesel cars.

This is to discourage the use of fossil fuels for motor transport - in line with the Government's desire to have a complete fleet of electric vehicles by 2030. Purported to save a whopping $60 Billion in fuel charges and reduce carbon emission by 10,000,000 tonnes, the policy, if implemented, can have two major ramifications:

1. Death of traditional automobile companies in India, unless of course they do a Tesla.

2. Revival of licence raj and the creation of a scenario akin to the 80s when getting hold of a Fiat or a Maruti or even a scooter was a herculean task.

China has, in its efforts to ease congestion and reduce pollution, already implemented the lottery system for allotment of cars.

Related Thread (Power minister wants India to become 100% e-vehicle nation by 2030).
Its easier said than done. The target for e-vehicles is though getting a rapid push and already some top functionaries have said that by 2030, the percentage of e-vehicles will be much higher in India, than at present. However, the fossil fuel powered motor vehicles cannot be eliminated so soon by 2030 at all, though 2030 is far away, by another 13 years to be precise.

Mr Piyush Goyal, the Power Minister at a convention in Vienna yesterday, said that e-vehicles will be given a push by his Ministries. To start with, official cars in his Ministries viz. Power, New and Renewable Energy Sources ,Coal and Mines will be electric powered and the change will start immediately. The Mahindra Reva is the only electric car available as of now in India, unless someone thinks of importing some other makes. So its anyone's guess that they should go for Revas. Will the senior officials be seen in Revas ? My doubts having closely worked with many of them. It is not clear how this target as stated by the Minister will be fulfilled for his own Ministries ?

Coming to the NITI Aayog, very recently a Member had recommended that agricultural income above a threshold should be taxed. And this statement was hooted as anti- Indian Constitution by the Finance Minister, the very next day. The Member was silenced immediately. The NITI Aayog Members may speak out their minds, but the final decisions that are taken under the aegis of the Chairman, Vice- Chairman and CEO are holistic and not controversial.

Then thoughts about rationing and lottery system for cars, are some things that are unthinkable and could well lead to a wild goose chase. They are not even able to implement the alternate day, odd-even number car plying scheme in the capital ! Our laws and our systems at this stage do not permit any rationing or lottery system, which are figments of imaginations of the fourth estate, that may be based on some leaks from the corridors of the NITI Aayog, through some of their connections at the lower levels.

The SIAM was crying foul but has now attuned itself to bringing in the BS VI norms by 2020. How can the govt take such steps like rationing and lottery system when the SIAM member companies are investing thousands of crores for expanded capacities and for newer models as well as for their R & D activities for fossil fuel powred motor vehicles ? No doubt, they are doing some homework for e- motor vehicles too, but these are at the rudimentary stages.

No doubt, we will have to enter an era of e-vehicles in the forseeable future, but the transition will be time consuming and within realistic time schedules.

Last edited by anjan_c2007 : 13th May 2017 at 23:51.
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Old 15th May 2017, 10:34   #13
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Default re: Car rationing? Govt may introduce lottery system for buying petrol-diesel vehicles

Below is the complete statement in the report, part of which has been picked up by media houses:

Quote:
Limiting registration of conventional vehicles through public lotteries and complementing that with preferential registration for EVs, similar to that in China, could support uptake
This recommendation is part of the section on non-fiscal incentives aimed at achieving the target and I honestly feel we shouldn't be reading much into this one among hundreds of recommendations in the 134 page report.

The recommendation is based on reference of similar approach adopted in China some years ago. A simple search reveals such policies have only led to people bypassing system by adopting tricks. It would be foolish to adopt something which hasn't particularly succeeded from where the idea has been referenced.

However, the report itself looks pretty good in terms of recommendations such as promoting ride sharing through regulations, massively encouraging EVs and attempting to dissociate the prestige derived from ownership of vehicles.
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Old 15th May 2017, 11:45   #14
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Default re: Car rationing? Govt may introduce lottery system for buying petrol-diesel vehicles

@ksameer1234, thank you very much for the pointer towards the complete report.

There are two documents, one containing the background factors and the other the actual report. I have attached both here.

A prominent slice of the report has been quoted and explained by D Bhpian RavenAvi here.
Attached Files
File Type: pdf India_Preread_Mobility_Charrette_2017.pdf (5.12 MB, 469 views)
File Type: pdf NITI_RMI_India_Report_2017.pdf (5.38 MB, 500 views)
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Old 15th May 2017, 11:57   #15
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Default re: Car rationing? Govt may introduce lottery system for buying petrol-diesel vehicles

1. Niti Aayog cannot make any laws. It can only suggest or recommend. The lawmakers sit elsewhere.
2. Suggesting far-fetched or "wild" ideas are encouraged by all good governances since the beginning of human civilisation. Two examples are the UK coastal Radar coverage suggested by Robert Watson-Watt in 1941 and the voyage of Columbus. OTOH, regimes that suppressed such ideas are considered wholeheartedly as draconian. An example is the forced suicide of Galileo for his discoveries.
3. The capabilities of EVs will drastically improve the day when a hybrid battery with (graphane...?) supercapacitors will become a reality, and this could happen in a decade. Such a device will neither be a pure battery nor a capacitor.

My humble viewpoints, after reading all the posts in this thread so far...

Last edited by sandeepmdas : 15th May 2017 at 12:00.
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