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Old 12th July 2017, 14:14   #31
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Default Re: June 2017 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

June is a pre-GST blip. No arguing that. Case in point is Toyota.
July will mostly be a post-GST blip with what I expect will be higher than average dispatches.

I think an average of May to August might give a better overall picture.
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Old 12th July 2017, 15:59   #32
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Default Re: June 2017 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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Originally Posted by kpzen View Post
While we assume that June sales impact was primarily due to GST.

Here are some important facts that caught my attention

1. Comparing Jun'16 to Jun'17 Sales, Only Maruti and Honda have achieved positive growth.
...
3. In 2016 and 2017, May to Jun month the sales has been down for most manufacturers except Honda and Tata. Surprising !!
Apart from waiting for GST, here in the South, this period also marks the start of Aashadam in AP, Telangana and Aadi Masam in Tamil Nadu, which is considered inauspicious and people put off major buys like cars, houses. So you may see an impact on sales in at least these 3 states.

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Originally Posted by OrangeCar View Post
Honda seems to be unaffected by pre-GST sales drops
Honda had made a good GST price protection offer. Under this offer whatever amount the Ex-showroom price would go down after GST, the same would be refunded to the buyer.
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Old 12th July 2017, 16:14   #33
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Default Re: June 2017 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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Originally Posted by ashis89 View Post
Seeing the Toyota sales numbers, I was surprised to say the least. Took me some to figure out that GST roll-out has played it role here. I am still wondering about all those buyers who got their cars in June, knowing (or ignorant) about the price drop one month later. I am not sure if all the manufacturers/dealers have given discounts to the tune of post-GST price cut. If they did, then that would have been some serious loss to them.

Clearance discounts by Chevrolet has brought in some numbers for them.
Maybe Toyota was fair enough to let customer know about the impending cut in their prices due to GST?
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Old 12th July 2017, 16:42   #34
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Default Re: June 2017 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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Maybe Toyota was fair enough to let customer know about the impending cut in their prices due to GST?
Not at all. Toyota was fair to it's dealers to a certain extent and mostly, did this to cut down on their own loss/hassles. Regarding customers, I know at least 4 cases in my friends and family circle who were interested in the Crysta or Fortuner. The dealers were insisting to take immediate delivery last month (June) and gave excuses of waiting periods, price rise if the delivery is postponed to July or later.
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Old 12th July 2017, 18:28   #35
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Default Re: June 2017 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Being a long time Chevrolet Cruze owner it is nice to see that in June'17 Cruze sold 200+ units thus topping its segment!!(Corolla Elantra Octavia Jetta).

GM is in its death bed in India still they were able to convince buyers to go for the Cruze that too in good numbers.That says a lot about the product it has always been VFM when compared to its competitors.

Last edited by sameer sultan : 12th July 2017 at 18:29. Reason: Spell Check
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Old 12th July 2017, 20:48   #36
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Default Re: June 2017 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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Originally Posted by sameer sultan View Post
Being a long time Chevrolet Cruze owner it is nice to see that in June'17 Cruze sold 200+ units thus topping its segment!!(Corolla Elantra Octavia Jetta).

GM is in its death bed in India still they were able to convince buyers to go for the Cruze that too in good numbers.That says a lot about the product it has always been VFM when compared to its competitors.
I think this has more to do with stock clearance and heavy discounts. I don't think its got anything to do with the car or the merits of the car.
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Old 12th July 2017, 21:17   #37
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Default Re: June 2017 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

July and onwards should see a major fall in the Ciaz and Ertiga numbers. Maruti was till now making a fool of the government by taking excise and other tax benefits of more than a lac for just mild hybrids. There was hardly any major fuel saving, but maruti gained a lot of market share from City and Verna by pricing its products lower because of tax benefits. I think mobilio suffered majorly because of this too. It was doing very good numbers before Maruti came up with SHVS and reduced prices of the Ertiga. Lodgy sales should pick up too now that the prices of Ertiga have increased. It seems value for money now when compared to Ertiga. Better build, more space.
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Old 12th July 2017, 22:37   #38
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Default Re: June 2017 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

I am curious to see the sales number of the luxury car categories between April, May and June to understand the impact.

If the sales of the fortuner can crash so much, I am assuming it may be even bigger on higher sticker price cars !
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Old 13th July 2017, 11:48   #39
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Default Re: June 2017 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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July and onwards should see a major fall in the Ciaz and Ertiga numbers. Maruti was till now making a fool of the government by taking excise and other tax benefits of more than a lac for just mild hybrids. There was hardly any major fuel saving, but maruti gained a lot of market share from City and Verna by pricing its products lower because of tax benefits. I think mobilio suffered majorly because of this too. It was doing very good numbers before Maruti came up with SHVS and reduced prices of the Ertiga. Lodgy sales should pick up too now that the prices of Ertiga have increased. It seems value for money now when compared to Ertiga. Better build, more space.
Not really mate. Ciaz and Ertiga are highly successful cars and price increase is not much. Also Maruti is very smart, if they see drop in sales, they will start giving discounts. As far as Ertiga goes, they have almost no competition in that segment. Mobilio is dead, Lodgy has failed, Enjoy is shutdown already. No competition at all plus Ertiga is a excellent product. Its very VFM even with new price. For Ciaz, main threat is City only, others are way behind. See example of Sunny, its now priced very well and has no major issue, still it sales only 1/10 of Ciaz or even less.

Also remember one main thing, prices are affected for only diesel models and not the petrol's which also account good numbers for both cars. I am sure MSIL will adjust prices very well and make sure market is not lost.
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Old 13th July 2017, 13:09   #40
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Default Re: June 2017 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

As per earlier reports the Diesel Ciaz accounted for 70 to 80% of Ciaz sales.The price increase for Ciaz and Ertiga have been upto rs 1.5 Lac depending on models as indicated in the GST price effect thread. Moreover the Verna launch is just around the corner so I definitely think Ciaz will be on a down trend.
In the Indian market it is tough to revive a dead product. Once the sales fall to bare minimum the price cuts do nothing to revive them. Sunny seems a decade old and now consumers bend towards newer launches.
For the Ertiga Diesel the On Road price for base LDI is 9,63,000 in Delhi whereas for Renault Lodgy it is 8,80,000. This makes a good case for considering the Lodgy. The reliability of the engine is great as I have seen Logans with more than 1.5 Lac on the ODO and still no major issues.
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Old 13th July 2017, 15:39   #41
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Default Re: June 2017 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by feluda86 View Post
Here is an interesting piece of statistics for sales figures ranging from May 2016 to June 2017 for Honda.
Attachment 1656324

Honda for some reason is reluctant to use the full capacities of their plants (currently ~70% + small amount of exports). Curious case of Honda sales in India!
That indicates that they have a supply bottleneck (paintshop or something similar) which they are deliberately not investing to upgrade to full capacity. Honda works on short supplying to dealers (unlike most makes that pump metal into the channel) carefully monitoring moving average statistics to tweak production. Another possibility is some variants of some models lose money - the more they sell of those, the more the loss!

Last edited by Ferruccio : 13th July 2017 at 15:42.
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Old 13th July 2017, 16:19   #42
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Default Re: June 2017 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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Originally Posted by jetti View Post
Honda had made a good GST price protection offer. Under this offer whatever amount the Ex-showroom price would go down after GST, the same would be refunded to the buyer.
Even so, I know quite a few people who put off their purchases, because who can bank on the promises of private companies?
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Old 14th July 2017, 19:28   #43
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Default Re: June 2017 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Maruti Suzuki losing a large chunk of dispatches due to plant shutdown in mid June.
Gst had its impact on other manufacturers. I'm sure s cross will recover in July to its constant 2k figures.
Ciaz losing its crown to Honda city and it'll take a miracle for Maruti to gain back the top most position from city due to extra cess on hybrid vehicles.
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Old 15th July 2017, 13:39   #44
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Default Re: June 2017 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

The Skoda Rapid selling more than the Volkswagen Vento is a big surprise for me in this report, inspite of VW having better network, better reputation and better service network across.

All other figures will change from next month and come back to normal.

The Hyundai Creta has manged to remain in the top 10 right from it's launch now almost for 2 years, inspite of negative perception of it's high cost certainly speaks well for the product and it's reliability. The other success for Hyundai is the Grand i10 which has seen consistent sales since it's launch so also the Elite i20. This trio has managed to keep Hyundai amongst the nos, they really need more products now if they want to increase their market share.

TATA Motors should introduce the 1.3 MJ on the Tigor now, if it intends to take the volumes up. The Zest as it is not selling that much. They also need a better market strategy to push the Hexa nos up otherwise it will only remain a wannabe product, it has the potential to sell.

Maruti Suzuki cars are God's products hence they are so well accepted by the markets, otherwise no one can explain such high volumes of products like Omni or Wagon R in these competitive times.

All are awaiting now to see how FCI handles Jeep as a product, they will have a winner in hands if priced right but unfortunately will be able to back it up with volumes as they do not have the reach.
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Old 17th July 2017, 15:16   #45
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Default Re: June 2017 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Pre-GST month(s) riddle!!

1. Initially there was a hype that small cars would become costlier.
This segment is most price sensitive.
Pre-GST offers.

Still sales went down. Seems Indian buyers very intelligent & informed.

2. Discount plays big, even when you know that a company has shut the operation!

3. Hexa discounted the price along with passing the GST benefit, is now an open secret. Surprisingly, at least on Team BHP, it is one of the most popular 6-7 seater!

4. It appeared many manufacturers didn't pass the complete GST benefit to the customer, including Honda. Any analysis on that? May be something saved for festive season!

5. Even under GST, contrary to popular belief, different places have different prices, of course there are valid reasons for that, but sometimes beyond easy understanding.


Post-GST month(s) surprises in store:

1. Toyota would create a record in July sales (at least for academic purpose)

2. Hexa success/failure would be indicated (if not decided) in coming few months, if now it can't, then never (at least in present setup, before any major overhaul).

3. Stubborn like Honda (BRV) must learn a thing or two from Hexa price reduction, rather than offering huge discounts month after month!

4. Premium segment has become more affordable, would they impact one segment lower cars? I think so. And with Kodiaq a good battle is awaited.

5. Whatever, this festive season would be a real season for the auto-manufacturers and the value-chain.
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