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Old 23rd September 2017, 10:45   #16
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Default Re: Will EVs lead to a slowdown in car sales?

Excellent thread.
While I agree that EVs are the future, autonomous cars are a totally different subject. I would go out of the way here and say that in India autonomous cars will never see the light of the day. Also, why autonomous cars? India has a huge number of people under the age of 30. Uber, ola etc are actually providing employment opportunities - so I don't think we need autonomous cars until we have higher value jobs that can be taken up by everyone (in other words we need both higher skilled jobs as well as higher skilled labor force). Only then does autonomous cars make sense.

What excites me is the electric cars/solar/wind power/reduction of oil imports/ lower fiscal deficit / cleaner environment).
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Old 23rd September 2017, 11:42   #17
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Default Re: Will EVs lead to a slowdown in car sales?

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Originally Posted by sharktale View Post
The sudden boost in EV technology got me thinking :

Will the consumers buy cars as often in the future with EVs, as opposed to the rate now?

The cars could become a mere means to service, rather than a proud possession.

With the impact of autonomous driving and electric vehicles, everyone could lose that personal touch/affection with the cars and its thrill of driving. Due to technology, there would be significant lower accidents/minor incidents, which often compelled someone to buy a vehicle.

With fewer parts, these new vehicles could require less maintenance due to lower wear and tear. The batteries would be available in a leased plan and changed periodically.
Here is what John Crafcik, head of Waymo, the Autonomous driving arm of Google has to say about what you're wondering. He's assuming/hoping that with autonomous driving, more and more people would simply use them as taxis.

Quote:
A related project for Krafcik, the Journal reports, is changing the mindset of the auto industry from units sold to miles driven. He points out that, at average profit margins per vehicle sold, and average miles of usage before the typical vehicle is scrapped, auto manufacturers are earning a mere one cent per mile. Widespread adoption of self-driving technology may be a way to get consumers to spend per mile driven, especially if ride-sharing and vehicle-sharing arrangements explode in popularity.
Source: http://www.investopedia.com/news/how...fdriving-cars/
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Old 23rd September 2017, 11:51   #18
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Default Re: Will EVs lead to a slowdown in car sales?

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Originally Posted by jalajprakash View Post
Here is what John Crafcik, head of Waymo, the Autonomous driving arm of Google has to say about what you're wondering. He's assuming/hoping that with autonomous driving, more and more people would simply use them as taxis.
I was thinking on similar lines. An average car spends it time in the parking 90% of the times. I would prefer a bigger RoI on my second biggest material investment (after a home) if possible.
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Old 23rd September 2017, 11:59   #19
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Default Re: Will EVs lead to a slowdown in car sales?

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I was thinking on similar lines. An average car spends it time in the parking 90% of the times. I would prefer a bigger RoI on my second biggest material investment (after a home) if possible.
I think the title of the thread misled a few people on what your question was. You're talking about autonomous vehicles, which is technology separate from electric vehicles. Yes, EV+autonomous are usually packaged together but they also exist separate from each other. So the real question is "Will autonomous cars lead to a slowdown in sales?"

What I could understand from the article I shared, was that companies in the future might not even actually sell the vehicle to the consumer, instead just release them on the road and then simply charge the customers per mile, which would indeed lead to greater ROI from fewer vehicles. As Krafcik mentioned, currently automakers earn around one cent per mile, and this is the metric he wishes to boost. So a vehicle might not even be an investment you have to make.
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Old 23rd September 2017, 12:52   #20
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Default Re: Will EVs lead to a slowdown in car sales?


The EVs will be a boon to this world in many ways. Though I will surely miss the eargasmic sounds produce by the internal combustion engine, and I totally was bored to death while trying to watch the electric formula car race but all these sentiments stands no where when I look at the change EVs will bring around globally.
1. The best part is that the world will witness a huge economic shift. The dependency on the gulf region for fuel supply will drop drastically (decrease in terrorism funding?) and I think every region on the earth will get equal opportunity to develop and evolve economically as the requirements for EVs, the electric current, can be produce through various renewable resources of energy. India is at par if not ahead with the world standards when it comes to renewable sources of energy like Solar energy. That was the reason behind the recent US rant over development of solar panels in India. The oil trade is done in US $, world pays commission to USA for buying oil for no reason at all.
2. People say that the dumping of batteries will create land and water pollution while the harmful fumes from batteries will cause air pollution. But the pollution from petroleum products is way more harmful when compared to that which will be caused by the batteries. And as the EV technology will evolve we will se better and greener batteries.
3. Like the transition from petroleum to electric power based on batteries, soon maybe in next 3 to 5 decades, say if nothing stupid like a WW3 happens, mankind will definitely be looking at an era where automobiles emitting 0 pollutants is a possibility, technologies like fuel cell are already present.
4. It feels kind of amazing when you imagine that you can generate the power for your car at your home while you are at your office, in case of solar energy. Recharge it overnight and can travel about 500 kilometers without polluting the earth as much, without paying hefty taxes on petroleum fuel. The government will have to come up with some new tax schemes for sure.
5. Honestly speaking, I am not sure if I will be able to own the exotic super cars ever in this life, 95% of the world population won't. So lets be logical, why crave for something that isn't going to happen. We should really support the EV development for a better and greener world that we can give to our future generations. We owe this world to them we don't own it.

Last edited by wrongturn : 23rd September 2017 at 12:56.
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Old 25th September 2017, 14:35   #21
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Default Re: Will EVs lead to a slowdown in car sales?

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Though I do welcome the infusion of the EVs, what we would be losing out is on the range or the distance we can drive. For Eg- I normally drive on vacations (includes driving down to my hometown, Kerala). With an electric car, I am pretty much sure, the journey which took me 2 days is going take 3 to 4 days owing to the limited range. From a tourer's point of view, it's going to be a severe blow.
Definitely not dude. EVs today have the same range as a petrol car does. And this has been a fact since a few years now. What we need in our country is infrastructure. Else it can be used just as a normal car. nothing special.
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Old 25th September 2017, 14:43   #22
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Default Re: Will EVs lead to a slowdown in car sales?

The spike in EV sales will also be largely dependent on how they are positioned. It is important to note that our demographic dividend will peak around 2040. That means manufacturers will have to contend with a massive market ,mainly composed of the aspirational middle class. IF EVs are sold only as an "environment friendly" alternative that will have very low running costs, it is bound to end in a disaster.E.g., the Nano.

On the other hand, if manufacturers can come up with premium offerings(like Tesla) , sales of cars with ICEs is bound to fall.
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Old 25th September 2017, 19:47   #23
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Default Re: Will EVs lead to a slowdown in car sales?

Quote:
Originally Posted by jalajprakash View Post
I think the title of the thread misled a few people on what your question was. You're talking about autonomous vehicles, which is technology separate from electric vehicles. Yes, EV+autonomous are usually packaged together but they also exist separate from each other. So the real question is "Will autonomous cars lead to a slowdown in sales?"
Yes, I had assumed that the EVs and autonomous driving would be hand-in-glove in the future cars. My fault to make an assumption like that, when our Hon'ble Transport Minister is not in the mood for favouring autonomous driving presently.
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Old 26th September 2017, 12:30   #24
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Default Re: Will EVs lead to a slowdown in car sales?

We have been witnessing in the recent years, the increase in Automatic transmission, though many of us claimed automatic transmission would take the pleasure out of driving a car. However, we see that many are happily buying automatic transmission cars, and the percentage is only increasing.

We hated EVs for various reasons such as ugly looks, poor power supply, range issues, inadequate infrastructure to charge outside of homes, huge battery replacement costs, large charging times etc and the list of complaints are endless. Yet, Tesla came out with beautiful cars, with good power and range. One BHPian recently mentioned he would never go back to Mercedes Benz after having driven Tesla! We can see that the days are not far - even in India such good cars are made. With improvement in technology, the price & size of batteries are going to reduce and who knows, we will soon have reasonably good low priced EVs as well.

Add this, to the fact that car penetration in our country is still low, and the interest rates for loans have come down recently. Unless the Government steps in to regulate the number of cars sold, the buying spree is going to continue irrespective of whether the car is fossil fueled or EVs.

In case you meant autonomous cars - we still need a mode of transport, right? Though, if there is no need for a driver, there is no logic in owning a car. With the improvement in road infrastructure and timing accuracy, Uber will be sufficient in the future. Uber is already partnering with different tech & automobile companies to make the most of this AI growth.
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Old 26th September 2017, 13:22   #25
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Default Re: Will EVs lead to a slowdown in car sales?

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Originally Posted by ssambyal1980 View Post
With the advent of EVs the torque and power which the internal combustion engines offer will be definitely missed. But on the brighter side, with the EVs becoming the norm the cities will start breathing easy again as the pollution levels will see drastic fall.
Actually, it's a complete win-win situation!



As far as sales of cars are concerned- I guess it'll continue to grow. Even if you don't want/need one, family pressure/status would force you to!
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Old 27th September 2017, 01:03   #26
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Default Re: Will EVs lead to a slowdown in car sales?

What we need is an India specific electric car with better range than the e2o. The Nissan Leaf which is kind of an affordable electric car outside is 110hp which is hot hatch category for us. I have driven the Leaf and the e2o, and the torque is definitely something to notice even in the e2o. I believe something around 80hp or even less considering this instant torque of electric motors would be quite ideal for us. It has to look good unlike the e2o, preferably a budget sedan (sedan class=luxury here) with atleast 200 km usable range. If this can be achieved around 10-12 lakhs INR, then it can be a good success. We love lower refuelling costs (one big reason why diesels sell despite the premium cost) and hence I think if our Tata, Maruti, Mahindra make something affordable and good looking, electric cars will make a presence here.

As per charging infrastructure, jugaads at paan, tyre shops on the highways will come up as EVs become popular here.

Also once solar becomes more affordable, there will be a lot of solar panels on rooftops and the idea of running a car for partially or fully free will draw us despite the investment. Like LEDs, India will see a solar boom soon I believe.
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Old 27th September 2017, 09:43   #27
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Default Re: Will EVs lead to a slowdown in car sales?

In India - as in many emerging economies - we tend to leapfrog technology. Think of the jump from landlines to smartphones, limited banking network to internet banking etc. There is every likelihood that EV's will be everywhere and within 10 years. To put this in context, in 2007, Gurgaon was fast-growing - Sohna was just a road to nowhere, Goa had an off-season, and Mumbai didn't have a metro (I'm not counting the creaky EMU system). Ola and Uber were not on the scene, and most of our airports were a joke. Things have changed quite a bit, and will continue to do so IMHO. This is not wishful thinking, but based on the political reality that development wins votes.

Will there be enough power available? India is moving fast to develop energy from renewables, with venerable companies investing directly, just Softbank alone has put up $20 billion into this sector. We have the sunlight, the market potential and the land (solar plants, wind farms need space) to generate more than adequate power. For the detail oriented folks - read the full (draft) plan here.
This may sound far-fetched, but in a world where solar power could be a leading source of electricity generation; India is well-placed to be the next Saudi Arabia There is more than enough sunlight and land available.

The next issue is battery technology. Can it keep pace with or even meet current standards of automotive technology? Not yet, but it's catching up faster than we think, at least according to the New York Times. Most countries have chosen to back this technology, and subsidies and tax breaks are forthcoming. In India too, for the reasons outlined above.

While most developed countries promote this technology because of emissions control or climate change fears, in India we can actually expect cost to play a leading role (surprise, surprise!). The power of the Indian consumer to chose quality for price must not be underestimated. This is a very strong market force that will drive manufacturers to produce better cars (for India) at consistently lower purchase and maintenance costs. If you doubt this, look around - it's already started. When did Mahindra & Mahindra start manufacturing the e2o? Why bother buying a startup if you don't believe in the potential of this sector?

Demand very often chases supply. This industry has its' own example, from the history of the automobile. Who really wanted to buy a Ford Model T - but suddenly, everybody wanted one. And to the point of this thread (will EVs force a slowdown in car sales?) - well, EVs are cars too. As for the internal combustion engine, according to The Economist, the ICE is dead.

Last edited by VivOverland : 27th September 2017 at 09:47.
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Old 27th September 2017, 11:34   #28
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Default Re: Will EVs lead to a slowdown in car sales?

Undoubtedly EV is the future of motoring. With EVs becoming more and more affordable, I don't think the sales of cars will witness a downside trend. People in our country love our cars, right from humble 800 to a German marquee. Hence owning a car will not move out of fashion. The real challenge for companies would be. how fast the EV technology develops? Especially the driving range of EVs and the charging infrastructure. Driving range will be the deciding factor for majority of the customers. Very few customers residing in metro cities would have access to a charging point in their parking.

Take Mumbai for example, with so many people parking their cars in open, they automatically get strike off from the list of potential EV buying customers. Same would hold true for people who would be using it in fleet of Uber and Ola. Unless we have (quick) Electric Charging stations replacing the current petrol bunks it will be difficult for people to migrate towards EVs. What to do with a car which you will have difficulty recharging?

In the current form, the batteries used in EVs are good for 10 years and the cost of changing them is exorbitant. Considering the battery replacement cost, people may exchange older car to a newer one. Companies might also prefer this as they would have good chance of reselling.

What scares me is the other side of this change. I came across an article which states that the EVs have 20 moving parts compared to as many as 2,000 in an ICV. This would mean few spares and fewer companies producing these spares. The Automotive OEM suppliers in India would be bracing for a radical shift in the market. Tesla sold 75K+ cars in 2016 without any dealerships. They own the entire Sales and Service network as they can afford to and the cars don't require to visit service centers so often. In India, the dealership business runs on Service component as it is the real revenue driver for them. With reduced servicing frequency and fewer spare parts, the dealership business in India would be starkly different from the current form. Would be interesting to see how things shape up in future in India.
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Old 28th September 2017, 15:29   #29
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Default Re: Will EVs lead to a slowdown in car sales?

I wouldn't expect any correlation between electric cars and car sales. OEMs are focussing on India simply because we have lower penetration level of around 50 cars per 1000 people and a growing middle class. So no matter how the vehicles are powered, our society will continue to steadily increase the amount of cars.

The only thing that might have some impact on sales is building convenient Public transit systems that solves the purpose of otherwise owning a car or bike. But even that is a few decades away since we still regard vehicle purchase as a social status.
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