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Old 22nd September 2017, 12:29   #1
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Default Will EVs lead to a slowdown in car sales?

The sudden boost in EV technology got me thinking :

Will the consumers buy cars as often in the future with EVs, as opposed to the rate now?

The cars could become a mere means to service, rather than a proud possession.

With the impact of autonomous driving and electric vehicles, everyone could lose that personal touch/affection with the cars and its thrill of driving. Due to technology, there would be significant lower accidents/minor incidents, which often compelled someone to buy a vehicle.

With fewer parts, these new vehicles could require less maintenance due to lower wear and tear. The batteries would be available in a leased plan and changed periodically.
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Old 22nd September 2017, 12:42   #2
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Default re: Will EVs lead to a slowdown in car sales?

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Originally Posted by sharktale View Post

Will the consumers buy cars as often in the future with EVs, as opposed to the rate now?
Most likely, Yes.
Infrastructure in most Indian Cities can't keep up with the increasing population. This combined with higher purchasing power of Indian population, will drive sales northwards.

Quote:
The cars could become a mere means to service, rather than a proud possession.
Not necessarily. People with Teslas and E2Os are equally passionate about their cars.

Quote:
With the impact of autonomous driving and electric vehicles, everyone could lose that personal touch/affection with the cars and its thrill of driving. Due to technology, there would be significant lower accidents/minor incidents, which often compelled someone to buy a vehicle.
Easier said than done. Autonomous driving today is still not "completely" autonomous.
Even Tesla's much hyped system, works only on Highways/Freeways, and not in thick traffic.

Quote:
With fewer parts, these new vehicles could require less maintenance due to lower wear and tear.
Suspension, Steering, Motors etc will need periodic servicing.
Electronics and Electricals will fail, and they will need replacement and repairs.
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Old 22nd September 2017, 12:48   #3
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Default re: Will EVs lead to a slowdown in car sales?

Though I do welcome the infusion of the EVs, what we would be losing out is on the range or the distance we can drive. For Eg- I normally drive on vacations (includes driving down to my hometown, Kerala). With an electric car, I am pretty much sure, the journey which took me 2 days is going take 3 to 4 days owing to the limited range. From a tourer's point of view, it's going to be a severe blow.

Last edited by GTO : 22nd September 2017 at 13:33. Reason: Poorly typed posts.
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Old 22nd September 2017, 12:56   #4
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Default re: Will EVs lead to a slowdown in car sales?

According to Bloomberg, there will be no slowdown in demand for cars - but thanks to new technologies like electric vehicles, autonomous cars and ride-sharing, the ownership profile of cars will change.

Ownership costs (maintenance + depreciation + fuel cost) of electric vehicles is likely to be 50% of petrol/diesel cars. Lower visits to authorized service stations means this might reduce the number of mechanics / service advisor type of jobs in this sector. On the plus side, this is likely to increase the number of high end jobs (in manufacturing sector and also in software companies)

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It will still take 20 more years for electric vehicles to constitute 50% of overall car sales.

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If automobile companies are not nimble enough, it is very likely that they will go the Nokia way.

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Over time, oil demand from transport sector will fall.

Will EVs lead to a slowdown in car sales?-oil.jpg

However, the Bloomberg article seems to forget that oil has a million uses. Demand for oil from other sectors is likely to keep demand at current levels.

Bloomberg article:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...n-since-iphone

Last edited by smartcat : 22nd September 2017 at 13:09.
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Old 22nd September 2017, 13:04   #5
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Default re: Will EVs lead to a slowdown in car sales?

With the advent of EVs the torque and power which the internal combustion engines offer will be definitely missed. But on the brighter side, with the EVs becoming the norm the cities will start breathing easy again as the pollution levels will see drastic fall. Also with fewer moving parts the electrically driven vehicles will be easy on the customer's pocket. To say that with the coming of EVs the current trend of buying internal combustion engine vehicles will change is quite unlikely, as to the most people will buy EVs to use in cities only, whereas for outstation runs the fuel powered work horses will be relied upon.
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Old 22nd September 2017, 13:16   #6
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Default re: Will EVs lead to a slowdown in car sales?

While EVs apparently reduce "pollution", one must consider that to produce electricity, conventional sources are used (read Coal). Nuclear energy is an alternate, but then, safe disposal after use is a concern as well. Before EVs are widespread, a network and method for billing for charging on the go needs to exist. Safe disposal of batteries are to be considered as well since every car would probably start using a bank of batteries rather than the one now.

I am reminded of the time when Catalytic convertors were put on cars and everyone was of the belief that the world would be cleaner and better. What we have now is that we have CO2 (green house gas) to handle; global warming.

Frankly, with a connected world that we have today, and one that is getting better continually, if commuting to work is reduced, if not eliminated, it would contribute a lot to the environment rather than moving from ICVs to EVs.
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Old 22nd September 2017, 13:24   #7
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Default re: Will EVs lead to a slowdown in car sales?

In the context of slowing down the car purchases apart from the electric vehicles (which is a long shot), in the immediate future actually the UBER and OLA revolution has already made an impact or maybe will make more impact in my opinion.

A car with driver and air-condition with the convenience of good competitive rates, pooling, without the hassles of parking and door to door service. Also in places like Delhi with odd even rules this becomes more convenient.

And if these cab/cars are equipped with electric motors then it will further discourage ownership of private vehicles.

This may have been discussed elsewhere in the relative thread but I felt this appropriate here too in relation to the title of the thread.

Last edited by The Great : 22nd September 2017 at 13:26.
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Old 22nd September 2017, 13:32   #8
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Default re: Will EVs lead to a slowdown in car sales?

I don't see sales slowing down in India, no matter what kind of power a car has.

1. In India, a car is an 'object of desire'. It's one of the two things an Indian MUST have (other being a house). It's also important from the social standpoint, something Indians care about deeply.

2. Car penetration levels are woefully low here. Think 30 - 40 cars / 1,000 citizens vs 600 - 800 / 1,000 citizens in developed countries.

3. Our pathetic public transportation.

Quote:
Originally Posted by rakesh_r View Post
I normally drive on vacations (includes driving down to my hometown, Kerala). With an electric car, I am pretty much sure, the journey which took me 2 days is going to take 3 to 4 days owing to the limited range.
Not really. We're already seeing EVs with a 500 km range; only a matter of time before they offer 800 - 1,000 km. Can't think of too many drivers who can do that much in a day (I'm personally comfortable with 600 - 700 kms a day tops).

Last edited by GTO : 22nd September 2017 at 13:35.
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Old 22nd September 2017, 16:08   #9
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Default Re: Will EVs lead to a slowdown in car sales?

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Originally Posted by swissknife View Post
While EVs apparently reduce "pollution", one must consider that to produce electricity, conventional sources are used (read Coal).
"We are using coal" is old news. 75% of new power capacity added in the last 6 months is via renewables (solar, wind, hydro & nuclear). Solar power is now cheaper than Coal power.

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Originally Posted by rakesh_r View Post
Though I do welcome the infusion of the EVs, what we would be losing out is on the range or the distance we can drive. .
Quote:
Originally Posted by GTO View Post
Not really. We're already seeing EVs with a 500 km range; only a matter of time before they offer 800 - 1,000 km.
The time has come already: Proterra's electric bus drove a record 1,100 miles on a single charge
https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/p...single-charge/


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Old 22nd September 2017, 20:47   #10
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Default Re: Will EVs lead to a slowdown in car sales?

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Originally Posted by GTO View Post
Not really. We're already seeing EVs with a 500 km range; only a matter of time before they offer 800 - 1,000 km. Can't think of too many drivers who can do that much in a day (I'm personally comfortable with 600 - 700 kms a day tops).
Are you sure this is right? I ask because Iíve not been able to come across electric cars with that great a range after searching the web for quite a bit. Are these prototypes or cars already on sale?
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Old 22nd September 2017, 21:54   #11
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Default Re: Will EVs lead to a slowdown in car sales?

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Originally Posted by wilful View Post
Are you sure this is right? I ask because I’ve not been able to come across electric cars with that great a range after searching the web for quite a bit. Are these prototypes or cars already on sale?
The 100 KWh model of the Tesla Model S has a rated range of 315 miles which is equal to 504 kilometres for the AWD model and 335 miles ~539 kilometres for the rear wheel drive model.

Has been on sale for over 3-4 years.

Contrary to the topic of the post, I think car sales will increase when EVs become popular. They are ridiculously cheap to run compared to normal cars and I see lot of two wheeler owners upgrading.

Last edited by Ragavsr : 22nd September 2017 at 22:06.
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Old 22nd September 2017, 22:38   #12
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Default Re: Will EVs lead to a slowdown in car sales?

Quote:
Originally Posted by GTO View Post
In India, a car is an 'object of desire'. It's one of the two things an Indian MUST have (other being a house). It's also important from the social standpoint, something Indians care about deeply.
This would apply to most other countries including the US, UK, and Germany.
I feel the notion that one needs to own a car is something that will be challenged in a big way. Consider this - a personal car is parked 95% of the time. 95% of the time the biggest investment (other than house) you make is sitting idle. Sometimes in a basement, sometimes in a shopping mall, sometimes in the garage at home. A shift away from car ownership will result in huge space savings. I would love to use my 2 car garage, and 2 car driveway for something other than parking cars. Perhaps grow organic vegetables, or a giant game room!

A car that is not owned can easily be fully autonomous and electric. Such a self drive electric car can put the effort of getting into a dark dungeon. Most work places, hospitals, malls, schools have huge amounts of spaces carved out for parking. There is a lot of savings that can some out of using a shared dungeon. Another bump in efficiency and range would come with wireless charging. This way cars would not have to lug big heavy batteries. Another saving would come from costs of treating injuries from auto accidents.

I can only wish and optimistically foresee that people will realize the benefits of such a society. Where we have one track for autonomous vehicles and another for walking bicycling. A whopping 90% of short trips less than a mile are made by cars. This is cultural conditioning. These can easily be made by walking or bicycling provided we have decent walking paths and bicycling tracks.

In such a future, I would certainly welcome a car racing track where I can drive a non-autonomous car. Similar to people riding horses now.
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Old 22nd September 2017, 23:26   #13
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Default Re: Will EVs lead to a slowdown in car sales?

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Originally Posted by smartcat View Post
"We are using coal" is old news. 75% of new power capacity added in the last 6 months is via renewables (solar, wind, hydro & nuclear). Solar power is now cheaper than Coal power.
Agreed that the government is taking efforts to produce and promote Renewable energy, but practically speaking, solar energy isn't feasible at this stage. In the current installed capacity of power production, Renewable sources just make up 22%. Also there have been incidents where Discoms dealing with renewable energy have backed out after signing PPAs due to lack of financial feasibility. So India will be heavily dependent on Coal in the coming years also.
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Old 22nd September 2017, 23:43   #14
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Default Re: Will EVs lead to a slowdown in car sales?

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Originally Posted by smartcat View Post

The time has come already: Proterra's electric bus drove a record 1,100 miles on a single charge
https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/p...single-charge/
This bus was fitted with a 660KWH battery pack and was driven at 15 MPH around a test track to achieve this record. In real world conditions, even if we get a max range of 600 Miles (965KM), I guess that should be more than enough for our Intercity transport needs.

At similar speeds, the current official range record for a Tesla P100 is 901KM in a single charge. This car was driven at 25MPH around a test track. Another group in Italy drove P100D for a record 1078KM in a single charge.


Very soon we will have main stream cars with 700-800 KM range which should be more than enough for our regular touring needs. The moment these crosses 1000KM per charge, it will be time to bury the ICE cars.

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Originally Posted by TheRajput View Post
Also there have been incidents where Discoms dealing with renewable energy have backed out after signing PPAs due to lack of financial feasibility. So India will be heavily dependent on Coal in the coming years also.
The Discoms backing out of PPAs were not because the Discoms were not interested in renewable energy nor because of financial feasibility. They tried to backout because the recent PPAs by other Disoms/Govts were much lower than the PPAs these discoms had signed. The current PPA are below Rs 3 per KWh while the previous deals were signed for over Rs 4 per kWH. The Distribution Companies/Govt wanted to get the power for lower tariffs than the deals they had signed. By backing out, they were hoping to get renewable energy for even cheaper rates. This is a sign of even brighter future for renewable energy (though bad for the companies who invested in the infrastructure based on the PPA).
Again AFAIK, the Central Govt has stepped in to save these companies and has also issued guide lines to the states so that they do not backout from signed PPAs.

Last edited by Holyghost : 22nd September 2017 at 23:56.
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Old 23rd September 2017, 09:42   #15
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Default Re: Will EVs lead to a slowdown in car sales?

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Originally Posted by wilful View Post
Are you sure this is right? I ask because Iíve not been able to come across electric cars with that great a range after searching the web for quite a bit. Are these prototypes or cars already on sale?
500km is quite normal with the Tesla. I expect more to come up as Lithium Batteries take hold. In India (or at least most of it) the need for Air-conditioning will reduce the range somewhat. I will say 400km plus will be the norm for vehicles which are not local run arounds.
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