Go Back   Team-BHP > BHP India > The Indian Car Scene


Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old 1st September 2014, 12:18   #3781
BANNED
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Mumbai
Posts: 777
Thanked: 683 Times
Infractions: 0/1 (9)
Default Re: The Official Fuel Prices Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by S_U_N View Post
So, they are going to take that money from us? If price is hiked by Rs. 10+ then we are back in the 85+ range/ liter. Bad times ahead.
For Fuel prices to FALL further from present levels:

- Brent has to get cheaper
- Inflation has to stay under 5%
- Rupee has to continue strengthen by 50 ps a month
- GDP growth rates in West & China should not increase (i.e. fuel demand)
- Govt has to fund entire Euro-5 upgrade instead of collecting from consumer.

What do you want bet on?

I bet Fuel prices will continue to increase, we can only hope it stays to about 10% per annum, not more.

Last edited by gsurya : 1st September 2014 at 12:26.
gsurya is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 1st September 2014, 12:50   #3782
Distinguished - BHPian
 
sgiitk's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Kanpur
Posts: 6,639
Thanked: 3,056 Times
Infractions: 0/1 (4)
Default Re: The Official Fuel Prices Thread

@gsurya; UBS predicts rupee at 62 to a dollar by the end of 2105.
sgiitk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 1st September 2014, 12:56   #3783
BANNED
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Mumbai
Posts: 777
Thanked: 683 Times
Infractions: 0/1 (9)
Default Re: The Official Fuel Prices Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by sgiitk View Post
@gsurya; UBS predicts rupee at 62 to a dollar by the end of 2105.
I hope you meant 2015 Yes 62 to USD would be a good level for Rupee to be in though exporters would like it to be around 65. FII or FDI inflows will zoom only if Rupee falls further to become competitive.

But this also means costlier fuel imports, read higher prices at the pump.
gsurya is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 1st September 2014, 14:03   #3784
BHPian
 
Desi Dybuk's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Location: KA 25
Posts: 120
Thanked: 125 Times
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by sgiitk View Post
@gsurya; UBS predicts rupee at 62 to a dollar by the end of 2105.
Call me a skeptic, but I rarely trust these 'Analysts' who make public predictions like these. Their real analysis, they would only share with their paying clients.

Seeing the economy bounce back, increased interest due to the perceptions of a proactive new government in India, withdrawal of FIIs from Russia & into India etc means that Rs is only going to strengthen in the months to come. Take it for whatever it's worth but I feel Rs will strengthen to 58 by year end.

Consequently, I expect fuel prices to drop further...

Last edited by Desi Dybuk : 1st September 2014 at 14:23.
Desi Dybuk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 1st September 2014, 14:57   #3785
Distinguished - BHPian
 
saket77's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Ranchi
Posts: 2,948
Thanked: 2,841 Times
Default Re: The Official Fuel Prices Thread

The Union Minister of Home Affairs, Mr. Rajnath Singh has indicated that the Govt. will try to reduce the prices of diesel too. Link: http://aajtak.intoday.in/story/diese...-1-778357.html

Looks like the fuel is completely deregulated now and the decrement is being talked in perspective of fall in crude prices or hoping to ride on a stronger rupee.
saket77 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 1st September 2014, 15:55   #3786
Senior - BHPian
 
khoj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Dilli
Posts: 2,641
Thanked: 1,169 Times
Default Re: The Official Fuel Prices Thread

US domestic production is now at it's highest level and increasing. Earlier this year the US government lifted the ban on export of crude and it is estimated that by 2030 they will stop importing altogether and will become net exporters. This leaves countries sitting on stocks in South America, Africa and of course the Gulf. Further China is increasing it's off take from Russia and reducing the same from Gulf. If the above pans out and all indications are that it will crude prices may have seen their glory days and could be headed South. Add to the above some countries towing the Iran line and agreeing to accept payment against our exports to them adjusted in terms of INR value (no pegging to INR vs $) the scenario becomes even more interesting. The latest expansion announced by Reliance involves making their refining units capable of increased levels of sour crude which is what a majority of output from the Gulf is. Surely these guys will invest in this technology only when they perceive sweeter deals for sour crude coming their way in the times to come.



Quote:
Originally Posted by gsurya View Post
I bet Fuel prices will continue to increase, we can only hope it stays to about 10% per annum, not more.
khoj is offline   (1) Thanks Reply With Quote
Old 1st September 2014, 16:59   #3787
Distinguished - BHPian
 
sgiitk's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Kanpur
Posts: 6,639
Thanked: 3,056 Times
Infractions: 0/1 (4)
Default Re: The Official Fuel Prices Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Desi Dybuk View Post
Seeing the economy bounce back, increased interest due to the perceptions of a proactive new government in India, withdrawal of FIIs from Russia & into India etc means that Rs is only going to strengthen in the months to come. Take it for whatever it's worth but I feel Rs will strengthen to 58 by year end.
Yes but inflation at 6% as against ~2% in the developed world will push to other way.
sgiitk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 1st September 2014, 17:29   #3788
BHPian
 
Desi Dybuk's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Location: KA 25
Posts: 120
Thanked: 125 Times
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by sgiitk View Post
Yes but inflation at 6% as against ~2% in the developed world will push to other way.
Yes, controlling the inflation will determine the future of prices. Considering RBI's aversion to inflation, I suspect inflation can't get any worse & might even be tamed.
Desi Dybuk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2nd September 2014, 09:30   #3789
Distinguished - BHPian
 
sgiitk's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Kanpur
Posts: 6,639
Thanked: 3,056 Times
Infractions: 0/1 (4)
Default Re: The Official Fuel Prices Thread

Now with CAD at 1.7% something really good may happen. I expect a rate cut very soon. The chain reaction should help!
sgiitk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2nd September 2014, 10:29   #3790
BHPian
 
Desi Dybuk's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Location: KA 25
Posts: 120
Thanked: 125 Times
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by sgiitk View Post
Now with CAD at 1.7% something really good may happen. I expect a rate cut very soon. The chain reaction should help!
Sir, don't you think it's about the right time to look at the absurd taxation regime difference between Petrol & Diesel? There's no reason why one fuel should be taxed so high when compared to another.
Desi Dybuk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2nd September 2014, 13:29   #3791
Senior - BHPian
 
S_U_N's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Pune
Posts: 1,764
Thanked: 365 Times
Default Re: The Official Fuel Prices Thread

Petrol price was around 76.50 (cannot remember exact figure now), yesterday in Pune.

Around 15 days back it was about Rs. 81.5 at the same place.
S_U_N is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2nd September 2014, 21:36   #3792
BANNED
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Vizag
Posts: 1,828
Thanked: 951 Times
Default Re: The Official Fuel Prices Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by drmohitg View Post
Also the depreciation would be much higher on the petrol variant than the diesel. Hence it is not that easy to draw such conclusions.
Depreciation is an artificial factor in tune with times. If the whole nation goes Goa way as far as prices of fuels are concerned, petrol cars won't depreciate as much. People would be open to idea of used petrol cars and should that happen petrol cars won't depreciate that much.

As for FE is concerned, both petrol and diesel FE figures certified by ARAI are academic. In real life scenario neither returns as much FE. I see diesel cars being driven very rashly, spooling turbo up, slipping clutch or dragging ( the belching smoke tells the stroy ) and not to speak of several minutes of careless idling with aircon on at malls, stations etc. which most diesel car owners subject their cars to. So in then end all the economy is negated. I say this from my personal experience, when I had owned a diesel sedan ( Lancer) 2 years ago, I would make 3 trips for 3 chores, idle unnecessarily, step on it etc. But a change over to petrol car made me make 1 trip and finish all 3 chores. I'm saving more now than in my diesel car days.
pgsagar is offline   (1) Thanks Reply With Quote
Old 2nd September 2014, 22:04   #3793
Distinguished - BHPian
 
drmohitg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Delhi
Posts: 4,166
Thanked: 2,934 Times
Default Re: The Official Fuel Prices Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by pgsagar View Post
Depreciation is an artificial factor in tune with times. If the whole nation goes Goa way as far as prices of fuels are concerned, petrol cars won't depreciate as much. People would be open to idea of used petrol cars and should that happen petrol cars won't depreciate that much.

As for FE is concerned, both petrol and diesel FE figures certified by ARAI are academic. In real life scenario neither returns as much FE. I see diesel cars being driven very rashly, spooling turbo up, slipping clutch or dragging ( the belching smoke tells the stroy ) and not to speak of several minutes of careless idling with aircon on at malls, stations etc. which most diesel car owners subject their cars to. So in then end all the economy is negated. I say this from my personal experience, when I had owned a diesel sedan ( Lancer) 2 years ago, I would make 3 trips for 3 chores, idle unnecessarily, step on it etc. But a change over to petrol car made me make 1 trip and finish all 3 chores. I'm saving more now than in my diesel car days.
Goa is a very small place compared to the rest of the country. So for a general discussion we need to keep into account the situation prevalent throughout the country and not in just one region.

Regarding the FE, petrol FE figures vary quite a bit in comparison to diesel from the official ARAI ratings. This is based on my experience of driving in Delhi. Smaller cities with less dense traffic might vary a little. So for example all D segment cars like Altis, Jetta return a healthy 17-19 kmpl whereas there petrol counterparts struggle to return 11 kmpl. That is a huge difference.

Lastly when you do these calculations, you cant claim that with a petrol car you modify your style of living or driving and do 3 chores at a time unlike with a diesel where you would have made multiple trips without bothering. This sense of freedom itself is a factor enough to make me opt for diesel.
drmohitg is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 2nd September 2014, 22:14   #3794
BHPian
 
Desi Dybuk's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Location: KA 25
Posts: 120
Thanked: 125 Times
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by drmohitg View Post
Goa is a very small place compared to the rest of the country. So for a general discussion we need to keep into account the situation prevalent throughout the country and not in just one region.

Regarding the FE, petrol FE figures vary quite a bit in comparison to diesel from the official ARAI ratings. This is based on my experience of driving in Delhi. Smaller cities with less dense traffic might vary a little. So for example all D segment cars like Altis, Jetta return a healthy 17-19 kmpl whereas there petrol counterparts struggle to return 11 kmpl. That is a huge difference.

Lastly when you do these calculations, you cant claim that with a petrol car you modify your style of living or driving and do 3 chores at a time unlike with a diesel where you would have made multiple trips without bothering. This sense of freedom itself is a factor enough to make me opt for diesel.
Yours is an empirical data when you don't want to take ARAI figures and say that Petrol vehicles 'Struggle' to get 8-10 km/l & Diesel 'easily' gets 17-18 in city.

I drive in Bangalore & I consistently get 12-13 in City & get 17 out on the highway. It's because I drive sensibly.

Let us work with Data that can be validated in absence of another source, shall we?

In addition, what about the additional cost of maintenance/servicing of Diesel cars?

Then there's that issue about Diesel in India being 'Dirty' and more noxious.
Desi Dybuk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2nd September 2014, 22:47   #3795
BHPian
 
blacksport's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: bangalore
Posts: 521
Thanked: 459 Times
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Desi Dybuk View Post

Yours is an empirical data when you don't want to take ARAI figures and say that Petrol vehicles 'Struggle' to get 8-10 km/l & Diesel 'easily' gets 17-18 in city.

I drive in Bangalore & I consistently get 12-13 in City & get 17 out on the highway. It's because I drive sensibly.

Let us work with Data that can be validated in absence of another source, shall we?

In addition, what about the additional cost of maintenance/servicing of Diesel cars?

Then there's that issue about Diesel in India being 'Dirty' and more noxious.
Moreover, 1.25L saved on a petrol car would grow to 2.5L by the time the car becomes old enough to be sold, and at that time the 2.5L at hand would more than compensate for the loss due to higher depreciation. Buying diesel cars were rarely economical, even when it was 55 per liter. Diesel buyers just hate to do the math.
blacksport is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
BMW to drop prices due to increased localisation. EDIT: New prices announced Aditya The Indian Car Scene 38 10th July 2015 21:19
Have official pioneer HU prices fallen? greenhorn In-Car Entertainment 3 11th January 2010 01:36
Hyundai Cut prices- New detailed prices. harry10 The Indian Car Scene 5 9th December 2008 00:45
Are these good prices for Tata\Fiat vehicles? Corporate Offer Prices sahakar The Indian Car Scene 15 8th July 2008 23:03


All times are GMT +5.5. The time now is 14:14.

Copyright 2000 - 2016, Team-BHP.com
Proudly powered by E2E Networks