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Old 4th September 2014, 18:04   #3826
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Default Re: The Official Fuel Prices Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mohan Mathew A View Post
I think there is a problem with this math too (now don’t hit me on the head with a hammer)

You have INR 842571
In the case of diesel car you use it fully to buy the car
In the case of the petrol car you use INR 713667 to buy the car and the remaining INR 128904 you deposit in a bank. The important thing to note here is that you have used the entire amount (I agree, one is a bank deposit)
After 7 years in the case of the diesel car you get INR 400000 as resale. So your net outgo is 842571-400000=442571
After 7 years in the case of the petrol car you get INR 250000 as resale. You also get INR 257808 from the bank. So your net outgo is 842571- (250000+257808)= 334763
When you add the fuel expenses, for the diesel car your total outgo is 442571+379166.7=821737.7
When you add the fuel expenses, for the petrol car your total outgo is 334763+605769.2=940532.2
Good job buddy but I think the difference in resale value is too high (now with the gap between petrol and diesel reducing fast)
Only thing missing is the higher insurance cost and possibly higher maintenance cost on the diesel. If we consider those, then the calculation become complete IMO. Another thing - the initial amount saved can possibly give better returns though Mutual funds/stocks/bonds etc.

Last edited by adimicra : 4th September 2014 at 18:06.
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Old 4th September 2014, 18:32   #3827
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Default Re: The Official Fuel Prices Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mohan Mathew A View Post
When you add the fuel expenses, for the diesel car your total outgo is 442571+379166.7=821737.7
When you add the fuel expenses, for the petrol car your total outgo is 334763+605769.2=940532.2
Defnitely looks in favour of the diesel in this scenario. A difference of around 1 lakh over 7 years invested wisely, all of a sudden not bad to have


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Last edited by Rudra Sen : 8th September 2014 at 17:01.
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Old 4th September 2014, 18:34   #3828
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Default Re: The Official Fuel Prices Thread

May be we should revive one of these threads instead of using the "official-fuel-prices-thread" for comparison.

http://www.team-bhp.com/forum/indian...l-cars-10.html (Petrol versus Diesel Cars)
http://www.team-bhp.com/forum/indian...diesel-16.html (The financial Truth: Petrol vs Diesel)
http://www.team-bhp.com/forum/indian...-diesel-9.html (*Attached* : Fuel cost calculator, including a comparison between Petrol & Diesel)
http://www.team-bhp.com/forum/indian...ol-cars-5.html (Diesel:Petrol Car Sales Ratio. Major Shift in favour of Petrol Cars!)

Every time I see an update on this thread in my subscription, I click it immediately, anticipating another price revision or the scope of it

Last edited by thoma : 4th September 2014 at 18:39.
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Old 4th September 2014, 18:43   #3829
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Default Re: The Official Fuel Prices Thread

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Originally Posted by thoma View Post
May be we should revive one of these threads instead of using the "official-fuel-prices-thread" for comparison.

Every time I see an update on this thread in my subscription, I click it immediately, anticipating another price revision or the scope of it
Completely agree to this. The discussions on this thread are going way and I myself have contributed to it. Time to change that.
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Old 5th September 2014, 10:35   #3830
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Default Re: The Official Fuel Prices Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by adimicra View Post
Good job buddy but I think the difference in resale value is too high (now with the gap between petrol and diesel reducing fast)
Only thing missing is the higher insurance cost and possibly higher maintenance cost on the diesel. If we consider those, then the calculation become complete IMO. Another thing - the initial amount saved can possibly give better returns though Mutual funds/stocks/bonds etc.
I only intended to correct the calculation keeping other assumptions the same.

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Quote:
Originally Posted by dass View Post
Completely agree to this. The discussions on this thread are going way and I myself have contributed to it. Time to change that.
I too agree. this is not the right thread for this. i just wanted to correct the math so that people are not misinformed. I will refrain from any more
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Old 5th September 2014, 14:29   #3831
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Default Re: The Official Fuel Prices Thread

I know this is not a yardstick but I used to notice Shell diesel prices at 66.75 until yesterday and now they have reduced it to 66.0x

Now shell is here for profits and If they are reducing the price by 75 paisa, does it mean that the crude has fallen pretty much but still our PSU are silent about it ?

PSU must be easily making a profit of 50 paisa + unlike the earlier claims of losses

Can some Guru shed some light ?
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Old 5th September 2014, 14:50   #3832
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Default Re: The Official Fuel Prices Thread

India is a 'price increase' market and not a 'price reduction' market. It is a market geared towards inflation whichever be the variable.

While it hasn't made a big difference to large sections of the population till now, it will bit in future.
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Old 5th September 2014, 19:04   #3833
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Default Re: The Official Fuel Prices Thread

@rajshenoy; Shell is a reseller buying the fuels from IOC.
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Old 6th September 2014, 19:38   #3834
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Default Re: The Official Fuel Prices Thread

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Originally Posted by sgiitk View Post
@rajshenoy; Shell is a reseller buying the fuels from IOC.
Is it so? Do they buy the output from IOC and sell the same in the market at a higher price? Or have they given IOC a contract to extract a different grade of Fuel all-together for Shell?
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Old 8th September 2014, 10:48   #3835
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Default Re: The Official Fuel Prices Thread

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Originally Posted by baahubali View Post
Is it so? Do they buy the output from IOC and sell the same in the market at a higher price? Or have they given IOC a contract to extract a different grade of Fuel all-together for Shell?
Shell India do indeed source their fuels from PSU refineries.

One person associated with Shell told me that they get the fuels refined to their (i.e. Shell's own) specifications and quality from the PSU refineries, but I don't know how accurate this is. What I do know is that Shell don't use the PSU supply chain for their fuels. They have separate tankers supplying fuel to their pumps from the refineries.

Since they go for bulk deals with the PSU refineries, I bet they get the fuels at a price that's slightly lower than the retail price of the fuels. They don't get any "subsidy" from the government, so their prices are a more accurate reflection of the international crude oil prices, especially for diesel.
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Old 9th September 2014, 07:26   #3836
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Default Re: The Official Fuel Prices Thread

Diesel prices might be cut this month and there would be a further cut in petrol prices on September 15th.

Crude is now trading below $100, and Rupee has appreciated too. These two things, along with monthly price increases have eroded need for diesel subsidy.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...w/42062453.cms
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Old 9th September 2014, 19:46   #3837
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Default Re: The Official Fuel Prices Thread

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Originally Posted by NetfreakBombay View Post
Diesel prices might be cut this month and there would be a further cut in petrol prices on September 15th.

Crude is now trading below $100, and Rupee has appreciated too. These two things, along with monthly price increases have eroded need for diesel subsidy.
Brent has again inched up to just above $100, but the argument holds. My own guess is that the Diesel deregulation + price cut may come on 2 October! Also, this may be a controlled leak, remember the "Ship of State is the only one which leaks from the Top".
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Old 10th September 2014, 11:59   #3838
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Default Re: The Official Fuel Prices Thread

Just read an interesting report from Bank of America: "Does Saudi Want $85 Oil Price"

Since this report is on subscription basis in my office hence can't attach the report, but the following is the extract of the same:

1. Islamic State could force a rethink of Saudi oil output policy
We recently showed how active management of Saudi oil output has helped keep oil prices above $100/bbl for almost 4 years. Yet recent advances by the Islamic State (IS) have disrupted Middle East politics and shifted incentives for key regional and global players. After all, self-proclaimed caliph al-Baghdhadi, leader of the IS, rejects political divisions established by Western powers at the end of World War I. As such, IS presents a direct threat to Middle East governments at a time of growing social discontent. What could Arab countries offer the West to help contain this threat? Lower oil prices..

2. Lower oil would hurt IS, Iran and Russia, but help the West
Western leaders should welcome the help. Lower oil prices could weaken Russia’s hand by significantly curtailing revenue streams, just as they did the mid 1980s and again in the late 1990s. Then there is the upcoming November US midterm election. History does rhyme here too. Since 1990 Brent prices have been, on average, 2% lower in the month preceding a US election and 4% lower in the election month itself. Lastly a dip in prices could benefit Saudi Arabia by simultaneously slowing down US shale oil investments and weakening Iran and IS financially. A delay in energy independence would keep the US engaged in the Middle East for longer.

3. So far, Saudi has increased oil output despite a drop in prices
Are there any signs that Saudi may want lower oil? Discounts in Aramco’s official oil selling prices (OSPs) tend to lag the crude oil curve shape and say little about Saudi production intentions. Yet our analysis suggests a 10% drop in oil prices has historically led to an average 1.5% reduction in Saudi production 3 months later. The recent drop would imply a supply cut of 150-200 k b/d. Instead Saudi has increased production by 200 k b/d since June, allowing Brent to move lower. How much money can Saudi forgo? A significant amount, as the government budget break-even is $85/bbl. True, a lower oil price carries risks. But the Islamic State may now pose a larger immediate threat.

Seems we are in midst of a major correction in International crude oil prices.
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Old 10th September 2014, 13:34   #3839
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Default Re: The Official Fuel Prices Thread

What quantity of oil does IS ship out ? So 'Bank of America' could well do away with IS bogeyman.

Yes, they want to desperately teach Iran & Russia a lesson.
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Old 10th September 2014, 14:07   #3840
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Default Re: The Official Fuel Prices Thread

Last Govt made a brave move of price decontrol on petrol & 50 ps per month price increase on Diesel & also increased LPG prices despite negative public perception.

Good to see that despite calling for Bharat Bandh on these reforms when in opposition, new Govt has followed the policy of last Govt that was for good of the nation.

Hope it now has the guts to complete diesel decontrol now that international fuel prices & Rupee are both in a good range.

After this comes the task of tackling LPG, Kerosene & fertilizer subsidies using Aadhaar/DBT for targeting them instead of making them free for all.

Also, last Govt wanted fuel under GST, this will also reduces fuel taxes significantly, but BJP states had opposed it then on the pretext of federalism. Hope there is a U-turn on this too that will also be for good of consumers.
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