What will be the car scene after 3-5yrs

[Sush]

Hi Guys,
Gone are the days when Maruti had a monoply. Now, so many car manufacturers have come up and more foreign manufacturers want to enter the car market in India. It seems that the market is sort of getting flooded with new cars. It might be a stupid thought but i really feel that buying a new car is increasingly becoming a difficult task. So many cars are becoming available in a particular budget that choosing one is going to perplex people a lot.

[GTO]

Well, if you ask me who is going to be strong after 3 - 5 years in the Indian car scene:

1. Toyota - Working like mad men with their product and distribution strategy. Small cars, MUVs, all range sedans, diesel engines and the benefit of mastering precision/low cost manufacturing.

2. Hyundai - New Santro and Accent will be out by then alongiwth an MUV. Established distribution network and brand value is their strength. Probably the "Maruti" of the new era if they can expand their product portfolio in the 3 - 8 lac rupee range.

I honestly dont know how Tata is going to fare..even with the new Indica / Indigo platform and Sumo / Safari. It has had a price and diesel engine advantage but this wont last for long with so many manufacturers putting in full blown manufacturing facilities in India and China.

Another loser is going to be Mahindra. You cant survive on only one product (Scorpio) and though the Renault Logan is expected to be launched by them, I think Renault is just using Mahindra the way Ford did. Mahindra does not have the sales and service capability to cater to the new breed of demanding and informed customers. Period.

Maruti, well. Except for the Swift I dont see anything else exciting. They could replace the Esteem / Baleno with new age inexpensive sedans like the Liana but Suzuki does not have the $$$ anymore to consistently develop a wide range of products.

Fiat - Unless they do something revolutionary about their operations, management and marketing I dont see them in India after 3 years.

GTO

[drifter]

I agree with GTO....but one thing...

Agreed tata will feel the heat from increased competition...but i doubt any other company beating them in the economics of manufacturing a car...they will still produce VFM cars...and i dont see others matching them in this aspect. Lets face it TATA sells on VFM and we all know they are damn good at it.

Drifter

[Boom Shiva]

I don't think just VFM alone will work once the market is evolved. Even Premier Padminis are damn good VFM because they're so cheap, but people's expectations have been lifted and they want more from a car.

Personally I hope TATA Motors goes bankrupt for the piece of crap Indigo they sold my family. Was forced to drive it for one whole year because my dad was pissed off at me (was studying in NZ and I cracked a piston of my Mitsubishi GTO TT), and trust me, the car was real punishment, right from the horrible quality, to the drive, to the FE, to the lack of spare parts for 2 months.

Anyways, I digress...I just hope that nobody has to put up with crap like that from any company in the future.

[typeOnegative]

Originally Posted by Boom Shiva

and trust me, the car was real punishment, right from the horrible quality, to the drive, to the FE, to the lack of spare parts for 2 months.

Though I am not a big fan of Tata Cars, I do not doubt their committment. They have corrected a lot of issues and going by their sales figures I guess everything is fine right now. I do not dispute the fact however that their initial offerings were below par. Big time.

[GTO]

I don't think just VFM alone will work once the market is evolved

Though I am not a big fan of Tata Cars, I do not doubt their committment. They have corrected a lot of issues and going by their sales figures I guess everything is fine right now.

Absolutely agree to both comments. Well said.

GTO

[adya33]

On interesting thing about TATA is that they also have steel industry which means they can get metal for cheap & hence their product cost will come down (they can even afford to sell steel to TATA motors on no profit basis & make profit of cars which will result in same corporate profit)
hence I think TATA will be a new Maruti

and within next 5 years Maruti brand will be totally replaced by Suzuki

GM will also phase out Opel brand & will introduce all cars under Chevorlet or else they will bring Chevorlet brand as VFM & all luxury cars under another brand

FIAT will either tie knot with someone or will go back

Honda will be in class of their own with Civic coming in

TOYOTA will be another success

We might see BMW bringing Mini in India (i.e. assembly in India)

[GTO]

Honda will be in class of their own with Civic coming in

Yes, but I think that they will always stay a small volume and relatively high-end product company.

We might see BMW bringing Mini in India (i.e. assembly in India)

Fat chance of that happening.

GTO

[typeOnegative]

Originally Posted by GTO

Yes, but I think that they will always stay a small volume and relatively high-end product company.
GTO

But GTO, how long do you think that will pay? Very soon you will have other big names like VW etc. entering with the same strategy ... Where will it leave Honda then? They will have to expand.

[CaliAtenza]

This is what i hope what will happen to the indian car market for the next 3-5 years..that it becomes much like the US market..with a wide range of vehicles of many different brands, including the luxury asian and american brands (Lexus, Acura, Cadilac, Lincoln, etc). Here are the things that need to happen in order for that to come true:

1. Indian govt needs to reduce taxes on cars itself, model itself after the US market.
2. Encourage more foreign manufacturers to setup manufacturing facilties in India itself, so costs can be lower
3. Encourage leasing/introduce the concept of leasing a car
4. Make more improvements to roads (already begun) quicker.
5. Actively promote more car buying, dergulation of the entire industry
6. Make realistic pricing...like for example..the Maruti 800 shouldnt be over 1 lakh as a new car...
7. Consolodate car dealerships into large chains, selling more than one brand, like for example, here in southern california, there is a group called Power..which sells preety much every brand at all of their dealerships across the area. So like one dealership would sell Ford, Lincoln, etc. And also..make dedicated auto malls..where all dealerships would be centrally located.
8. DEFINETLY IMPROVE THE QUALITY OF FUEL..this is the main thing..im happy that 91 and 93 are being rolled out..but can the quality of the fuel be compared to say Exxon-Mobil, or Shell, or Texaco or any other foriegn company
9. More drivers eduation and safety courses.

I seriously think these things can be done..in 5 years...or even less. The Indian economy has nowhere to go but up...so its an encouraging sign.

[adya33]

The Indian economy has nowhere to go but up..

surely indian politicians have potential to prove you wrong

[GTO]

But GTO, how long do you think that will pay?

Spot on, Type One. And thats the question everyone has in most other markets too. Honda has only a fraction of the models that say a Toyota company offers.

I remember an interview where Hondas management was firm about being an independent (no takeovers) and relatively specialist car manufacturer all through. Just like BMW!

The auto industry is just too exciting

GTO

[CaliAtenza]

Originally Posted by adya33

surely indian politicians have potential to prove you wrong

this is the thing..i seriously think, in india...people arent arguing enough against the politicans and the bueraucrats..india is the world's biggest democracy...i wanna see more visible change! But i think though..that the economy of india has finally seperated from the whims and controls of the politicans...so it can grow and exist on its own..there is no slowing that growth now...so it should be put to best use.

[johnjacob]

Originally Posted by GTO

Maruti, well. Except for the Swift I dont see anything else exciting. They could replace the Esteem / Baleno with new age inexpensive sedans like the Liana but Suzuki does not have the $$$ anymore to consistently develop a wide range of products.

But isn't the Swift supposed to be the first of a whole new line of quality, Euro-style products from Suzuki? I'm sure I heard that as a blurb somewhere...

[johnjacob]

Originally Posted by CaliAtenza

This is what i hope what will happen to the indian car market for the next 3-5 years..that it becomes much like the US market..with a wide range of vehicles of many different brands, including the luxury asian and american brands (Lexus, Acura, Cadilac, Lincoln, etc). Here are the things that need to happen in order for that to come true:

1. Indian govt needs to reduce taxes on cars itself, model itself after the US market.
2. Encourage more foreign manufacturers to setup manufacturing facilties in India itself, so costs can be lower
3. Encourage leasing/introduce the concept of leasing a car
4. Make more improvements to roads (already begun) quicker.
5. Actively promote more car buying, dergulation of the entire industry
6. Make realistic pricing...like for example..the Maruti 800 shouldnt be over 1 lakh as a new car...
7. Consolodate car dealerships into large chains, selling more than one brand, like for example, here in southern california, there is a group called Power..which sells preety much every brand at all of their dealerships across the area. So like one dealership would sell Ford, Lincoln, etc. And also..make dedicated auto malls..where all dealerships would be centrally located.
8. DEFINETLY IMPROVE THE QUALITY OF FUEL..this is the main thing..im happy that 91 and 93 are being rolled out..but can the quality of the fuel be compared to say Exxon-Mobil, or Shell, or Texaco or any other foriegn company
9. More drivers eduation and safety courses.

I seriously think these things can be done..in 5 years...or even less. The Indian economy has nowhere to go but up...so its an encouraging sign.

Add point 10 to your list.
10. Spend billions of rupees developing modern expressway infrastructure between major cities, and billions more to improve the existing roadways IN the major cities.

Considering the state of Bangalore roads today - there are like five times the number of vehicles than the roads were designed to carry - I shudder to think what the situation will be like when the Indian car market consistently sells over a million vehicles a year. And I hear that the other metro cities are almost as bad.