July 2009 Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

[diabloo]

Originally Posted by ACM

Civic upgrade is due - but then Jazz is a new car that did not exist last year and hence addtional business and numbers. CRV has been going down in sales since last 6 months - can't be for a year end launch.

Hardcore Š fan .

So Accord is taken out by Superb. Pity there is none to challenge Civic, CRV, ANHC to pile the cutomers misery. Where is Fabia ?

[coolboy007]

So Fiat has strengthened their sales this month, i thought they will fall compared to prev month.

Fiat July sales = 2474

Fiat Aug sales = 2782
Thats a net increase of 300 cars over prev month, i am very keen to know whether PUNTO has boosted its sales above 1600 mark or its the Linea which has increased its sales from a low 850 units in July.

Originally Posted by ACM

ut then Jazz is a new car that did not exist last year and hence addtional business and numbers.
They have just out priced their reliablity.

Jazz sales has fallen 50% from its 1st month from very next month itself. For a new car its bad, if it settles around this 1k mark what will happen after 3-4 months when initial hoopla is over.
Honda City is the grace saver for H now.
74 CRV? Thats a lot compared to earlier months, some bulk order from any company?

[asr245]

Originally Posted by diabloo

Hardcore Š fan .

So Accord is taken out by Superb. Pity there is none to challenge Civic, CRV, ANHC to pile the cutomers misery. Where is Fabia ?

Actually Civic has to compete with the Altis and one can it's pretty much beaten by Altis (though will have to wait for Altis figures for this month). But Accord and Civic selling in same numbers cannot be good for Civic.

Will have to see how much CRV sells after Fortuner's arrival. Toyota commands the same premium as Honda.

Originally Posted by coolboy007

So Fiat has strengthened their sales this month, i thought they will fall compared to prev month.

Fiat July sales = 2474

Fiat Aug sales = 2782

An increase of 300 in a month looks impressive for Fiat. Can it be due the coming 'Shardh' thing?

[Angad_kalra]

The BMW-Mercedes war in India: I came across this interesting article on ibnlive.com which talks about the fight between Mercedes and BMW and their future expansion plans in terms of dealerships. It also says that BMW will launch the Z4 by September. Thereare two pages in this article.Forbes India: The BMW-Mercedes war in India : Page 2

[coolboy007]

Originally Posted by asr245

Will have to see how much CRV sells after Fortuner's arrival. Toyota commands the same premium as Honda.

Well i think between CRV and Fortuner its not a tough choice. The no of booking fortuner has got shows how much customer like it. Its a head on between Altis/Civic and Crv/Fortuner and i see Toyota winning, reliability and customer service of Toyota is as good as a Honda.

An increase of 300 in a month looks impressive for Fiat. Can it be due the coming 'Shardh' thing?

Maybe, dont know about other mfrs but Honda recorded a 4% increase vis-a-vis prev month whereas Fiat recorded 12% increase vis-a-vis July.
Seems City affected overall Honda sales, 700 units less than prev
month.

Jazz is where it was.
Accord and Civic also fell whereas CRV sales jumped to 77 from 30 last month.

[vasudeva]

Originally Posted by diabloo

Hardcore Š fan .

So Accord is taken out by Superb. Pity there is none to challenge Civic, CRV, ANHC to pile the cutomers misery. Where is Fabia ?

Civic, though an excellent car (since my closest friend bought it) is now in its 26th straight month of yoy decline, that is from Jul 2007. All of you have access to the monthly sales figs. Can you see any other model achieving such a feat on a continuous basis.

More concern for Civic is the magnitude of the decline, which is consistently between 40-60% yoy over the last 14 months. That means it sells 4-6 this year for every 10 sold a year ago.

Look at City. In the 32 mths from Jan 2007, it has perhaps posted yoy declines in 20 months. Can you provide some examples of other car models achieving that kind of performance.

Although people are still willing to pay a premium for a Honda, clearly more people than not (in these times) do not see the benefit of paying this premium when costs of production have clearly declined over the last 1 year, as has the rate of increase of incomes.

[ACM]

Originally Posted by diabloo

Hardcore Š fan .

So Accord is taken out by Superb. Pity there is none to challenge Civic, CRV, ANHC to pile the cutomers misery. Where is Fabia ?

Am not a S fan - especially considering the problems its given me, but am balanced and neutral and give credit where due.

the Superb is indeed taken out by the Superb.

The Civic by the Altis in a much bigger way

The ANHC faces the Jazz from the same stable as well as the Linea and though doing well has gone down in numbers.

Jazz being a new car is doing below par numbers by honda standards and pricing of the Jazz and the ANHC seems to be the culpit.

Fabia we all possibly do not even consider in the reconning - atleast untill they do a relaunch with local manufacturing and much better pricing.

[vasudeva]

Originally Posted by vasudeva

Civic, though an excellent car (since my closest friend bought it) is now in its 26th straight month of yoy decline, that is from Jul 2007. All of you have access to the monthly sales figs. Can you see any other model achieving such a feat on a continuous basis.

Going through the last 4 year figs from Jan 2006 onwards, there is one car that has beaten the Civic in consecutive yoy declines. That is the Aveo which has posted 28 straight months of declines from March 2007 to June 2009. That performance was broken in July 2009, and so Civic has 2 more months as a heir before it can claim the crown from Aveo.

Other notables that are keeping Civic company (either straight consecutive declines or huge percentage of declines for 31 mths from 1/07-7/09) -

1. Maruti 800: 27/31 mth of declines.
2. Fusion: 12 mths of straight declines from 8/08.
3. Fabia: 8 straight declines from 12/08
4. HM 4-4.5 m: 28/31 mth of declines
5. Logan: 15 straight mth of declines
6. Optra: 14 straight mth of declines
7. Corolla: 16/20 mth of declines from 1/07-8/08, 2/11 declines from 9/08-7/09. Total: 18/31 declines

Pardon me as I have not posted bigger segment cars or UVs. However, I do not think such declines on a consistent basis would be there. Anyway, if someone can do that, please do so. I have run out of time.

[asr245]

Originally Posted by coolboy007

Its a head on between Altis/Civic and Crv/Fortuner and i see Toyota winning, reliability and customer service of Toyota is as good as a Honda.

Actually from what I have heard, Toyota's A.S.S. is quite better than Honda's atleast in Gurgaon. And one such source was a Honda A.S.S. engineer who used to be be a Toyota A.S.S. He advised my dad to go for the Corolla instead of the Civic!

[vasudeva]

Small correction in the above post: since I was comparing till 7/09 (8/09 figures not yet out), till then Civic had 25 straight declines, and was 3 mths shy of Aveo's record of 28 mths (3/07 to 6/09). Aveo posted a gain in 7/09 and so the metre is set to 0 again.

On the other hand, the model/segment that holds the present record of months of straight yoy increases is

Maruti 4-4.5 m (Sx4/Dzire): 27 mths still unbroken from 5/07 onwards. This beats its compacts record of 26 mths from 1/06-2/08.
Will post the entire list tomorrow.

[vasudeva]

Originally Posted by vasudeva

Will post the entire list tomorrow.

As promised, I am now posting the year on year growth for all segments for all months from 1/06 to 7/09. Refer sheet yoy2

NA: means not applicable. This can be seen by comparing from Fig. sheet. This usually means either the numerator or denominator or both are not a valid no. (eg 0).

The cells in red highlighted means a decline or a negative %. The conclusions were already posted yesterday, even if they were not exhaustive. What people should also see is the number of reds in recent months, which can give an idea about the cars success and can help in negotiating purchase prices. An indicative list of flops from 1/07-7/09 is presented. As a value judgement, I have considered >70% of mths or 21/31 declines as a flop (see List 1). They have spent most of their existence in a period of decline.

Of course, there were some cars which meet this criteria, but most of their declines were earlier and they are showing growth in recent mths. So these were flops before but not flops now. Thus An indicative list of flops in recent months (I have considered 12 mths till 7/09). This list cries out for either cut or yank.

List 1 (Long term certified flops)
800, Zen Estilo (?, since Suzuki does not break out nos.),Fusion, Aveo, HM (some models in 4-4.5 m), Logan, Optra, Civic, Corolla, Fabia (short term flop), Camry, Sonata. No UVs considered.

Please note Corolla has escaped from this list, while Octavia/Laura are on their way to becoming long-term flops. Indica was flopping but has shown recovery in recent mths.

List 2 (Recent Flops/Declines)- most of last 12 mths in uninterrupted slumber
800, Fusion, Logan, HM (4-4.5 m), Aveo, Logan, Optra, Civic, Fabia, Camry, Sonata, Octavia/Laura. In UVs: Endy,Tavera,Tucson, Innova. Only Xylo seems to be a success. UV segment has been harder hit by the recession (think call centres and the recent travails of the IT industry).

Feel free to add, delete to this list; or also free to be offended or gratified.

[Seeler_Rebeiro]

Hi Vasudeva, Sorry for asking a dumb question, but I thought Aug sales should get reported in Sept, correct ? Why are we still looking at July sales?

I do not know whether to be gratified or offended, but the Palio (Petrol or MJD) did not seem to have made it to your list. I own a Palio BTW and I know its numbers are nothing to be proud of.

[Seeler_Rebeiro]

Oops, sorry ...Noticed you have put in Aug figures wherever available.

[vasudeva]

A point to consider is whether Honda Civic will inherit the crown currently with Aveo of posting the largest successive monthly yoy declines. Till 8/09, it was at 26 compared with the Aveo's record of 28 but broken now. So Civic has 2 mths to be spared this honour.

Positives are forthcoming new Civic which should definitely boost sales. However, a big negative is the number for 9/08 and 10/08 which Civic must beat if has to remain below 28.

Civic sold 231 in 8/09.
To remain at 26, it must exceed 672 (9/08 no) in 9/09. That seems unlikely, so Civic will perhaps go to 27.
However, there is a ray of hope. To remain at 27, it must exceed 422 (10/08) no in 10/09. That seems likely because of festive season and new Civic.

So perhaps Civic has a good chance of letting the crown remain with Aveo.

On a personal note, I would sincerely love more competition in all segments, since market competition is the best check on prices and the best incentive for innovation. Because Civic was selling so well, I got a great price on Corolla in 3/07. Conversely, Fortuner customers cannot expect any discount. In fact remember the pre-competition days of the 1990s when Maruti could get away with anything.

[vasudeva]

Originally Posted by Seeler_Rebeiro

I do not know whether to be gratified or offended, but the Palio (Petrol or MJD) did not seem to have made it to your list. I own a Palio BTW and I know its numbers are nothing to be proud of.

I may be able to offend some people and perhaps get away with it, but I would rather not stir the Fiat constituency!!!.