July 2009 Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

[vasudeva]

Have posted the July 2009 sales figures here:

GTO is perhaps not here, so you should pardon the inferior analysis posted this month.
Yoy means 7/09 over 7/08; mom: 7/09 over 6/09.

Overall sales increased at a very high rate of 29% yoy in 7/09. Although part of this accounted for by budget expectations related postponement in 6/09, nevertheless the growth is still high. Even in 6/09, growth was 8.3%.

Growth is primarily very high in compact, but all segments have seen post-budget related recovery (people were waiting for the budget).

Nano `sold’ 2475 in 7/09. Looks like a supply problem, as Tata produced 2000 Nanos in 7/09. 800 keeps on sinking and it could die long before the planned euthanasia in 2016.

Punto managed around 1600-1700 in 7/09. Sales much lower than production (2044) in 7/09, so perhaps Punto has not taken off as Fiat would have liked. Remember this is a compact car. Jazz also has lost a lot perhaps because of the price/benefits mismatch.
Fabia continues to decline on a yoy though mom, it gained 88%.
All cars in mid-size doing well except for the usual suspects (Tata and Hyundai) who are getting creamed by Dzire/Swift/other numerous Suzuki extensions and variations.

Fiat Linea continues to lead in the 4.5m+ segment. Altis is gaining a lot and if only it a diesel. Look at Civic figures (<300 now). Perhaps Honda’s product lines are encroaching on each other, and the consumer is feeling confused about the price/performance quotient. Why pay +3-4 lakhs for Civic when you get 90% of the performance and 90% of metal. Octavia sinks again. It seems to be on cash support now, as is Optra (which has gained as some suckers traded in their Corsa/Astra for more of the same GM medicine). Note the Jetta figs of 215. VW has kindly condescended to share their figures with official industry associations. Compare 215 with other industry players.

In 4.7m+ segment, Superb is now the leader beating Accord. Camry is now in single digits and a 5+ lakh price cut can easily put it into double digits (the additional customer being yours truly).

BPO/taxi business seems to have recovered marginally. However, most of the gains are accruing to M&M Xylo. Tata losing a lot here.

[mjothi]

Ha, here comes Vasudev. We were eagerly wating for this only. Tks again my friend.

[amtak]

Jazz is down to 1k. Punto+Palio is at 1800 units, and GM still is marching on. Bravo!

[vasudeva]

Originally Posted by amtak

GM still is marching on. Bravo!

A 15% yoy decline for GM is hardly progress, considering that overall sales increased 29% yoy.
Even in Spark segment, GM declined 15% as market increased 41%. Expect more discounts here in August, as GM continues its practice of overproduction (4142 produced in 7/09, sold 3295).
At least Aveo is matched in production and sales.
But GM's scheme of new junk for old junk has not worked as only 181 Optra sold but 305 produced. Can we expect Corsa exchange price to double now as a celebration of GM's emergence from bankruptcy or 11 yrs in India or their MD's wife giving birth to a baby or....

[nurni76]

Finally the cat is out of the bag. Thanks Vasudev for this information. What is interesting to note is that July has been a very good month for auto sales with both MOM growth and YOY growth

Maruti has again significantly upped the ante with an impressive 38% YOY growth in the compact segment and an astounding 51.5% in the mid size. Fiat has managed to improve its position marginally MOM with Punto at around 1700 nos. Linea has seen a drop to 850 Nos which is the lowest in this year since launch. Hyundai again is a strong second with impressive performance in compact but a degrowth YOY in the mid segment. JAzz I suspect will settle around 1000 which means performing below Honda's target but good news is that ANHC has picked up its volumes. Toyota has hit back at the Skodas by Beating the combo of Octavia and Laura. However, Superb has performed superbly to be the segment leader with Accord closely behind.

Overall looks like the recession is over but still not out I guess (Atleast sensex has been miserable over the last 3 days).

[amit]

There was some talk of 8,000 Xylo's being sold last month. The MPV section doesn't show M&M sales and UV segment shows 6,747 units for M&M.

What about i20? Has the CRDi given additional volumes? I believe the sales are clubbed with the Santro and i20 so there really is no way of knowing exactly how many i20's are moving.

Linea is sinking. Look at monthly sales. From a high to 1,600 units in March, sales are now down to 850. June sales were 911 while July sales are at 850. Is it because customer's switched to Punto? Considering Fiat's reputation in India, they should target 40% of City sales for Linea. That means they should be doing 1200-1300 units monthly. Anything less then that spells trouble.

Total Palio and Punto sales are at 1,840. Palio does about 200 units on an average so Punto is about 1,600 units. Again, considering Fiat's reputation in India, they should target about 50% of i20 sales for the Punto. This means about 1250-1400 units. For a start that seems okay although I feel in the long run anything less then 2,000 units/month will be disaster.

See Honda Jazz and City sales. Seems like last month people waited and probably opted for the Jazz over City. Jazz did 2,032 and City did 2,351 in June. In July, Jazz is down to 1,032 while City zoomed to 3,268 units. Looks like people are opting for the sedan 'for slightly more money' rather then buying an expensive hatchback.

[diffsoft]

1. VW's Jetta at 215 is doing pretty well for the kind of dealer coverage VW has.

2. Skoda's flash of leadership glory in the Executive segment seems to have evaporated with a 29% decline vs last month and 37% decline vs year ago. Fabia at 369 units is almost a rounding off error in the compact segment.

[diffsoft]

Originally Posted by vasudeva

Camry is now in single digits and a 5+ lakh price cut can easily put it into double digits (the additional customer being yours truly)

Congrats Vasudeva, some pics / reviews please!

[harry10]

Originally Posted by diffsoft

Congrats Vasudeva, some pics / reviews please!

I think he meant if there is a 5 lac cut he will be buying it himself
Can we get i20 crdi figures separately for july?

[madhukar_n]

mid size the number of cars that increased for maruti was 3000 vehicles.(50% mom)
thats the largest % increase for them recently.

fait linea is 850. that is also reducing every month. for punto we need to see how the numbers count up for august. 2 months maybe a too short a time. ditto for jazz.

how is i20 faring w.r.t jazz and punto ?

[vasudeva]

Linea is expectedly down after the initial hype. However, what is creditable as that Fiat has managed to put it across its better funded Japanese competitors for more than 7 months now.

i10/i20 crdi or kappa or asta or... (add variant) figs are not available, but do not expect much anyway. Why is that so??
1. look at Hyundai's sales for last 4-5 months~stagnant to declining.
2. i10/i20 crdi competes against Swift/Dzire diesels.
3. In my opinion, Honda's product line seems justified, but what is not is their pricing. Perhaps they thought they could get away with charging huge amounts for the Jazz, `better' quality or not. Honda can put out any spin, but consider Jazz+City for july 2009 with City only for say early 2009. In this case, 2<1.

Honda has definitely overestimated the demand for Jazz, notwithstanding what they put out. Some evidence for this: 1919 Jazz produced in 7/09, but only 1037 sold. Not typical of Honda to overproduce.

[diffsoft]

Originally Posted by harry10

I think he meant if there is a 5 lac cut he will be buying it himself
Can we get i20 crdi figures separately for july?

, my IQ clearly falls well short of average!

[Sunilrj]

Vasudeva thanks for the Analysis. but GTO's Master touch and expert Comments are misisng which makes the analysis a bit dry . could we please have GTO do the Honours ? its like NDTV giving election coverage without the one liners from Dr. Prannoy Roy!

[tj123]

Vasudeva, that was quite a comprehensive spread sheet, Wanted to know some model specific info.
Can you please let us know how is Swift doing compared to its new sibling the Ritz?

Has the Ritz has started really cannibalizing Swifts.

[vasudeva]

Originally Posted by tj123

Vasudeva, that was quite a comprehensive spread sheet, Wanted to know some model specific info.
Can you please let us know how is Swift doing compared to its new sibling the Ritz?

Has the Ritz has started really cannibalizing Swifts.

What you see is what you get!!!! No other data available, at least not officially.