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Old 9th September 2009, 17:58   #31
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Originally Posted by GTO View Post
Over confidence? Competition is cut-throat, so much so that even a Honda can't get away with overpricing. Toyota, in the meanwhile, priced the new Altis well + lots of features. The Innova always offered a lot of car for the money. And I do think the Fortuner is great value, even at that price.



Its the Fabia's 4.4 lakh rupee special that has led to a surge in demand. I don't believe that hatch has the potential to stick it out in the longer term.
At least Toyota realises that it is there to sell and have seen discounts based on how much it is selling. Honda worldwide does not encourage discounts and infact has lower dealer/customer incentives. That was fine earlier, but not exactly a recipe for higher sales in the present scenario.

As to how Fabia is selling >400-500 when it has not produced any Fabia in 7/2009 and 8/2009, and only 10 in 6/2009 perhaps only Skoda will know.
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Old 9th September 2009, 18:02   #32
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Utility Vehicles:


The Safari continues as a popular <10 lakh rupee SUV with about a 1,500 sales tally. Otherwise, Tata has really nothing to boast about. Its Sumo + winger sales are down to all time lows. Only 1,249 combined. Tata has focussed too much on its passenger cars, and too little on the very profitable UV segment. Even Toyota has beaten home boy Tata in large UV sales. The cheap ACE Magic (4,200 sales) is Tata's sole volume performer in the people mover segment.
The other excel sheet says that the Safari sold 777 units as compared to 3032 Scorpios sold in the same period. So not too much to boast about there either for Tata.
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Old 9th September 2009, 18:03   #33
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I find Ford being aggressive these days with their Ikon and Fiesta models. They are consistently adding features, doing cosmetic enhancements all the while retaining the same prices. Monthly offers like free insurance, accessories, etc is also working in their favour.
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Old 9th September 2009, 18:10   #34
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Just a thought about the entire i20 positioning strategy.

Maybe introducing the cheapest variant first and then the more expensive variants was a good move. Even though the fully loaded Diesel variant is pretty pricey it really isn't seen as an expensive car unlike the Fabia. People weren't as schocked with i20 pricing as they were with Fabia prices. The fact that the i20 sells about 3000 units show that people are willing to pay more for a premium hatch unlke what we were predicting. Maybe the trick was to ease people into the segment instead of shocking them like Skoda did.

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As to how Fabia is selling >400-500 when it has not produced any Fabia in 7/2009 and 8/2009, and only 10 in 6/2009 perhaps only Skoda will know.

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Stock clearance sale, you bet.
Inventory costs will surely hit Skoda if they have to find a place to store 1500 Fabias. The management made a huge blunder predicting sales.

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Old 9th September 2009, 19:01   #35
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Inventory costs will surely hit Skoda if they have to find a place to store 1500 Fabias. The management made a huge blunder predicting sales.

.
Inventory has a cost if there is inventory. If you go though the Fabia production and sales, it would seem that for whole of 2009, there was very little production. Their total production for 2009 lags hugely behind sales.
So one of this figure may not be correctly reported. That means
1 imports to match the numbers
2 sales over-statement.

I could not match the production and sales. This is from a company that launched the Fabia in 1/2008 but reported sales of 752 in 12/2007!!!. Only the Czechs have the know how for this.

Last edited by vasudeva : 9th September 2009 at 19:04.
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Old 9th September 2009, 19:09   #36
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Originally Posted by vasudeva View Post
Honda worldwide does not encourage discounts and infact has lower dealer/customer incentives.
Marked difference in the way that Honda & Toyota function. Even abroad, I have rarely seen discounts & incentives from Honda.

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That was fine earlier, but not exactly a recipe for higher sales in the present scenario.
Well, if the product is priced right to start with, then why discount? This is where the Jazz especially has reached the end of the road. It needs those 2,000 car / month volumes, yet Honda will be terribly reluctant to discount. More features for the same price seems to be the only way out. But then, those that bought in the first 3 months will feel shortchanged.

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The other excel sheet says that the Safari sold 777 units as compared to 3032 Scorpios sold in the same period.
I have double checked the official data and for category "(a) : No. of seats including driver not exceeding 7 ( M1 (B1)", the Safari reads "1508" units sold.

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Originally Posted by rajivn View Post
I find Ford being aggressive these days with their Ikon and Fiesta models. They are consistently adding features, doing cosmetic enhancements all the while retaining the same prices. Monthly offers like free insurance, accessories, etc is also working in their favour.
Aggressive they have always been. The question is not only about sales, but also profit. How much money can you make from selling a car that was originally 8 lakhs, for 6? I'm sure there is a margin though we can presume it will be wafer-thin. Plus, monthly specials do nothing for the brand or its resale value in the market.

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The fact that the i20 sells about 3000 units show that people are willing to pay more for a premium hatch unlke what we were predicting.
True. I remained amazed by the i20's market performance.
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Old 9th September 2009, 19:19   #37
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Originally Posted by vasudeva View Post
Inventory has a cost if there is inventory. If you go though the Fabia production and sales, it would seem that for whole of 2009, there was very little production. Their total production for 2009 lags hugely behind sales.
So one of this figure may not be correctly reported. That means
1 imports to match the numbers
2 sales over-statement.

I could not match the production and sales. This is from a company that launched the Fabia in 1/2008 but reported sales of 752 in 12/2007!!!. Only the Czechs have the know how for this.
I'm confused. I thought the Fabia was selling about 500 units a month without producing any which I assumed meant that they were selling old stock.
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Old 9th September 2009, 19:31   #38
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This is what I mean by Fabia numbers not matching up. Their first year was 2007-08. So opening stock should have been zero. These are Skoda's production and sales numbers specifically for Fabia. Opening stock for 2007-08 start 4/2007 is 0.

2007-08 2008-09 Apr-Aug 2009
Opening stock 0 3 587
Production 2661 6385 150
Sales (domestic+exports) 2658 5801 1720
Closing stock 3 587 -983

What this means is that right now, Fabia should have a negative stock of 983!!!. Stock should be positive (at least per my understanding).Somewhere, Skoda's numbers are not correct. One of these has to be correct for stocks to be 0.
1. Opening stock of 983 on 1/4/07.
2. Production is understated by 983
3. Sales are overstated by 983.

The number 983 has to come to 0. Even that means no dealer inventory. So the above misstatement could be even larger.
All accountants: is this analysis in order???

On Honda: it also does not encourage fleet/rental sales since it hurts resale and image. Different matter that in India, diesel is favoured by these people. But even where petrol dominates (US), very low fleet/rental sales by Honda (I think less than 4-5% for Honda, 8-9% for Toyota, and huge double digits for others notably American and Korean). Honda and Toyota nos are in this range in US and could be higher/lower. Checked for 2006-07 (haven't checked since).

ON GM: people/GM are raving about Cruze. The product looks good in the photos as did Aveo, Optra, Corsa. Every GM product has hope from GM that this will turn the corner. However, from my experience of following GM since their entry into India, their product sells for a few mths after launch/upgrade, but then goes into deep discounting, with discounts increasing by 25-50K on a regular basis every 3-6 mths as sales move up post discount, and then decline again. GM simply does not seem to have the brand equity or loyalty so as to enable stable pricing.

Corolla seems to have recovered from its low days of 2006-07 and 2007-08 when sales plunged to 6K per annum from around 10K per annum in 2003-04 and 2004-05. 2008-09 sales were 8K and this year annualised sales are 8.4K so far.

Last edited by vasudeva : 9th September 2009 at 19:49.
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Old 9th September 2009, 19:48   #39
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I have never read any of those sales figures and analysis thread before in detail. This one is really interesting.

A separate section (Car sales analysis) for this would be easy for tracking as I guess this would be on continual basis

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Utility Vehicles:
Mahindra is on one heck of a trip, its commanding grip over the UV market segment stronger with 11,443 utility vehicles sold. The Bolero & Xylo are the strongest contributors to this growth.
Any approximate break ups on how Bolero and Xylo have fared individually. This is more to get the Xylo numbers. And how about Scorpio... where does it gets fit
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Old 9th September 2009, 20:19   #40
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Really good and concise analysis. I eagerly wait for it every month. I wish Logan sales were higher (I have one :-)).
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Old 9th September 2009, 20:50   #41
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Great Analysis again. The industry seems to moving up slowly but steadily.

OT: I have been in China over the last 10 days and I am simply amazed by the number of brands here. We have a long way to go to catch them. VW, Audi are perhaps the largest selling cars here. GM (Buick) also is very huge. Some of the brands that we see in India also selling here in China: Swift, SX4 (though hatch - I see a lot of these across China), New Honda city (less), Honda Fit (Jazz), Wide bodied wagon R, Aveo, Elantra to name a few. I See Lambhorghinis, Ferraris, Maseratis across Shanghai and Beijing. Common India I want these cars on Indian roads

Last edited by nurni76 : 9th September 2009 at 20:58.
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Old 9th September 2009, 22:18   #42
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just out of sheer curiosity GTO and Vasudeva how exactly do you procure
sales & production figures?

anyways great job, keep it up.
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Old 10th September 2009, 09:04   #43
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Originally Posted by aviral2122 View Post
just out of sheer curiosity GTO and Vasudeva how exactly do you procure
sales & production figures?

anyways great job, keep it up.
As they say, do you only want mangoes or want to know in which district they were grown.
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Old 10th September 2009, 10:01   #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Surprise View Post
A separate section (Car sales analysis) for this would be easy for tracking as I guess this would be on continual basis
You can always use our precise search functionality!

Quote:
Any approximate break ups on how Bolero and Xylo have fared individually. This is more to get the Xylo numbers. And how about Scorpio... where does it gets fit
According to Karpusv's superb excel sheet (from the model specific sales thread),

Bolero = 5166
Xylo = 2002
Scorpio = 3032

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I wish Logan sales were higher (I have one :-)).
Hey, don't sweat. The Logan is a robust sedan and will serve you well. Only problem was Mahindra-Renault's over optimistic pricing (relative to other cheap sedans like the Indigo).
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Old 10th September 2009, 10:26   #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vasudeva View Post

As to how Fabia is selling >400-500 when it has not produced any Fabia in 7/2009 and 8/2009, and only 10 in 6/2009 perhaps only Skoda will know.
There was a report in Sep 2009 Autocar anniversary issue that Skoda has started getting the Fabia manufactured at the new VW plant from Aug - can this account for the discripancy.

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Originally Posted by khanak View Post
The other excel sheet says that the Safari sold 777 units as compared to 3032 Scorpios sold in the same period. So not too much to boast about there either for Tata.
Safari is a segment (read Rs. 2L) above the Scorpio so sales are bound to be lesser, All Safaris are bought for self usage, but a good % of the Scorpio is bought for Tourist / Taxi usage.

Quote:
Originally Posted by vasudeva View Post
Inventory has a cost if there is inventory. If you go though the Fabia production and sales, it would seem that for whole of 2009, there was very little production. Their total production for 2009 lags hugely behind sales.
So one of this figure may not be correctly reported. That means
1 imports to match the numbers
2 sales over-statement.

I could not match the production and sales. This is from a company that launched the Fabia in 1/2008 but reported sales of 752 in 12/2007!!!. Only the Czechs have the know how for this.
As mentioned by me earlier the figures at your end need a recheck, the latest autocar report start of manufacuring of skoda fabia at the new VW plant in the month of Aug. - this could explain the gap???

Quote:
Originally Posted by vasudeva View Post
This is what I mean by Fabia numbers not matching up. Their first year was 2007-08. So opening stock should have been zero. These are Skoda's production and sales numbers specifically for Fabia. Opening stock for 2007-08 start 4/2007 is 0.

2007-08 2008-09 Apr-Aug 2009
Opening stock 0 3 587
Production 2661 6385 150
Sales (domestic+exports) 2658 5801 1720
Closing stock 3 587 -983

What this means is that right now, Fabia should have a negative stock of 983!!!. Stock should be positive (at least per my understanding).Somewhere, Skoda's numbers are not correct. One of these has to be correct for stocks to be 0.
1. Opening stock of 983 on 1/4/07.
2. Production is understated by 983
3. Sales are overstated by 983.

The number 983 has to come to 0. Even that means no dealer inventory. So the above misstatement could be even larger.
All accountants: is this analysis in order???
Vasudeva pls do check out for VW mfg numbers in Aug to account for Skoda shortfall.

Laura was similarly launched in Jan/Feb 2006 yet the first lot including mine was manufactured in Dec 2005 and possibly sold to the dealers right then maybe you would be aware form your statistics - but thats not important but the latest fabia shortfall is.
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