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Old 22nd July 2010, 22:37   #61
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Originally Posted by aaggoswami View Post

So after 500 bookings, Toyota will once again shutdown the bookings. Toyota is planning to keep max 7,000 backlog. If I am not wrong, it was Toyota who pioneered the Toyota Production System for efficient manufacturing. Now Toyota itself is not able to build cars enough for Indian market. I think that for a manufacturer as big as Toyota, they could have planned and anticipated better. Toyota is known for good market research and placements of its products in the market, so why with fortuner they have such huge waiting list. More than 6 months backlog is way too high in present times when the technology has evolved.
TQM is about quality, not speed. They actually stop production to signal a problem, unlike GM who would keep the line running and fix problems after a car comes out of production. Not booking a car when they can not deliver is good business ethics.
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Old 22nd July 2010, 22:49   #62
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Originally Posted by vivekiny2k View Post
TQM is about quality, not speed. They actually stop production to signal a problem, unlike GM who would keep the line running and fix problems after a car comes out of production. Not booking a car when they can not deliver is good business ethics.
I am not sure which way is GM, but as far as Nummi goes, there were serious allegations on both GM and Toyota, but that is another story.

Something about TPS from Wikipedia :

Quote:
Goals

The main objectives of the TPS are to design out overburden (muri) and inconsistency (mura), and to eliminate waste (muda). The most significant effects on process value delivery are achieved by designing a process capable of delivering the required results smoothly; by designing out "mura" (inconsistency). It is also crucial to ensure that the process is as flexible as necessary without stress or "muri" (overburden) since this generates "muda" (waste). Finally the tactical improvements of waste reduction or the elimination of muda are very valuable. There are seven kinds of muda that are addressed in the TPS:
  1. over-production
  2. motion (of operator or machine)
  3. waiting (of operator or machine)
  4. conveyance
  5. processing itself
  6. inventory (raw material)
  7. correction (rework and scrap)
I think that factors of production are involved in here. I had read many online articles and even a couple of chapters from book on Toyota Production System. All of the material I have read suggested that production in involved in the system, thats why the original name Toyota Production System. IIRC, one of the derivatives is Just in Time production.

On the other hand, all cars from Toyota met with success except the Camry. All diesels till date ( Altis D being exception as it came out just not ) from Toyota have met with very good market response. Why in case of Fortuner they are not able to gauge the market response ?
After the initial market response, within 6 months Toyota should have brought a solution. Clearly its easier said than done, but there is some amount of " Taken for Granted " attitude from Toyota on this matter. Can Toyota afford to have such a long waiting period for any SUV in US ?
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Old 23rd July 2010, 08:56   #63
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Originally Posted by aaggoswami View Post

Something about TPS from Wikipedia :
you do realize you are discussing something that was developed between 1948 and 1975? That was before I was born

and wondering why toyota is not able to meet the demands in 2010?
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Old 23rd July 2010, 09:30   #64
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Booked a Black yersterday in Bhopal. Paid booking amount of 1L by cheque. Since Bhopal is a 'C' category dealership the waiting time for a white / silver is 8 to 9 months. For Black and Grey it was 5 to 6 months.
Went for the Black.
But this closing of bookings on 20th / 21st is making me a bit nervous. I hope the dealer is not fooling me.
Do they give a booking number once it enters into TOYOTA's sytem ? The dealer did mention about it. If yes then how long after i have booked do i get that number. Atleast i will be sure that I am in que .
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Old 23rd July 2010, 12:46   #65
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Typed a long post and then clicked on the back button rather than the post reply button.

So here goes again - a shorter version.

We keep hearing that Toyota is not doing sufficent to match the delivering to the booking due to the extended 6 months + lead time.

I somehow feel that it may actually be a practical strategy:

1) Toyota is already exceeding the production capacity to the extent ot 20% excess. i.e. working at 120% of installed capacity for Altis, Innova & Fortuner. There are posts that have matched the PR mentioned installed capacity with the shipment numbers per month to arrive at this conclusion.

2) An Innova or Altis customer will not wait as there are other alternatives in those segments which the customer would shift to but in the case of the Fortuner they may not actually be loosing too many numbers. The combined number for the fortuner segment excluding the fortuner but including all competetors like Endy and captiva are less than 40% of the numbers that fortuner is doing month on month. I guess a lot of those who choose the alternative bands would have done so anyways (fortuner does not have an auto. They probably are not loosing too many bookings to the competitors inspite of the lead time. Possibly 5% of their customer are not prepared to wait.

3) Infact the aura that the 6 month lead time creats probably helps the fortuner brand and boosts sales further, we all have agreed from time to time that the vehicle though good is not such that it should command this kind of a lead time. I probably helps toyota plan for production even better and yet keep people interested.

4) The customer suffers yes and that is a given casulty in this, but the Indian buyer is looking at the Fortuner as a lifestyle vehicle, and for making a statement, it is not the most comfy MUV (Innova itself is better in that aspect.) and most dont ever go off road. Yes the customer has to plan better and wait a bit but most likely all those who want a fortuner today either already have one or have already booked one.
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Old 3rd August 2010, 19:33   #66
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An update. Fortuner Bookings halted again.

Source : Toyota halts Fortuner bookings in India, to reopen next January

Article :

Quote:
NEW DELHI: With the order backlog crossing 6,000 units, the world's largest carmaker Toyota has stopped taking bookings for its latest sports utility vehicle, Fortuner, in India.

The booking process was suspended within just a month of the company resuming the process.

Toyota, which is present in India through a joint venture with the Kirloskar Group, had earlier suspended the booking process from January 31, 2010, because of a backlog of orders, but reopened it again last month.

"Bookings for the Fortuner were reopened between the 1st and 31st of July, which got the company an additional 3,004 bookings, taking the total number of (remaining) customer orders to over 6,056," Toyota Kirloskar Motor (TKM) said.

The company claimed that the backlog will be cleared by the end of this year, and bookings would reopen again in January 2011.

Earlier, TKM Deputy Managing Director (Marketing) Sandeep Singh had said that deliveries for new orders would start in October and end in December 2010.

At the time of reopening the bookings last month, the company already had an order backlog of about 4,000 vehicles.

Meanwhile, TKM has increased the production of the SUV to over 1,000 units per month. At the time of the launch, the company was producing 500 units of the Fortuner.

The company had launched the premium mid-sized SUV in August 2009. It is currently available at Rs 19.35 lakh
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Old 4th August 2010, 13:07   #67
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Originally Posted by ACM View Post
Typed a long post and then clicked on the back button rather than the post reply button.
2) An Innova or Altis customer will not wait as there are other alternatives in those segments which the customer would shift to but in the case of the Fortuner they may not actually be loosing too many numbers. The combined number for the fortuner segment excluding the fortuner but including all competetors like Endy and captiva are less than 40% of the numbers that fortuner is doing month on month. I guess a lot of those who choose the alternative bands would have done so anyways (fortuner does not have an auto. They probably are not loosing too many bookings to the competitors inspite of the lead time. Possibly 5% of their customer are not prepared to wait.
Well this is some food for thought for me. Are you telling that the production line for the Altis and Innova are same like the Fortuner, Isnt Fortuner a chasis based product, while the Altis a monocoque and not sure about Innova.

That being the case dont think the production lines can be shared between a chasis based product and a monocoque.

Quote:
Originally Posted by aaggoswami View Post
An update. Fortuner Bookings halted again.
Source : Toyota halts Fortuner bookings in India, to reopen next January
This is what I would term as utter disregard for the indian customers. Toyota can get away now, but ultimately we have seen that manufacturers with such mentality would get hit for sure.

Last edited by xingamazon : 4th August 2010 at 13:08.
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Old 4th August 2010, 14:05   #68
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Originally Posted by xingamazon View Post
Well this is some food for thought for me. Are you telling that the production line for the Altis and Innova are same like the Fortuner, Isnt Fortuner a chasis based product, while the Altis a monocoque and not sure about Innova.
That being the case dont think the production lines can be shared between a chasis based product and a monocoque.
You are right, Altis is Monocoque while Innova and Fortuner both are chassis based products. It is the Innova and fortuner which compete with each other for space on the line, while Altis is a seperate line / process flow, and will compete in future with the etios. The combined Innova and Fortuner numbers are limited. The company though did not give out line wise capacity limits but only mentioned the limits for the entire plant in it's earlier press release.
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Old 4th August 2010, 16:04   #69
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Originally Posted by xingamazon
This is what I would term as utter disregard for the indian customers. Toyota can get away now, but ultimately we have seen that manufacturers with such mentality would get hit for sure.
No, a "good car" can have a waiting period. And it makes it even more desirable.

Taking the Swift for example, the diesel swift was launched in Jan 2007.
3 and a half years later, it still has a waiting period (~2 months now) and fetches an excellent price at resale.
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Old 4th August 2010, 16:46   #70
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Please see my replies in bold

Quote:
Originally Posted by xingamazon View Post
Well this is some food for thought for me. Are you telling that the production line for the Altis and Innova are same like the Fortuner, Isnt Fortuner a chasis based product, while the Altis a monocoque and not sure about Innova.

Rightly said Altis is monocoque and the innova/fortuner is ladder on chasis type vehicles. However currently are manufactured in the same plant and on the same assembly line. A flexible assembly line that Toyota has at the Bangalore Factory. The Altis assembly line will eventually move out to the second plant and free up the space for the UVs

That being the case dont think the production lines can be shared between a chasis based product and a monocoque.

Not necessarily. Toyota is doing that right from the qualis and corolla production started together. I have visited the plant 3 times and have witnessed the same in person.


This is what I would term as utter disregard for the indian customers. Toyota can get away now, but ultimately we have seen that manufacturers with such mentality would get hit for sure.
Why is this disregard for the indian customer?

If you really aware of the situation at the current plant, they have a capacity constraint. Their annual capacity is about 70000 units. Innova accounts for an average of 4500 units a month (54000 units per annum), corolla about 800-900 units a month (10000 units per annum). The remaining is what is left for Fortuner. I bet Toyota would be foolish enough to reduce the production of Innova which is their bread and butter model. This situation will ease up once the Corolla assembly moves to the second plant.

It would be really great if some time is taken out to really understand the situation and then come with some harsh statements. Hope you take it in the right sense.
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Old 4th August 2010, 18:40   #71
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For Innova they have some strong competition, for Fortuner, there is hardly any competition so from a business perspective it makes sense to limit production of Fortuner rather than Innova or Corrolla.


@xingamazonhassomebeefwithtoyota: I don't think they are doing this to screw the Indian consumer, but rather due to capacity constraints and larger than anticipated demand. Who would have thought there would be six month back log for the Fortuner. There have been other companies that have lauched 20 lakh SUVs without this much demand so the company you hate has launched a product which has struck a cord with the Indian Consumer. BTW, this will be the case with Corrolla 1.4 as well.
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Old 4th August 2010, 18:56   #72
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Toyota Fortuner will have competition if tata Aria is launched as planned by End of this year. If it is priced at 16 lacs on road for the top model with all wheel drive, It will put a dent on Toyota if not damage.
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Old 4th August 2010, 19:53   #73
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Fortuner caters to the topmost portion of the pyramid. The demand curve for Fortuner will look like a spike, then a small plateau, then a decline and then a plateau (say in a couple of years) once the market for Fortuner buyers gets saturated, and demand stabilizes. How many people are going up the financial ladder every year to be able to afford a Fortuner (the incremental demand for Fortuner once the initial demand gets met)? And out of that, how many will prefer a Fortuner? Toyota needs to keep Indian demographic shifts and future demand curve in mind before making capital investments and making permanent changes to production operations.

I feel that the production mix changes they have made are somewhat reversible, given that the current Fortuner frenzy will come down to 400-500 (say?) after a couple of years. Also, if they have an investment opportunity cost, they should invest more on creating capacity + service infrastructure for Etios rather than increasing capacity for SUVs or MUVs.

I have booked and am waiting for my Fortuner. And cribbing about waiting. But if I put on my dispassionate thinking hat, then I can understand why from Toyota management's point of view, the current situation makes a lot of sense.

Last edited by nilanjanray : 4th August 2010 at 19:58.
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Old 4th August 2010, 21:14   #74
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Originally Posted by scopriobharath View Post
Toyota Fortuner will have competition if tata Aria is launched as planned by End of this year. If it is priced at 16 lacs on road for the top model with all wheel drive, It will put a dent on Toyota if not damage.
They need to target the Innova rather than being over-optimistic by gunning at Fortuner.
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Old 4th August 2010, 21:50   #75
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Originally Posted by .anshuman View Post
They need to target the Innova rather than being over-optimistic by gunning at Fortuner.
I agree, it should take on Innova as it looks like an MUV, but why i thought it might target Fortuner is that It has all wheel drive and 6 airbags, whereas Innova is only a 2WD Vehicle and I really doubt if Innova would bring an all wheel drive, eventhough XYLO has/will launch the 4WD XYLO.

In my best experience they will not bring in AWD even if Aria is launched as it will hit Fortuner.

Thoughts please

Last edited by scopriobharath : 4th August 2010 at 21:57.
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