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Old 9th July 2010, 16:34   #151
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Originally Posted by xingamazon View Post
With the Swift and Swift Dzire raking a waiting period of around 6-7 months, I dont think we would see any effect at all.

I mean if you actually take this into factor, what is being delivered now is for bookings done 6 months ago. Which would mean this would not take into account the new launches i.e. Figo and Polo's impact on the Suzuki's sales.

Actual effect of these new launches will only be reflected by Aug/ Sept sales. Till then Maruti would surely see good figures. But Ritz since it doesnt have that big a waiting period is taking a hit.

This is my assumption, thats why I am not going to judge the impact of new launches until I see the August sales figures.
This is the most weird logic i have come across. Congrats buddy. That would simply mean even if maruti has extra capacity to produce vehicles it will still cater only to the orders taken six month back.


There is this big Myth created by all maruti dealers and sales guys alike that there is a six month waiting period. If you talk to real marketing guys within maruti they would tell you except the swift and dzire there is no waiting period in the first place and even for these two cars waiting would at max be around 1 month or so.

In fact if waiting period is the case maruti could very easily cover the loss of sales on other cars with big increase in swift/dzire's sales in the same month and still report the same sales number as previous month. but that has never be the case. In fact loss of sales in some cars are getting covered by sales in EEco for last few months.
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Old 9th July 2010, 20:38   #152
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This is the most weird logic i have come across. Congrats buddy. That would simply mean even if maruti has extra capacity to produce vehicles it will still cater only to the orders taken six month back.


There is this big Myth created by all maruti dealers and sales guys alike that there is a six month waiting period. If you talk to real marketing guys within maruti they would tell you except the swift and dzire there is no waiting period in the first place and even for these two cars waiting would at max be around 1 month or so.

In fact if waiting period is the case maruti could very easily cover the loss of sales on other cars with big increase in swift/dzire's sales in the same month and still report the same sales number as previous month. but that has never be the case. In fact loss of sales in some cars are getting covered by sales in EEco for last few months.
By the way, in case if you had read my message, I have mentioned only about Swift and Dzire, dont remember talking about others being in waiting list.

But in the end of the day, I frankly dint get what you wanted to say with so many sentences that you wrote. Are you telling its right or wrong.

Note one thing, keep looking at figures of August and September we will come back to this comment then.

Last edited by GTO : 13th July 2010 at 14:42. Reason: Removing crude comments
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Old 9th July 2010, 21:27   #153
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xingamazon View Post
With the Swift and Swift Dzire raking a waiting period of around 6-7 months, I dont think we would see any effect at all.

I mean if you actually take this into factor, what is being delivered now is for bookings done 6 months ago. Which would mean this would not take into account the new launches i.e. Figo and Polo's impact on the Suzuki's sales.

Actual effect of these new launches will only be reflected by Aug/ Sept sales. Till then Maruti would surely see good figures. But Ritz since it doesnt have that big a waiting period is taking a hit.

This is my assumption, thats why I am not going to judge the impact of new launches until I see the August sales figures.
Xingy,

Atleast in Bangalore Swift is available in 1 month, SP called me and told this 2 weeks back and DZire also few colors are available in a month. Dont know about other cities so atleast the June numbers should be ok for Swift and same should happen in Aug. Lets see.
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Old 9th July 2010, 23:17   #154
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Sales figures of any month - do they reflect the bookings made or deliveries made for that month? Or the invoicing at mfgr end?
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Old 9th July 2010, 23:58   #155
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Are you telling its right or wrong.

Note one thing, keep looking at figures of August and September we will come back to this comment then.
My whole point was " Maruti has been Faking the 6 Months waiting period on swift/dzire for way too long" and looks false. Just see the quote below. As far as August September are concnerned maruti will feel more heat this time than ever.

Figo, Beat, Polo, Manza all have been eating away market shares of maruti in last 6-8 months. If only someone can pull out YoY market share of maruti in Hatch segment they would figure it out(without Echo and Omni)

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Xingy,

Atleast in Bangalore Swift is available in 1 month, SP called me and told this 2 weeks back and DZire also few colors are available in a month. Dont know about other cities so atleast the June numbers should be ok for Swift and same should happen in Aug. Lets see.
Point got validated.

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Originally Posted by sanjayc View Post
Sales figures of any month - do they reflect the bookings made or deliveries made for that month? Or the invoicing at mfgr end?
None of the above really. Actually this sales reflect only the cars transferred to Dealership from the manufacturers. So not much links with actual purchase by customers.

It is standard practice by all OEs to keep pushing out cars irrespective of demand. This creates stocks at dealership levels in Lean months while these stocks gets dissolved in good months i.e. festivals.

Last edited by anu21v : 10th July 2010 at 00:17.
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Old 10th July 2010, 01:11   #156
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Originally Posted by anu21v View Post
My whole point was " Maruti has been Faking the 6 Months waiting period on swift/dzire for way too long" and looks false. Just see the quote below. As far as August September are concnerned maruti will feel more heat this time than ever.

Figo, Beat, Polo, Manza all have been eating away market shares of maruti in last 6-8 months. If only someone can pull out YoY market share of maruti in Hatch segment they would figure it out(without Echo and Omni)
Completely agree. This link will validate your point.

Rivals outpace Maruti - Hindustan Times
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Old 10th July 2010, 08:57   #157
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Quote:
Originally Posted by anu21v View Post
My whole point was " Maruti has been Faking the 6 Months waiting period on swift/dzire for way too long" and looks false. Just see the quote below. As far as August September are concnerned maruti will feel more heat this time than ever.
Let me actually try to reword what I intended to tell. I agree the waiting period now is less than 6 months, but thats not what I was telling.

I was meaning people who have got delivered Swift and Dzire during this mnoth would have invariable booked it 4-5 months before. At that time the choices for these people would have been limited. But people who book now (who will anyway receive it one month hence) are having right amount of choice. Thats why I said report one month hence would reflect the right competitive figures.

Not sure if I got my point across right this time.
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Old 10th July 2010, 12:01   #158
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Default Chennai - Indias Detroit

Off topic, mods, Please move to the right topic or delete if already discussed.
The wall street journal report describes Chennai as Indias Detroit..
India's Detroit - Chennai
Quote:
The metropolis of about five million people is booming as scores of international car makers and suppliers have set up shop. Ford Motor Co., Hyundai Motor Co, Nissan Motor Co., Renault SA, Daimler AG and BMW AG all have converged here.

They are spending billions of dollars to make Chennai one of the world's biggest hubs of small cars for export as well as for increasingly affluent Indians. Soon, the city will turn out close to 1.5 million vehicles a year, more than any one U.S. state made last year.

Last edited by teamveevee : 10th July 2010 at 12:05.
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Old 10th July 2010, 18:17   #159
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Originally Posted by xingamazon View Post
Let me actually try to reword what I intended to tell. I agree the waiting period now is less than 6 months, but thats not what I was telling.

I was meaning people who have got delivered Swift and Dzire during this mnoth would have invariable booked it 4-5 months before. At that time the choices for these people would have been limited. But people who book now (who will anyway receive it one month hence) are having right amount of choice. Thats why I said report one month hence would reflect the right competitive figures.

Not sure if I got my point across right this time.
We got you buddy

The only thing to notice would be; even if someone has booked a car in a time when these new cars were not available, one can always cancel its bookings and go for these new cars.

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Originally Posted by airbender View Post
Completely agree. This link will validate your point.

Rivals outpace Maruti - Hindustan Times
Thanks for posting the link Airbender. A 6% drop in Market share is too much i would say. That simply means just because Maruti has been growing all through, its loss in market share went unnoticed under the high sales numbers. Also its competitors are growing much too faster than maruti.

Last edited by anu21v : 10th July 2010 at 18:22. Reason: Addition
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Old 11th July 2010, 01:17   #160
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6% loss will be quite big in revenue numbers, Maruti is heading towards trouble if things don't improve in next 2-3 months
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Old 11th July 2010, 10:35   #161
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Off topic, mods, Please move to the right topic or delete if already discussed.
The wall street journal report describes Chennai as Indias Detroit..
India's Detroit - Chennai
I think it is relevant. At this rate, detroit should be called as chennai of USA

Overall I think Indian and Chinese AUTO industry are growing and we are seeing chinese slowly making inroads into india in commercial and passenger vehicles. Why can't a TATA, AL, Mahindra, etc. sell cars in china?

I have heard about TATA setting up Landrover assembly unit in china and as well as Mahindra buying a tractor company but heard nothing about TATA wanting to sell NANO in china and even if they did, i am not sure if they would like to export. It is about time Indian govt. start giving some benefits to automobile exporters. This industry is huge in job creation.
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Old 11th July 2010, 10:48   #162
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I have heard about TATA setting up Landrover assembly unit in china and as well as Mahindra buying a tractor company but heard nothing about TATA wanting to sell NANO in china and even if they did, i am not sure if they would like to export. It is about time Indian govt. start giving some benefits to automobile exporters. This industry is huge in job creation.
One reason Tata's nano would not be interested in Chinese market is that it wont sell much.

A visit to China will make you know why, you will be amazed by the amount of huge cars that one would find on chinese cities. Its full of Audis, BMW, VW and lots of Fords. and I am not talking any hatches all are proper sedans.

When there is no requirement for any premium sedans at all in China, dont think they will need Nanos, moreover the cars are pretty cheap in China, so cost factor is not gonna work too,.
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Old 11th July 2010, 23:41   #163
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One reason Tata's nano would not be interested in Chinese market is that it wont sell much.

A visit to China will make you know why, you will be amazed by the amount of huge cars that one would find on chinese cities. Its full of Audis, BMW, VW and lots of Fords. and I am not talking any hatches all are proper sedans.

When there is no requirement for any premium sedans at all in China, dont think they will need Nanos, moreover the cars are pretty cheap in China, so cost factor is not gonna work too,.
Small cars like chery QQ also sell in very large numbers in china. With a price of $7000 average in china combined with good mileage and govt. incentives for small high miles per gallon cars in china, TATA NANO would definitely stand a chance.

I don't think any new car is as inexpensive as a NANO in china. And what ever cost advantage that NANO has already would work in its favor. If you remember, china imports RAW IRON from India. So, the cost advantage would be in our side for a quite a while.
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Old 12th July 2010, 10:07   #164
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Does any body have Jaguar - Land Rover sales data. How are they doing in India.
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Old 12th July 2010, 11:17   #165
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Small cars like chery QQ also sell in very large numbers in china. With a price of $7000 average in china combined with good mileage and govt. incentives for small high miles per gallon cars in china, TATA NANO would definitely stand a chance.

I don't think any new car is as inexpensive as a NANO in china. And what ever cost advantage that NANO has already would work in its favor. If you remember, china imports RAW IRON from India. So, the cost advantage would be in our side for a quite a while.
ya ya, China imports RAW Iron ore from India (courtesy bellary mining mafia), they manufacture Iron and sell it back to us
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