Indian Car Sales Figures and Analysis

[vasudeva]

If City is 5.8K, it is an all time high. One of those buyers was my elder brother. Again, what pushed me to recommend him towards NHC was
1. higher FE than all petrols (does not want a diesel). Most important for him
2. ugly but what about SX4 and verna. They make the City look like a Merc.
3. Honda's much touted reliability.
4. Innova was out because of price and size (his and mine first choice).

If you look at the City's record, it suffers for a while till other new models are launched, but it soon comes back strongly because of points 1 and 3. Worldwide only Toyota and to some extent Nissan have the ability to strike a permanent dent in Honda's sales trends.

[vasudeva]

Originally Posted by diabloo

This number is a death blow to all NHC critics. Who can beat this number?
Did somebody say SX4? SX4+Esteem number is at a humble 2939, including exports .

SX4 and Esteem exports. Not even to Myanmar. Of the total car (not MUVs) exports of 147717 during Apr-Dec 2007, a total of 119911 were for segments upto 4000 mm. In bigger segments, Hyundai exports a small proportion of Accent/verna. Fiesta used to be exported but that has declined sharply. As for SX4/Esteem, a grand total of 50 were exported during Apr-Dec 07, or 5.5 per month.

Hyundai exported 88105 of Santro/Getz/i10 during Apr-Dec 07. Other major exports were: 11074 of M800, 26085 of Swift/Wagon R segment by Maruti, 5800 Indica, 3677 Indigo/Marina, 1968 of Ikon/Fiesta. The rest were in single or double figures only for 9 months.

[vasudeva]

vasudeva - DOMESTIC SALES

Jan 2005-Jan 2008 sales are here.

Main points:
1. Month on month (mom) growth has been good at 28%, but what is more important is that year on year (yoy) growth has gone down to 8.5%, caused by M800, and higher priced cars.
2. Maruti's total share in 1/08 is the lowest in close to 2 yrs.
3. i10 is gaining.
4. City's highest ever monthly since the mid 1990s.
5. Indica and Indigo have gained.
6. Verna/Accent plodding along. I see many new Accents so it may be making a comeback. The ugly Verna is getting it real good.
7. Optra has tanked sharply. From May 2008, GM's loud 40-50% growth press releases will go. Unless they sell Spark at 2 lakhs. Time for a limited edition Optra/SRV (50 pcs of each)
8. Civic and Corolla are up mom but down yoy. Skoda down in both respects.
9. Fabia-lack of supply or lack of demand.
10. Limited Edition Aveo sales are even more limited than regular edition.
11. 1 Elantra of 2006 production was sold in Jan 2008. Who is the guy and did that person buy it at M800 price.
12. Skoda Superb managed superby by selling 7 in 1/08.
12. Accord is losing (perhaps people are waiting), and surprise the higher priced Camry is selling more. If you go to see Punjab ministers in Jalandhar/Chandigarh (I have relatives from my wife's side there), many go around in a Camry.
13. Scorpio, endeavour, and safari have rocketed, Vitara is limping, Innova is steady. BPO downturn has affected white Tavera.

[vasudeva]

Compare year on year growth for successive months, and you can see that the overall slowdown is now well and truly on. 2 successive months of single digit growth.

[hondadude]

Vasudeva,

Thanks for sharing the details. I have a couple of nits/questions

1. Under the Utility Vehicles section, the first subsection is for passengers < 7. Shouldn't it be passengers <= 7? Similarly the second subsection should be for passengers 8-9.

2. Is Safari the only vehicle that is counted in the first subsection of Utility Vehicles for Tata ? If so, there seems to be a massive upsurge in sales.

[neoonwheels]

FIAT Palio sales for FY 07-08 is around 2700. I remember TATA - FIAT telling about 3000 annual target. Seems they are achieving it easily.. And Palio sales is settled on an average around 300 units per month.. Lets see if they achieve 500 units per month of Palio MJD..

[finneyp]

Originally Posted by neoonwheels

And Palio sales is settled on an average around 300 units per month.. Lets see if they achieve 500 units per month of Palio MJD..

My gut feel says Palio MJD will sell more that 500 units/month, hope Fiat-Tata can aggresively market Palio MJD and further improve their Service levels.

[diabloo]

Jan 2008 - Mid-size (4001-4500 mm) shootout

NHC-------------5,801
Accent+Verna----3,156*
SX4+Esteem------2,939
Indigo------------2,901*
Logan------------2,301*
Fiesta------------2,047*
Cedia+Ambassador--947*
Aveo---------------389

Originally Posted by vasudeva

vasudeva - DOMESTIC SALES

* includes diesel variants

[vasudeva]

I have suspicion that Skoda is fudging. First they reported Fabia sales in Dec 07 when it was on sale only from Jan 08. Dealer sales are hardly sales. Perhaps Skoda had to show some growth to its Teutonic bosses (European year ends in Dec) and so the sudden fudging.

Second, Superb was plodding at around 30-50, when suddenly 152 Superb sold in Dec. 07 Next month: Superb down to 7.

Accord sales going down seems strange at first sight. Accord was leading till Nov 07, when Honda cut production in Dec and Jan. Prodn of 0 in 12/07, and 6 in 1/08. Perhaps production line is now gearing up for the new Accord.

Fabia production in 1/08 is also down over 12/07. Sales are also down. Of course, Fabia sales were reported for 12/07 but who bought it.

[vasudeva]

Why is City beating all comers inspite of having no features that SX4 cannot give at a lower price.

There are cars that excite and then there are cars that sell because consumers can be sure that they will be faithful. That is what Toyota and Honda are.

In early 1977, Isao Makino, then president of Toyota Motor Sales US, joined US heads of other automakers in writing a column for a publication called Automotive Design and Development. What was the outlook for the year?

Makino wrote: Since the first Toyota automobile was imported in the United States in 1958, Toyota has studied the needs and trends of the American market. We have learned the American car buyer is quite astute when he or she considers a purchase. While the prospective owner is always interested in the features and selling price, we have found that cost of ownership is actually the basic consideration.

That is true for most and explains their success. Americans pay a premium for a Camry or Accord, just as Indians do for a City because they believe it won't break, will be cheap to repair, and will be worth a lot at resale, thus reducing cost of ownership.

In the same issue, there was a column signed by Henry Ford II and Lee Iacocca of Ford Motor Co. Their column whined about federal standards for clean air and fuel economy, predicting incorrectly that unless the government relented on higher FE standards, sales would tank by 1985.

What did Makino of Toyota have to say about this: `Our front-runner in the 1977 model year will be the 1.2-litre Corolla that has achieved 49 miles per gallon highway and 36 mpg city driving during EPA simulated tests.

Now cut to the second oil spike of 1979-80, and to 2007, and no wonder that rising oil prices have lit fire on Toyota and Honda's US and worldwide sales because of superior fuel economy. In 2007, inspite of a new car launched on 9-2-08, Corolla/matrix ranked 3rd in car sales in the US market. The first 2, also Japs, Camry and Accord. Civic was at 4th, Impala at 5th, and Altima at 6th.

[tsk1979]

Well said Vasudeva.
An important fact is the majority of buyers in sub 10L segment are not enthusiasts.
They want a car which will take them from A to B spending a minimal amount of fuel, in reasonable comfort and without breaking down.
They don't care too hoots about whether it will understeer, oversteer or overturn when they take a turn a 100kmph, nor do they care whether their car will will the 1.3L stock saloon racing car challenge.
However if the car meets the mileage challenge, they will buy it.

On the latest figures, they are an eyeopener.
1. Diesel sells, and Verna/Accent sales are the proof
2. Indigo is beating logan after initial hype has died down. Sub 6L is VFM space, everything else be damned
3. People trust honda
4. GM is as clueless as ever, and haven't been able to feel the pulse of the market, esp the VFM market

[vasudeva]

Originally Posted by tsk1979

1. Diesel sells, and Verna/Accent sales are the proof
2. Indigo is beating logan after initial hype has died down. Sub 6L is VFM space, everything else be damned
3. People trust honda
4. GM is as clueless as ever, and haven't been able to feel the pulse of the market, esp the VFM market

For a poor country like India, the car must meet the mileage challenge. Not only is it good on the purse, but also good for the environment. For that matter, given equal cars in other respects, a higher mileage car almost always wins. For people who say that the US consumers could not be bothered about another 20 cents to a gallon, they are, as reflected in the SUV sales, and the fact that recent surveys have shown that high gas prices is a top concern in US consumers' minds.

I have nothing against diesel, but IMHO, the Govt is bowing too much to the leftists and not increasing both petrol and diesel prices. Diesel cars sells so much not only because of its intrinsically better FE, but also because it is priced at such a low ratio to petrol (2/3rd). In very few countries, and certainly not in the West, is this ratio so low: in fact, close to 0.9-1.1. Subsidise commercial transport, but why subsidise private petrol and diesel car owners. Pretty soon if things go the way they are or oil prices tank, the oil companies will have no money to buy oil that fills our cars. The Saudis are not going to sell oil in exchange for Indian Government bonds.

If you have read economics, artificially low prices encourage waste and create distortions in production and consumption.

[neoonwheels]

Originally Posted by diabloo

Jan 2008 - Mid-size (4001-4500 mm) shootout

Aveo---------------389

Now I dont feel palio stile sales is less.... Yahooooooo Palio has got company of Aveo

[RakishRam]

interesting numbers vasudeva, thanks.
any idea what is going on with 3-series BMW? I though December sales of 14 was one off month. But looks like there are some serious issues, 56 3-series sold against 231 C-class or am I wrong?

[rangaraj]

Originally Posted by RakishRam

interesting numbers vasudeva, thanks.
any idea what is going on with 3-series BMW? I though December sales of 14 was one off month. But looks like there are some serious issues, 56 3-series sold against 231 C-class or am I wrong?

the new C-Class seems to be working!