Indian Car Sales Figures and Analysis

[karanraheja]

Originally Posted by SkyWalker

Seriously! I wonder who is doing the market research for GM in India - just by adding an MJD to UVA & Aveo i bet they can see the sales rate of these cars more than triple!

get the pricing & positioning done right the first time - like Maruti has done with Swift and DeZire

Yup. Wonder what is talking so long for the GM to launch the MJD in its range.
GM should learn to launch cars at the right time in India. They launch a model then they go for hibernation and come back after a long time. I think they better buck up now. They should get the new Uva hatchback and plonk 1.3MJD. Sure it ll sell in decent nos.

[TeddyBear]

MUMBAI: India carmakers may have painted a far more rosier picture of sales last month than what is the reality. Dealers of most automakers in India are stuck with a pile of unsold cars, as high interest rates and a slowdown in the economy threaten to depress sales. Dealers and bankers confirmed that the industry is pulling out all the stops to weather the downturn.

Car manufacturers may have reported flat sales last month but rising inventory levels reported by dealers belie the facts. Indian automakers who enjoyed a seven-year upswing in sales until the last fiscal on the back of rising incomes and flexible financing schemes are now offering discounts ranging between Rs 10,000 to Rs 30,000 to boost sales. This is over and above discounts offered by dealers which could range between Rs 20,000 and Rs 40,000.

“As against dealer inventory of 21 days, we now hold stocks for anywhere between are 40-60 days,” says a Mumbai-based [COLOR=blue][COLOR=blue! important][FONT=Arial][COLOR=blue! important][FONT=Arial]car [/FONT][/COLOR][COLOR=blue! important][FONT=Arial]dealer[/FONT][/COLOR][/FONT][/COLOR][/COLOR] who requested not to be named. In case of a large manufacturer, the stock pile-up has gone up to 75 days. To add to the woes, one of the small car manufacturers was forced to dump a number of vehicles in the local markets after an export order to Europe fell through.

The pile-up of stocks has forced dealers to seek additional financing of at least 20% from banks to pay manufacturers. In some cases the demand for financing has gone up by 30-35% as manufacturers have also started giving more sops to dealers to push sales. The incentives include high cash discounts for sales above a certain volume.

Domestic [COLOR=blue][COLOR=blue! important][FONT=Arial][COLOR=blue! important][FONT=Arial]car [/FONT][/COLOR][COLOR=blue! important][FONT=Arial]sales[/FONT][/COLOR][/FONT][/COLOR][/COLOR] for most of the manufacturers were flat in June. While Maruti reported flat sales at 56411 units, Tata Motors posted a negative two percent sales at 17,017 units while Korean [COLOR=blue][COLOR=blue! important][FONT=Arial][COLOR=blue! important][FONT=Arial]car [/FONT][/COLOR][COLOR=blue! important][FONT=Arial]maker[/FONT][/COLOR][/FONT][/COLOR][/COLOR] Hyundai logged a 61% growth at 18,301 units.
Source : Record stocks with dealers point to drop in car sales- Automobiles-Auto-News By Industry-News-The Economic Times
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Who had lost the export order? Hyundai? or Maruti?

[neoonwheels]

Vasudeva, have you got any info on sales figures for this month ?

[vasudeva]

Have posted car sales for 6/08 here:

vasudeva - DOMESTIC SALES

Overall sales growth is sharply down to single digits (8%).
Compact and small cars have seen very low growth. By comparison, look at the growth for bigger cars, especially premium and luxury.
Maruti , GM, Skoda, and Tata struggling in compact cars. Fiat diesel and Hyundai the only positives.
In mid size, except for Ford, Tata, and Maruti; all struggling. City now has 3 successive months of year on year declines.
In 4.5-4.7 segment, only diesel cars posting any growth. Also BMW. Civic now has 12 successive months of year on year declines. Corolla down to 257 in 6/08. Production was 168 in 6/08. So, production was less than sales. Maybe production will stop in 7/08.
Sharp rise in Accord sales has saved Honda.
GM’s base effect bubble has burst.
MUV sales remain strong especially for Tata and Toyota. Innova sold 4539 in 6/08.

[vasudeva]

I have noticed an interesting thing. Although Accord sold 844 in 6/08, this seems like a pent up demand for Accord from largely its existing customers, new customers, and conquest customers. Consider 6m2007 (Jan-Jun 07) with 6m2008 (Jan-Jun08) and Accord sales declined 19%. So did all, except for one. The real gainer in this segment is BMW 3 series which sold 802 in 6m2008, compared with 31 in 6m2007. Of course, BMW could also have gained as many Accord customers went with BMW because of Accord's unavailability.

Only time will tell if the cost of lost sales for Accord due to model changeover will be made up later.

[vinit.merchant]

Thanks Vasu for the much awaited update.
The Sales for the industry is Down, should be mainly due to Monsoon. Discounts offered are not attracting many, considering that the reduction was not so high Last Year June.
In the compact segment, Fiat is the only manufacturer for which sales show a rise. For the first time in the last 3 years, it has shown numbers of 550. Seems that Palio MJD has started doing things for FIAT for the better. Let us see how long this up trends lasts.

Hyundai has shown a 15% rise. They are pushing Ascent more than verna nowadays, Also the CNG version In Delhi might have attracted many.
Ford is showing a 90% increase MOM. Not sure which one is selling so high. Haven't seen many Fiesta's on road. Most of the chunk of increase in the Mid-Size is taken away by Ford.

Honda & Skoda are still leading with Civic & Octavia.
Toyota Corolla is on a continous Down trend. They should bring in the face lift soon to avoid further cut in Market share.

Mercedez Benz has shown almost double the sales MOM. This should be mainly on account of the Facelift C-Class.
But Accord still leads the segment with 844 nos. Way ahead of the others.

[neoonwheels]

Thanks brother for the update

[Elito11]

Honda is going down!

If we do not see a diesel CRV and really good City, a diesel option and a small car (eventually) soon Honda is going to face a tough time!

For all its popularity, the new Corolla will give civic a tough time! The only good thing going as of now is the new Accord, which again IMO isn't that great a car and once the euphoria dies down will see stabalizing of sales at much lower volumes

Elito

[GTO]

The auto industry is getting royally slaughtered due to the hike in interest rates, taxes and fuel prices. This is all the more evident in the lower price-sensitive segments. Its getting truly expensive to own a car.

- In fact, the entry level segments have witnessed a 21.5 / 14.9 % month on month decline, while the A segment alone has seen a 13.7% year on year decline. This is the most price elastic segment out there.

- If the Palio continues with the level of growth that it has been showing, it will overtake the Skoda Fabia.

- The Fabia, on the other hand, is steadily losing favour. Overpriced? Lousy engines? You bet. Another 100 Palios will give Fabia the “worst selling Indian hatch” crown.

- GM. Well, discounts and indecisive pricing just doesn’t seem to be helping them. I do think that the Spark offers fantastic value and the reason for slow sales is actually in their dealership network.

- Hyundais i10 continues to impress. Well deserved success, I say. On the other hand, surprisingly dismal performance from Maruti & Tata.

- Master act by Ford. Is the Fiesta back in the game? Ikon clubbed numbers notwithstanding, customers seem to have lapped up Fiestas like nobodys business. 1.4 petrol clearance sale? 1.4 diesel fuel efficiency? Discounts? Ditto with the Verna which seems to be steadily gaining in popularity.

- HM couldn’t sell a fridge in the desert! The Lancer & Cedia are languishing big time. Or is this due to the reported problem of limited Cedia kits?

- Logan is now down to a dismal 1300 cars!! Dzire effect? Simply an overpriced sedan that offers no luxury & frills.

- The Indigo is selling astoundingly well! Obviously the cut-price CS has proven popular. That’s a year on year 101% growth.

- The Corolla’s performance is, expectedly, stumbling in buyer anticipation of the new model. However, even pictures / rumours of the fabulous new generation Honda City doesn’t seem to have had *all the much* of an effect on the current Honda City.

- Honda Accord. Well, an astounding sales performance of 844 cars in June 2008. I have said this before and will say this again. It is the most sensible luxury car you can buy in India today. That’s a record two months in a row for the king size Honda.

- The E-Class has caught up big time with the 5 series. From a 100% difference in sales, its now down to only 9 cars. The cheaper E220 & E230 surely have a significant role here.

Consider 6m2007 (Jan-Jun 07) with 6m2008 (Jan-Jun08) and Accord sales declined 19%.

Disagree with the comparo. December to April saw absolutely no Accord supplies. In fact, March & April saw 0 units sold of the old Accord while Jan / Feb had only 46 / 9 cars from old stock.

Of course, BMW could also have gained as many Accord customers went with BMW because of Accord's unavailability.

I'd disagree with that. The popular BMW's cost near double that of the Accord. I don't think too many people with an Accord budget could bump up to the 3 series.

[vasudeva]

Originally Posted by vinit.merchant

Thanks Vasu for the much awaited update.
The Sales for the industry is Down, should be mainly due to Monsoon. Discounts offered are not attracting many, considering that the reduction was not so high Last Year June.
I

See the year on year comparison, and it should be clear that the compact segment is way down, and should remain down because of recent hikes in both fuel prices and interest rates. Look at Maruti, increase of only 0.3%. It used to have yoy increases of 20-30% till Nov 2007, but in the last 7 months, it had 1 yoy decline, and 4 yoy increases of less than 5%.

For auto industry as a whole, 2008-09 has been written off completely.

[suman]

Thanks Vasudeva; the fuel price rise has killed whatever the interest rates couldn't!

Originally Posted by Elito11

Honda is going down!

Hush! Don't say that too loudly, you may send Diabloo into deep depression - its his favorite "City of Life" that has taken the biggest hit!

[vasudeva]

Originally Posted by GTO

Disagree with the comparo. December to April saw absolutely no Accord supplies. In fact, March & April saw 0 units sold of the old Accord while Jan / Feb had only 46 / 9 cars from old stock.



I'd disagree with that. The popular BMW's cost near double that of the Accord. I don't think too many people with an Accord budget could bump up to the 3 series.

My point is that because of no production, Accord saw no sales in March and April compared with 250-300 in a normal month. Price that at 16-18 lakh a car, and Accord's June numbers are making up for that. If 400-500 per month is sustained, then that lost sale revenue will be covered. I quoted 6m2007 not to show that Accord is out of favour, but just that out of production so far has meant lost revenue. It sold 3087 in 2007, and 1443 so far in 6m2008. It should cover the balance and some growth (say 3300) of 1900 in next 6 months.

[ranc]

Vasu, I was wondering why the Audi, Nissan & VW have not started showing on this excel sheet, I am sure if BMW & Merc can do 200+ figures some of these companies might be close to it.

[phamilyman]

Interesting. I just wish that as more people buy Palio MJD and their misconceptions clear up, we can reach a suitable base whence things can shoot up drastically.

bengaluru is the city where it would happen first. Delhi is WAY behind IMHO.

PS: CS has failed in its task. CS+Indica is 30-40% lower while Indigo has doubled. Funny!!

[vasudeva]

Originally Posted by ranc

Vasu, I was wondering why the Audi, Nissan & VW have not started showing on this excel sheet, I am sure if BMW & Merc can do 200+ figures some of these companies might be close to it.

Figures for these are not published. Disclaimer: The excel sheet says domestic sales, but is not exactly. Official (industry association) data is reflected in the excel sheet. Does not account for some Lexus imported by someone, and figures for some automakers.