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Old 15th October 2016, 11:08   #1
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Default Europe: Automakers will return to bigger engines!

European's Emission crisis could see automakers scrambling to Bigger Engines in the next years to come.

Future downsizing will mean you take a smaller engine and add an electric motor to it

Why ? -Automakers are now expected to ditch their small engines because they have failed to perform well in real-world emissions tests (Fiat, Opel, and Renault have some of the worst NOx emissions among new diesels in EU)

Quote:
Renault, General Motors and VW are preparing to enlarge or scrap some of their best-selling small car engines over the next three years, the people said. Other manufacturers are expected to follow, with both diesels and gasolines affected.
Quote:
The techniques we've used to reduce engine capacities will no longer allow us to meet emissions standards
Starting next year, new models will be subjected to realistic on-the-road testing for NOx, with all cars required to comply by 2019. Fuel consumption and CO2 will follow two years later under a new global test standard.

Consequence -

-GM will not replace its current 1.2-litre diesel when the engines are updated on a new architecture arriving in 2019.

-VW is replacing its 1.4 liter three-cylinder diesel with a four-cylinder 1.6 for cars like the Polo

-Renault is planning a near-10 percent enlargement to its 1.6 liter R9M diesel

-Renault is going to scrap its 0.9-liter H4Bt gasoline engine, which in an attempt to prevent overheating, has been found to inject excess fuel and emit high levels of unburned hydrocarbons

Quote:
The tougher tests may kill diesel engines smaller than 1.5 liters and gasolines below about 1.2

VW has been far more vocal about ambitious plans announced in June to sell 2-3 million electric cars annually by 2025 - about a quarter of its current vehicle production.

So dawn of the era of a different kind is looming for which analysts predict a surge of EV and hybrids!

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Last edited by volkman10 : 15th October 2016 at 11:27.
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Old 15th October 2016, 11:25   #2
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As it is famously said, there's no replacement for displacement.

This is welcome news! Especially when we were worried about the current downsizing trend that's gripped all manufacturers! As usual, it'll be good if Euro norms quickly trickle down to our BS norms soon (pun not intended), and this downsizing hopefully is nipped in the bud.

Sincerely hoping that F1 also follows suit, and goes back at least to 2.4 L V8s ;-). Ol' Bernie Ecclestone (who wholeheartedly hates the new V6 engines) will still be at the helm, and the American owners should hopefully help inject some 'fun' back in to the sport!

Hybrids are most welcome, and are no doubt the way forward due to efficiency and eco friendliness. But, the large engines need to return and stay, especially with four cylinders or above

Peace,

Regards,
Abhishek
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Old 15th October 2016, 12:46   #3
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Whoosh. That sounds good. There really is no replacement for displacement. Those three-pot mills were really getting on my nerves. I can't stand the thrum which sounds so off and unsettling. Even if you're not driving it yourself. This fiasco was really all blown over the top.

The auto makers will have to find a more credible way of really doing the earth any good I guess.....

Last edited by pixantz : 15th October 2016 at 12:47.
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Old 15th October 2016, 13:17   #4
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Default re: Europe: Automakers will return to bigger engines!

The issue is NOT technology via downsizing (on the emissions front) but cost: it may be/likely-is uneconomical to deploy the cleaner-emissions tech on the current or future small petrol or especially diesel engines AND have the cars be cost-competitive in Europe, the graveyard of profitability of the automakers: hardly any firm makes money in Europe, europe-made, over this or the previous business cycle.

This transition will take many years, and will not happen as easily as this article claims. Different firms will be able to negotiate these new emisisons regs and tests in different ways and degrees: depending on cost, above all.

FCA, for example, will partly focus on CNG (where they're Europe-wide leaders, especially in vans and uv-s, including in Germany) as well as the new not-made-europe-but-Brazil new FireFly small engines (1l, 1.3x litre, na and turboed, 2 valve per cyclinder and 4-valve, high compression ratios, part-use-of the Miller cycle rather the Otto one etc) even as they transition towards mild 48v hybrids on the higher-priced models, etc.

There will be many ways to skin this cat, through to say 2012+, depending above all on costs/margins/scale, etc. If another car market recession hits, well then i'd say there'll be 'regulatory forebearance' too, given the political clout at EU level of the esp German car firms?
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Old 15th October 2016, 13:43   #5
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Default re: Europe: Automakers will return to bigger engines!

Quote:
Originally Posted by desdemona View Post
it may be/likely-is uneconomical to deploy the cleaner-emissions tech on the current or future small petrol or especially diesel engines AND have the cars be cost-competitive in Europe, the graveyard of profitability of the automakers: hardly any firm makes money in Europe, europe-made, over this or the previous business cycle
Im sure your statement is contextual but Porsche was the most profitable auto maker in Q4 2015 or Q1 2016, if I recall correctly. The VW group, US scandal aside, is not exactly a loss making concern in its Pascar and CV operations.

And its also important to consider that a lot of the innovation on pas and CVs is driven by automakers ( and suppliers) in the EU - ie, higher R&D focus & investments. Bosch, Continental and ZF were in the 'top 5' global list of suppliers (turnover) in 2015. These arent loss making concerns either to the best of my knowledge

The point im trying to make is that there are examples within Europe of extremely successful automakers/suppliers and ones that have lost the plot

Here's a link from T-bhp that might make you reconsider your stance ...
http://www.team-bhp.com/forum/indian...ml#post4075124 (Q1 2016: Thanks to Jaguar-Land Rover, Tata Motors profits triple!)

Last edited by Zed : 15th October 2016 at 13:45. Reason: added T-bhp link
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Old 15th October 2016, 14:51   #6
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Default re: Europe: Automakers will return to bigger engines!

This whole engine downsizing without significant reduction in the load (weight of the car) is bound to backfire. I am surprised these auto companies thought emission tests will always be done under laboratory conditions because anyone with common sense would know that 1.2L engine will pollute like mad while pulling a 2 ton car.

This whole shift to emission tests under real-world driving conditions is a great move. Will stop all the rubbish technology they are putting into ICEs. Future belongs to smart hybrids and soon fully EVs.

Last edited by aah78 : 17th October 2016 at 18:34. Reason: Post edited for better readability.
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Old 15th October 2016, 20:08   #7
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Default re: Europe: Automakers will return to bigger engines!

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Originally Posted by Zed View Post
Im sure your statement is contextual but Porsche was the most profitable auto maker in Q4 2015 or Q1 2016, if I recall
What was meant was: the mass market brands, europe made. Ford, Opel/Vauxhall/GM, Fiat, peugeot-Citroen as well as the VW brand have all struggled in this business cycle as well as the previous (pre-2008 global financial crisis) one to make decent net-margins, net of costs of capital, taxes etc. In fact Ford has after many years just made its first profit in europe just this year, the VW brand had the barest of net margins (reportedly as low as 2-3% EVEN before dieselgate), etc, etc.

The story with the giant european autocomponent firms (ZF, Bosch, Continental, Haldex, Faurecia, Magneti Marelli....) is different: they've grown and profited even as the mass-market oem-s have struggled for profitability, some teetering on the edge of bankruptcy in 2008-2010, needing government bailouts, chinese investors etc.

Also different are the high-margin, 'luxury' and sportscar Europe-madebrands: Porsche, Audi, Mercedes, BMW and Ferrari. These brands have the netmargins to implement emissions compliance new-expensive tech to their ICEs (scr treatment etc.) Though Audi is actually not very good-faring, net-margins wise, rather than in gross profits terms.

The move to (mild)hybridisation is unavoidable for the smaller-car, mass market brands because the costs of implementing that tech is in some cases for some models/segments, is just too expensive on their small engines, esp the diesels: the market just will not bear the added costs/prices!

JLR and MarutiS have global-industry-best net-margins: 14.xx% and well-above, unmatched by any of the german firms/brands (other than maybe Porsche?) or even by the mighty giant Toyota, though similar to Ferrari maybe?

For India, the enforcement of cost-adding clean-emissions tech to mass market cars is very do-able and economical imo (unlike in europe where it may financially imperil the mass market brands' already puny net-margins like Peugeot, Renault, Ford, Fiat and Opel, VW): the 50% dominant share holder, MarutiS, already has world-beating net-margins! They can absorb it easily. It just needs enforcement by the government and the regulators.

Last edited by desdemona : 15th October 2016 at 20:09. Reason: spelling
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Old 15th October 2016, 20:21   #8
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A new global standard for real-world testing of fuel economy and CO2 output will reportedly come into force from 2021.

Real-world emissions testing rig
Name:  toyota_corolla_aaaemissionstest_01.jpg
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Quote:
Volkswagen was able to cheat its way past regulators by using a defeat device to detect conditions typical of a laboratory emissions test, and then enabling more stringent emissions controls for the duration of the test.

Current small capacity turbo engines from other automakers are able to legally pass lab emissions tests because the tests require the cars to be driven at abnormally low speeds and at relatively moderate temperatures.
In the real world, though, these small engines often have hot and overworked turbos, and when in this state they produce far less favourable results.

Quote:
recent real-world testing has shown that these small diesel engines can produce up to 15 times the permitted levels of NOx when their turbochargers start running hot.

In similar situations, downsized turbocharged petrol engines guzzle more gas, and emit more fine particulate matter and carbon monoxide than they are meant to.
While European car makers begin upsizing their engines, itís said that vehicles sold primarily in North America and China still have room to benefit from downsizing, as engine capacities in those markets are generally larger.( Including India where we will see the downsized engines taking centre stage till the real world testing regulations kick in)

Source

Netherlands start testing vehicles to the RDW-emission test.

23 models examined the test are passed without that ' irregularities '. Suzuki Swift is one of them!

Quote:
That means that NOx emissions from these vehicles during the field studies are not significantly different from the emission which is measured when the vehicle is on the roller type-approval test got its official bank. Regardless of the speed that the vehicle, the duration of the test, the environmental factors such as outdoor temperature-these cars exhibit similar picture with regard to the emissions of nitrogen oxides.
The next few months, the European Commission will capture at what situations that legally and is not allowed. Also starting from 2017 the Real Driving Emissions-test. This, the RDW, in the same study, determined to be a more real picture of the actual emissions than now used the New European Driving Cycle.

Source

Last edited by GTO : 17th October 2016 at 10:59. Reason: Merging back to back posts
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Old 16th October 2016, 13:49   #9
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Default re: Europe: Automakers will return to bigger engines!

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Originally Posted by volkman10 View Post
Why ? -Automakers are now expected to ditch their small engines because they have failed to perform well in real-world emissions tests (Fiat, Opel, and Renault have some of the worst NOx emissions among new diesels in EU)
Conforms to what i read in an auto magazine few months ago. There was a small boxed article where Toyota said that it is hard to meet emission norms with smaller engines with performance and that is why they don't believe in small Diesel engines for passenger cars and thus not investing into it.
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Old 17th October 2016, 04:59   #10
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Default re: Europe: Automakers will return to bigger engines!

In the end it is a cost-margins-regulatory-compliance balance issue: different firms will adopt different strategies/timings depending on their cost-base, scale, available in-house r&d availability/comparative-advantage, model/sales mix in the market, etc. One can see Toyota abandon diesels altogether for example very soon, in favour of hybrids, in Europe, even for their smallest vehicles, but others to do so less fast and more selectively, etc.
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Old 17th October 2016, 08:26   #11
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Default re: Europe: Automakers will return to bigger engines!

I think stressed engines and higher compression is taking its toll. Adding electric drives would be better since it would be a natural progression towards all electric future. They could gain good experience with lots of running. Even people would not have the range anxiety thats associated with all-electrics.
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Old 17th October 2016, 12:22   #12
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Default Re: Europe: Automakers will return to bigger engines!

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Originally Posted by satanic_dude View Post
As it is famously said, there's no replacement for displacement.

This is welcome news! Especially when we were worried about the current downsizing trend that's gripped all manufacturers!
Our irony is different. It is the government policies here which has been gripped with the downsizing bug.

So even though the manufacturers have now realised that downsizing isn't the way ahead, it will take a decade before our government realises it.

Needless to say, most of these downsized technologies will be dumped here in India considering the "excise" benefit on offer.
I do hope though, that with the GST, these constraints will be abolished. But that is wishful thinking
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Old 17th October 2016, 12:37   #13
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Default Re: Europe: Automakers will return to bigger engines!

@vinit.merchant

'Downsizing', done in certain ways, remains a very good approach, with win-win-s all-round, the question in europe is one of the optimum strategy that firms should employ GIVEN the new test cycle, the elevated fuel pricing there, the very high fuel quality and octane/etc level available there, and esp GIVEN how the added compliance costs affects demand in the mass market segments in Europe, where profitability is already ultra-thin if there at all.

It is a mis-reading imo to think that downsizing benefits are somehow inapplicable-in-the-real-world elsewhere. In India, we already have tiny displacement engines: adding turbocharging to petrol engines and/or DI and/or particulate filters and/or e-variable valve lift and timing and a number of other engine design small techniques remains essential here, imo. Alongwith much-better quality fuel: more essential than anything else, one guesses?

The root-article of this thread is a europe-specific one imo, relative to their particular new cafe+regulatory and esp cost/margin market-structure, and their common driving cycles and patterns. Not translatable easily to a market like India, one would suspect?
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Old 18th October 2016, 14:28   #14
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Default Re: Europe: Automakers will return to bigger engines!

I really wish the Supreme Court and the NGT would also be abreast of these, before going on mass killing of capable yet clean engines.
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Old 18th October 2016, 17:07   #15
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Default Re: Europe: Automakers will return to bigger engines!

On stressed engines and higher pollution - If I am not mistaken I remember a Top Gear UK episode where they ran a Prius chased by a BMW 3 series.
The BMW merely kept up with the hybrid which was driven in a scrambling manner.
The hybrid ended up burning more fuel than the BMW, and thus polluted more.
Not a scientific test, but points out the fact that small engines, when strained, pollute above their lab ratings.
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