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Old 16th July 2010, 15:34   #1
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Default Emerging trends in the global automotive market

Hi guys, I want to start this thread to track emerging trends in the automotive market. Would really appreciate if you take a few moments off and put in your perspective on what could be the next big thing in the automotive industry, like automotive electronics, improvements in active safety, the east becoming auto manufacturing hub (India, China, Poland), electric vehicles being mass-market with the introduction of Nissan Leaf and stuff like that.

As usual, mods, merge this if a similar thread already exists
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Old 16th July 2010, 15:43   #2
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Two things are obvious: More direct injection, and blown petrol cars with smaller engines.
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Old 16th July 2010, 16:38   #3
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I would like to see hybrid vehicles becoming affordable.

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Old 16th July 2010, 16:48   #4
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I would say Gasoline Direct Injection which is no way different from sgiitk sir as CRDi & Di is common now
Next one is the support like the onstar being provided with most GM cars.
Integrated music system is getting common
I hope soon we'll see airbags & GPS to be available on all cars irrespective of the model & variants
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Old 16th July 2010, 16:54   #5
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I do not see hybrids becoming affordable any time soon as they use ICE and DC motor(s) together. So there are two powertrains involved and as the CEO of some OEM (forgot which one) mentioned, becuase of two powertrains involved the price factor will always remain high.

What really gets me thinking is, if battery-operated vehicles, like the Reva and more conventional looking ones like the Leaf are launched in India and other emerging markets, at a competitive price, will there be any takers? Provided the state of infrastructure and the lackadiasical attitude of the government. Or for that matter, we as consumers, give away a hundred year old tried and tested technology (ICE) and switch over to something new?
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Old 16th July 2010, 16:56   #6
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I think the next big trend will be platform and component sharing/collaboration between models and companies. For example the VW Group, Mercedes Renault, Renault Nissan, Toyota Subaru and whatever other deals there maybe being discussed.
Its already happening, but i presume there will alot more to come.

Gooney -In response to your last comment. I agree costs of components for electric vehicles are high and it maybe some time before they come down. Another interesting factor is depreciation - the actual life of the batteries is approximately 4years and batteries being one of the higher cost factors these vehicles will depreciate to approximately 1/3rd their price close to that period. Autocar UK had an interesting article on this and it probably explains it a lot better than i do. I will dig it out and post it on here.

Last edited by Samir Taheer : 16th July 2010 at 17:01.
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Old 16th July 2010, 17:04   #7
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Not only platform and components but powertrain sharing will also increasingly rise. The future will be quite interesting on who focus on what technology viz, petrol or diesel and also the on what the Chinese do in terms of powertrain because they have admitted they joined the race pretty late and will not be wasting time coming up with new ICE techonology but rather "borrow" the technology.
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Old 17th July 2010, 15:52   #8
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Nice thread idea, Gooney! Here's a couple off the back of my head:

1. Engines going smaller. Direct-injection petrols + turbo-chargers swapped on.

2. The advent of electric cars that are affordable and practical. Leaving international developments aside, what's relevant to us is Mahindra's buying out Maini, Hyundais upcoming i10 electric etc.

3. Consolidation : The last 15 years have seen smaller manufacturers getting gobbled up by the larger ones, or going bankrupt. This will continue. VW, for instance, will take control of Suzuki. Mitsubishi waiting to be acquired. Honda & BMW will fight to stay independent.

4. Previously unseen features finding their way to cheap sedans & hatchbacks.

5. China making its mark. China today is where Korea was 20 years ago. Look at Hyundai today! It's amongst the most respected (and feared) brands.

6. Asia (and India) continuing to emerge as global manufacturing hubs. If any brand isn't here already, it will arrive soon.

Last edited by GTO : 17th July 2010 at 15:53.
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Old 17th July 2010, 16:57   #9
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^^
I so very agree with point number 2 & 6 above.
Particularly # 2 - that too, in a not so very distant future.

Long term - we are definately talking renewable + rechargable. Solar powered for example. That is the ONLY way for sustainance.

Additionally, traditional oil will continue to grow costlier, making it almost beyond the reach of a common man. (As if it already isnt so.)
This technology has been around (with obvious optimizations) for for tooooooooo long.

I dont however forsee a significant impact of Chinese automotives on the global front. Atleast not from a brand perspective. You may have spares / parts coming out of there - but not so sure about completely built / exported units. Many mobile players have tried without much success.

It may not be totally accurate to look at it that way, but for such consumer products - things like brand & quality perception matters a lot.

Last edited by jigbarai : 17th July 2010 at 17:02.
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Old 17th July 2010, 17:52   #10
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One thing that is already emerging is global platforms. All vehicle manufacturers will have same platform throughout the globe.
So the things like Fiesta meaning somethign in India and something in Europe will go off. People are seeing how much it makes sense to have global platform, like the Corrolla is the same throughout the world.

Chinese government will be forced to allow 100 % ownership of manufacturing units for Foreign players, no more joint ventures. Even expect Indian manufacturers to chip in and get some market share there.

Global sourcing of parts, parts of vehicle will be sourced from various parts of the world as the tax norms will be lightened. You can expect a Dell sort of format in Cars too.
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Old 19th July 2010, 12:37   #11
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Thanks GTO. And the mention of solar by jigbarai got me thinking... At present solar modules have an efficiency of ~7-8%, with max ~30% efficiency in lab conditions. Imagine what will happen once we manage to get ~60% or more efficiency from commercial photovoltaic cells!!! We might altogether skip the battery-operated electric car era!

I think the Chinese automakers will make their mark felt. Right now, not only they are busy improving their technology and buying/sourcing the best automotive technology from elsewhere, they are also very busy building up the brand image - and it is working. When Geely bought Volvo, a Geely official spokesperson said that more than acquiring the technological expertise of the Swedish OEM, they are more interested in the brand name and they want to build brand awareness about Chinese OEMs from within - making a Chinese as passionate about a BYD as she is about a Buick.
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Old 21st July 2010, 13:26   #12
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Many people over here mentioned hybrid but no one mentioned anything about alternate fuel availability.
Right now, we get petrol, diesel & CNG at the gas stations...in near future we can also expect Hydrogen, ethanol, electric charging stations too.
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Old 21st July 2010, 13:49   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wild Phoenix View Post
...in near future we can also expect Hydrogen, ethanol, electric charging stations too.
Flex-fuel (ethanol) is a stop-gap solution, infact, IMO, a ploy by America to sell corn . Anyway, jokes apart, how long will you use HUGE AMOUNTS of cultivable land and actual food products like sugarcane and corn to manufacture fuel for cars. In short, flex-fuel IS definitely not the answer.

As far as hydrogen fuel is concerned, the technology is yet nascent, in terms if fuel cell. And infrastructure and transportation costs to make hydrogen fuel refilling stations is prohibitive, at least for now. But yes, hydrogen does have a future.
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Old 21st July 2010, 13:57   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gooney View Post
Thanks GTO. And the mention of solar by jigbarai got me thinking... At present solar modules have an efficiency of ~7-8%, with max ~30% efficiency in lab conditions. Imagine what will happen once we manage to get ~60% or more efficiency from commercial photovoltaic cells!!! We might altogether skip the battery-operated electric car era!
Think more like Solar supply + Battery (recharged using solar power whenever available), instead of an electric socket. In addition - having provision of electric charging too.

(Something like Petrol + CNG/LPG these days)

You cannot bypass the traditional electric battery charging totally.
Else the car may not see the road on overcast days/seasons
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Old 21st July 2010, 13:59   #15
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I suggest that for the benefit of all, we should do a guided discussion.
This is an excellent topic.

Guided means we discuss various aspects of the market evolution topic by topic

1. Type of Fuel (Petrol, Diesel, E10, Electric, Hybrid, Dual/Triple mode)
2. Engine Technology (type, power, efficiency, etc)
3. Power Train, transmission, cruise controls
4. Body Electronics (Lighting, automatic controls, adaptive controls)
5. Comfort (HVAC, Climate controls etc)
6. Safety (ratings, safety levels, methods etc)
7. Security (RKE, PKE, Mobile controlled)
8. Entertainment (Music, Video, Satellite, Mobile TV, ICE, Rear/Front screen etc)
9. Connectivity (E-call, tracking, data, internet on the move etc)
10. Navigation (GPS, A-GPS, Remote guidance etc)
11. Other Features (everything else)
12. Usability aspects (seating, terrain, auto/manual/self driven, drive/cruise/park, etc)
13 Design
14. Accessories
15. Brands
16. Manufacturing center
17. Business Models
18. Regulations, Emission norms
19. Everything else.

this way it would easy to understand even for newbies like me.

Last edited by StarVegabond : 21st July 2010 at 14:08.
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