The official F1 grand prix prediction thread. Post all predictions here.

[mclaren1885]

Originally Posted by sridhar24

Kimi has blown his engine again! and will be in 10th place on the starting grid but a great qualifying lap from him.
Montoya can win easily from pole and alonso can get the second place easily, kimi i think has to forget about winning the title this season.

well i personally think the situation is still in favour of kimi..all that mclaren need to do is keep montoya at the head of the field and force alonso into making a mistake..in the meanwhile kimi can surge from the back and then give a good fight to fernando..all said well and done but what if kimi doesnt even make it out of turn 1 where all kind of nasty things are bound to happen and kimi is right in the middle of the pack where the meyhem usually happens..so kimi keep out of trouble at turn 1 and then take an all out attack to fernando would be my best bet...
hey aseem hope ur satisfied with JPMs position at the head of the field,but i reiterate that kimi is better than JPM and todays flying lap(with a heavier fuel load than JPM and taking nearly .2sec off him) is quiet an achievement..

[sridhar24]

The situation is completely in Renault's and Alonso's hands, they don't need to take any risks and they can push Montoya into making some mistake like the last race where he ran wide and lost 2nd place to Alonso.

[BUSA]

But Alonso is very consistant and always chasing the Mclarens in an slower car

As his car is reliable thats it.

But I don't understand why always Kimi blows his engines while it doesn't happen to Montoya's car? May be its got to do somthing with the driving style

There is nothing like that. Monty is more agressive then KIMI. Even Monty blew his engine this year once. It all depends on luck, which is in Alonsos favour. I hate to say this but Alonso is going to be the world champion this year.

Montoya into making some mistake like the last race where he ran wide and lost 2nd place to Alonso.

He had a broken diffuser, car did not turn in!

All you anti- Alonso and Pro- Limi fans, just pray that the Renault does not even go off the mark leave alone get to the chequered flag..

[aseem]

Originally Posted by mclaren1885

well i personally think the situation is still in favour of kimi..all that mclaren need to do is keep montoya at the head of the field and force alonso into making a mistake..in the meanwhile kimi can surge from the back and then give a good fight to fernando..all said well and done but what if kimi doesnt even make it out of turn 1 where all kind of nasty things are bound to happen and kimi is right in the middle of the pack where the meyhem usually happens..so kimi keep out of trouble at turn 1 and then take an all out attack to fernando would be my best bet...
hey aseem hope ur satisfied with JPMs position at the head of the field,but i reiterate that kimi is better than JPM and todays flying lap(with a heavier fuel load than JPM and taking nearly .2sec off him) is quiet an achievement..

Mc Laren I dont quite agree with you. Firstly I congratulate myself to be the only one to vote for JPM even before Kimi's blown engine. Now coming back to the point, Mc Laren are internally favoring Kimi as he is more likely to win the championship than Montoya. More time goes to his setup, and more strategy goes to execute his pit stops. Even when Montoya is leading strategy is always tailored to favor Kimi, and this has a lot to do with racism associated in a white mans sport (Its sad but true, not a single black man to race till date, our own boy Kartikeyan is being made fun off at other forums, and ppl are telling being Indian he is just fit for driving cabs in NYC). Dont agree? Read the thread below:

http://www.totalf1.com/forums/index....pic=3787&st=30

Montoya is one of those few talented people who most ppl find easy to critisize.
Kimi was no doubt faster than Montoya by an AWESOME margin of 0.2 seconds with a heavier fuel load, but do you think for one minute that Montoya didnt know Kimi wont get the pole anyways. Montoya drove sensibly as he didnt want to repeat the qualifying result of Germany where he pushed the car too much. Although he had a heavier load than Kimi and was way matching him for pace, but he lost it on the final turn. No such heroics were needed here and he did the smart thing. Kimi however needed to go full blast as his pace would mean grid position for him. If you look carefully to the stats, Montoya actually outpaced Kimi in the first and the final sector, however he was very catious through the slippery second sector and Kimi outpaced him only in the second sector.

SECTOR 1
1 10 Juan Pablo Montoya 26.107

2 5 Fernando Alonso 26.121

3 9 Kimi Räikkönen 26.161

SECTOR 2
1 9 Kimi Räikkönen 27.543

2 3 Jenson Button 27.639

3 10 Juan Pablo Montoya 27.792

SECTOR 3
1 10 Juan Pablo Montoya 27.155

2 9 Kimi Räikkönen 27.174

As you can see yourself, stats tell lot more than the final result. We will see who sets the fastest lap of the race tommorow. I think all factors favor a Montoya win barring reliability.
Mc Laren strategy has been to load Kimi for at least 10 laps more than Montoya. They would do everything possible to put Kimi up for a win, they have control over Kimi's strategy and Montoya's strategy. However they dont have control over one factor, and that is Fernando Alonso. Even if Montoya was to pit 10 laps before Kimi along with Alonso. Kimi would chip in fastest lap after fastest lap with low fuel load and make up 15 seconds. After his first pit stop he will be with in 20 seconds of Alonso and will close that gap to 10 by Alonsoz second stop. Since Montoya and Alonso will pit together Mc Laren would make sure JPM maintains his lead as they are also gunning for the championship. In any case there are two scenarios, one is that Kimi would overtake Alonso by his second stop and come behind JPM, if thats the case than I am sure team orders would come into picture and Montoya would be asked to back off (gifting Kimi the win), second being that Alonso just about manages to hold Kimi off after Kimi's second stop. If that happens JPM will cruise to victory. Barring retirements the max that Kimi can take away from Alonso is 4 points.
This is a very optimistic scenario I have painted for Kimi. A lot will depend on how much of a gap Montoya and Alonso will be able to open while Kimi is behind slower cars for 20 laps. If its a second a lap, than he will be down by 20 seconds. If its 1.5 second per second than he will be down by 30 seconds and will be able to make 15 seconds before he pits for his first stop.
Dont forget Kimi has to contend with like of MS and RS and drivers like GF in front of him who will not make life easy for him. Renault will advise Fisi to drive as slow as possible to delay Kimi's race.
I seriously hope Montoya wins, as if Kimi was not favored and team orders are not put in place, he has the pace and grid position to win. Its just that Mc Laren strategy will heavily favor Kimi.

[mclaren1885]

Originally Posted by aseem

If you look carefully to the stats, Montoya actually outpaced Kimi in the first and the final sector, however he was very catious through the slippery second sector and Kimi outpaced him only in the second sector.

SECTOR 1
1 10 Juan Pablo Montoya 26.107

2 5 Fernando Alonso 26.121

3 9 Kimi Räikkönen 26.161

SECTOR 2
1 9 Kimi Räikkönen 27.543

2 3 Jenson Button 27.639

3 10 Juan Pablo Montoya 27.792

SECTOR 3
1 10 Juan Pablo Montoya 27.155

2 9 Kimi Räikkönen 27.174


In any case there are two scenarios, one is that Kimi would overtake Alonso by his second stop and come behind JPM, if thats the case than I am sure team orders would come into picture and Montoya would be asked to back off (gifting Kimi the win), second being that Alonso just about manages to hold Kimi off after Kimi's second stop. If that happens JPM will cruise to victory. Barring retirements the max that Kimi can take away from Alonso is 4 points.

well aseem coming to the sector timings the difference u see btwn kimi and JPM is the difference in the aerodynamic setup they both had..well as far as my knowledge goes JPMs top speed was more than that of kimi so obviously he had a hold on the sector 1 and sector 3 which is by far the faster part of the circuit..JPMs car was setup for speed along the straights while kimis car had been setup to run more downforce for turns 4,5,6,7(slow compared to the rest of the track).so u see kimi bettered sector 2 timings..so both cars were setup differently depending on the drivers style(kimi chose higher downforce for sector 2 as his style is smooth and not raggid like JPM)..so comparing sector times to decide who is better is not fair..i remember minardi last year had the best straight line speed in one of the tracks are were obviously fastest car in that sector,so does it make minardi better than others.over a complete lap who is quicker is what matters and keep in mind kimi had a more heavily fuelled car..so got to give it to kimi..

secondly,knowing JPMs reputation at williams im sure he wont follow team orders may what come..he might just slow down the pace of the race so that kimi catches up,but once that job is done its everyman for himself..JPM and kimi wll then have to fight it over the track and there wont be a move over by JPM im sure..

[aseem]

Mc Laren Montoya drove sensibly and situation didnt demand that he risks going 0.2 second faster as he already knew Kimi would be penalized. Please take this into account.

Montoya has gifted Ralph Schumacher victories in Williams. Team orders are not just telling someone to back off, but clever pit strategy is also a kind of a team order. Montoya is not a second a lap slower than Kimi, so by any logic if they race without orders Kimi cant overtake Montoya by the end of the race if he is 10 grid position down.

Why should Montoya slow down to allow Kimi to catch up if he is there to race for himself? Is he crazy that he will first deliberately drive slow so that Kimi catches up, and once he does, he will start speeding!

You had also mentioned that Montoya can force Alonso in to error.... I have never seen a guy leading the race pressurizing the guy who is behind him. Give credit where its due, Alonso has a sensible head and doesnt gift away races easily.

If no team orders are put in place, no way can Kimi overtake JPM tommorow reliability apart!

[mclaren1885]

i give up!!! lets just wait for the race tomorrow and see what happens..well,may the best driver win..

[BUSA]

Firstly Montoya isnot a racer who would move over to let some one go. Last year when his strategy was shifted to ralf he got frustrated and Ron took the oppurtunity and signed him to Mclaren. Even in Silverstone he didnot slow the pace for Kimi so i doubt team orders are going to work and Ron treats both drivers equal.

[aseem]

I hope what u said Busa is true, but here is what Montoya had to say today:

Juan Pablo Montoya, McLaren (2nd, +0.176s):
“A clean and fast lap and I am pretty happy with my performance. It is good to start from the front, and I now need a trouble free run to the first corner. To get through there without problems is crucial. Unfortunately Kimi has to start from 11th, but a lot is still possible. We will give it our all to win the race and close the gap in both the Drivers’ and Constructors’ World Championship.”

What scares me is this is very unlike Montoya sound. I hope he is just trying to please his F1 boss's by saying he feels sorry for Kimi and will just fly off tommorow, but you never know what Ron has ordered him!

[mclaren1885]

Originally Posted by aseem

IUnfortunately Kimi has to start from 11th, but a lot is still possible. We will give it our all to win the race and close the gap in both the Drivers’ and Constructors’ World Championship.”

What scares me is this is very unlike Montoya sound. I hope he is just trying to please his F1 boss's by saying he feels sorry for Kimi and will just fly off tommorow, but you never know what Ron has ordered him!

i have a feeling he is just tryin to, as aseem says trying to please ron dennis..u know to keep a good raport amongst the team and also hamper the spirits of renault and fernando by saying that in the press release..nice strategy actually,give a feeling to renault they desperately want to get kimi on the top step of the podium even at the cost of JPMs victory..i somehow have a feeling that JPM wont be as obidient to team orders as rubesns is,wont be shocked if tomorrow in the press release JPM says he couldnt hear ron asking him to move over for kimi(if the situation arises) due to bad radio reception..remember its a michael schumacher trait and a very successful one too..

[aseem]

I am pretty sure if Kimi is behind him after his second stop, than Montoya would be asked to move :(

[aseem]

What happens if you see Kimi in your mirrors?

JPM:
I don't know. You tell me. I always want to try to help the team as much as I can and, you know, help Kimi if I can as well at the moment for the championship because I'm not completely out of it. It's kind of normal. I try to help the team in every way I can. In a way I really doubt it. I'm sure he's going to move up a lot but we'll see what happens. It's a long race and anything can happen. We'll see.

[merve_extreme]

forget Kimi and that ugly alonso.i want Michael Schumacher to win.Let there be rain.

But it would be better if Kimi takes the Championship than Alonso.i just hate that Flavio and Alonso(in short the whole renault team).

[BUSA]

I dont get the point!! Why would he want to impress Ron Dennis!!??

[mclaren1885]

Originally Posted by merve_extreme

But it would be better if Kimi takes the Championship than Alonso.i just hate that Flavio and Alonso(in short the whole renault team).

if my memory serves me right i think it was alonso who started to give michael a real run for his money was it spain 2003 when he finished 2nd and also won in hungary the same year..at that age, man that was tremendous and thats when the world took up notice for fernando..come on merve u got to give him credit after all where were the renault team placed the year before thats 2002 and this young bloke fernando challenges the great michael in his maiden season at renault and not to forget kimi too..u just cant say u hate renault, look at their improvement since 2003(when benetton quit)-2005..and whats more they are leading in both the championships in just two years after renault totally took over the then called benetton..took a longer time for mclaren too beat ferrari and still the best a mclaren could achieve was 2nd place in the championship after mika took a sabatical..for renault to have come so far,u got to give them credit dude!!!