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Old 24th April 2016, 18:02   #1
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Default March 2016: Two Wheeler Sales Figures and Analysis

A look at the 2 Wheeler Sales figures for March 2016. Have attempted a more detailed analysis.

March 2016: Two Wheeler Sales Figures and Analysis-mar16top20chart.jpg


March 2016: Two Wheeler Sales Figures and Analysis-mar16top20details.jpg

  • Race at the top continues to be a two horse race between the Activa and Splendor. Activa continues to maintain top position.
  • As expected dominated by the entry level 100-125cc models.
  • Exceptions are the TVS Moped which continues its strong run in the Top 5
  • Royal Enfield the only higher capacity bike in the Top 20.

March 2016: Two Wheeler Sales Figures and Analysis-mar16top20gainers.jpg

March 2016: Two Wheeler Sales Figures and Analysis-mar16top20losers.jpg

  • The Bajaj V (With elements from INS Vikrant) seems to have started pretty well. 16K units in its 2nd Month.
  • The Bajaj CT 100 CC- One of the cheapest motorbikes showing a good upward trend.
  • Mahindra Rodeo shows the biggest drop by percentage (An already poor selling model)
  • None of the top sellers in this list.
  • 2 Models from Royal Enfield is a surprise, considering the overall growth RE has been showing.



Manufacturer Level Sales Trends with Market Share and Trend Charts

March 2016: Two Wheeler Sales Figures and Analysis-mar16manufacsalestrend.jpg

March 2016: Two Wheeler Sales Figures and Analysis-mar16manufacmarketshare.jpg

March 2016: Two Wheeler Sales Figures and Analysis-mar16manufacsalestrend.chart1jpg.jpg

March 2016: Two Wheeler Sales Figures and Analysis-mar16manufacsalestrend.chart2.jpg
  • Hero Motor Corp and Honda continue the dominance at the top. The Maruti and Hyundai of the Bike world. Together account for 65% of the Market Share.
  • Honda heavily dependent on the Activa. 200,000+ units out of total sales of 350,000. 60% of Sales come from this one model. The Moto-Moped-Scooter: Honda Navi makes a slow start with 1500 units.
  • TVS and Bajaj the other two manufacturers with >100,000 sales. Yamaha and Royal Enfield round off the top 6 with ~50K units. RE's new Himalayan makes an entry in the chart with 260 units
  • Suzuki and Mahindra are the two mass market manufacturers really struggling to make an impact.



March 2016: Two Wheeler Sales Figures and Analysis-mar16segsaleschart.jpg

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  • Segment Level Analysis above. Total Two Wheeler Sales is ~1.4 million units out of which more than 1 million units come from the entry level segment. 10 times more than the 2nd placed segment which is the 150-180cc segment.
  • Only 2 models in the <100 cc segment. The TVS Pep+ and the TVS XL Moped. The Moped continues to be rural favorite.
  • The 250-500cc segment is driven primarily by Royal Enfield with the Duke 390 and CBR250 contributing.
  • Unlike the Four Wheeler Segment, where top sellers include relatively expensive cars, the Two Wheeler market is over-overwhelmingly entry level (30-60K range). Not surprising that the Nano was unable to make any impact.




Name:  Mar16TotalTwoWheelerSales.JPG
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Model Level Sales with MoM details



March 2016: Two Wheeler Sales Figures and Analysis-mar16allmodel1.jpg

March 2016: Two Wheeler Sales Figures and Analysis-mar16allmodel2.jpg

March 2016: Two Wheeler Sales Figures and Analysis-mar16allmodel3.jpg

March 2016: Two Wheeler Sales Figures and Analysis-mar16allmodel4.jpg

March 2016: Two Wheeler Sales Figures and Analysis-mar16allmodel5.jpg

March 2016: Two Wheeler Sales Figures and Analysis-mar16allmodel6.jpg

March 2016: Two Wheeler Sales Figures and Analysis-mar16allmodel7.jpg

March 2016: Two Wheeler Sales Figures and Analysis-mar16allmodel8.jpg


Sales Numbers Source: AutoPunditz

NOTE: Honda's CB Trigger is in 150-180 cc category and not in the 100-125cc as incorrectly mentioned in the table.

Last edited by Rehaan : 26th April 2016 at 19:23. Reason: Adding note as requested.
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Old 25th April 2016, 11:23   #2
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Thread moved from the Assembly Line. Thanks for sharing.

Last edited by GTO : 25th April 2016 at 11:23. Reason: Bump
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Old 25th April 2016, 15:20   #3
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Default Re: March 2016: Two Wheeler Sales Figures and Analysis

Thanks for sharing Rajeevraj. A really detailed compilation of data and insights.

Honda and Hero are really the Maruti and Hyundai of motorcycles market, but the primary differentiation is that Maruti is very aggressive in launching new products like Vitara Breeza, S-Cross, and upcoming Ignis, Hero is still banking on its old warhorses like Splendor, Passion, and HF Deluxe. In my opinion, Hero needs to expand its presence in bigger capacity segments as well and launch more competent bikes in 150cc and above 200cc segments.

Similarly, Honda also needs to expand its presence in other segments as 60% of its sales are from a single model, i.e., Activa, remove Activa from the list and Honda slips down to 4th or 5th position that the current 2nd position which it enjoys.

Both of these companies need to address the elephant in the room. This may not be a very large issue right now but it can hamper their growth plans in the long run.

Thanks.
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Old 25th April 2016, 16:49   #4
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Default Re: March 2016: Two Wheeler Sales Figures and Analysis

Great to see a detailed thread for the 2 wheeler segment!

Thank you!




For a company with 12% overall sales, Bajaj has only one entry in the top 10! Looks like Bajaj is struggling and may slip further.

Surprisingly KTM is missing in the list considering Kawasaki is featured.

Suzuki's in the 2-wheeler market is quiet the underdog with just 1.41% of overall sales considering they have been around for more than a decade.

Hero and Honda simply RULE!
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Old 25th April 2016, 17:21   #5
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Default Re: March 2016: Two Wheeler Sales Figures and Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mafia View Post
Great to see a detailed thread for the 2 wheeler segment!

Thank you!




For a company with 12% overall sales, Bajaj has only one entry in the top 10! Looks like Bajaj is struggling and may slip further.

Surprisingly KTM is missing in the list considering Kawasaki is featured.

Suzuki's in the 2-wheeler market is quiet the underdog with just 1.41% of overall sales considering they have been around for more than a decade.

Hero and Honda simply RULE!
KTM nos are included in bajaj i think. You can find the individual models of KTM in the model level sales.
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Old 25th April 2016, 18:16   #6
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Default Re: March 2016: Two Wheeler Sales Figures and Analysis

A very detailed sales figure this time. Good job Rajeevraj. Rated it a well deserved 5!
To be fair there is nothing exciting in numbers as there is absolutely nothing happening out of turn or unexpected. The usual bikes are doing the same good numbers and no new exciting vehicle shaking up the industry. Every company has at least 2-3 vehicles selling abysmally month after month and they still don't stop them. If it's Discover (100 and 150 cc) and Boxer (100 and 150 cc) for Bajaj, It's Hunk and Xtreme for Hero or it's Hayate and Slingshot for Suzuki. One gets a feeling looking at the list that you are spoilt for choices in any segment but the numbers suggest people don't want to get spoilt. They just want to play safe. One such example is Gixxer which is selling much much less than it's worth. It also looks like Bajaj although having better MOM numbers than TVS are not able to get back the coveted third place in the podium. Sad considering just a few years back they looked like giving a serious competition to Erstwhile Hero Honda.
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Old 25th April 2016, 18:31   #7
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Default Re: March 2016: Two Wheeler Sales Figures and Analysis

Hi RajeevRaj,
Thank you again for this superbly presented data.

Do you happen to have the break up of the Activa Numbers?
I mean, How many 110cc and how many 125cc models of the Activa were sold?
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Old 26th April 2016, 00:22   #8
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Default Re: March 2016: Two Wheeler Sales Figures and Analysis

Nice analysis. I had seen the sales figures earlier on autopunditz.com but you arranged it in a proper manner

I am surprised to see why the Activa sells this much, except for the ultra-reliable engine, there is absolutely nothing worth the money. But then, I want to share my story as to why it sells.

My brother had a Hero Honda Passion which never required any major part change or service for his 8 years of ownership but my first two-wheeler was an Activa and boy, it had so many front fork alignment issues that I started ignoring it. The silencer welding came off and had to be re-welded again. Engine switch and kick starter part replaced as it got jammed. Mirrors don't have tightening mechanism at the joint (they are held by a glue which wears off meaning you have to replace the entire unit else it starts dangling).
Horn got replaced as water went inside it. The front link type suspension is a joke, it becomes stiff within two years. Handlebar loosening (remember your bicycle's loose pivot ?) is common and that causes rattles and vibrations. Braking again is hopeless.
I've skidded off my wife's Hero Honda Pleasure and my Activa twice, that is when I lost confidence in these scooters. Despite my concerns my dad, my brother and my cousin bought another Activa/Dio again

PS: The handlebar loosening/rattling issue is present in all three Honda scooters we have currently and brother's Dio had kick-starter replaced under warranty
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Old 26th April 2016, 10:09   #9
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Default Re: March 2016: Two Wheeler Sales Figures and Analysis

I absolutely love the quick start of our Jupiter and miss that on our Aviator. I had written that Aviator won't sell unless it matches the features of other scooters. Activa might be selling now but once a good competitor comes up its sales might dwindle.

As said by NiInJa in the above post, scooters are delicate. Our Jupiter's centre stand went bad unexpectedly and scooter fell in parking. Yes, it got a small dent too.

Bikes are useful for office runs but scooters offer a lot of convenience in the form of storage. Hence the numbers are increasing. But do remember you cannot abuse a scooter like you can do with the bike. The engine and transmission are meant for smooth city run and not for super fast highway runs.

Forgot to tell the important thing I tried myself. Please do not keep scooter tyres over inflated, it skids. Inflate as per recommended pressure only. Typically its 22 PSI in front and 29 (single) 36 (pillion) PSI for rear. Road side tyre shops fill more air than required. Give them specific instructions or else be ready to skid at next speed bump.
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Old 26th April 2016, 11:49   #10
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Default Re: March 2016: Two Wheeler Sales Figures and Analysis

The monthly figures of XL Super never ceases to amaze me.
It still sells 70K a month, and this segment has no competitor!
Is there no other manufacturer ready to provide an alternative low cost vehicle with good load carrying abilities, suitable for rural / semi-urban areas and in market areas.
I have always found that the TVS XL Super to be a very nimble vehicle, with no difficulty to drive. It would be really interesting to have similar class of vehicles in the market.
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Old 26th April 2016, 12:56   #11
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Default Re: March 2016: Two Wheeler Sales Figures and Analysis

WOW! Such a superb analysis for the two-wheeler sales.

The difference between Honda and Hero sales is the failure of the "Dream" series. The poor build quality of the Dream series is a missed opportunity for Honda.

A querry! You are showing Bajaj Boxer in the 100-125 cc sales as 11. Is there a relaunch of it? Surely, this is not the export quantity I guess. Is there something I am missing? Thanks again for the detailed analysis.
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Old 26th April 2016, 13:09   #12
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Default Re: March 2016: Two Wheeler Sales Figures and Analysis

Very well detailed analysis there Rajeevraj! Surprised to see Hero Duet to pick up sales & be featured in the Top 20. Shows that Hero can do magic even in the scooter segment.

Honda is mostly depending on the Activa. Activa is just selling because of the name. The new Activa 3G has horrible quality and I have seen new Activa's having starting issues and fuel pump problems. Inspite of much better scooters in the market, Activa is selling because in India scooter = Activa.

TVS XL Super is a very useful & cheap utility vehicle. Almost all grocery stores in my area have one for delivery purpose. Inexpensive to maintain & cheap to run. Heard it can take loads upto 300 kg!

Suzuki Gixxer is losing out to sales to Yamaha FZ inspite of being cheaper and offering more power. Talks about the faith in the Yamaha brand! Bajaj V15 has also picked up well in sales because of good looks & the advertisement campaigns. Also, there is a sudden increase in sales of Hero Xtreme. Must be due to the launch of the new Xtreme Sports.
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Old 26th April 2016, 14:57   #13
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Default Re: March 2016: Two Wheeler Sales Figures and Analysis

I have compiled an year on year movement of major two wheeler OEMs in the scooter, motorcycle and moped segment.
FY2016 was a weak year for motorcycles given that the entry level of 100cc and 125cc, which contribute to about 70% of the sales, did not move much. The demand for 100cc and 125cc primarily comes from the rural segment; two consecutive weak monsoons and low rural wage growth led to weak demand for the entry segment motorcycle.
The scooter segment is mainly driven by urban demand; new launches and exciting first-in-segment features have resulted in good sales traction for the scooters.
Attached Thumbnails
March 2016: Two Wheeler Sales Figures and Analysis-2w.jpg  

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Old 26th April 2016, 16:25   #14
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Thumbs up Re: March 2016: Two Wheeler Sales Figures and Analysis

Thanks for the comprehensive data Rajeevra. Kudos to the effort !

One small observation seeing the sales figure was that 80% of the total sales are accounted for by models that are discussed maybe just 20% or even lower on forums, websites etc.

The bulk of the discussions are usually only on 'enthusiast' bikes on on-line forums, websites etc. but they account for meagre sales percentages.

This just goes on to show that two wheeler sales in India still are and would be primarily in commutator segment for years and years to come. That is where a a two wheeler company would be made or spared, and that's where most of the energies of all two wheeler companies still go !
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Old 26th April 2016, 21:04   #15
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Default Re: March 2016: Two Wheeler Sales Figures and Analysis

Great stuff Rajeev!!

What blew my mind was Street Twins in 2 months is more than all Triumphs put together.
Also spike in GSX s1000 and Hyabusa in Mar'16
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