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Old 9th July 2012, 11:00   #196
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Default Re: Recession Again ?

As one of my professors used to say, "To be a successful expert on TV you should have the capacity to say the most inane and obvious thing in a most profound manner".

This what most of the public pronouncements are.
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Old 9th July 2012, 11:16   #197
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Originally Posted by sgiitk View Post
As one of my professors used to say, "To be a successful expert on TV you should have the capacity to say the most inane and obvious thing in a most profound manner".

This what most of the public pronouncements are.
The best Expert: The Hindu : News / National : 8 % growth not

Quote:
Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia, on Friday, conceded that achieving a GDP (gross domestic product) expansion of 8 per cent in the next five years through the XII Plan would require a “major effort” and would not come about as a “God given right”.
No offense to anyone in any profession.

Last edited by lambuhere1 : 9th July 2012 at 11:37.
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Old 9th July 2012, 21:07   #198
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Recession in India is a combination of high inflation and lowering growth period. I believe it is called stagflation which is stagnant growth plus inflation.

The main reasons are
a) Slowing investments into India because of poor/lack of action by the ruling government. Government action on policy issues is almost stalled because firstly the babus are scared of taking any initiatives and being labelled/targeted by anti corruption activists from the Anna camp and secondly because of allies like Momta.
b) More and more unaccounted money flowing from secondary sources (black money) which is now so freely rotating in the monetary system that some economists estimate the black economy is of similar size to the white one. This extra money chasing the same resources is increasing prices of everything leading to inflation.

More inflation means lesser value for your rupee and slowing investments mean lack of pay-hikes which ensure that all middle-class/working class people are now looking at saving instead of spending. This tendency to save is leading to a recession. This is spiraling into a vicious cycle which RBI and others are unable to curb.

And believe me Stagflation is the worst thing to happen to any economy. This stagflation will kill our competitiveness in the world, lower our growth rate to single digits for the next 4-5 years and lead to a period of high inflation, price hikes, job losses and a overall feeling of depression in the country.

Only way to combat this is
a) Govt to make bold decisive steps in liberalization 2.0
b) Weed out the black money economy by a combination of reduction of taxes and indirect taxes
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Old 10th July 2012, 00:58   #199
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Hi apachelongbow,
If it seems Stagflation is a probability.
I seek info on ways to protect ourselves and ride it out strongly.
On investments, purchases or debt in view of Indian scenario please.
Thanks.
I never studied Economics, but post Greenspan, we all think of 'Its the Economy _' ,
also follow email on weekdays from Mises org the Austrian think tank.
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Old 10th July 2012, 12:41   #200
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Originally Posted by ritz3645 View Post
Now Finance dept of companies got into hedging of receipts, big time, insisted by all nationalised/private banks in India.
Why as INR was almost touching 42 to $.
Hedging is basically a forward contract to sell/buy X $ at a predetermined price.
It is with this very hedging that profits are set to rise further by a few percentage points solely due to the rupee fall.

While I dont totally believe whats published in the ToI, there must be some truth to it.
Rupee fall to boost IT margins up to 4% - Times Of India
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Old 12th July 2012, 12:53   #201
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Default Re: Recession Again ?

Govt announces 45K crore package to UP. Didi might be feeling really bad. She could have something similar supporting UPA nominee for President.

And S&P might downgrade us to 'junk' status. The diesel subsidy is Rs 9.13. Wonder when govt stops wasting our money. I am not sure how much of this package will generate jobs and revenue.

There are people who complain about some taxes being higher in Karnataka. I don't blame the govt here since they have never got any package since they have never been able to blackmail the central govt. Instead the Prince of Congress blackmailed the people during last elections that Bengaluru could get 3K crores if Cong came to power !
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Old 17th July 2012, 10:15   #202
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Source : News Headlines

Nice Read :

Quote:
The explosion in cheap credit has been widely blamed for the global financial crisis, but the debate about how to fix the problem continues

We could keep deferring the depression, but that could just encourage the bad guys. If you do this, you possibly do more harm than good,”

“You can defer, but not prevent.”

“When you throw money into the system at a rate much in excess of the requirements of the real economy, you’re trying to get people to borrow and spend, but the good guys out there won’t because they’re too cautious. It’s the bad guys who come in, the malefactors,”

“Policymakers really believe that if we allow credit to contract, we will reach a new Depression,”
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Old 17th July 2012, 11:20   #203
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I think you are considered a genius when you show growth by borrowing from the future.

I think we are going to face that future sometime in the present and let all hell break lose.
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Old 17th July 2012, 11:34   #204
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Quote:
Originally Posted by apachelongbow View Post
Government action on policy issues is almost stalled because firstly the babus are scared of taking any initiatives and being labelled/targeted by anti corruption activists from the Anna camp.

b) black economy is of similar size to the white one.

Only way to combat this is
a) Govt to make bold decisive steps in liberalization 2.0
b) Weed out the black money economy by a combination of reduction of taxes and indirect taxes
I think you have strong feeling against Anna and other crusaders. Also that you think the corruption is a god given right and by protesting against it we are preventing the govt to do work. That is in the spare time it gets after looting the tax payers. If that is your idea of a Govt then I am not buying it.

Black money also known as parallel economy of India is actually bigger and not equal to the white one.

Liberalization 2.0 from Manmohan?
Sorry but I will give it a pass. That man has lost all dignity.

Right now India is going through what US was going through under Bush second term.

A govt for the corps, by the corps and of the corps.
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Old 17th July 2012, 12:21   #205
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Originally Posted by download2live View Post
I think you have strong feeling against Anna and other crusaders. Also that you think the corruption is a god given right and by protesting against it we are preventing the govt to do work. That is in the spare time it gets after looting the tax payers. If that is your idea of a Govt then I am not buying it.

Liberalization 2.0 from Manmohan?
Sorry but I will give it a pass. That man has lost all dignity.
I do not have strong feelings against anna or his sidekicks, but yes I refuse to lower my thinking and follow a man who claims the only way to salvation is to tie drunkards to a pole and whip them. Very close to Taliban.

Where in my post have I endoresed corruption? I am sure my post is in simple plain English and not so difficult to interpret?

If you live in the real world you would realise that chasing an utopian dream of a corruption free world by force is just that: a fool's dream. Corruption will stop when "WE" stop paying bribes. PERIOD. If you have not bribed a single policeman then please comment.

Besides you seem to have a strong bias towards Manmohan, who was primarily responsible for you and I to sit and look at all good things in life, else you and I would drive around in ancient Ambassdor/Fiat Mark 100 commenting on how 50bhp is so wonderful in life
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Old 17th July 2012, 14:24   #206
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I do not have strong feelings against anna or his sidekicks, but yes I refuse to lower my thinking and follow a man who claims the only way to salvation is to tie drunkards to a pole and whip them. Very close to Taliban.
/
Hi mate,
the alcohol thing will never happen, but the views of Anna are also an innocent reflection of his personality.
Do you also think of any positive take away from him.
Many people got
stung with their stock positions, real estate positions, during the Anna effect.

I think the movement was more of a reality check, like emperors clothes.

India can never be as productive as to a developed country, even after 50, period.
Why because of its social set up, and mind set. But yes today everyone is paying more for everything as if earning dollar linked salary.

This whole idea of high growth in India was false and based solely on cheap credit.

Now bankers want but know the era of cheap credit is behind, so lets smell the coffee.

Will appreciate if you reply my query on Stagflation above please.
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Old 17th July 2012, 15:21   #207
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ritz3645 View Post
Hi apachelongbow,
If it seems Stagflation is a probability.
I seek info on ways to protect ourselves and ride it out strongly.
On investments, purchases or debt in view of Indian scenario please.
Thanks.
I never studied Economics, but post Greenspan, we all think of 'Its the Economy _' ,
also follow email on weekdays from Mises org the Austrian think tank.
Hi Ritz. You are right. Stagflation seems like a distinct and uncomfortable possibility. In such a senario, we should look at building up position on real assets that means land and gold, since you and I cant buy and store foodgrains/oil or other commodities.
All people who have good liquidity (cash in bank) right now are in the perfect position to use the cash in buying up cheap property and gold. Believe me when the property market crashes (its over heated and over valued all over India as of now), its best to buy and store land.
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Old 17th July 2012, 15:38   #208
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ritz3645 View Post
Hi mate,
the alcohol thing will never happen, but the views of Anna are also an innocent reflection of his personality.
Do you also think of any positive take away from him.
Many people got
stung with their stock positions, real estate positions, during the Anna effect.

I think the movement was more of a reality check, like emperors clothes.

India can never be as productive as to a developed country, even after 50, period.
Why because of its social set up, and mind set. But yes today everyone is paying more for everything as if earning dollar linked salary.

This whole idea of high growth in India was false and based solely on cheap credit.

Now bankers want but know the era of cheap credit is behind, so lets smell the coffee.
Only reason why you are seeing a recessionary trend is because of factors already mentioned by me.
What we need is urgent reforms in sectors of retail, aviation and infrastructure. We need internationally reputed players to come in and invest in India. For that to happen we need foreign direct investment (FDI) in retail, infrastructure and aviation.

We have too many government bodies in these sectors even today. For example Food Corporation of India, DGCA, Aviation ministry, Airport Authority of India, and all government corporation like BrahinMumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) We all know how utterly incompetent and corrupt these agencies are and how much wastage and suffering we are undergoing due to these bodies.

With foreign players coming in and government bodies going out, middlemen, thekedars, contractors would be kicked out, automatically increasing productivity, meeting deadlines and removing corruption.

Basic business of any government is to govern. That is to make rules and regulations and ensure these rules and regulations are met. Not to run farms, godowns, airports, ships, airlines, steel companies etc. Instead of governing, our government is busy running other things which has lead to this mess we are in.
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Old 17th July 2012, 16:04   #209
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Dear apachelongbow,
respect, maximum, for your response.

Agree totally on all points.
Also no more press note 18, give 51% to them. Why should Reliance retail, Birla retail make money by selling ownership, let them slog it out, and perform against, Ikea, wallmart,
I am waiting for this day.
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Old 17th July 2012, 16:21   #210
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This time we have had very lukewarm response to our recruitment drive. Upon some investigation, I found that most from the graduating batch (BE) of 2012 have received 2-3 job offers last year. I found it quite intriguing considering the state of economy right now. This means most of those job offers will not be honored when the graduates come out of the college.
Samurai. If you look now you may pick up the best of this lot, for cheap. I believe most of these engineers picked up by big IT companies have been put on hold. Most of the joining dates have either been deferred by 6 months or indefinitely.
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