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Old 6th August 2011, 07:10   #31
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Default Re: Recession Again ?

It is like, whenever recession takes place,people start investing in gold,rather than shares or others,hence gold prices rises. Gold price is one of the true indicator of recession. Ten years back it happened, then four years back and now... We should watch. Many Gulf countries have pegged their dollars, so if it affects, it will affect all over. And Euros, they always like to maintain a stronger position.
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Old 6th August 2011, 10:38   #32
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Originally Posted by devarshi84 View Post
I understand everyone investing in the markets at a time like this, but isn't liquidity important too?
Of course. There is a fine line to be toed. Enough cash to cover a possible job loss has to be factored in. And also for medical emergencies.
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Old 6th August 2011, 10:59   #33
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S&P has downgraded US to AA+ from AAA. Moody has retained the rating but with a negative outlook. Things are not looking too good for US right now.
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Old 6th August 2011, 11:02   #34
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Of course. There is a fine line to be toed. Enough cash to cover a possible job loss has to be factored in. And also for medical emergencies.
The thumb rule is that one should have 6 months salary as backup in an FD and compulsory medical insurance (even if you have a company one), say a family floater, during difficult times. Invest only surplus in equities/mutual funds.

Though equities/mutual funds offer easy liquidity, during a market crash one cannot sell due to heavy losses. Invest in balanced funds (such as HDFC Prudence) and some debt funds also.

A family floater is fairly cheap and can be converted to individual cover after your kids get their own jobs. Most insurances don't cover insurance for major illnesses in the first 3-5 years, so it is better to buy them earlier when they are cheaper and stay invested in them. If you have a company one (1) during a layoff, it is of no use and (2) when you retire, it will be too costly to buy an individual insurance and it won't cover any major illnesses that are not declared earlier.

Pradeep
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Old 6th August 2011, 12:28   #35
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I suppose it would be a good time for 'visionaries of stock markets'. The people we call 'with midas touch'. I think days are not far when we could buy bluechips for the price of peanuts.

And then, this is cyclic.

What comes down would go up (barring only a few exceptions) (in the stock market).

Ready with money, guys.
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Old 6th August 2011, 12:42   #36
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I suppose it would be a good time for 'visionaries of stock markets'. The people we call 'with midas touch'. I think days are not far when we could buy bluechips for the price of peanuts.

And then, this is cyclic.

What comes down would go up (barring only a few exceptions) (in the stock market).

Ready with money, guys.

No genius on this earth can predict stocks. When does the cycle start moving upwards... who knows? You predict that the 300Rs stock down turned to 200 Rs and and yes this is the time to buy. May be this is sometimes correct. But majority of the times it tends to go even down and it takes a minimum of two years at least to reach to the price that you bought at.

Never believe in any Analyst who recommend on these Business TV Channels. It is almost not true. The TV channel people will never ask him that his prediction never came right.
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Old 6th August 2011, 12:52   #37
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Sir, the key is, analyse yourself.

It is your money, and you won't like to spend it the way some person wants you to spend it, is it not?

I am not saying invest right now.

You have to keep your eyes open and be awake and aware of the scenario, and based on the information, generated by the macro economic environment and your own judgement take a decision and then invest.

The news channels are in no way to be even listened to, and to invest on their advice is surely putting your hard earned money into the well.

Last edited by deepfusion : 6th August 2011 at 12:54.
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Old 6th August 2011, 14:12   #38
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I'm no financial expert but it sounds like there are turbulent times ahead. With scams and terrorist attacks in India I would hang on to my money and maintain as much liquidity as possible.
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Old 6th August 2011, 14:52   #39
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Originally Posted by Wolfheart View Post
I'm no financial expert but it sounds like there are turbulent times ahead. With scams and terrorist attacks in India I would hang on to my money and maintain as much liquidity as possible.
Scams and terrorist attacks, to me, would not have much implication on the stock market in totality. Yes, scam, like the telecom scam, would affect the stocks of the companies involved, but not the stock market as a whole.

I am saying the same thing, dear: cling to your money. The best investment opportunity at this juncture is gold and silver, if you have a low risk appetite.
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Old 6th August 2011, 18:41   #40
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I dont understand economics. Just 15 days ago all was fine then suddenly 3 days ago the US markets crashed follwed by others. What happened in just 12 days for this to happen?
I was planning to retire but the way the prices are zooming we may have to work even from our graves.
Recession may be good news in that fuel prices may come down too due lower demand globally. Inflation too will come down. Super Markets and Malls will offer great deals.
Food prices will stabalise.
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Old 6th August 2011, 21:55   #41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nanduchitnis
I dont understand economics. Just 15 days ago all was fine then suddenly 3 days ago the US markets crashed follwed by others. What happened in just 12 days for this to happen?
I was planning to retire but the way the prices are zooming we may have to work even from our graves.
Recession may be good news in that fuel prices may come down too due lower demand globally. Inflation too will come down. Super Markets and Malls will offer great deals.
Food prices will stabalise.
The job numbers and future out look seems grim.
During recession the transaction volume slows down and as rightly mentioned the crude will cool but prices won't come down. This happened in the recent recession. Demand supply went for a toss during this time, maybe hoarding intensified.
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Old 6th August 2011, 22:03   #42
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Originally Posted by amitoj View Post
S&P has downgraded US to AA+ from AAA.
Is that the size of batteries.

Jokes apart. None of the CEOs or executive of the previous crisis were ever indicted. So its the same like Indian Govt.'s stand on terrorism.

Not much of a finance guy, I have watched couple of documentaries. They will enlighten you. Most recent i watched was "Inside Job"". Brilliantly made documentary that tries to tell the root cause.

Last edited by SirAlec : 6th August 2011 at 22:09.
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Old 8th August 2011, 11:04   #43
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Default Do you see what I see

Source: The great www

Do you guys see what I see. In June - July 2007, Greece crises erupted. From then, you can see what happened.

Will we reach the bottom somewhere soon, around 2012-2013. Only time will tell.

Experts can notice Head and Shoulder pattern currently formed on the right side of the chart. What does it mean? Are we slopping down. God alone help us.

Mods: Kindly remove the post if inappropriate!
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Old 8th August 2011, 11:24   #44
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^^^ investing too much in gold is another risk. it's fluctuating too much and with volatile interest rates nothing is safe right now IMO. best is to keep all your cash in banks and earn what ever meager interest rate, banks has to offer.
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Old 8th August 2011, 16:52   #45
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Default Re: Recession Again ?

Global Imbalance - An imminent Dollar Crisis

By M.R.Venkatesh, Economist
By Swadeshi Jagaran Manch and Vision India Trust

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