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Old 28th August 2013, 23:43   #136
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Default Re: The Falling Indian Rupee

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Originally Posted by carboy View Post
Here is a transcript of a lecture Michael Crichton (the guy who wrote Jurassic Park and lots of other sci-fi) gave at Caltech - https://www.cfa.harvard.edu/~scranmer/SPD/crichton.html
Michael Crichton's lecture is more on science in general and he gives instance of climate. But he is right. 'Climate scientists' can't make up their mind if we are moving towards ice age or global warming. They can't predict the weather next week but say with authority what the weather will be after 100 years.

More than climate, it is the pollution level we should be worried about.
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On micheal C, would you go to a medical thriller writer to get your illness treated, or a real doctor?
MC is a celebrated anthropologist, has an MD in medicine and a knowledgeable man. What he says makes sense.
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The FSA is only going to make things worse.
Analysts seem to link rupee fall with FSA. But spend in FSA is yet to happen ! So right now it is just the FSA sentiments in market.

But something seem to amiss in the FSA claims. For instance,

1) FSA claims to cover 80+ crore Indian population. That is close to 70% of Indian population. Does 70% of our population need food security?

2) According to FSA, Rs 23 per Kg rice will be given at Rs 3 per Kg. What if the population feels Rs 23 rice bad in quality and want Rs 30 per Kg rice? Who will the Govt sell Rs 23 rice it has bought from farmers?

3) Assuming a family of 4 need 5 Kg rice per month, if they buy Rs 23 rice, total spend would be Rs 115 per month. With FSA, they will get same quantity rice Rs 3 and total would be Rs 15 per month. So the saving by each family on rice is Rs 100 per month. Is this such a great benefit to people that they vote the Govt again?

Or, am I missing anything?
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Old 28th August 2013, 23:54   #137
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Default Re: The Falling Indian Rupee

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I think the thread title should be changed to the 'The Rising Dollar", for the Indian Rupee is not the only one losing value against the dollar. After the recent news about the US FED pullback of stimulus programme, the currencies of most of the Developing Nations like Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Africa, Korea etc have taken a huge hits. In fact the South African and Brazilan currencies are performing much worser than INR.
The Nokia case is unlike Vodafone. It was a clear case of bypassing existing tax sturucture wheras the vodafone case was about applying a tax retrospectively. Any way Nokia is in bad shape worldwide and even had plans of selling it's headquarters to debtors. It's the Kingfisher among handset makers
What would be interesting to know, is whether the other developing nation suffering from currency depreciation are in the same boat as us policy-wise and infrastructure-wise.

Are they finding it as difficult to adapt to the situation as we are, or is someone doing something differently that's more effective?
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Old 28th August 2013, 23:54   #138
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Default Re: The Falling Indian Rupee

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Michael Crichton's lecture is more on science in general and he gives instance of climate. But he is right. 'Climate scientists' can't make up their mind if we are moving towards ice age or global warming. They can't predict the weather next week but say with authority what the weather will be after 100 years.
Seriously?! Climate changes very very slowly. Its like saying a doctor cannot predict what will dengue fever be 1 hour from now, how can I trust what they say the symptoms will be over the next 7 days.

And I am unable to find any peer reviewed climate studies which predict that we are moving towards ice age(Remember "peer reviewed" is the key word here). If you interview 1000 doctors about 10 may say that vaccinations do not work, but we do not say "opinion is divided". But somehow. if even 1% of scientists differ, it becomes "cannot agree". If ratio was 70-30 or 60-40 I would buy this argument, but taking 1% of the scientist pool and saying "dissent" is kind of weird. Defies logic I say



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MC is a celebrated anthropologist, has an MD in medicine and a knowledgeable man. What he says makes sense.]
So if I am a Phd in particle physics, you will trust my opinion on Nephrology eh? Great logic

Last edited by tsk1979 : 28th August 2013 at 23:57.
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Old 28th August 2013, 23:56   #139
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Default Re: The Falling Indian Rupee

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1) FSA claims to cover 80+ crore Indian population. That is close to 70% of Indian population. Does 70% of our population need food security?
Couldn't resist posting this -

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Old 29th August 2013, 02:12   #140
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Default Re: The Falling Indian Rupee

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If you interview 1000 doctors about 10 may say that vaccinations do not work, but we do not say "opinion is divided".
I think that's the point of MC's article - science is not done by interviewing 1000 scientists and taking majority opinions. It's by repeatable experiments. And climate science is mostly models and consensus rather than repeatable experiments.

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So if I am a Phd in particle physics, you will trust my opinion on Nephrology eh? Great logic
Again, argue the lecture not the man. I know you are just responding to msdivy's statement to believe MC because of his credentials, but still.

Last edited by carboy : 29th August 2013 at 02:18.
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Old 29th August 2013, 08:00   #141
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Default Re: The Falling Indian Rupee

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Its like saying a doctor cannot predict what will dengue fever be 1 hour from now, how can I trust what they say the symptoms will be over the next 7 days.
Dengue is well known. Yes, symptoms for next 1 hour, next 7 days can be said with confidence and the experiment can be repeated. It is not like a hypothesis for climate change. We are just questioning the hypothesis.
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So if I am a Phd in particle physics, you will trust my opinion on Nephrology eh? Great logic
Michael Crichton is an anthropologist. So he would have studied the genus homo which is in existence on this earth for 2 million years, of which the sapien species is the current one. This can be studied only along with climate changes during this time and the rest of the ecology. So MC scientifically knows about climate.
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Old 29th August 2013, 10:15   #142
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Default Re: The Falling Indian Rupee

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I think that's the point of MC's article - science is not done by interviewing 1000 scientists and taking majority opinions. It's by repeatable experiments. And climate science is mostly models and consensus rather than repeatable experiments..
Correction. It is also based on Ice core data available for tens of thousands of years.
anyways, the draft report of the international Committe(made of various climate scientist peer groups all over the world) has been leaked.
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Old 29th August 2013, 10:42   #143
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It is also based on Ice core data available for tens of thousands of years.
That would take care of 1 or at most 2 issues I have raised in my post - http://www.team-bhp.com/forum/shifti...ml#post3221146 (The Falling Indian Rupee)

But even in the ice core and other data, why is Antartica data preferred to Greenland data? Also does everyone agree with the corrections applied on the Antartica data?
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Old 29th August 2013, 10:53   #144
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That would take care of 1 or at most 2 issues I have raised in my post - http://www.team-bhp.com/forum/shifti...ml#post3221146 (The Falling Indian Rupee)

But even in the ice core and other data, why is Antartica data preferred to Greenland data? Also does everyone agree with the corrections applied on the Antartica data?
Can you elaborate on both the points
1. corrections
2. Greenland ice sheet data?

BTW, if you really want to know what a warming planet can do, look at what happened to Europe 8000 years ago.

And polar ice caps are really shrinking, its not some prediction, its evidence over the last few decades
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_shrinkage

Earth has always gone through warm and cold periods over centuries. There is evidence which shows that the rate of warming and its effects occurring now have never happened in last few thousands of years.

Also look at
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Younger_Dryas

This shows what happens when a "chain reaction" happens. Again not a model, but historical fact.

Last edited by tsk1979 : 29th August 2013 at 10:55.
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Old 29th August 2013, 11:33   #145
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Even though food bill is disastrous it is not as bad as we think because many states are already giving such subsidy and it will b approx 70 ./. And only 30./. Additional will come and it is only a shift from state to centre - also all fertilizer subsidy etc might go also - the idea is give low cost food to poor and control the medicine cost - rest leave it to open market price policy and people above BPL will move to a capital market system - honestly it is a good system provided it gets implemented well - gas etc they buy the credit goes to account directly and rest at market price - all subsidy centralised system and rest a open market policy - only the time of implementation was mighty a very wrong time..

Regarding the current business environment in India, my take :The basic problem is - we are always looking for foreign fund for everything and it is now in a over invested situation and my personal feel - their pull back is very good for long term market - it is more or less running business on a highly leverage system and one should learn to run business or run economy with limited leverage - I feel more than living cost aspirations of people are gone up ! Multiple cars and branded goods etc ! People must come to realistic levels ! I m sure a gain will come after a pain and one must have the capacity to tolerate the pain and wait for a gain period!
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Old 29th August 2013, 11:50   #146
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Originally Posted by Chetan_Rao View Post
What would be interesting to know, is whether the other developing nation suffering from currency depreciation are in the same boat as us policy-wise and infrastructure-wise.
Today's editorial in The Hindu about the Food Bill and the similar situation in other developing nations. http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/edit...cle5068742.ece
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Even though food bill is disastrous it is not as bad as we think because many states are already giving such subsidy...
True.
Tamilnadu has been giving susidised food at lower rates than the current Food Bill for more than a decade, yet it has been among the top 3 states in education, infra, industrialisation, attracting investments, healthcare, etc.

Last edited by Daewood : 29th August 2013 at 11:55.
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Old 29th August 2013, 13:08   #147
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Honestly speaking , No body stops the govt from dolling out subsidies to poor .One needs to read through the bill to realize that they will be using existing PDS system to distribute the food grains.

Even a Money sitting on top of tree knows that the PDS system is nothing but leak system. So the Poor remains Poor . Only those in these PDS shops get more rich thus generating more black money & the food grain will never reach the poor .

There is no accountability in bill . nothing zilch. it's another MNREGA Scam in making . Nothing else. Those in power will open fictitious bank account claiming to be poor, money goes there and trail disappears. MNREGA Style .

Another point to ponder - Our dear president has refused to play ball on FSA as finance minister. Now As President, he signed the ordinance without any objections. think over it Because he is not responsible for the goof up;s of GOI .
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Old 29th August 2013, 13:51   #148
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A few years ago, when the dollar was not doing as well (dropped from 45 to 42 I guess!), IT and ITES folks were asked to work on weekends.
Now will they be asked to work less days in a week?

Dont come up with points about hedged contracts, not all have done it.
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Old 29th August 2013, 15:50   #149
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Let the pictures do the talking


Another Source : India Misery Index :

http://www.moneylife.in/article/indi...991/34097.html

Attached Images
    
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Old 29th August 2013, 17:03   #150
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NRIs are better off keeping their savings in dollars.
one of the more sensible points to come out of this thread. The sensible asset managers have been taking money out of speculative indian assets and buying up dollar assets. only reason for NRI investors to buy assets in India is to flip it for a quick profit to speculators and people with a lot of. liquid black money.

Id recommend the book "Free Lunch" by David Smith as a noobie guide to modern economics and monetary/fiscal policy.

And it will also tell you why its a bad idea to put money in bank FDs
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