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Old 29th March 2015, 21:33   #91
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Default Re: Germanwings Airbus A320 with 150 people onboard crashes in the French Alps

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Originally Posted by Jeroen View Post
A few further comments and thoughts to that......
Appreciate the additional insight on flight ops and data collection.
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Old 29th March 2015, 22:36   #92
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Default Re: Germanwings Airbus A320 with 150 people onboard crashes in the French Alps

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Fully agree Jeoren. If a fraction of money is put into fixing issues such that pilots are not penalized for not flying, this will actually be better!
Its a myth that pilots or cabin crew are penalized when not flying. In India at least we have the federation of Indian pilots (FIP), which covers medical grounding (both temporary and permanent), by means of an excellent insurance policy. One has to renew his/her membership each year and pay a few thousands per annum to be covered. In case one is unfortunately grounded due medical reasons, he/she gets a monthly amount (based on your policy) which can be almost equal to 60-75% of your take home during the time you are grounded. In case of death or permanent disability or loss of license, the pilot gets a handsome lump some amounting to a few crores, to help him/her start some other career.
In the company I work for (possibly in other airlines as well), we have a pilot benevolent scheme where in you get your full salary when you are medically grounded, until you recover (the other pilots and the company pitch in via small deductions in the salary), and in case of permanent grounding a lump sum amount is paid. This in addition to the FIP keeps us secure financially.

The DGCA too has a benevolent view regarding grounding of pilots due to their own mistakes (say a ground or air incident), in majority of the cases if during investigation it is found to be a honest mistake, the grounding is advised with full salary, its only in cases of fraud, willful negligence etc. that DGCA ensures the person remains unpaid.

I am not sure how things work in Germany in specific or in Europe in general, but at least in India, medical grounding is not a serious concern and it encourages folks to take care of their health and not fly until they recover.
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Old 30th March 2015, 08:25   #93
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Default Re: Germanwings Airbus A320 with 150 people onboard crashes in the French Alps

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Originally Posted by narayans80 View Post
One thing that I am still not able to convince myself is about the suicide/homicide theory. If the co-pilot wanted to crash the plane, why take 8 minutes to do it? After all like Silk Air 185, PSA 1771, Fedex 705 or EgyptAir 880 he could have disabled autopilot and used the yoke to put the plane nose down. The slow 8 min fly down makes no sense at all in that case.
Diving down from 38000 feet in a transport jet is more difficult then one thinks. The controls are sluggish, at high mach numbers it's easy to overcontrol, hit speed protections, and in the airbus the airplane will cancel your pitch down inputs and put in a nose up to stay safe. So what the copilot did is the simplest way. Also the gradual descent would not alarm people or atc onto taking prompt action.
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Old 30th March 2015, 10:05   #94
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Default Re: Germanwings Airbus A320 with 150 people onboard crashes in the French Alps

Not sure if the reference has been made earlier (read through the thread but couldn't find any). The IX212 had a similar experience, but it seemed more like a mistake than deliberate (as per investigations and official report filed).
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Old 30th March 2015, 10:35   #95
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Default Re: Germanwings Airbus A320 with 150 people onboard crashes in the French Alps

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Originally Posted by apachelongbow View Post
Its a myth that pilots or cabin crew are penalized when not flying. In India at least we have the federation of Indian pilots (FIP), which covers medical grounding (both temporary and permanent), by means of an excellent insurance policy.

I am not sure how things work in Germany in specific or in Europe in general, but at least in India, medical grounding is not a serious concern and it encourages folks to take care of their health and not fly until they recover.
That good to know, because in other parts of the world, notably USA and Europe this is not the case. For instance Ryan air doesnt employ it's pilots. Each pilot is self employed, if you dont fly you dont get paid. Some carriers offer a minimum hours of flight time per month, so you are quaranteed a minimum income. But if you don't show up that is deducted first. Getting an income insurance as a self employed person in most Western countries is hugely expensive and might cover some, but not all sort of leave.

I recall that for instance KLM has a policy which takes pilots of the active roster about a week or 10 days in advance of the due delivery date of their partner. Along similar lines. They know that having your partner about to give birth is a huge stress on men, especially when they are away from home. To me earlier point, they are likely to push home a little more agressively. Hence they just take them of the roster, will full financial compensation.

Same is true for instance for a death of parents, children. Even when you are flying say outbound and you have one these major events, the company would take you off the roster and certainly would not allow you to fly for some time. Depending who you work for, that would be done as a matter of policy with no financial consequences, some carriers dont have such policies at all. So pot luck what the mental state of the pilot is.

This happened quite some years ago. A very good friend of mine was a KLM 747 Captain. His wife went through a period of severe depression, suicidal, had to be committed etc. Luckily she fully recovered, but it took nearly three years. Even in those years (partly as a learing from the Teneriffe disaster) KLM pilot were encouraged to report these family situations. Which he did. He, as many pilots, absolutely loved to fly. So KLM stepped in and provided additional care and support for his wife whilst he was away. He was closely monitored throughout this period as well. But, as he told me, being able to fly kept me sane. And it was a great comfort to him that his employer took a very balanced approach and support him and his family.

How does that work for Indian pilots?

Jeroen
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Old 30th March 2015, 13:37   #96
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Default Re: Germanwings Airbus A320 with 150 people onboard crashes in the French Alps

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeroen View Post
Just to illustrate this point some figures from the USA:

In the chart below you can compare the average number of airline fatalities per year (not including commuter airlines) from 1981 to 1994 with the most recent figures for other forms of accidental death.

100 on commercial flight
850 by electrical current
1000 on a bicycle
1452 by accidental gunfire
3000 by complications to medical procedures
3600 by inhaling or ingesting objects
5000 by fire
5000 by drowning
5300 by accidental poisoning
8000 as pedestrians
11,000 at work
12,000 by falls
22,500 at home
46,000 in auto accidents
When someone talks about risk - he is talking about a percentage/fraction of occurrence.
100 deaths on commercial flights per year has to be divided by the total no. of passengers on commercial flights per year.
46000 death in auto accidents has to be divided by the number of instances of people driving/riding or even crossing road per year.

Please note this is not a challenge to the figures or trying to prove you (or anyone else) wrong.
I really have no idea how many instances of passengers flying in a year and how many instances of people being passengers/drivers/pedestrians per year. It is just that is struck me that we might be talking about numerator without knowing about the denominator in the fraction.

Last edited by alpha1 : 30th March 2015 at 13:44.
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Old 30th March 2015, 14:19   #97
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Default Re: Germanwings Airbus A320 with 150 people onboard crashes in the French Alps

Now a communal ISIS/ISIL theory is doing the rounds. I do not believe it but then it is Bhaskar and quotes Bild!


http://www.bhaskar.com/news-ht/INT-g...47573-PHO.html
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Old 30th March 2015, 15:11   #98
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Default Re: Germanwings Airbus A320 with 150 people onboard crashes in the French Alps

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Originally Posted by sgiitk View Post
Now a communal ISIS/ISIL theory is doing the rounds. I do not believe it but then it is Bhaskar and quotes Bild!


http://www.bhaskar.com/news-ht/INT-g...47573-PHO.html
That argument has been long rebutted thankfully:
http://antiviral.gawker.com/the-evid...-is-1694063626

That report is basically just cooking things up to force-fit them to one's personal prejudices. Thankfully gawker tore into it just fine!
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Old 30th March 2015, 15:58   #99
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Default Re: Germanwings Airbus A320 with 150 people onboard crashes in the French Alps

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Originally Posted by alpha1 View Post
He is plainly speaking from experience ...
Everybody will claim to be speaking from experience. Look at the "Lady drivers blah blah blah. I'm not sexist, but it is my experience" posts. Most of those people do not understand the real difference between experience and prejudice and it is very refreshing to see some posts here from people who obviously do, and it is nice to see that they are in senior positions where they are able to impliment their better thinking. A breath of fresh air.

Offence intended on an if-the-cap-fits basis. Certainly none intended to the silent many who don't believe that colour/gender/race/creed/etc/etc/etc makes any difference but have had no reason to say so.

Rant over, and I want to thank the participants in this thread for providing the best, most well-informed coverage of this awful disaster that I have seen on the web. Thank you!
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Old 31st March 2015, 00:14   #100
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alpha1 View Post
When someone talks about risk - he is talking about a percentage/fraction of occurrence.
100 deaths on commercial flights per year has to be divided by the total no. of passengers on commercial flights per year.
46000 death in auto accidents has to be divided by the number of instances of people driving/riding or even crossing road per year.

Please note this is not a challenge to the figures or trying to prove you (or anyone else) wrong.
I really have no idea how many instances of passengers flying in a year and how many instances of people being passengers/drivers/pedestrians per year. It is just that is struck me that we might be talking about numerator without knowing about the denominator in the fraction.

Im not saying you are wrong but in the context of what I was trying to say not so relevant. That was more on absolute numbers as in having an impact on society at large. From that point of view aviation has a relative small absolute number of fatalities whereas fairly mundane type of activities, e.g doing household chores, have far more fatalities. Society at large becomes hugely indignant when an airline crashes, but does next to nothing to address other areas where fatalities are much higher. So its not about risk perse as just the absolute number of deaths in a society.

So take my home country, the Netherlands. During the last year several hundred of my countrymen died in several aviation disasters. Every single day this incidents are in the news, but statistically they are not more then an anomaly. But at the same time thousands and thousand of people die in the Netherlands from things as simple as household chores, during exercise etc. nobody talks about those deaths, it is just not on the public radar.

To put it differently, if you want to reduce the total number of fatal accidents in a society the last sector you need to address is aviation as it is incredible safe to start with. Just about everything else comes with a considerable higher human toll. Never the less, the (social) media focusses on the bit that is the safest already whether you look at it from a risk point of view or an absolute point of view.

Jeroen
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Old 31st March 2015, 11:26   #101
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Default Re: Germanwings Airbus A320 with 150 people onboard crashes in the French Alps

Today in the economic times and published on various international website:

Low cost airlines are high stress for pilots

http://www.bloombergview.com/article...ess-for-pilots

Jeroen
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Old 31st March 2015, 13:59   #102
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Default Re: Germanwings Airbus A320 with 150 people onboard crashes in the French Alps

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Originally Posted by Jeroen View Post
To put it differently, if you want to reduce the total number of fatal accidents in a society the last sector you need to address is aviation as it is incredible safe to start with. Just about everything else comes with a considerable higher human toll. Never the less, the (social) media focusses on the bit that is the safest already whether you look at it from a risk point of view or an absolute point of view.
While I recognise the perspective in terms of numbers, I believe this cannot be reduced to a statistical point. By that logic:
- we should not give attention to acts of terrorism, the average numbers of deaths due to this in the western world are really too small
- we should not give attention to gang rape and death cases like the Nirbhaya case, again numbers not really significant in a statistical context
- ditto stadium collapses and football related violence.

...but we do care and the media does give attention.

Human species has an ingrained sense of culture, identity and emotion which distinguishes from any other animal species. Somewhere, the occurrence of deaths due to either deliberate or avoidable acts of violence and tragedies, causes us to revolt and take notice. If a man falls of a ladder at home and dies because he missed a step, there is very little that can be done systemically to avoid this. However, if 1000 people get washed away in a cyclone or tsunami because early warning was not in place, this is definitely avoidable.

I personally do not think it is a bad thing to give publicity to avoidable tragedies or deliberate acts like the current one. In some way, they go towards shaping the human psyche. This is in no way to say that airlines are unsafe, it is to highlight concrete steps that can possibly be taken to make things better for the future.

As this post of mine is already seriously , I will stop here to avoid censure from the Mods.
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Old 31st March 2015, 15:03   #103
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Default Germanwings Airbus A320 with 150 people onboard crashes in the French Alps

Thanks for your response, as part of the discussion on this tragedy and would or should be done, I would think this discussion is highly appropriate and very much on topic. I think acts of terrorism, rape and such require attention by their very nature, irrespective of the actual fatalities.

And yes, it has been proven that you can reduce the home chore fatalities considerably!

I don't have the solution either, whilst at the same time, Im also not so sure of what to think of the other American policy after 9/11 whereby on American carriers you are likely to have an armed pilot in the cockpit.

Apperently close to 15-20% of the US pilots are "packing"
Jeroen

Last edited by Jeroen : 31st March 2015 at 15:31.
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Old 31st March 2015, 15:26   #104
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Default Re: Germanwings Airbus A320 with 150 people onboard crashes in the French Alps

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Originally Posted by reverse_gear View Post
- we should not give attention to acts of terrorism, the average numbers of deaths due to this in the western world are really too small
- we should not give attention to gang rape and death cases like the Nirbhaya case, again numbers not really significant in a statistical context
- ditto stadium collapses and football related violence.
You are misconstruing his post, nowhere he has mentioned that we shouldn't pay attention to terrorism or rape. He is pointing out the misplaced priorities of our society which are governed mostly by media driven frenzy and not hard facts. A life is a life, it doesn't matter if a person is killed by an act of terror or while crossing the road or by falling into an uncovered manhole. If the idea is to reduce the loss of fatalities due to avoidable reasons, we need to commit more resources and time to those avoidable events which take away more lives. If you have a billion dollars to reduce fatalities and you could use it either to reduce airline disasters and save a few hundred lives or improve road safety and save a few hundred thousand lives, what do you think the priority should be?

He is not talking about ignoring one cause for another, it is about prioritizing our time and resources to those issues that affect more lives.
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Old 31st March 2015, 16:13   #105
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Default Re: Germanwings Airbus A320 with 150 people onboard crashes in the French Alps

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Originally Posted by Astleviz View Post
You are misconstruing his post, nowhere he has mentioned that we shouldn't pay attention to terrorism or rape. He is pointing out the misplaced priorities of our society which are governed mostly by media driven frenzy and not hard facts.
Clearly, he has not mentioned that and neither have I accused him of mentioning that. I don't want to comment on what is a misplaced priority and what is not. The first line of my post, which I quote again below, was the reason for my response.

Quote:
While I recognise the perspective in terms of numbers, I believe this cannot be reduced to a statistical point.
Nobody is asking us to choose between road safety and airline safety/ security. There are different arms of the government and private enterprise that are active in both these areas and we should be entitled to a reasonable (and continuously improving) level of safety on both.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Astleviz View Post
He is not talking about ignoring one cause for another, it is about prioritizing our time and resources to those issues that affect more lives.
This would (statistically) lead us back to where you started - less priority to terrorism, gang rape, etc. and more to the statistically significant causes of death. I am not saying whether this is right or wrong, just that it would not be in sync with human psyche, where emotional issues play a significant role.

I have nothing more to say on this sub-topic.
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