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Old 26th September 2006, 11:59   #1
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Default Crude oil price is crashing in international market

From a high of $75+ to a low of $59.50 in just no time(head and shoulder pattern in charts technically,all stock enthusiasts will know what this mean!)Our petrolium minister has said that local fuel price will go down in next 3 weeks,how much we should expect?I feel Rs.1.5 for petrol and Rs.2.5 for diesel and not much .Views/guesses are invited.
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Old 26th September 2006, 12:03   #2
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Going by past history, when prices rise, we get a rise of Rs.1 - 2.00. BUT, when prices fall, we get a fall of Rs.0.50!!
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Old 26th September 2006, 12:09   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rtech
Going by past history, when prices rise, we get a rise of Rs.1 - 2.00. BUT, when prices fall, we get a fall of Rs.0.50!!
I agree with you on that. The oil lobby is too powerful and the govt will invariably have to bend its knees. Infact, I will not be surprised if the price cut does not happen at all. Afterall, the oil companies will have to make good their supposed losses all these days.
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Old 26th September 2006, 12:49   #4
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the fuel minister has said that only if internation price touches $50 will we see any reduction. So it may amount to nothing after all!

Given the fact that the price rose by 5 bucks when crude jumped to $75 ftom $60, we should be given at least a Rs 7 cut in the prices now

Well, we can dream, cant we.....
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Old 26th September 2006, 14:01   #5
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Well I'm really happy about the price drop but let's see how the Govt. reacts to this. Oil minister Murli Deora had commented on Saturday that if oil falls below $50 per barrel then they would be reducing the prices. Let's see if it holds tru & to what extent the cut is done.
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Old 26th September 2006, 14:02   #6
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just in:

http://www.ibnlive.com/news/no-immed...a/22504-7.html
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Old 26th September 2006, 14:02   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by himanshugoswami
we should be given at least a Rs 7 cut in the prices now .. Well, we can dream, cant we.....
haha .. taking a cue from that dream ..
maybe they should launch a diwali scheme ..

Buy 10 litres, get 1 litre free !
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Old 26th September 2006, 17:01   #8
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An update on this but slightly different one,now me too don't expect any price cut in near term!!
ONGC-20 wells drilled, but company missed drilling target for August 2006 by more than 50%

Sept. 25: This website carries herein an update on ONGC's drilling activities during August 2006, and the April-August 2006, period, which indicate that the monsoons forced the company to underperform on its drilling commitments for the month by over 50 per cent. According to the detailed statistics, a total of 20 wells (16 onshore wells and four offshore wells) were drilled during the month against a target of 46 wells (24 onshore wells and 22 offshore wells). The exploration and production major drilled six exploratory wells at its onshore territories and a solitary exploratory well in the Western offshore, though it had originally planned for a total of 18 exploratory wells during the month. Furthermore, development drilling activities were also drastically cut, with 10 development wells drilled in onshore acreages -- against budget expenditure (BE) plan of 15 onshore development wells -- and three development wells in the Western Offshore, implying drilling of 13 development wells against the target of 28 development wells. The company's cumulative achievement for FY2006-07 was 95 wells (onshore-73, offshore-22) against a target of 134 wells (onshore-86, offshore-48). (Click on Details for statistics pertaining to ONGC's exploratory and development drilling activities during August 2006, and April-August 2006)

Last edited by ECM : 26th September 2006 at 17:02.
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Old 26th September 2006, 18:56   #9
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ECM,i dont think Indian production will have any impact on local price.Its the int. crude price which matters and today i read a repoprt in newspaper that further price fall is imminent and bosses at London HQ r really worried that they r not getting many orders for crude.

Even if crude prices fall to $30 a barrel,still our pet.mininster wont reduce the prices to even 35-40 rs per lit.At present they should have reduced its prices by atleast 5 rs.
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Old 26th September 2006, 19:18   #10
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rsjaurr the reason of NOT reducing price right now may be because we never know at what price our crude basket traded recently (for imports),if anyone can throw some lights on this it will be very helpful indeed.As far as my knowledge goes many oil cos and hedge funds lost heavily in this meltdown of commodities and there was no time to square up their trades and it fell on low volumes.
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Old 26th September 2006, 19:24   #11
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further on your reply dear rsjaurr the point is we are still not serious inuf to explore oil and gas in our own country.I posted on this subject when I joined this forum,not inuf survey being done for exploration,we love ready made menu,for example pharmaceutical sector(how much RND u see in it?It just began infect).There is a big need to find new oil fields and for this fresh survey need to be carried out.Assam/Bombay high/Gujarat/Tapti besin-Godawari is afcaurse in India but what about the rest of India?
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Old 26th September 2006, 21:06   #12
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ECM,it will be like a blessing in disguise coz when oil will be finished in other parts of world then we can start exploring our land for oil+gas.....


And guys when Murali deora was made pet.minister,i read in a newspaper that he is basically reliance man.so dont expect any price cut [coz reliance dont want it]but politicians may be forced to cut down oil prices coz of elections in 4 states early next yr.
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