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Old 18th January 2017, 16:39   #2161
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Default Re: Government scraps Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes!

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Originally Posted by sachinpk View Post
This being a huge excercise the yard sticks and measuring posts would have to change. If the "goal post" was that new currency would only be released after the old currency comes back completely, do you feel it would work out?
Just to explain my point :
How about having variable dates for tax filing for a FY? Just because the people in power feel that changing a pre-defined and stated deadline to catch out people and than making them pay a penalty for waiting till the previous deadline.

Let's not forget here that the dates specified were stated when the move was announced, and not something people just believed it should be as per their convenience. How about the innocents caught out with legitimate money who aren't in a position to deposit the money owing to genuine circumstances and who believed in the timelines listed during the announcement?

If you are convinced that a government which sets timelines for its policies and then out of the blue decides to change them saying this is the new law, is justified, then i have nothing more to add to the discussion here.
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Old 18th January 2017, 20:20   #2162
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Default Re: Government scraps Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes!

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Whether demonetization is a success or not, only time will tell. So let's look at the other concern, the implementation efficiency.

The efficiency of any implementation primarily depends on two things:

1) Scale of Operation: If you try something with 1 person, you might achieve 100% results. Try the same for 100, you miss a few. Try the same for 1000, you might miss a hundred. Demonetization was an implementation that involved the entire population of the country. You will be lucky to get 50% things right. Size alone can undermine the efficiency by a large degree.

2) Amount of practice: If you try something complex for the first time without any practice, you can rarely get it right. Let's take something that involved similar scale, the Aadhar card rollout. When my parents got their card in 2013, the entire process was such a mess. Nobody knew what was happening and number of errors were staggering. So I refused to sign up. Finally I applied for Aadhar card in 2016 and it happened quite smoothly, as the processes had matured over 3 years and officials knew what they were doing. Demonetization came like a bolt from the blue, to both citizens and officials implementing it. Even the government/RBI/bank officials are caught up in this roller-coaster trying to figure out how to get it right, because nobody has had any practice in this until it happened. Lack of practice alone can undermine the efficiency by a large degree.

Demonetization was probably the largest scale implementation in history, and they had no practice at all. The product of both these factors, can only be even less efficiency. So I stopped worrying about the efficiency of demonetization long ago. No point chasing a mirage.
Pardon my ignorance here.But since most of us are here in IT,its akin to me telling my client - "Here,this is the project.I dont know if it will work or not,only time will tell.Until then,please live with whatever shortcomings this project has come with"

Is that what the post is conveying?
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Old 18th January 2017, 20:39   #2163
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Default Re: Government scraps Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes!

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Pardon my ignorance here.But since most of us are here in IT,its akin to me telling my client - "Here,this is the project.I dont know if it will work or not,only time will tell.Until then,please live with whatever shortcomings this project has come with"

Is that what the post is conveying?
No. First part is very rare in IT industry, since the scale is never is this big. Although I do remember a project called NET-1000 in AT&T Bell Labs which happened around in the 80s, which involved 1000s of people and they spent billions on it. It failed.

The second situation will rarely happen in IT services involving customers. But it happens a lot in product development that involves lots of new technology. I spent most of 26 years of my career in product development, so I have seen many such failures.

Your hypothetical situation of telling the client won't happen because when you develop for a customer, you must have prior experience in similar projects, in both scale and technology. If not, the client must look else where.
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Old 18th January 2017, 20:53   #2164
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Default Re: Government scraps Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes!

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Pardon my ignorance here.But since most of us are here in IT,its akin to me telling my client - "Here,this is the project.I dont know if it will work or not,only time will tell.Until then,please live with whatever shortcomings this project has come with"

Is that what the post is conveying?
Nope, it is conveying this: "Here is the project. We have tested it for a certain number of simultaneous users but we understand your workloads could go several orders of magnitude over that. We expect it to scale, but it might not. Further, it is a complex piece of software; so your users will take time to understand how to operate it correctly."
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Old 18th January 2017, 21:04   #2165
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Default Re: Government scraps Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes!

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Your hypothetical situation of telling the client won't happen because when you develop for a customer, you must have prior experience in similar projects, in both scale and technology. If not, the client must look else where.
That is precisely what has happened here,no?.

Neither the Govt nor the RBI with any prior experience or any prior example of demonetizing 86% of the currency in circulation in the country,have shoved something down the throats of the people.

..and here the client doesn't even have any choice other than to take the product as is.
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Old 18th January 2017, 21:09   #2166
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Default Re: Government scraps Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes!

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Nope, it is conveying this: "Here is the project. We have tested it for a certain number of simultaneous users but we understand your workloads could go several orders of magnitude over that. We expect it to scale, but it might not. Further, it is a complex piece of software; so your users will take time to understand how to operate it correctly."
And the one thing we forgot to test is if the new notes fit inside the existing ATM machines.

That would have been a SCRUM review meeting I wish I could watch.
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Old 18th January 2017, 21:46   #2167
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And the one thing we forgot to test is if the new notes fit inside the existing ATM machines.
Regression suite failure?

I am actually quite skeptical of the argument that ATM reconfiguration was a major issue. Even in normal days, every ATM is visited at least once a day - and reconfiguring doesn't sound that complex a task to me. I think it was just a story that someone came up with, as a plausible excuse for the banks.
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Old 18th January 2017, 22:10   #2168
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Default Re: Government scraps Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes!

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We have tested it for a certain number of simultaneous users but we understand your workloads could go several orders of magnitude over that. We expect it to scale, but it might not. Further, it is a complex piece of software; so your users will take time to understand how to operate it correctly."
And let me add, We can go live in 50 days!

That it was tested successfully and the 50 day claim are both laughable, as simple back of envelope calculations show that it is not feasible
http://www.hindustantimes.com/static...0-rupee-notes/

This sounds more like another story that happens a lot in IT cos. The client wants transformation, and the vendor is under pressure to prove it before his 5 year contract is up. He's halfway into the contract period and he's not been able to meet SLA's. So he finds out a brand new cloud based solution, that exists only on PPT, and the sales teams, as well as the client partner, being under pressure claims that not only can it go live in 50 days, but is superior to competitor solutions.
One day the client wakes up to find his enterprise systems all gone and replaced with..... Nothing. Apparently there were some hiccups during the migration, and the implementation and delivery teams insist that everything will be stabilized, and how the shiny new solution will transform business, reduce operating costs, increase revenues, and even reduce competitor revenues! The client is stuck with this vendor right now, because it's going to be a while before he can onboard another one, and decides to see. They consider going legal, but find out there is nothing which specified that the vendor should not do this in the contract, and the best they can complain about is the SLA's, but it appears since the applications are new, the vendor has defined them by itself, and chosen conveniently long ones.

Business users manage with email and desktop apps. Gradually functionality gets restored, but users find that the platform vendors of the new cloud based solutions have started billing them based on usage, and are furious about the added costs. services vendor negotiates temporary waiver for usage costs. In the meantime, web filtering is implemented, and only platforms supported by the vendor are whitelisted, and everything else is blocked to push for adoption of the new apps. never mind that the replacement apps are not ready yet. Pleas for a delayed implementation of the whitelist are rejected stating that it is needed to spur user adoption and ensure data integrity for migration.

Meanwhile a cutoff date is promised and users are to save any data that was created/ updated past that date. But during migration, the team finds that the latest backup is useless, and only an older version is usable. however the applications and infra are no longer available, when the new applications are bought online, users find that their backups and the restored data do not sync . When asked, the vendor claims that everybody should back up data, and its the users fault they don't have older backups.

In the meantime, the 50 day go live period is past, and all the systems are still not fully functional, let alone stable, and the ones that are working, are facing huge user loads and crashing. Vendor claims SLA's are being met, ticket volumes have reached baseline , but users have no idea how, and vendor refuses to share ticket volumes.

In the midst of all these suffering business users, the client IT team, having a lot riding on the client, suddenly become cloud enthusiasts, and decide to promote the new cloud initiative and push cloud adoption among business users. They start pushing the benefits of cloud - Its cheaper ( business users wonder why then they are being used to pay for using applications) It's Secure ( they're still being hacked and customer data breaches are still happening. They even wonder why a solution vendor who was blacklisted earlier for security breaches has reappeared ) Cloud is the future! ( what the business case is for that?) Cloud is scalable and flexible ( then why is this vendor having so many issues scaling now?) Cloud is Robust( then why is the sla 99.5% only?) However, anybody who opposes it branded a luddite or a dinosaur, standing in the way progress. There are contentious debates all over the media, especially on a well known automobile forum!


Vendor pays for full page articles on forbes how client managed a cloud transformation, client CEO takes credit and the press opportunities. By this time, the boiling frog effect kicks in, and the users become complacent. They had a crappy IT infrastructure before, they still have crappy infrastructure now, at least this one is something they can use to one up their competitors, and at least they didn't have to pay for it, other than all their suffering, and thats already a sunk cost. little do they know that the SAAS vendors fees are just around the corner, and now their precious enterprise data is no longer in their hands, but out there on a public cloud with no agreements in place and they have no idea about the long term impacts.

Last edited by greenhorn : 18th January 2017 at 22:23.
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Old 18th January 2017, 22:39   #2169
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That it was tested successfully and the 50 day claim are both laughable, as simple back of envelope calculations show that it is not feasible
http://www.hindustantimes.com/static...0-rupee-notes/
Had seen this when it was first published; it assumes that the plan is to replace all the value of the old notes with new ones. I don't think that is the plan (which is evidenced by the push for "cashlessness" and digital payments which are primarily measures to reduce currency demand).
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Old 18th January 2017, 23:01   #2170
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Had seen this when it was first published; it assumes that the plan is to replace all the value of the old notes with new ones. I don't think that is the plan (which is evidenced by the push for "cashlessness" and digital payments which are primarily measures to reduce currency demand).
The RBI governor seems to have informed the Parliamentary Committee during today's hearing that ~9.x Lac Crore has been pumped back into the system so far in new currency, which is ~60% of total demonetised currency value (assuming initial 15 Lac Crore estimate hasn't changed significantly).

Didn't see anything on the ticker about a target%, may have missed it or nothing was said, not sure.

Last edited by Chetan_Rao : 18th January 2017 at 23:04.
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Old 18th January 2017, 23:09   #2171
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Default Re: Government scraps Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes!

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Had seen this when it was first published; it assumes that the plan is to replace all the value of the old notes with new ones. I don't think that is the plan (which is evidenced by the push for "cashlessness" and digital payments which are primarily measures to reduce currency demand).
The site does give numbers for partial remonetization. Assuming their numbers are correct, working backwards from the 50 day period means that the govt was planning to replace only 28% of the demonetized notes - A rather ambitious number given the state of cashless payment systems in the country. Excellent idea in terms of curbing inflation etc, but not sure if practical -

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Originally Posted by Chetan_Rao View Post
The RBI governor seems to have informed the Parliamentary Committee during today's hearing that ~9.x Lac Crore has been pumped back into the system so far in new currency, which is ~60% of total demonetised currency value (assuming initial 15 Lac Crore estimate hasn't changed significantly).
Seems better than the HT estimate ( or perhaps they had some amount printed and ready to go already) Lets see how much longer it takes for ATM's to reopen

Last edited by greenhorn : 18th January 2017 at 23:12.
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Old 18th January 2017, 23:21   #2172
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Default Re: Government scraps Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes!

How about Adhaar enabled thumbprint scanner/Pos machines. Will these be rolled out soon and what could be the impact?

I hear that master and Visa is worried

Last edited by vishnurp99 : 18th January 2017 at 23:22.
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Old 19th January 2017, 06:07   #2173
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Default Re: Government scraps Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes!

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That is precisely what has happened here,no?.

Neither the Govt nor the RBI with any prior experience or any prior example of demonetizing 86% of the currency in circulation in the country,have shoved something down the throats of the people.

..and here the client doesn't even have any choice other than to take the product as is.
So true! Worst case is that the people who critic the methodology adopted are labelled as non team players by those who have fallen for the sales pitch.

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And let me add, We can go live in 50 days!


This sounds more like another story that happens a lot in IT cos. The client wants transformation, and the vendor is under pressure to prove it before his 5 year contract is up. He's halfway into the contract period and he's not been able to meet SLA's. So he finds out a brand new cloud based solution, that exists only on PPT, and the sales teams, as well as the client partner, being under pressure claims that not only can it go live in 50 days, but is superior to competitor solutions.

Business users manage with email and desktop apps. Gradually functionality gets restored, but users find that the platform vendors of the new cloud based solutions have started billing them based on usage, and are furious about the added costs. services vendor negotiates temporary waiver for usage costs. In the meantime, web filtering is implemented, and only platforms supported by the vendor are whitelisted, and everything else is blocked to push for adoption of the new apps. never mind that the replacement apps are not ready yet. Pleas for a delayed implementation of the whitelist are rejected stating that it is needed to spur user adoption and ensure data integrity for migration.

Meanwhile a cutoff date is promised and users are to save any data that was created/ updated past that date. But during migration, the team finds that the latest backup is useless, and only an older version is usable. however the applications and infra are no longer available, when the new applications are bought online, users find that their backups and the restored data do not sync . When asked, the vendor claims that everybody should back up data, and its the users fault they don't have older backups.
Love it! Sums up exactly what's happening here, but in IT parlance. Couldn't have said it better.
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Old 19th January 2017, 09:00   #2174
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Default Re: Government scraps Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes!

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That is precisely what has happened here,no?
Yes, it happens in government all the time, in every country. Because of the massive scale and the unfamiliarity of process, government programs of this nature have high inefficiency. That is what I am trying to convey.

Your hypothetical scenario was about IT services, where you never tell the client that the project will be highly inefficient. He won't award you the contract then. Project might fail at the end, but you would never get to tell the client about it in advance that it might fail.

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And let me add, We can go live in 50 days!
Brilliant story! Except, comparison of IT projects to government projects is not fair. That is like equating election manifesto with SOW. Governments are rarely known to do what the electorate want, once their are elected. So you can't attribute vendor/client relationship to them.

I have noticed this temptation of IT folks to apply ideas from their world to non-IT world even before. It makes a hilarious story, but doesn't address the reality that such metaphors have severe limitation.
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Old 19th January 2017, 09:17   #2175
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Default Re: Government scraps Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes!

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Vendor pays for full page articles on forbes how client managed a cloud transformation, client CEO takes credit and the press opportunities. By this time, the boiling frog effect kicks in, and the users become complacent. They had a crappy IT infrastructure before, they still have crappy infrastructure now, at least this one is something they can use to one up their competitors, and at least they didn't have to pay for it, other than all their suffering, and thats already a sunk cost. little do they know that the SAAS vendors fees are just around the corner, and now their precious enterprise data is no longer in their hands, but out there on a public cloud with no agreements in place and they have no idea about the long term impacts.
Bravo! Bravo! Loved every bit, superb, hilarious. Especially loved

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However, anybody who opposes it branded a luddite or a dinosaur, standing in the way progress.
A lot of guys do the above thing, you cannot voice your concerns, they come as a swarm of killer bees and they ensure your mouth is shut tight.

I am just thinking how can people see a positive in all this? People who say inflation is down are forgetting the number of times fuel rates went up in the last couple of days, vendors have no choice but to cut prices and sell at loss since there is no purchase happening.

When I spoke about government pushing cashless transition down common man's throat even before he was ready, I was termed as a rumor monger.

People went to the extent of putting me in their ignore list

They were obviously missing the big elephant in the room, this was not at all handled well, all the raids that are happening now are nothing different than what was happening before demonetization, someone gives a tipoff and they conduct a raid.

so 2 minutes of silence for all those great souls here who thought that they will buy that vacant plot in their dream location, whose price would crash due to this stupid, unplanned and arrogant circus by the government.

Pramod
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