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Old 21st November 2016, 14:53   #1111
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Default Re: Government scraps Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes!

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Originally Posted by VKumar View Post
I would request everyone to once go through what Ruchir has to say.

Populist nationalism cannot paper over economic chaos unleashed by demonetisation drive
http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/A...21112016018050

I do not know who this gentleman is and what is his claim to fame, but I found following suggestion from his article if not self-defeating a ridicules one.
Quote:
There is also a better way to downsize the black economy , which Modi's government tried but with underwhelming results. Earlier this year, it offered a tax amnesty and imposed a punitive tax of 45%. The result: Indians came forward to declare assets worth less than $10 billion. Contrast that to Indonesia's recent amnesty , which imposed a tax of just 4%, and drew out $300 billion in hidden wealth * reportedly including $30 billion declared by a son of former dictator Suharto. Of course, such a move in India would not deliver an instant populist punch and would entail the hard work of marketing the benefits to the masses.
Suggesting 4% tax on black money
I find this self defeating because it will never encourage anybody to pay taxes - because amnesty involves paying only a fraction of tax than originally due!


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Originally Posted by Guite View Post
Yesterday I traveled by Uber. There is a PayTM sticker on the window, so I presumed that I can pay by PayTM. On approaching my destination I asked, just to confirm, whether I xan pay using PayTM? He said no. I asked him why? He said that he has to go stand in queue to cash it, so he will lose time. So he does not accept it at this time. So our hype about going digital has been stopped in its track!
I have always paid Uber through PayTM, I believe Uber drivers do not have options for NOT taking PayTM. Only if your PayTM balance is not sufficient, then you may pay cash - but PayTM is always accepted.

Last edited by JLS : 21st November 2016 at 15:00. Reason: Added another quote!
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Old 21st November 2016, 14:57   #1112
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Default Re: Government scraps Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes!

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Suggesting 4% tax on black money
I find this self defeating because it will never encourage anybody to pay taxes - because amnesty involves paying only a fraction of tax than originally due!
Absolutely correct. Vested interests have been planting stories in mainstream media to confuse the people and somehow thwart the ongoing process of demonetization. Strangely, such people are unwilling to give a chance to see if we may have a better future through demonetization.
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Old 21st November 2016, 15:00   #1113
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Originally Posted by Guite View Post
Yesterday I traveled by Uber. There is a PayTM sticker on the window, so I presumed that I can pay by PayTM. On approaching my destination I asked, just to confirm, whether I xan pay using PayTM? He said no. I asked him why? He said that he has to go stand in queue to cash it, so he will lose time. So he does not accept it at this time. So our hype about going digital has been stopped in its track!

The guy conned you. Uber driver's HAVE to accept PayTM or Call Credit card - they can't refuse that
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Old 21st November 2016, 15:06   #1114
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Default Re: Government scraps Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes!

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Originally Posted by Guite View Post
Yesterday I traveled by Uber. There is a PayTM sticker on the window, so I presumed that I can pay by PayTM. On approaching my destination I asked, just to confirm, whether I xan pay using PayTM? He said no. I asked him why? He said that he has to go stand in queue to cash it, so he will lose time. So he does not accept it at this time. So our hype about going digital has been stopped in its track!
Completely OT on this thread, but since you brought it up thought of providing some additional information.
1. In UBER, you can pay by card or payTM wallet or cash. The payTM wallet is attached to your UBER Id and you grant permission to UBER to debit from the wallet.
2. If you pay by your PayTM wallet, the money goes to UBER's account and NOT the driver's or taxi-owner's account. UBER apparently does a once-a-week settlement to the taxi-owner's bank account. There is no standing in line.
3. The customer decides his/her mode of payment and the driver does NOT have any say in this.

What you seemed to have done is chosen "cash" as mode of payment while requesting the ride and then offered to pay to the driver's own payTM account (instead of UBER's account). This is not how UBER works and the driver has every right not to accept this mode of payment in this particular scenario.
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Old 21st November 2016, 16:15   #1115
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Default Re: Government scraps Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes!

After 2 days of gap from Internet, I started reading the comments by members from where I left. As we keep putting our points across one after another, just to prove what we support, we have forgotten what we feel.

Even I hate few political parties and take them in negative whenever they say something. This is very natural human tendency, that's what the base of democracy. But while opting for one's own believe, we are getting away from the agenda and moving into non-matters. Cynicism has took us to extreme, our thought-process are categorized as 'Bhakt' or 'Anti National', it has been stressful to just think.

Point is, we need to take actions and while planning any action we can not be 100% sure if it will succeed or fail. And in democracy, all actions have us - common people - as a part to make it a success. If Govt gave us money to build a toilet and we use the toilet as store room and still use the field, that is a different issue all together.

Coming back to implementation, we are so big and populous, any implementation will have issues.
I have paid road tax and registration fees of my KA registered bike in Pune in March. Still waiting for the paper RC, implementation is broke. So should I ditch the idea or policy behind having an RC? In fact looking at implementation at Govt level at different schemes, I think the brave bank employees who are salaried like us, are keeping the wheel rotating. The bank guys are doing a tremendous job, no argument in that. The supply chain is working day and night, the money supply schedule has come down to 6 days from 21 days. The printing machines are working over capacity, all those people working there, are working round the clock.

End of the day, whether we will make the 'idea' a success or wash it down the drain is up to us.

Last edited by SDP : 22nd November 2016 at 21:40. Reason: Corrected grammar and sentence formation for better readability
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Old 21st November 2016, 16:21   #1116
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Default Re: Government scraps Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes!

One weird thought which has been running across my mind. The Government had a proposal to change Financial Year from April-Mar to Jan-Dec. So on Dec 31st, the account books would be closed and they can start afresh from Jan 2017. Plausible scenario right!! (Banks wrote off KF loans as well and we're not even into 2017 yet)

What would be the impact? Would it make life easier from economic stand point for the Govt AND/OR put general public in more misery?

Last edited by akhil_007 : 21st November 2016 at 16:24.
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Old 21st November 2016, 17:09   #1117
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Default Re: Government scraps Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes!

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Originally Posted by JLS View Post
Suggesting 4% tax on black money
I find this self defeating because it will never encourage anybody to pay taxes
I like the option of a penalty but not too stiff. I am a salaried guy and have no other source of income other than a few bad investments that just lose money than make. Reading the article, if Indonesia was able to mop up 30 times more in amnesty than India with about 40% of our GDP, it has some merit. I do not advocate something as low as 4% but a system that works is what should be emulated rather than trying to blaze a new path.
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Old 21st November 2016, 17:55   #1118
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Default Re: Government scraps Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes!

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Originally Posted by akhil_007 View Post
One weird thought which has been running across my mind. The Government had a proposal to change Financial Year from April-Mar to Jan-Dec. So on Dec 31st, the account books would be closed and they can start afresh from Jan 2017. Plausible scenario right!! (Banks wrote off KF loans as well and we're not even into 2017 yet)

What would be the impact? Would it make life easier from economic stand point for the Govt AND/OR put general public in more misery?
This is just a proposal, as far as I can tell. To operationalize it I imagine an act of parliament is needed. Once that is done, the following needs to happen:
  1. A lot of rules have to be rewritten. Many forms have to be changed.
  2. Accounting standards might be affected. ICAI, SEBI and several other organisations and professional bodies need to get involved.
  3. POS, Tax, Auditing etc. software will have to change. Vendors will need time to do this (will be a bit of Y2K I imagine).
None of this is going to happen by 1/1/2017. That is, it is not a plausible scenario at all.

Quote:
Originally Posted by VKumar View Post
I would request everyone to once go through what Ruchir has to say.

Populist nationalism cannot paper over economic chaos unleashed by demonetisation drive
http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/A...21112016018050
Yet another article that touts the author's suggestion as the one-true-way of getting rid of black money. If I had a thousand-rupee note for every such article, I would have been South India's leading landfill vendor by now. And it is risible that he considers Poland, Indonesia, Pakistan etc. as economies comparable to India's.
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Old 21st November 2016, 17:57   #1119
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Default Re: Government scraps Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes!

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Originally Posted by diyguy View Post
I like the option of a penalty but not too stiff. I am a salaried guy and have no other source of income other than a few bad investments that just lose money than make. Reading the article, if Indonesia was able to mop up 30 times more in amnesty than India with about 40% of our GDP, it has some merit. I do not advocate something as low as 4% but a system that works is what should be emulated rather than trying to blaze a new path.
Amnesty scheme implemented in India had provision of paying taxes only at the applied slabs, If I understand it correctly - I find that perfectly ok, no penalty. However after amnesty period is over, a steep penalty is imposed, on which people are debating.
However in case of Indonesia, amnesty scheme itself offered paying tax at a bracket lower than normal income tax slab. This I believe is a cheating and injustice to the honest and tax paying citizens.
Why should we emulate a system if it implies unfair and unjust way?
believe me, there would have been even bigger hue and cry in country like ours if some such crazy amnesty scheme was on offer.
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Old 21st November 2016, 18:15   #1120
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Default Re: Government scraps Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes!

Today, 0 min wait at ATM dispensing Rs 2000 note & about 10min wait for machine dispensing 500 rupee notes! This is at SBI branch in Mumbai. Things looking better it seems. But still i see long queue at various banks as early as 8:30 am in the morning.
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Old 21st November 2016, 18:23   #1121
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But still i see long queue at various banks as early as 8:30 am in the morning.
Seems to me bulk of the people are lining up in front of the PSU banks as opposed to the private banks - is it because they don't know that they can use any bank for currency exchange, or is it because PSU banks are servicing them better (or has better access to new currency, or both)?

I went to HDFC Bank Karthik Nagar branch; stood in queue for about 20 minutes to withdraw Rs. 10K. Got 4 crisp 2K notes and a crisp bundle of a hundred Rs. 20 notes.

No bank it seems to me is operating off-site ATMs.
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Old 21st November 2016, 18:54   #1122
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Default Re: Government scraps Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes!

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Originally Posted by binand View Post
Seems to me bulk of the people are lining up in front of the PSU banks as opposed to the private banks - is it because they don't know that they can use any bank for currency exchange, or is it because PSU banks are servicing them better (or has better access to new currency, or both)?
I think it varies from place to place. Here in Hyderabad I am seeing bigger queues outside the private banks. In fact Bank of India and ICICI are in the same complex near my house. Everyday I see huge, sepentine queues outside the ICICI but almost no crowd outside BOI. I have an account with both banks. So this Saturday I decided to try my luck with BOI. Walked in only to realize that they have no cash since last 4 days and expect "something" by 24th Nov! I was left agape. Of course the admin officer very helpfully lets me know that the Andhra Bank next door and the BoB are also sailing in the same boat. No wonder there is no queue outside.

On a side note, I think private banks like HDFC are taking far better care of their customers than many others. Again, I do not have any metrics or statistics to show for it but looking at the way they are walking the extra mile, like some employee or the other coming out and talking to the people in queue or answering some questions on the fly, makes me believe so. Also, if the PSU banks are not getting cash everyday but the private banks are I wonder whose miss is this! Are the PSU banks more lax on this aspect or is it that the RBI is biased towards the private banks?

Last edited by Zappo : 21st November 2016 at 18:56.
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Old 21st November 2016, 18:56   #1123
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Default Re: Government scraps Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes!

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Originally Posted by JLS View Post
However in case of Indonesia, amnesty scheme itself offered paying tax at a bracket lower than normal income tax slab.
I agree on the hue and cry it will generate, but now, the folks who got into the tax payer attention cannot go back and going forward all their income will be taxable at normal rates. Isnt it better than paying very miniscule amounts? Wonder what the reaction has been in Indonesia.
This is a very debatable point and it is probably for historians and CFOs to deliberate about which system is better in the long run. From my perspective, since it uncovered 300B vs India's 10B, I am of the opinion that the Indonesia model works
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Old 21st November 2016, 19:07   #1124
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Originally Posted by Zappo View Post
Also, if the PSU banks are not getting cash everyday but the private banks are I wonder whose miss is this! Are the PSU banks more lax on this aspect or is it that the RBI is biased towards the private banks?
I was at Kotak Mahindra bank on Saturday and what I was told by the manager is that RBI is not taking back the old denomination notes on a daily basis from all the branches. Cash has to be kept in predefined 'bonded' areas in the branch - and the space in each branch is limited. Now with the old notes not getting taken out daily, space remaining in the bank for new currency to be stored in the bank gets lesser - and thus they cant get in the new currency.

While I bought his argument - later when I came to think of it, the smaller branches can surely move the old currency in their 'bonded rooms' at their larger branches / local / regional offices. Another thing was that while the smaller branches seem to have run out of cash, the larger branches seem to still be dispensing cash and even had ATMs running till late in the night.

It could all be down to how the banks are managing the supply chain of cash across their branches.
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Old 21st November 2016, 19:11   #1125
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Default Re: Government scraps Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes!

This thread has been the hottest in team-bhp for a while now. Many are sharing their experiences and opinions in this "non-political" forum. This is a welcome break from all the "political" opinions we see in the media.

Apologies if this turns out to be a long post. I had some time in the weekend to myself, so I thought why not do some research on the events leading up to demonetization. Particularly I was interested to know why Nov. 8th was the day of announcement of demonetization.

Best way to understand the chronology is to look at the RBI notifications issued to banks on a regular basis. These notifications are all available in their website at https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/NotificationUser.aspx and very much in the public domain.

If you closely read many notifications, RBI (in line with Govt. policies) have been issuing several directives to banks to ease retail banking norms for general public.

In the interest of time and space, I am not going to cut and paste links for all the notifications I have mentioned below. I will just give the date and title with my analysis of the notification. In some places I have pasted an extract for better explanation. You can go to the above link and read the full notification if needed.

Jul 16, 2015 : Guidelines on issue of ATM-cum-debit cards

Quote:
3. As a precursor to moving towards a less-cash economy, it is necessary to inculcate the habit of using electronic payment channels among bank customers. With this in view, it has been decided to permit co-operative banks which are CBS enabled, to issue ATM cards/ ATM-cum-debit cards in tie-up with a sponsor bank.


This was the first notification I saw where RBI clearly mentioned its intention of going to a "less-cash" economy. Note that, this direction was landmark in the sense it gave many non-banking firms ability to issue ATM facility. Co-oprative banks in rural areas were the immediate beneficiaries of such a scheme.


Aug 27, 2015 : Detection of Counterfeit Notes

Quote:
i. Over the Counter

Banknotes tendered over the counter should be examined for authenticity through machines and such of these determined as a counterfeit one, shall be stamped as "COUNTERFEIT NOTE" and impounded as detailed in Annex I. Each such impounded note shall be recorded under authentication, in a separate register.


Impounding "counterfeit notes" was always a challenge for banks. RBI issued guidelines to impound fakes such that they could be sucked out of the system. But, how many people came to bank for depositing cash? I am sure RBI or banks did not achieve the targets regarding counterfeits.

Sept 24, 2015 : Banknotes with new numbering pattern and special features for the visually impaired

Quote:
3. Special features for the visually impaired have been introduced in order to make it easier for them to identify banknotes, the size of the Identification Mark in ₹ 100, 500 & 1000 denominations has been increased by 50% and angular bleed lines - 4 lines in 2 blocks in ₹ 100, 5 lines in 3 blocks in ₹ 500 and 6 lines in 4 blocks in ₹ 1000 denominations, have been introduced.


This is a very interesting notification. If you notice, some of these security features are carried over to the new Rs. 2000 and Rs. 500 notes. I am pretty sure, post introduction of these security features, there were no fakes of this particular format notes.

Dec 23, 2015 : Withdrawal of all old series of Banknotes issued prior to 2005

This is a notification which was issued time and again, in fact, each such notification mentions extension of the deadline for withdrawal of old notes. The Pre-2005 notes were the ones which could be easily faked. The security features were compromised and many intelligence agencies cited presence of printing facilities abroad that print these notes. Again, I think, RBI/banks wouldn't have got sufficient deposits of these old notes given the number of cash circulation and black money in the system.

June 30, 2016 : Pre-2005 series of Banknotes - Revision of exchange facility

Six months after the notification of Pre-2005 series notes, RBI revised the exchange policy so that more such notes could be sucked out of the system.

July 20, 2016 : Master Direction on Currency Distribution & Exchange Scheme (CDES) based on performance in rendering customer service to the members of public

Quote:
The maximum amount of reimbursement for the machines will be as follows–

For Metro / Urban areas –

1. Cash Recyclers – 50% of the actual cost of the machine or ₹ 2,00,000 whichever is lower
2. ATMs dispensing lower denomination notes (up to denomination ₹ 100) – 50% of the actual cost of the machine or ₹ 2,00,000 whichever is lower
.
For Semi-urban / Rural areas –
1. Cash Recyclers – 60% of the actual cost of the machine or ₹ 2,50,000 whichever is lower
2. ATMs dispensing lower denomination notes (up to denomination ₹ 100) – 60% of the actual cost of the machine or ₹ 2,50,000 whichever is lower


RBI came up this scheme to incentivize banks so that they can be prodded to improve the circulation of smaller notes. Note the below lines in the notification. You can well imagine which direction RBI and the Govt. was moving to.


Sept 8, 2016 : Income Declaration Scheme, 2016 – Acceptance of Cash Over the Counter

Everyone know about this scheme and how political it turned out to be. Though this scheme was introduced sometime in July, this notification is for accepting cash over the counter by banks. Banks were hesitant to accept large cash from public under this scheme. This was another attempt at sucking out unaccounted/undeclared cash from the system. Note that prior to this scheme, RBI had already given clear directions regarding counterfeits and pre-2005 notes. So, a base of setup prior to the roll out of this scheme.

Nov 02, 2016 : Dispensation of Rs.100 denomination banknotes through exclusive ATMs

Quote:
3. In keeping with the objectives of Clean Note Policy and to ensure that genuine requirement of members of public for Rs. 100 denomination banknotes are met, the banks should increase dispensation of Rs. 100 banknotes through ATMs which are widely used for distribution of banknotes for retail use.
4. With a view to encourage the banks in that direction, it has been decided to conduct a pilot project wherein 10% of the ATMs in the country will be calibrated to dispense Rs.100 banknotes exclusively. You are, therefore, advised to configure / calibrate 10% of your ATMs to facilitate this arrangement.
5. As the process involved in configuring the requisite number of machines is not complex, the banks are required to complete the exercise within 15 days from the date of the circular and report compliance. For this purpose, banks are free to select the branches with the sample covering relatively large number of centres / states.


This notification seem to be the most direct yet from RBI to the banks. There was clear instruction to banks to calibrate and re-configure ATMs to dispense Rs. 100 notes.

But something happened from then till the day of announcement that is Nov 8th 2016.As you can see, RBI had given 15 days to banks to comply with this request. So, why didn't RBI/Govt wait for 15 days till the ATMs would be re-calibrated?

I strongly believe there was a leak at the top. The new Rs. 2000 notes denomination photos appeared in whatsapp a day earlier. I also received the messages albeit there were some funny add-on like GPS chips etc. I think this leak was totally unexpected. Once if more details of the new notes emerged, any CA or banking official would have realized that the ATM's had to be reconfigured to fit the notes into the cassettes. People could have definitely sensed that something was amiss and probably the old notes would be demonetized.

Note that on Oct 12th Chandrababu Naidu claimed that the maximum undeclared wealth disclosed under the IDS scheme was from Hyderabad from someone to the tune of Rs. 10000 crore. Now, that is a whopping sum. In the same speech he also mentioned demonetizing Rs. 500/Rs. 1000 notes.

Was there a leak somewhere that he came to know about it months in advance about this whole strategy? Govt had categorically stated in various fora that under the IDS scheme the details of people will be kept absolute secret. How did he know the figure then? (Ref : http://indianexpress.com/article/ind...naidu-3078669/ )
Besides the above revelation, it is also possible that the leak of the new Rs. 2000 must have made the Govt/RBI sit up and make a decision. Otherwise, it is highly unlikely that the PM will announce such a decision just a day before he was supposed to go to Japan ( Note that foreign trips are decided months in advance)Another point why this sudden decision .. The new notes have the signature of the new RBI governor who officially took charge from Sept. 1st. For printing, the plates needed to be signed. So, I think the plates were finalized and signed only after he took charge. The printing of Rs. 2000 notes would have started post him taking charge. I think the printing of Rs. 500 notes may not have started till after the announcement.

RBI may not have thought of introducing them immediately. That explains why the new Rs. 500 notes are coming into the market very slowly. At least a week after the announcement, people had not seen the new Rs. 500 notes. To squeeze the black money and the counterfeits, it was necessary to keep this announcement or rather intention of demonetization as absolute secret. Else the entire purpose of sucking the counterfeits and black money out of the system would be defeated. Even if a whiff of the intention leaked out and how much ever denial the Govt. made, they could never have been able to effectively execute this decision in future. All black money hoarders would have started getting rid of cash in various ways which could have in fact played with prices of real estate, gold/diamond etc. This would have been more harmful in the longer term.I am not hinting that there was selective leak by the Govt. itself as that would also have been disastrous given the kind of politicians we see in the power corridors of the Govt. As a last note : See the below notification post the announcement

Nov 09, 2016 : ATMs –Non-dispensing of Old High Denomination Notes – Closure of operations

Quote:
II. Recalibration of ATMs to dispense ₹ 100 and ₹ 50 banknotes through ATMs

Banks shall ensure (if required, through their outsourced / managed services providers) that:
at least one cassette in each ATM is configured to dispense banknotes of ₹ 100 denomination immediately.
ATM fit notes (fresh and/or recyclable) are supplied to the necessary agencies to ensure the above; and
If feasible, additional cassettes in the ATMs to dispense non-SBN banknotes are configured.
This also indicates that, Govt./RBI had beefed up small notes availability to banks, however, many banks did not get enough time to recalibrate the ATMS. Or maybe many didn;t think it was was not as easy as it would seem.

Well, ask an IT software engineer how long it will take to change the size of the column that stores address in any large application.

Note : The above is entirely my personal opinion after analyzing the RBI notifications and juxtaposing them with today's situation. I do not subscribe to any political party or their ideology.
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