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Old 24th November 2016, 15:15   #1276
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Default Re: Government scraps Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes!

I have taken part in the survey, having seen the results looks like I'm in the minority section.

It is well and good to gauge the public reaction, but this method is skewed in my opinion. Majority of the people whom took part in the survey will be having access to plastic money. What is the point of getting opinion from this demographic, whom in most likelihood will be the least affected.

The voice of majority doesn't mean it is right, it is just the popular choice.
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Old 24th November 2016, 15:27   #1277
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Default Re: Government scraps Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes!

Since the PM's app is being talked of, first point IMO is that, the survey they have conducted; which got them over 90% of support, does it actually hold any water? Here are a few questions:
  • How many members here have the PM's app in their phones?
  • How many neutral/unbiased people have PM's app in their phones?
  • How many village fellows, farmers, daily wage laborers, drivers etc have PM's app in their phone?
  • How many people were aware of this survey and how many of them were able to take part in it?

These questions; especially the second and third, if answered, are enough to prove the credibility of the survey conducted and how much water the survey results hold. Oh c'mon man, what's the credibility of such a survey which is actually conducted on a sample size where most of the people are biased (I have no political party app in my phone), very less diversity and a huge ground is already left completely untapped?

Now two pieces of news I would like to share:

Lakhs of daily wagers have begun losing their jobs
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/c...w/55588110.cms

6 hurt in lathicharge outside a bank, these are the people who were there in the queue for getting their 'own money'.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/c...w/55588131.cms

Farmers are forced to sell the harvest of potato for 300 bucks instead of 700, as per an another report in TOI.

Its already over 15 days and situation may look normalized in our high profile cities; especially inside the IT parks. But what about the tier 2 and tier 3 cities? one can't just turn their back to the sufferings of others saying "Here everything is fine", you never know when the fire may reach your doorstep (If farmers end up jamming the Delhi then?). Although OT, still here is a small story to share, it actually fits well in the current scenario:

Quote:
The Rat Trap In The Farm House

A rat looked through a crack in the wall to see the farmer and his wife opening a package. What food might it contain ? He was aghast to discover that it was a rat trap. Retreating to the barnyard the rat proclaimed the warning; "Thereís a rat trap in the house, a rat trap in the house!"

The chicken clucked and scratched, raised her head and said, "Excuse me, Mr. Rat, I can tell this is a grave concern to you, but it is of no consequence to me. I cannot be bothered by it."

The rat turned to the goat and told him, "Thereís a rat trap in the house, a rat trap in the house!". "I am so very sorry, Mr. Rat," sympathized the goat, "but there is nothing I can do about it but pray. Be assured that you are in my prayers."

The rat turned to the pig. He said, "Like wow, Mr. Rat, a rat trap. I am in grave danger. Duh?" So the rat returned to the house, head down and dejected, to face the farmerís rat trap alone.

That very night a sound was heard throughout the house, like the sound of a rat trap catching its prey. The farmerís wife rushed to see what was caught. In the darkness, she did not see that it was a venomous snake whose tail the trap had caught. The snake bit the farmerís wife. The farmer rushed her to the hospital. She returned home with a fever.

Now everyone knows you treat a fever with fresh chicken soup, so the farmer took his hatchet to the barnyard for the soupís main ingredient.

His wifeís sickness continued so that friends and neighbors came to sit with her around the clock. To feed them the farmer butchered the goat.

The farmerís wife did not get well. She died, and so many people came for her funeral that the farmer had the pig slaughtered to provide meat for all of them to eat and for funeral expenses.

So moral of this story : The next time you hear that someone is facing a problem and think that it does not concern you, remember that when there is a rat trap in the house, the whole barnyardís at risk.
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Old 24th November 2016, 15:54   #1278
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Default Re: Government scraps Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes!

Equally capable of being seen as OT, but I will still post it at this risk of incurring moderator ire:

A poem by John Donne, No man is an island, 500 years ago:
"No man is an island,
Entire of itself,
Every man is a piece of the continent,
A part of the main.
If a clod be washed away by the sea,
Europe is the less.
As well as if a promontory were.
As well as if a manor of thy friend's
Or of thine own were:
Any man's death diminishes me,
Because I am involved in mankind,
And therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls;
It tolls for thee.
"

The last two lines never fail to move me, hence in italics.
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Old 24th November 2016, 15:54   #1279
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Default Re: Government scraps Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes!

Quote:
Originally Posted by mayankk View Post
That was figurative. As in asking someone to rate you on scale of 1-10, but the available choices are only 9 and 10.
The PM's app has some instances of no option of disagreeing. You must agree.
I agree, questions 6 and 7 should have been given a 'disagree' option, instead of 'Can't say/Don't know'. But other questions have fair options.

The results of the app survey of over 90% positive response is over optimistic, I think. Most other surveys peg it at 70-80-% which is what I have experienced.

Question list for those that didn't install the app: http://caclub.in/10-questions-survey...by-pm-mr-modi/
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Old 24th November 2016, 15:57   #1280
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Default Re: Government scraps Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes!

The examples of labourers returning home and potato prices, etc are temporary problems, which you may agree with but the effects of blackmoney, terrorism, naxalism are very far reaching. I am not claiming that it would be solved forever but things have started moving.

About the rat story all I can say is that we have been reading many emotional sob stories as to how a medical student gets admission through black money and is given good marks by the professor after taking bribe and one day the same professor's daughter comes to be operated by the same doctor in critical condition but couldn't be saved.

The rat story also proves that the whole country is waiting patiently in the queues as they believe that the problem is of everyone. Even many Bhpians voluntarily helping in many ways in which they can which can be interpreted in either
"because they have no choice but to do that so that the maids, drivers continue to serve them without interruption" OR "they are doing it out of genuine concern" depends on how one interprets it or to with which lens does one looks at the PM and the Govt.

Quote:
Originally Posted by VKumar View Post
Although OT, still here is a small story to share, it actually fits well in the current scenario:
I am yet waiting for an answer as to how this scheme should have been implemented without inconveniencing the public. Is it in the same way the problem of Air Pollution in Delhi is being addressed.

Last edited by carwatcher : 24th November 2016 at 16:03.
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Old 24th November 2016, 16:53   #1281
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Default Re: Government scraps Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes!

Quote:
Originally Posted by ecenandu View Post
I have taken part in the survey, having seen the results looks like I'm in the minority section.

It is well and good to gauge the public reaction, but this method is skewed in my opinion. Majority of the people whom took part in the survey will be having access to plastic money. What is the point of getting opinion from this demographic, whom in most likelihood will be the least affected.

The voice of majority doesn't mean it is right, it is just the popular choice.
You and me both seem to be in the minority. I was surprised by the results also. Even though I do agree with the govts move but the implementation is totally off. I can bear the cash crunch for a week or two but seeing how the ATMs are cashless is causing a lot of discomfort. Plastic money is valid only at certain points of transactions. For daily needs the cards are useless. 100 rs notes are running out like nothing. Even today the ATMs around my neighborhood were empty.
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Old 24th November 2016, 17:36   #1282
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Default Re: Government scraps Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes!

Toll suspension is extended till Dec 2. I think it is time to start assessing the cost of the whole demonetization effort. Considering economic output decline, I wouldn't be surprised if the loss from whole demonetization story is more than the fake currency & black money recovered.

This is from Dr MMS:
Quote:
Dr Manmohan Singh, an eminent economist, criticised the government for issuing fresh instructions and modifying the rules every day on the conditions under which people can withdraw their money.

"That reflects very poorly on the Prime Minister's Office, the finance minister's office and on the Reserve Bank of India. I am very sorry that the Reserve Bank has been exposed to this kind of criticism which I think is fully justified," the former prime minister said.
Fully agree on this. RBI trying to fix a limit for wedding expense, give me a break. Look to what extent an institution like RBI has been reduced to. I hope they have better business than verifying proof of wedding expense.

Last edited by msdivy : 24th November 2016 at 18:03.
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Old 24th November 2016, 18:15   #1283
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Default Re: Government scraps Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes!

Quote:
Originally Posted by carwatcher View Post
I am yet waiting for an answer as to how this scheme should have been implemented without inconveniencing the public.
I have answered this in the dim history of this very long thread, but let me take another shot at this; not perfect, but from my real experience of not being inconvenienced any way - and not because I had some one else standing in queues for me.

I live in a housing complex, and just outside it, as is common everywhere, is the required support system of chemist, small supermarket that sells everything needed for daily life, bakery, a fruit and vegetable vendor or two and some more shops. These shops are for cash purchases, almost all our other purchases are by card.

All the aforesaid vendors have not stopped accepting the old 500/1000 notes till today. In the early days, they had difficulty returning change, and some required buying rounded off to the old notes being offered. Today, even this difficulty has gone. Because of this, I changed my mind about depositing my cash in hand; why do that by standing in one line and stand in another line to take out new money when my old money works just fine? There is nothing dishonest happening, no one is laundering money because they are not selling their goods for higher prices to anyone, as would be needed for laundering to happen. All are regularly depositing collections in the bank, as they always have been. Presumably all are paying income tax; these are savvy people. They are not losing business, I am not being inconvenienced, the government is not losing income tax. And to a small extent, pressure on the queues is being reduced because neither I nor my wife are standing in them. Not even once till now.

By December 20th, to avoid a last minute rush, whatever little cash is left in the form of old notes, I will deposit in the bank. If all gets over, hopefully I will get new money without standing in a line; at least in cities like Pune, I expect that to be the case by Dec 20th.

This is not a unique case; there are many others like this that I know of. On this thread I had quoted a newspaper report laying out how just this is being done in a rural area about 50 kms from Pune. No panic there as well, just sturdy common sense being applied. Some one here posted a similar thing from Tamil Nadu.

I think that enough application of all the brilliant minds in GOI Delhi could have come out with methods that follow this common sense driven approach, without an earthshaking impact on black money discovery. But the satisfaction of having done something bold and earthshaking - shock, awe and masterful command - may have perhaps been missing; I don't know if demonstrating that was a motive.

As for us, we are just thankful to the sturdy common sense shown by our supporting eco system. And I know enough of the law to know that I have not broken any law. I think each of our vendors is also sure of himself enough to know that as well.

Actually, I ended up in a good place because I had more 500 notes than usual; I sold my old Bullet on Nov 12 for Rs 60k to a friend's chauffeur and had no hesitation in taking his 500 notes for this non taxable transaction - no backdating hanky panky either, and definitely no money laundering. So the rise in my cash on hand caused by this is coming in quite handy at this time. And I have done someone else the same service that my vendors have rendered to me.

I am happy to answer to any authority of GOI the legal validity of what I have done and am still doing, if asked; not to anyone else.

Last edited by Sawyer : 24th November 2016 at 18:23.
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Old 24th November 2016, 18:27   #1284
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Default Re: Government scraps Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes!

Now, toll suspension on national highways extended to Dec 2nd.
Source: tweet by Nitin Gadkari
Attached Thumbnails
Government scraps Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes!-toll.png  

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Old 24th November 2016, 18:51   #1285
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Default Re: Government scraps Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes!

Quote:
Originally Posted by ecenandu View Post
I have taken part in the survey, having seen the results looks like I'm in the minority section.

It is well and good to gauge the public reaction, but this method is skewed in my opinion. Majority of the people whom took part in the survey will be having access to plastic money. What is the point of getting opinion from this demographic, whom in most likelihood will be the least affected.

The voice of majority doesn't mean it is right, it is just the popular choice.
You should add one more important thing that will skew the voting scheme and make it absurd: people who support the move will be more motivated to download the app, key in their credentials and extend the support.

Quote:
Originally Posted by VKumar View Post
Since the PM's app is being talked of, first point IMO is that, the survey they have conducted; which got them over 90% of support, does it actually hold any water? Here are a few questions:
  • How many members here have the PM's app in their phones?
  • How many neutral/unbiased people have PM's app in their phones?
  • How many village fellows, farmers, daily wage laborers, drivers etc have PM's app in their phone?
  • How many people were aware of this survey and how many of them were able to take part in it?

Its already over 15 days and situation may look normalized in our high profile cities; especially inside the IT parks. But what about the tier 2 and tier 3 cities? one can't just turn their back to the sufferings of others saying "Here everything is fine", you never know when the fire may reach your doorstep (If farmers end up jamming the Delhi then?). Although OT, still here is a small story to share, it actually fits well in the current scenario:
I remember reading supreme court or high court response citing that the situation may as well turn riot like in a few instances.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sawyer View Post
There is nothing dishonest happening, no one is laundering money because they are not selling their goods for higher prices to anyone, as would be needed for laundering to happen. All are regularly depositing collections in the bank, as they always have been. Presumably all are paying income tax; these are savvy people. They are not losing business, I am not being inconvenienced, the government is not losing income tax. And to a small extent, pressure on the queues is being reduced because neither I nor my wife are standing in them. Not even once till now.
You are right, I don't see any real merit in Govt announcing sudden demise of old currency.

1. The new currency can only be released by Banks.
2. The new currency can always be governed to be released against an account in the Bank.
3. The new currency's path can be traced and transactions accounted for if everyone keep their books clean and declared.

It is the No.3 that needs to be enforced by the Govt via IRS department. Not sudden knee-jerk
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Old 24th November 2016, 18:54   #1286
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Default Re: Government scraps Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes!

Quote:
Originally Posted by dhuli View Post
Now, toll suspension on national highways extended to Dec 2nd.
Source: tweet by Nitin Gadkari
And it's extended once again!
I guess now it's clear that how short sighted and unplanned this step was, such is the situation that the government is yet to control it till date.
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Old 24th November 2016, 19:49   #1287
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VKumar View Post
And it's extended once again!
I guess now it's clear that how short sighted and unplanned this step was, such is the situation that the government is yet to control it till date.
Yes, the announcement and the decision was totally unplanned. All this because there was a leak that prompted a surprise decision.
The current issues being faced by people is because of shortage of both Rs. 500 notes and Rs. 100 notes. Rs. 100 notes seem to be not getting circulated properly and the new Rs. 500 notes is not coming into the market.
If the Govt. do not move on making sufficient Rs. 500 notes available as soon as possible, the entire scheme will be in danger of flopping miserably.
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Old 24th November 2016, 19:53   #1288
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Default Re: Government scraps Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes!

What's against the govt. here isn't that there's stuff that they haven't gotten under control. That was entirely expected with the magnitude of the move and the size of our population, and can be understood and excused to a reasonable extent.

What puts a real question mark against them is they still seem to be grappling with 'what' they need to control, with new items tumbling out of the pandora's box every day, or existing ones taking on larger magnitudes.

Needing time to control your variables is understandable, not even knowing a good chunk of your variables is inexcusable. This isn't a Sunday Fair exercise in a contained environment.
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Old 24th November 2016, 19:55   #1289
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Default Re: Government scraps Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sawyer View Post
....
but let me take another shot at this; not perfect, but from my real experience of not being inconvenienced any way - and not because I had some one else standing in queues for me.
.....

Because of this, I changed my mind about depositing my cash in hand; why do that by standing in one line and stand in another line to take out new money when my old money works just fine? There is nothing dishonest happening, no one is laundering money because they are not selling their goods for higher prices to anyone, as would be needed for laundering to happen. All are regularly depositing collections in the bank, as they always have been. Presumably all are paying income tax; these are savvy people. They are not losing business, I am not being inconvenienced, the government is not losing income tax. And to a small extent, pressure on the queues is being reduced because neither I nor my wife are standing in them. Not even once till now.

By December 20th, to avoid a last minute rush, whatever little cash is left in the form of old notes, I will deposit in the bank. If all gets over, hopefully I will get new money without standing in a line; at least in cities like Pune, I expect that to be the case by Dec 20th.

This is not a unique case; there are many others like this that I know of. On this thread I had quoted a newspaper report laying out how just this is being done in a rural area about 50 kms from Pune. No panic there as well, just sturdy common sense being applied. Some one here posted a similar thing from Tamil Nadu.
....
.
Lawyer sir, brilliantly explained.
Only thing I could understand from your post is that you are not facing any inconveniences, yours is not a unique case and even despite this sudden withdrawal of old currency notes, all honest income-tax paying junta is carrying on their day to day business.

Then why this colavari di sir?
Why should we look for any other way for implementing this scheme?
Anyways, I did see any suggestion for implementing currency note withdrawal scheme differently from your post.


Quote:
Originally Posted by alpha1 View Post
....

3. The new currency's path can be traced and transactions accounted for if everyone keep their books clean and declared.

It is the No.3 that needs to be enforced by the Govt via IRS department. Not sudden knee-jerk
How this could be done - any suggestion?

Last edited by JLS : 24th November 2016 at 19:58.
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Old 24th November 2016, 20:01   #1290
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Default Re: Government scraps Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes!

The cabinet meeting going right now may reduce the penalties from 200% to about 100% for applicable scenarios.

This is to bring more money into the banking. Going by present projections the money which is expected to be deposited is not more than 60% of free float.

If that is the case the whole exercise will lose credibility of targeting black money; rather it will hurt the economy so bad by sucking out so much money.

Hope common sense prevails.
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