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View Poll Results: Stocks as a percentage of my net assets are -
0 - 25% -- I'm like the most conservative Indians. I love FDs. 220 31.88%
26 - 50% -- I have a few stocks. 307 44.49%
51 - 75% -- I'm an active trader. 113 16.38%
76 - 100% -- Hey, I'm an i-banker!!! 50 7.25%
Voters: 690. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 20th September 2014, 20:22   #2551
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Hi,

I had changed my stance on Suven Lifescience from positive to negative on 18th July when the price was Rs 109. Guess what, now its trading at Rs 207!
Hi VindyWheels, A quick catch up on Suven Lifescience. Seems like its a very good story unfolding. There's a discussion happening on valuepickr.. Do you think it is worth taking a second look at it even though the price of the stock has run up a lot? I am planning to have a look at it again.

Last edited by sabsubs : 20th September 2014 at 20:24. Reason: Missed to quote VindyWheels post.
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Old 21st September 2014, 01:01   #2552
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Guys, what is your take on Sonata Software Ltd.? Currently, at the 52 wk high mark.

-Bhargav
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Old 22nd September 2014, 12:50   #2553
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Hi VindyWheels, With regards to Shilpa Medicare AGM, it would be great if you could update gist of the AGM. Seems like there's some good news came out of the AGM, the stock price has moved up quite a bit with good volumes being traded.
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Old 22nd September 2014, 13:44   #2554
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What is happening with the Kitex? almost 17% up today
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Old 22nd September 2014, 14:28   #2555
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What is happening with the Kitex? almost 17% up today
Seems like Motilal gave a buy signal hence the huge volume and the stock price is up almost 20% today. I am not sure about the board meeting outcome. Any updates on that?
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Old 23rd September 2014, 04:07   #2556
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Hi,

Kitex stock price movement could have been due to Motilal report giving a target of Rs 615, the board meeting was to appoint Earnst and Young as internal auditors. We also heard that the institutional interest is high with somebody or the other visiting the company every other day.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...w/43137574.cms

Shilpa AGM - the promoter's (MD, Mr Vishnukant Bhutada) speech was inspirational. The man came across as a visionary, firmly grounded and ethical. I would rate him as the best promoter I have met so far. Post AGM we were taken for a plant visit and there in a conference room MD took all our (there were some 25 analyst+investors) questions for nearly 2 hours. The company's edge in coming up with non-infringing processes for molecules going off patent in Oncology segment was the highlight for me. They have a neat pipeline with FY18 looking like a huge bumper year (based on major molecules going off-patent in which Shilpa can have major market share). The JV's sales will reflect fully only from FY16. USFDA has intimated that they will visit the company to ascertain the corrective measures. This is the immediate trigger for further uptick in stock price. Overall Shilpa looks like a solid long term story with a 5 year horizon, but sales/profits could be subdued this year.

Kaveri AGM - again the Chairman's speech and answers for investor queries were good. Mr Bhaskar Rao is also a first generation entrepreneur like Shilpa's MD. The company has a good pipeline of new seeds in Cotton and other crops. ATM, the relatively new cotton seed is picking up sales, especially in Maharashtra. This is very encouraging as Kaveri has 45% market share in AP, but only 9% share in Maharashtra which is the biggest market for cotton seeds. I had done a field survey in four districts of Maharashtra last May. The ground work done by Kaveri was evident there. After the AGM we met the ED, Mr Mithun Chand. Overall at Rs 870 I am quite bullish about Kaveri. They should do around 43-45 Rs EPS this year. Next year there could be further margin expansion as the company is able to charge higher price for its cotton seeds (in the just concluded season they could charge Rs 40 more per packet). The risks here - if at all nature's vagaries lead to lower seed production this year, the com could be left with lower inventory and secondly the risk that was always there with Kaveri - if the tax laws are modified to take out the current tax-free status, the margins would be impacted (but I feel even if this happens the business is more than decent).

I had also visited CCL plant at Guntur and interacted with the CS. Good business, looks promising. But a promoter meeting is required to ascertain the exact edge for the company. Hopefully that will happen in a month.

Cheers

Vindy
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Old 23rd September 2014, 10:25   #2557
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Hi,

Shilpa AGM - ...

Kaveri AGM - ....Overall at Rs 870 I am quite bullish about Kaveri.

Vindy
Really appreciate your willingness to share these info VindyWheels.

I opened the thread now to ask you if current fall of Kaveri needs any evaluation. I think I will stay invested seeing your optimism

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Old 23rd September 2014, 13:14   #2558
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Hi all,
I'm a new investor in stock market. I've started investing not more than six months ago. My portfolio contains stocks like Sun pharma, Pfizer, Strides, TWO, Eicher Motor etc.

Now I want all your advice on MMTC. I bought it at 96-97 level and as you can see I'm running in some loses at that counter. I'm not a trader. I can hold if it is good for the future. But the question is should I hold or book loss and shift to something else? Would love to hear the prospect of the company.
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Old 23rd September 2014, 13:24   #2559
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VindyWheels - Thanks for sharing info on Shilpa, CCL, and Kitex.

Last edited by Latheesh : 23rd September 2014 at 13:27.
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Old 23rd September 2014, 15:24   #2560
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Hi Rajesh, just curious...at what price did you enter Kaveri?

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Really appreciate your willingness to share these info VindyWheels.

I opened the thread now to ask you if current fall of Kaveri needs any evaluation. I think I will stay invested seeing your optimism

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Old 23rd September 2014, 16:23   #2561
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Hi VindyWheels, thank you very much for the updates on Kitex, Shilpa, Kaveri & CCL. I am closely looking at CCL. I read that their Vietnam operations are exempted from tax for the first 4 years and for the next 5 years its 50%. Is their Vietnam facility already operational?
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Old 23rd September 2014, 16:30   #2562
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Hi Rajesh, just curious...at what price did you enter Kaveri?
I entered when it was around 740 levels
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Old 23rd September 2014, 16:37   #2563
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Now I want all your advice on MMTC. I bought it at 96-97 level and as you can see I'm running in some loses at that counter. I'm not a trader. I can hold if it is good for the future. But the question is should I hold or book loss and shift to something else? Would love to hear the prospect of the company.
Hi Carpainter, Just a quick catch up on MMTC. I am not tracking this scrip and I have not analyzed it fundamentally. I had a quick look at the charts and it has broken a triple bottom and the chart has given out a sell signal moreover the stock price has gone down further. So it would be wise to take appropriate action if it goes down further.
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Old 23rd September 2014, 18:00   #2564
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It is operational and contributed to sales in the last quarter of FY14. This financial year they are expected to be run at 50% utilisation, hence around 5000-6000T sales from Vietnam plant apart from 14000T from India.

For me the story is all about Vietnam expansion. Tax holiday is one. Secondly Vietnam being the second largest producer of raw coffee and CCL's presence right in the largest coffee growing area there brings in lots of savings in logistics/inventory management. Vietnam also opens up new markets for CCL as the country has favourable trade treaties with big markets like Japan. The plant is in 25 acres with infrastructure for double the capacity already in place. Hence 10000T can be doubled to 20000T without much delay and without too much capex. Presence in Vietnam will also help Indian plant operations as anyway CCL is importing raw coffee for the Indian plant.

Plus if they even get a small success in retail sales in India, it will be a huge bonus.

My projections show that the company is trading at less than 10 times FY16 earnings. But I would like to meet the promoter and hear it from the horses mouth before getting too excited

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Hi VindyWheels, thank you very much for the updates on Kitex, Shilpa, Kaveri & CCL. I am closely looking at CCL. I read that their Vietnam operations are exempted from tax for the first 4 years and for the next 5 years its 50%. Is their Vietnam facility already operational?

Last edited by VindyWheels : 23rd September 2014 at 18:01.
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Old 23rd September 2014, 20:54   #2565
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For me the story is all about Vietnam expansion. Tax holiday is one. Secondly Vietnam being the second largest producer of raw coffee and CCL's presence right in the largest coffee growing area there brings in lots of savings in logistics/inventory management. Vietnam also opens up new markets for CCL as the country has favourable trade treaties with big markets like Japan. The plant is in 25 acres with infrastructure for double the capacity already in place. Hence 10000T can be doubled to 20000T without much delay and without too much capex. Presence in Vietnam will also help Indian plant operations as anyway CCL is importing raw coffee for the Indian plant.
Just trying to play devils advocate here. I do not track CCL.

What stops from other coffee manufacturers from doing the same? I mean, any big coffee manufacturer can set up a plant in Vietnam and get the same competitive advantage. Sorry if I am missing something here, do not see a moat just by reading the statement.
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