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View Poll Results: Stocks as a percentage of my net assets are -
0 - 25% -- I'm like the most conservative Indians. I love FDs. 219 32.02%
26 - 50% -- I have a few stocks. 302 44.15%
51 - 75% -- I'm an active trader. 113 16.52%
76 - 100% -- Hey, I'm an i-banker!!! 50 7.31%
Voters: 684. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 7th February 2015, 12:22   #2791
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Default Re: Do you play the stock market

JP Associates - as ajmat mentions - has too much debt on the books. They've sold their cement plants and are trying to improve their balance sheet. Currently, valuations are not expensive. If one wants to take a bet on the capex cycle recovery, it can be a multibagger in 3-4 years time.

Overall, quarterly results have been below par for most companies, particularly PSU banks and the market seems due for a correction/ consolidation around 8200-8600 levels. Obviously, global liquidity and the budget can be the game changers.

My hunch is - knowing the PM's modus operandi - he has taken time to understand issues & get an economic gameplan in place. He knows he cant win the next election unless he delivers jobs & economic growth. He has to act now since revival will take 2-3 years to translate into strong growth. So, my view is the budget will have innovative ideas and should be growth-oriented. I would be seriously disappointed if it is not - and my suspicion is markets could go lower to 7800 levels or so, if budget is below par. Equally, if its good, 9000+ is a certainty.

Wait to see !
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Old 8th February 2015, 19:37   #2792
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Recommend reading "Understanding Michael Porter by John Magretta" to understand what porter really means by strategy and competitive advantage.

Though I have read many books by Porter since my MBA days, I now realize I did not have a proper understanding of strategy and competitive advantage. Now I understand what strategy means with respect to value proposition, value chain, trade-offs, fit, and continuity of business. The examples given in the book (IKEA, Southwest Airlines etc) help to understand the concepts well.
Trade-off is the most interesting concept. I used to think that the best way for a business to grow is to satisfy as many customers as it can. Trade-off means that a company should ONLY serve the customers that are in line with its value proposition. Without Trade-off, the company will be compromising on its value proposition. For example, a value proposition by McDonalds is speed of delivery. When it tried to emulate Burger King and gain more customers by allowing them to customize their meal, it compromised on speed of delivery and the move backfired.

Another book I recommend to understand moats is "The Little Book That Builds Wealth by Pat Dorsey".

I lost interest in Irrational Exuberance after reading it for sometime. Planning to do a quick read and then read Outsiders - a book on great capital allocators in Business, like Buffett.
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Old 9th February 2015, 13:45   #2793
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People around me are saying that markets will also fall in coming days due to AAP coming to power in Delhi. Can some one please tell me why would this be a negative for the markets? People reasoning that BJP's charm is fading away. Although I fail to see how does AAP coming into Delhi changes anything, but still wanted to know views of fellow members here.
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Old 9th February 2015, 14:43   #2794
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@Saanil - Market behavior, or rather market player's behavior, is never rational. Don't try and look for rationality in short term market trends. For every trade, there's a buyer and seller and both are confident that it's the right time to buy/sell the stock
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Old 9th February 2015, 17:19   #2795
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Saanil View Post
People around me are saying that markets will also fall in coming days due to AAP coming to power in Delhi. Can some one please tell me why would this be a negative for the markets? People reasoning that BJP's charm is fading away. Although I fail to see how does AAP coming into Delhi changes anything, but still wanted to know views of fellow members here.
Nifty went up 9% last month for no significant reason (minor RBI rate cut). So now, its retracing some of its gains. Talking heads on TV will again assign a not so significant reason (AAP win) for this correction too.

Basically, what you are seeing is natural movement of stocks in a bull market. UP, UP, UP, DOWN, DOWN, UP, UP, UP again. So, going by history, what you will see is "market nervousness" till the budget and it should be back to normal again post that.

You could also assign a fundamental reason for current weakness in the markets - terrible PSU bank results and no YoY growth in bottomline for rest of the companies in the current quarter.
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Old 9th February 2015, 22:40   #2796
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So, isn't this week an excellent time to buy stocks? We know that there is going to be a fall.
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Old 9th February 2015, 23:01   #2797
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Quote:
Originally Posted by S_U_N View Post
So, isn't this week an excellent time to buy stocks? We know that there is going to be a fall.
I think we can wait for few more days. I am expecting Nifty to touch 8350. And then a bounce back. When nifty was approaching 9000, I cleared all my profit positions and I am holding cash now. Ready to grab few stocks now.
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Old 10th February 2015, 00:40   #2798
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Default Re: Do you play the stock market

Quote:
Originally Posted by sabsubs View Post
I think we can wait for few more days. I am expecting Nifty to touch 8350. And then a bounce back. When nifty was approaching 9000, I cleared all my profit positions and I am holding cash now. Ready to grab few stocks now.
Same here, Although I do only futures but I cleared everything except a lot of Glenmark as I see it touch around the 800 mark in a few days.

I agree with you about the 8350 mark, that is around the benchmark when buying should be started again.
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Old 10th February 2015, 11:52   #2799
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Any opinions on "Eros International Media Limited" ?
It has been on the rise recently.

Would it be good for short term / long term holding ?
The company does seem to have a strong movie pipeline N and S India.
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Old 10th February 2015, 13:06   #2800
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sabsubs View Post
I think we can wait for few more days. I am expecting Nifty to touch 8350. And then a bounce back. When nifty was approaching 9000, I cleared all my profit positions and I am holding cash now. Ready to grab few stocks now.
AAP's win in Delhi has pushed up the markets. Do you see any fall till February 28th?
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Old 10th February 2015, 14:25   #2801
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Quote:
Originally Posted by S_U_N View Post
AAP's win in Delhi has pushed up the markets. Do you see any fall till February 28th?
I feel it is short covering rally. There would be a fall before budget, might happen in this week itself.
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Old 10th February 2015, 23:43   #2802
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Quote:
Originally Posted by S_U_N View Post
AAP's win in Delhi has pushed up the markets. Do you see any fall till February 28th?
Quote:
Originally Posted by JMaruru View Post
I feel it is short covering rally. There would be a fall before budget, might happen in this week itself.
Even I think this is just short covering. All other technical indicators are trending down. So I am going to wait and watch for couple of more days before initiating any further moves.
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Old 11th February 2015, 11:25   #2803
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Quote:
Originally Posted by S_U_N View Post
AAP's win in Delhi has pushed up the markets. Do you see any fall till February 28th?
Let me post before I forget, I read a news item a few days back which said market tanks on expectation of AAP coming to power!!

All this is plain manure.
There are only two approaches (which are not really mutually exclusive):
1. ride the market. Try not to predict
2. go by fundamentals

Last edited by alpha1 : 11th February 2015 at 11:26.
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Old 16th February 2015, 11:34   #2804
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Guys,

I have got a very basic question. Why is the US thinking of increasing their interest rate? I read that they have stopped printing currency as and when they say better economic data coming out of US (like employment numbers, inflation etc). But what is the justification for increasing interest rates in US?
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Old 16th February 2015, 12:52   #2805
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Saanil View Post
I have got a very basic question. Why is the US thinking of increasing their interest rate? I read that they have stopped printing currency as and when they say better economic data coming out of US (like employment numbers, inflation etc). But what is the justification for increasing interest rates in US?
The need for funds raise in a buoyant economy. The interest rates are one of the tools to control money supply in the system and hence inflation. They calibrate the interest rates based on the current/future economic outlook and the liquidity in the system.
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