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View Poll Results: Stocks as a percentage of my net assets are -
0 - 25% -- I'm like the most conservative Indians. I love FDs. 220 31.88%
26 - 50% -- I have a few stocks. 307 44.49%
51 - 75% -- I'm an active trader. 113 16.38%
76 - 100% -- Hey, I'm an i-banker!!! 50 7.25%
Voters: 690. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 29th April 2015, 11:01   #2866
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Default Re: Do you play the stock market

This is an eye-opener.
http://www.businessinsider.com/gotha...ational-2015-4

So, profit reporting can be manipulated - and that too grossly?

Now I know why stock market is not for the faint-hearted.
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Old 29th April 2015, 11:14   #2867
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Default Re: Do you play the stock market

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Originally Posted by S_U_N View Post
This is an eye-opener.
http://www.businessinsider.com/gotha...ational-2015-4

So, profit reporting can be manipulated - and that too grossly?

Now I know why stock market is not for the faint-hearted.
That's why you should always invest in companies that pay out minimum 15% of their profits as dividends. That is, dividend payout ratio has to be minimum 15%.

Profits can be faked. Dividends cannot.

Just by implementing this simple filter, you can avoid all the Satyams & Enrons of the world.
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Old 29th April 2015, 12:40   #2868
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So, profit reporting can be manipulated - and that too grossly?
You need to read up about Enron.
The auditors often work hand in glove with the promoters / executives to show a better picture than reality.
Oh, add the market regulators also to this list.

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Originally Posted by smartcat View Post
Profits can be faked. Dividends cannot.
What a gem!

Last edited by alpha1 : 29th April 2015 at 12:56.
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Old 29th April 2015, 14:04   #2869
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Originally Posted by S_U_N View Post
Reminds me of the Veritas report on Kingfisher back in 2011, when we all believed everything was hunky-dory with Mallya's plaything. In it, the author said that the airline has 0 value and teetering on the verge of bankruptcy. Mallya was on TV calling the author of the paper all sorts of names and threatening to sue, but we all know how it eventually played out.
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Old 29th April 2015, 14:49   #2870
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I am from a 12 year long International Forex exposure, specialising in Euro/USD and training clients all across the globe throughout this journey. I must have trained over 150 people so far via real class room and virtual class room sessions. I have taken a break from the financial world since 3 years and involving more in the creative photography genres. I want to divide my time between trading and photography now.

My question here is: How easy it would be for me to indulge in the Indian Stocks, which I have never tried ? I am more of a chart based decision maker than on fundamentals. What is a good starting platform and where to look for pointers and analysis ?

Tips highly appreciated.
Hi ! I happened to see your post pretty late. I am a full time professional dealing in stocks and commodities. I suggest ,you download NCFM Equity and Derivative module from nseindia.com and also suggest a book by Ashwini Gujral,on Derivatives. Present Indian market is price driven and fundamentals come secondary.Proper hedging at all times is a must. If you want to make real money on consistent basis,write Index options for third month. Eat the premium and enjoy. Stay away from so called tip providers. They are cheats. And also so called portfolio managers. Develop your own strategy and have proper money management rules. Good luck..
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Old 29th April 2015, 15:30   #2871
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Default Re: Do you play the stock market

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Originally Posted by shajufx View Post
I am from a 12 year long International Forex exposure, specialising in Euro/USD and training clients all across the globe throughout this journey. I must have trained over 150 people so far via real class room and virtual class room sessions. I have taken a break from the financial world since 3 years and involving more in the creative photography genres. I want to divide my time between trading and photography now.

My question here is: How easy it would be for me to indulge in the Indian Stocks, which I have never tried ? I am more of a chart based decision maker than on fundamentals. What is a good starting platform and where to look for pointers and analysis ?

Tips highly appreciated.
For you, I'd recommend trading in MCX/NCDEX commodities & NSE currencies (USD/EUR/JPY against INR pairs).

Since you are used to FX trading, you might find trading in Indian stocks a bit difficult - price movements can be very sharp. The short term trends keep changing frequently, corrections can be deep and the bounce back from a correction can be equally quick. Your FX trading system will not work very well because of whipsaws and seemingly haphazard price movements.

If you still want to go ahead trading Indian stocks, trade with lower volumes for a few months before scaling up.
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Old 29th April 2015, 17:13   #2872
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Default Re: Do you play the stock market

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Originally Posted by S_U_N View Post
This is an eye-opener.
http://www.businessinsider.com/gotha...ational-2015-4

So, profit reporting can be manipulated - and that too grossly?

Now I know why stock market is not for the faint-hearted.
Earnings is over rated. Look at cash flow statement, it cannot be manipulated easily. I do not invest in a company unless there is enough cash flow from operations. Read about what Buffett has to say about great, good, and gruesome businesses in 2007 berkshire annual letter. A great business keep generating cash without much capital expenditure. Cash generated by the business in the long term is ultimately what matters to an investor.

Last edited by PatienceWins : 29th April 2015 at 17:26.
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Old 30th April 2015, 10:14   #2873
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Default Re: Do you play the stock market

Guys anybody got VRL logistics allotment. If yes whats the strategy hold or sell.
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Old 30th April 2015, 11:38   #2874
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Guys anybody got VRL logistics allotment. If yes whats the strategy hold or sell.
Read on NDTV that VRL is expected to settle around Rs.240 but overall future of logistics is bright so if you are in this for the long term, I guess you can wait for it to come down to 230-240 and buy into it. Risk factors could be delay in GST which seems like a probable thing going by the way the opposition is opposing everything in parliament. That could cause some short term volatility in logistics stocks.

I am currently holding AllCargo Logistics.
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Old 30th April 2015, 15:07   #2875
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Guys anybody got VRL logistics allotment. If yes whats the strategy hold or sell.
I usually invest in most of the IPOs where I see listing gains and get out on the listing day.

VRL is good stock to hold but it will not sustain the current level will probably settle around 250 levels.

Would advise you to get out and enter later. I sold one lot today morning @ 295/-
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Old 30th April 2015, 15:42   #2876
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Hi ! I happened to see your post pretty late. I am a full time professional dealing in stocks and commodities.........Develop your own strategy and have proper money management rules. Good luck..
Thank you so much. I will check the links.

Quote:
Originally Posted by smartcat View Post
For you, I'd recommend trading in MCX/NCDEX commodities & NSE currencies (USD/EUR/JPY against INR pairs).
.......... you might find trading in Indian stocks a bit difficult - price movements can be very sharp. The short term trends keep changing frequently, corrections can be deep and the bounce back from a correction can be equally quick. Your FX trading system will not work very well.......
Thanks. I will check the links. FYI: Trading forex is the highest risk in the entire investment line up. I had clients who lost half a million dollars in a week when they ignored my guidelines and experimented their own limited ideas. Sharp drops and lightning fast upmoves are like regular entertainment

I also have some friends who tried forex for an year and later moved to stocks and they say life is peaceful now.

Anyway, I am not giving up forex, will restart trading by June and also spend some quality time learning the stocks. Soon, I will know from my own experience which field is tougher. Learning is fun and I prefer to experiment lifelong!
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Old 3rd May 2015, 10:55   #2877
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Default Re: Do you play the stock market

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Earnings is over rated. Look at cash flow statement, it cannot be manipulated easily. I do not invest in a company unless there is enough cash flow from operations. ...
It is easy to get access to quarterly income statement at Moneycontrol and perhaps a few other sites; but how do you see quarterly cash flow statement and/or balance sheet?

With regards to earnings manipulation, wouldn't avoiding it be possible if you keep an eye on debt load, interest expense growth, inventories (overall working capital) and THEN earnings? Earning being a result of all of the above (apart from cash flows) will be very hard to manipulat without raising hackles all over.
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Old 3rd May 2015, 13:28   #2878
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It is easy to get access to quarterly income statement at Moneycontrol and perhaps a few other sites; but how do you see quarterly cash flow statement and/or balance sheet?

With regards to earnings manipulation, wouldn't avoiding it be possible if you keep an eye on debt load, interest expense growth, inventories (overall working capital) and THEN earnings? Earning being a result of all of the above (apart from cash flows) will be very hard to manipulat without raising hackles all over.
I do not look at quarterly statements. I read annual reports. I usually get an idea of the latest quarterly results from screener.in updates.

It is very easy to manipulate earnings. Accountants use their knowledge not for the welfare of shareholders, but for the welfare of owners who employ them - incentive caused bias. There are many ways to manipulate earnings - recording bogus revenue, recording revenue early, shifting expenses etc. I would recommend you to read the book Financial Shenanigans.

Cash flow statement is much more reliable, especially the cash in bank and cash involved in investing activities.

A company produces value for shareholders by three ways - 1) Earning Growth 2) Capital Efficiency 3) Capital Allocation.

1. The self claimed experts you see around are after short term earnings growth - quarterly guidance and actual figures which are more noise. What really matters is consistent and stable earnings growth over a long period of time (preferably 10 years), which buffett looks for. E.g. Coke, P&G etc. Read Buffetology by Mary Buffett.

2 and 3 are also very important, but you do not see much stress on this. The success of great investors/ businessmen like Buffett, Tom Murphy can mainly be attributed to their stress on capital efficiency and superior capital allocation skills. Read the book outsiders.

If you want to become a good investor, the first thing you need to do is to switch off CNBC and stop listening to all the noise around related to quarterly guidance, estimates, actuals etc. Investing requires more temperament than active management of stocks.

Last edited by PatienceWins : 3rd May 2015 at 13:39.
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Old 3rd May 2015, 15:30   #2879
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Default Re: Do you play the stock market

The thread comes to life every Sunday Anybody holding Suzlon? Is future bright for the company; maybe 1.5-2 years down the line?

-Bhargav
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Old 3rd May 2015, 17:35   #2880
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The thread comes to life every Sunday Anybody holding Suzlon? Is future bright for the company; maybe 1.5-2 years down the line?

-Bhargav
I held Suzlon for over two years and about 2 months ago, made HUGE profit...i mean HUGE. Post selling it off, i haven't seen it spike much. But hold on i suggest. 2 years is a safe period to hold on to. I am hoping Modi govt will support companies like Suzlon more and more gradually.

Cheers!!!
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