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View Poll Results: Stocks as a percentage of my net assets are -
0 - 25% -- I'm like the most conservative Indians. I love FDs. 220 31.88%
26 - 50% -- I have a few stocks. 307 44.49%
51 - 75% -- I'm an active trader. 113 16.38%
76 - 100% -- Hey, I'm an i-banker!!! 50 7.25%
Voters: 690. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 4th November 2008, 14:44   #841
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I have suzlon at an astronomical average price, so I can consider that money gone down the drain for atleast 3 years.
However I have 2 borderline cases
Hindalco(65) and NIITTECH(68).
Are these two worth holding 2? I don't think I will make any money on them unless sensex touches 12-13K, which looks improbable till the elections next year(and will also depend on how stable is next govt, and what are their policies)
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Old 4th November 2008, 15:12   #842
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:( lost a lot in MFs, entered market at the wrong time when SENSEX was 17-18K.
My TCS shares which I still hold are 55% less.
Now when Market was 11-12K, I invested some money and saw market pluging to 9K, Looks like I am very unlucky for market.
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Old 4th November 2008, 15:18   #843
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Quote:
Originally Posted by greatDrive View Post
Looks like I am very unlucky for market.
you are not unlucky for the market, the market's unlucky for you.

Don't lose heart and invest again when it plunges to 7k levels.
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Old 4th November 2008, 15:20   #844
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ravibhat View Post
I am neither expert nor technical analyst.

Based on what I read and studied this is what I understood:

Nifty resistance at 3100 and support seen around 2850. Because of USA elections market is volatile today and downtrend is expected. There is all possibility that it might break 2850 levels in coming days. This is like wait and watch situation.

Regards,

Ravi.
I think you should refrain from making such statements in public forum, given the extremely volatile state of the markets. Lot of people have lost a lot of money and lot of people connected to the markets have killed themselves and their family. This is not the time to joke around and make callous statements.
I have been noticing your statements for some time and analysing them. They are inconsistent, baseless and logic less. Please stop misguiding people. Even if no one takes your advice seriously you should stop offering them, unless you back your advice with understandable logic.
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Old 4th November 2008, 15:25   #845
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sudipto-S-Team View Post
I think you should refrain from making such statements in public forum, given the extremely volatile state of the markets. Lot of people have lost a lot of money and lot of people connected to the markets have killed themselves and their family. This is not the time to joke around and make callous statements.
I have been noticing your statements for some time and analysing them. They are inconsistent, baseless and logic less. Please stop misguiding people. Even if no one takes your advice seriously you should stop offering them, unless you back your advice with understandable logic.
I agree. Lot of people take what is written on the net seriously as they tend to think the person is an expert in the field, and hence one should be careful while making speculative statements.
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Old 4th November 2008, 15:40   #846
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The market has broken your resistance of 3100 by 50 points on the close not even intraday. So what do you have to say now?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ravibhat View Post
I am neither expert nor technical analyst.

Based on what I read and studied this is what I understood:

Nifty resistance at 3100 and support seen around 2850. Because of USA elections market is volatile today and downtrend is expected. There is all possibility that it might break 2850 levels in coming days. This is like wait and watch situation.

Regards,

Ravi.
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Old 4th November 2008, 15:50   #847
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hemanthisgreat View Post
you are not unlucky for the market, the market's unlucky for you.

Don't lose heart and invest again when it plunges to 7k levels.
Hey are you talking about double bottom or saucer ? Can you kindly confirm it please ?
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Old 4th November 2008, 16:05   #848
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Right now the market is directionless.
So why did it rise so much, what happened?
The same old story. People with lots of money(FIIs) can start buying, and push up stocks to new levels, and when they sell, the stock market falls.
In an ideal world, a shares price would be decided by company fundamentals, but now its become a gamble
A forward looking and good financial status company can have a PE as low as 2.5, inspite of being a large cap, and a worthless penny stock can jump for 2rs to 200rs in six months just because somebody pumped a lot of money into it.

If you can somehow predict when will the biggies dump or buy shares you will make money, otherwise you will lose money. There is no logic, no technicality and no fundamentals in this market.
5 days and its up 40%, what happened?
Did inflation come down to 2%
did rupee become 30rs to a dollar.?
Did revenues of companies jump 40%?
Did America gift 100Billion dollars to India?

So right now its all bogus market, and I am trying to get the hang of "riding with the wave"

Of course, long termers can take solace and pick up large caps trading very low, but with the world economy in a tailspin, even thats a scary proposition. After all when giants like SBI can lose 60% of their value, and companies like Suzlon which were shining stars in the private sector can tank 80%, anything is possible.
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Old 4th November 2008, 16:32   #849
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Speaking of Suzlon reminds me of my initial naive days with investments.

Suzlon wasnt listed then, but I heard and read a lot about this great company. So I went searching for the stock and even bought some. Only later did I realise that I bought the wrong stock whose name was similar - Sulzer (Thank god, Sulzer wasn't some penny stock).. . Promptly sold it and surprise, sold it for a small profit !!
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Old 4th November 2008, 16:36   #850
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tsk1979 View Post
So right now its all bogus market, and I am trying to get the hang of "riding with the wave"
The only logic to market is the long term history of the world markets and responses from investors these markets have always had [in such times].

The technical theorems seem to be failing as there is sometimes no logic to human behaviour.

40% rise - the market went crashing down and suddenly everything started looking a good buy, and everybody bought! BUT nothing has changed factually so the moment the stocks no longer look a sweet buys [in a time of global uncertainty] the market stops rising!

The waves work b'coz half of us are with the waves and half against [and no one sees the wave untill its actually over].

[Disclaimer: I take no responsibility of any actions taken based my opinion]

Last edited by SLK : 4th November 2008 at 16:39.
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Old 4th November 2008, 16:43   #851
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TSK
This is the best time to do bargain hunting. What is bargain hunting? According to me bargain is when you get a share for far less than its intrinsic value or worth.
Take the example of Hindalco. Its book value is Rs 127 per share. That is, if theoritically Hindalco's assets were all sold off tomorrow and the money paid to each shareholder, then they would get Rs 127 for each share. And the market price was Rs 65 today. So you are getting it for less than half of its worth.
I bought it at Rs 40 the other day and I intend to keep the contract note forever, so that my children will marvel in another 20 years or so that "wow, baba had bought Hindalco for forty bucks."
I bought Tata Motors using the same logic on the same day for Rs 138.
I was ready to buy more if the prices of these two came down.
You can get the book values of all the shares in magazines like Capital Market or Dalal Street etc. Look at the large companies with a good dividend payment track record and their market price and compare it to their book value. If you see MP is substantially less than BV go for it.
I am not predicting it will go up or down over the next x or y months or years.
I am predicting that my daughter will use them in future.
Also - consider the quality of management of a company before buying its shares. I wouldn't put the Suzlon management as top of the line in league with the Tatas or AV Birla group etc. Nothing personal against them though.
Regards
Sudipto
ps: I have largely backed my opinion with logic. I hope others follow the same.
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Old 4th November 2008, 16:52   #852
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I picked up Suzlon based on the assumption that with depleting oil resources, and carbon credit training, wind energy would be a growing area.
Unfortunately, I did not pay heed to the "dubious" record of Tanti, and could not forsee their blade crack problem.
As a result, more than 40% of my holdings in stocks have vaporized.
Other companies I bet upon are Bharti, and I do not regret that because its currently 20% below my average price, and I think its a company which will do well and grow.
Right now I am waiting for the next "Bottom" so that I can pick up stuff like powergrid and NTPC and such "large cap" companies.
I hope this will help me hedge my losses to some extent!

BTW you are lucky to have TATA motors and HINDALCO at such low prices!
138 for TM, I am kicking myself for not buying. If the value comes down to 160 levels again, I will again take the plunge.
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Old 4th November 2008, 17:33   #853
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Your assumption of the non-conventional energy business model was absolutely right, but when you give a management your own money look at who they are very carefully.
Regarding my purchase - it is pure coincidence that that day was the market's lowest in the recent past. I was ready for the market to fall further and would have bought more. That day the market was falling like the bottom was taken out of it.
Honestly I have no clue how the market will behave over the next few days or next few hours. And it really boils my blood when someone makes sweeping statements about the future price/index movement as if he was a clearvoyant.
But I know when you get a Rs 127 asset for less than Rs 40 it's basement bargain and a bluechip will come out of this lurch at least once in the next ten years and that's when I would quit.
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Old 4th November 2008, 17:53   #854
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sudipto-S-Team View Post
This is the best time to do bargain hunting. What is bargain hunting? According to me bargain is when you get a share for far less than its intrinsic value or worth.

ps: I have largely backed my opinion with logic. I hope others follow the same.
Great ! Thats the way to invest. Also, I have been hearing that there are companies who have cash in their balance sheet which is more than the market cap.

Only analysis I can understand is the quarterly results. I enter the results in the excel sheet and select few companies which have come with good sales, EBITDA, profit, and profit margin. And then play with these stocks to make some money.
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Old 4th November 2008, 23:41   #855
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Hi Guys,

I have been reading all your statements about investing in shares and markets.

My take on the story.

I work in a web company and have seen the rise and fall of the market maybe three of four times since 1998, if I remember correctly. I started investing and trading when I was around 18.I made a lot and lost everything in the end. No regrets,as I learned and never made the same mistake of trading.I also have close friends working in this sector so a little inside knowledge of the working. Having worked in the gambling sector, I see a lot of similarities between the two.

All the stock markets, specially the developing country ones are guided by the herd mentality. You buy and wait for someone to buy from you at a higher price.So it is a game of last man standing (the actual loser). One sees someone making profit in shares,one thinks easy money so lets invest.What they don't see that only around 1% make money at the cost of the 99%.

I only know of only one person who made money from the stock market in my circle, my Income Tax professor in college. His philosophy by at the ipo or at par level and then keep it. He never used to look at the prices daily. he would always look at value.

Only the people with inside knowledge make money most of the time.When I used to trade, the broker used to advice that this share is going to go up as the promoter is playing in the stock. People in Gujarat and Mumbai would know better.The punter who has bought into the sensex at above 20000 levels is not the promoter, but the middle class person who became too greedy.

In our stock market, there are no rules for technicals or fundamentals. So, try not to make too much out of it.

When the market was at 20000, the channels and the advisers used to say that everyone should invest in the market and now if somebody replays their tapes and sue them, what will happen?

If you want too invest, invest for the long term at cheap levels and then forget it for maybe a year. Please do not trade on your hard earned salaried money.The rule should be only that money which is extra, depends on your risk taking ability.When everybody says that it is a boom, the boom has long gone and the bust is happening.

Cheers,

Wolg

PS- Nothing is meant to be taken personally, just a general comment.
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